Will voters say yes to new fire taxes?

Your afternoon must-read briefing on politics and government in the Golden State
Jan 13, 2025 View in browser
 
POLITICO California Playbook PM Newsletter Header

By Will McCarthy and Emily Schultheis

A worker surveys the damage from the Palisades Fire.

Communities around California voted for local bonds and taxes to support wildfire prevention efforts. | John Locher/AP

DRIVING THE DAY: Gov. Gavin Newsom on Monday expanded a special Trump-resistance legislative session to include billions of dollars in wildfire spending as catastrophic blazes continue to tear through Los Angeles County. (More on this below.)

THE FIRE PREVENTION NEXT TIME — Last November, dozens of fire-fighting measures — from wildfire prevention bonds to stopgap special taxes — appeared on ballots around the state, part of local governments’ response to the previous decade’s large wildfires that leveled entire towns and burned a quarter of the state’s forestland.

Many passed, in both rural communities typically skeptical of new taxes and spending and dense urban areas where wildfire has not always been a leading public-safety concern. In Los Angeles County, voters approved Measure E, which by generating $150 million per year to raise equipment and staffing levels for county firefighters, now “couldn’t be more relevant,” as County Supervisor Kathryn Barger put it last week.

The first test of whether those fires will be felt at ballots elsewhere in the state comes in a rural Central Valley community 250 miles north of the Pacific Palisades. In March, voters in Merced County’s Dos Palos will decide on a half-cent sales tax to bolster the city’s heavily underfunded fire department.

“There is more and more a sense of urgency,” said Oakland city councilmember Janani Ramachandran, who authored Measure MM, which last year established a new tax to prepare for and combat fires in the wooded hillsides above the city’s core. “I think a lot of people are starting to understand that wildfire danger is real. But there's always a hesitation to give the city the money to do something about it.”

That urgency was reflected beyond the rural stretches of Northern California or the Sierra Nevada where the threat of fire has been a longstanding part of the landscape. Santa Cruz enacted a countywide parcel parcel tax at the ballot to fund wildfire protection projects. In Livingston, voters overwhelmingly supported a 1 percent transaction and use tax that will give the small Merced County burg its first city-run firehouse.

“There’s no part of the state that’s been untouched by it,” said Robb Korinke, a consultant who specializes in local ballot measure campaigns. “Fire concerns are even outpacing homelessness in many of these areas.”

Forward-looking, fire prevention initiatives on the local ballot are the exception rather than the rule, according to Korinke. Most fire taxes end up on the ballot, he said, as a way to fund existing levels of service at a time when emergency services can take up as much as half a city’s budget and climate change threatens ever-greater catastrophe.

“Municipalities are in fiscal distress,” Korinke said. “Where else is it going to come from?”

Such is the case in Merced County, where voters last November failed to approve Measure R, which would have increased county sales taxes to fund fire response. (The measure won majority support but fell short of the two-thirds necessary to pass a special tax.) County officials responded by closing at least one fire station and consolidating others.

Dos Palos faces the closure of the only fire department within its city limits. The next closest department, run by Cal Fire, is over 5 miles away. (Livingston is using its new tax revenue to keep the county-run fire department open while the city begins financing its own fire service.)

In response, Dos Palos’ city council drafted a city sales tax increase that would deliver an estimated $200,000 annual increase to the fire department and stave off the county’s plans to close it in July. Two-thirds of voters will have to back Measure S to enact the tax increase, which will appear as the sole item on a March 4 special-election ballot.

“If there's another fire somewhere else, will we get priority? Nobody knows the answer to that,” said Katy Miller Reed, the recently sworn in mayor of Dos Palos.

Voters have not always been persuaded by such arguments, especially if it requires raising their own taxes. In the San Diego-area city Santee, voters shot down a similar sales tax measure to the one currently being proposed in Dos Palos in November. Miller Reed hopes the news from Los Angeles will remind voters what fire can do to a city.

“That could totally happen to us,” said Miller Reed. “If we want to ensure that our town has priority, we are going to have to pay for it.”

Welcome to Ballot Measure Weekly, a special edition of Playbook PM focused on California’s lively realm of ballot measure campaigns. With the fires raging in Los Angeles, we’re doing things a bit differently this week. Drop us a line at eschultheis@politico.com and wmccarthy@politico.com, or find us on X — @emilyrs and @wrmccart.

TOP OF THE TICKET

Three ballot measures — past and future, certain and possible — pushed to front of mind this week due to the fires.

1. PROP 4 (2024): Newsom’s newly unveiled budget plan proposes tapping into the $10 billion climate bond voters approved in November to help fight wildfires. His 2025 proposal allocates $325 million of the Prop 4 funds for wildfire prevention and forest rehabilitation projects, including $82 million for the state’s forest health program and local-level fire prevention grants.

2. PG&E OVERSIGHT (2026?): After legislative efforts to supervise PG&E’s spending on wildfire mitigation failed last spring, Utility Reform Network director Mark Toney said he was “stunned by the power and influence that PG&E has regained in the state legislature.” Toney says an effort to deliver oversight via initiative is possible, a cause that could get a boost from speculation that power lines may have sparked some of L.A.’s blazes, although he noted his consumer advocacy organization would be unlikely to take a campaign leadership role.

