FAMILIAR FOES — Confirmation hearings kick off this week for President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet nominees, including Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who’s on a glide path to become secretary of state. Among the first crises he’ll face — the political mess in Venezuela, a hemispheric problem spot that he’s already well-acquainted with. Rubio’s Senate confirmation hearing Wednesday comes days after the inauguration of Nicolas Maduro, the Venezuelan strongman who was sworn in Jan. 10 to serve a third six-year term. Maduro’s swearing-in came despite a months-long fight by the Venezuelan opposition, which claimed Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia won the July 28 election in a landslide, according to their own voting tallies. Independent observers, including the Carter Center, have also raised doubts about the legitimacy of Maduro’s victory. The U.S. and several other countries have refused to recognize Maduro’s reelection. As America’s top diplomat, Rubio will not need to be briefed on the state of play. His views were forged in Miami, which has its own foreign policy and serves as the de facto capital of Latin America. It is a Latino-dominated city of exiles, where political shake ups in Latin America can lead to the eruption of local protests. Florida itself is home to the nation’s largest population of Venezuelan Americans. The Cuban American senator and former GOP presidential candidate has been one of the most outspoken voices arguing that both Cuba and Venezuela are dictatorships that should be approached by the U.S. with zero tolerance. In South Florida, there’s a widespread hope that if the regime in Venezuela falls, Cuba would be next. His appointment marks a sign that the Western Hemisphere will be a top priority in Trump’s second term — and that the administration intends to turn the screws on the Maduro regime. During Trump’s first term, Rubio supported the heavy sanctions levied in 2019 by the Treasury Department on Venezuela’s top political leaders and on the state-owned oil company. This “maximum pressure” approach came after then-opposition leader Juan Guaido became acting president under the Venezuelan constitution, arguing Maduro had rigged the prior election and new fair elections had to be held. Trump even hosted Guaido at the White House, after slapping the sanctions on Maduro. Those sanctions remained in place until 2022, when the Biden administration eased them in part in exchange for a Maduro guarantee of free and fair elections — a pledge Maduro later ignored. Rubio was among the first to recognize Gonzalez as Venezuela’s president-elect. Declaring Maduro an illegitimate leader, the senator stated “any negotiations are a continued lifeline to the narco-regime.” At a protest supporting Gonzalez and the opposition on Thursday in Doral — sometimes referred to as “Doral-zuela” for its large and influential Venezuelan American community — Rubio’s appointment was lauded as an opportunity. “Rubio knows very well the situation in Venezuela,” one of the protest organizers said. “It makes us believe that the Trump administration’s posture will be a full-throttled punishment of the Maduro regime, which as of today is a dictatorship.” But the state of play isn’t so cut-and-dried. Cracking down further on the Maduro regime could complicate Trump’s ability to deliver on some key campaign promises, including on immigration and energy. The administration needs Venezuela to begin accepting deportations; Maduro could respond by denying planes repatriating Venezuelan immigrants, which he’s done in the past. While the Trump administration could deport Venezuelan migrants to other countries, it’s not a permanent solution — more Venezuelans will opt to leave the country the longer Maduro stays in power, and a further blow to their economy could accelerate the exodus. On the energy front, restricting export licenses for oil companies like Chevron, or even instituting a total embargo on Venezuelan oil, would cut the U.S. off from the biggest oil reserves in the Western Hemisphere. And the move would alienate the oil industry executives Trump has been courting, potentially driving Venezuela closer to China and Russia and risking the prospect of increasing energy prices in the U.S. Rubio won’t be the only Venezuela hardliner advising the president. Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.), Trump’s pick for national security advisor, introduced the BOLIVAR Act in the House, which banned the U.S. government from doing business with anyone connected to the Maduro regime. In the meantime, hours after Maduro’s Jan. 10 inauguration, the Biden White House announced new sanctions on Maduro and other top government officials, including raising the bounty for their arrest. The outgoing administration also imposed sanctions against the heads of Petróleos de Venezuela S.A., the state-owned oil company and state airline Conviasa. Soon enough, this will be Rubio’s headache. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at abianco@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @_alibianco.
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