3. PROP 6 (2024): Hundreds of incarcerated people on the front lines of fighting L.A.’s wildfires have put November’s failed constitutional amendment to ban forced prison labor back on the front pages. Unlike many jobs in the prison system, firefighting is voluntary — but those who do it are paid a fraction of the wages non-incarcerated firefighters get. The renewed focus on prison labor could animate a movement still grappling with Prop 6’s loss at the ballot.

OFF THE BALLOT

Gavin Newsom tours the downtown business district of Pacific Palisades with smoke clouds behind him.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom tours the downtown business district of Pacific Palisades as the Palisades Fire continues to burn on Jan. 8, 2025, in Los Angeles, California. | Eric Thayer/Getty Images

NEWSOM EXPANDS SPECIAL SESSION: Newsom’s move to add wildfire funding to the Legislature’s special session currently underway, endorsed by Democratic legislative leaders, came as Republicans knocked them for striking a $50 million deal to beef up state and local legal defenses against the incoming White House amid what may be the costliest fires in U.S. history.

The governor and legislative leaders are proposing at least $2.5 billion to fight wildfires, including fast-tracking $1 billion in state emergency aid and setting aside $1.5 billion extra for wildfire preparedness programs.

Including disaster aid in a special session that originally focused only on resisting Donald Trump offers Democrats another opportunity to highlight the president-elect’s threats to withhold federal relief from California. Newsom has repeatedly warned that Trump could hinder the state’s ability to respond to fires, earthquakes and floods, though he did not echo that messaging in his announcement Monday.

“California is organizing a Marshall Plan to help Los Angeles rebuild faster and stronger — including billions in new and accelerated state funding so we can move faster to deliver for the thousands who’ve lost their homes and livelihoods in these firestorms," Newsom said Monday. "To the people of Los Angeles: We have your back.” — Blake Jones

BONTA’S BILL OF AI RIGHTS: Did you know you have new rights? Attorney General Rob Bonta says you do, thanks to recent state laws cracking down on artificial intelligence, and he made sure businesses and health care companies remember that with two legal notices sent from his office today.

The advisories aren't much more than a recap of new state regulations limiting how companies and political groups can use AI tools like deepfakes, which took effect on Jan. 1. But it's a sign that Bonta's office is committed to chasing down those who break the rules, particularly any health organizations that use AI to undermine patient privacy or deny care.

“AI might be changing, innovating, and evolving quickly, but the fifth largest economy in the world is not the wild west," Bonta said in a statement today. — Tyler Katzenberger

NOT RUNNING SO FAST: The cynics among Sacramento’s political class may see Bonta’s preparations to battle Trump as evidence he is angling to seek higher office. Bonta dismissed that idea at an event with the Sacramento Press Club this afternoon, insisting he has not yet decided to run for governor in 2026 and can’t say when he’ll be making that decision.

“I don’t know if what I’m doing is helping [me run] for Governor or not,” Bonta said.

“Maybe some people hate it and it’s crushing any chances for future political position, or maybe some people like it. I don’t know. I’m not thinking about that.”

For him, Trump’s return to office is a personal threat as much as a political one, Bonta said. He recounted that his daughter married her wife, a Brazilian national, last Sunday to shore up their rights before the administration changes hands.

“They're wrestling with marriage equality and immigration in the time of Trump, and what that means for them and their future,” Bonta said. — Rachel Bluth

THAT TIME VOTERS ...

… FOUGHT FIRE: Californians have considered ballot measures on a wide variety of fire-related questions, including to:

Exempt fire-insurance companies from taxes (1924, failed) ... Ensure fire, police and emergency medical services get priority in local budgeting (1979, did not qualify) ... Set fire-safety standards for cigarettes and little cigars (1983, did not qualify) ... Fund fire protection via revenue from 25-cent-per-pack tobacco tax (1988, passed) ... Approve $50 million in new funding for the Department of Forestry and Fire Prevention as part of a $4 billion environmental bond issue (2018, passed) … Change property tax regulations and direct most of the revenue from those changes to fire protection services (2020, passed) … Approve a $5.51 billion bond for wildfire prevention, water infrastructure, and climate-related projects (2020, did not qualify) … And increase the personal income tax on those earning more than $2 million, with 20 percent of the revenue going toward wildfire prevention and suppression programs (2022, failed).

WHAT WE'RE READING TODAY

— A beloved hiking trail has become the center of an investigation into the Palisades fire origins. (Los Angeles Times)

— Speaker Mike Johnson confirmed there has “been some discussion” about tying California wildfire aid to a debt limit increase in Congress. (POLITICO)

— The U.S. Supreme Court declined to block lawsuits from California and other progressive states that seek billions of dollars in damages from oil companies for their role in the effects of climate change. (POLITICO/E&E News)

AROUND THE STATE

— Nine people have been charged with looting in the Palisades and Eaton fire evacuation zones, and another person has been charged with arson in Azusa (for an incident unrelated to the major fires). (FOX 11)

— What’s behind the dramatic difference in rainfall for Northern and Southern California this winter? (San Francisco Chronicle)

— Because the fires are ongoing, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has delayed its announcement of this year’s Oscar nominations until Jan. 23. (Los Angeles Times)

 

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