Venezuela is now Trump’s problem to solve

From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy.

Jan 10, 2025 View in browser   By Eric Bazail-Eimil and Robbie Gramer President Nicolas Maduro was sworn in today in a ceremony in Caracas for a third term. | Matias Delacroix/AP With help from Phelim Kine, Daniel Lippman and Maggie Miller Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric The Biden administration’s efforts to secure a peaceful and democratic transition of power in Venezuela have failed for now. And it’s unclear how exactly President-elect DONALD TRUMP will handle the raging political crisis in the South American petrostate. President NICOLÁS MADURO was sworn in today in a ceremony in Caracas for a third term. But Maduro’s purported electoral win in July has been fiercely contested by the opposition, which has published precinct-level results showing that opponent EDMUNDO GONZÁLEZ URRUTIA defeated Maduro handily. The Biden administration tried to rally regional players, including Colombia, Brazil and Mexico, to pressure Maduro to cede power, but those efforts failed, especially after Mexico City and Bogotá opted to take more muted postures towards the Maduro government’s election interference. Sanctions unveiled today once again stopped short of what many U.S. lawmakers had hoped for. RYAN BERG, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, argued it’s increasingly unlikely that few things short of new oil sanctions will put enough pressure on Maduro and his allies to cede power. “This is Trump’s problem now,” Berg said. “The Biden folks had six months to come up with a creative solution after the opposition surprised everyone and Maduro was caught with his hand in the cookie jar.” Trump is no friend to Maduro. The first Trump administration pursued a policy of “maximum pressure” against Maduro and the country’s lucrative oil and gas sector. Many of the chief architects and supporters of that policy, namely special envoy for Latin America MAURICIO CLAVER-CARONE and Florida Sen. MARCO RUBIO, Trump’s pick to be secretary of State, are entering the second Trump administration and will likely push for a similar approach to Caracas. But Trump has voiced an interest in deporting Venezuelan migrants who have entered the United States illegally, and to do so could possibly require him to cut deals with Maduro. Maduro also has several Americans in his custody that he seems poised to use as a bargaining chip. Then there’s the fact that a U.S. oil major, Chevron, wants to keep its oil production operations open in Venezuela, arguing that doing so boosts U.S. energy security and prevents other adversaries such as Russia and China from getting its hands on Venezuela’s oil supply. That’s an argument that could theoretically find traction in some corners of a second Trump administration. “There are people in the Trump universe who advocate keeping those [Chevron] licenses open, but you also have real Venezuela hawks in the Trump national security apparatus,” said one former Trump administration official, who was granted anonymity to discuss the matter candidly. “It’s going to be more complicated than the first Trump term, but it’s a significant debate.” The Trump transition team did not respond to a request for comment. For now, the incoming Trump administration seems to be towing a hawkish line on Venezuela. Incoming national security adviser Rep. MIKE WALTZ of Florida met with González during his visit to Washington and Trump praised Machado and González in a Thursday night Truth Social post. The Inbox FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — NSC DEPARTURE: DAVID SHIMER, a top White House aide overseeing Ukraine and Russia policy, is departing his post on Monday after four years on the National Security Council, two Biden administration officials told NatSec Daily. (We granted them anonymity to discuss internal personnel matters.) Shimer’s departure is unsurprising as the administration prepares to hand the reins over to Trump’s team — he’s a political appointee — but it still raises concern among some officials over how much institutional knowledge on Ukraine policy will be left in place when Trump takes office. Waltz, Trump’s pick to be national security adviser, has said detailees from other agencies assigned to the NSC will resign on Day One. Another senior career official who helped run Ukraine-Russia defense policy, LAURA COOPER, also left her Pentagon post ahead of Trump’s return to office. Shimer, currently the director for eastern Europe and Ukraine, is notably one of the only NSC officials still in the administration who was working on Russia-Ukraine issues before Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In his role, Shimer played a key role in crafting the release of U.S. intelligence on Russia’s plans before the invasion and on sending U.S. military aid to Ukraine, working closely with national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN. The National Security Council did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Shimer declined to comment. GOING AFTER RUSSIAN OIL: While the Biden administration hesitates to impose new sanctions against Venezuelan oil and gas exports, they’re moving full steam ahead on restrictions against Russia’s energy sector. As our colleague MICHAEL STRATFORD writes (for Pros!), the U.S. government announced a spate of restrictions against Russian oil majors and its vast “black fleet” of oil tankers that has allowed it to evade international sanctions. If fully enforced, it could deprive Russia of billions of dollars of revenue each month to feed its war machine in Ukraine — though of course it comes just days before President JOE BIDEN leaves office and Trump takes the White House. “With today’s sanctions, we are ratcheting up the sanctions risk associated with Russia’s oil trade, including shipping and financial facilitation in support of Russia’s oil exports,” Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN said in a statement. IC SPLITS ON HAVANA SYNDROME: A 2023 intelligence community report that ruled that foreign governments aren’t responsible for unexplained health incidents known as Havana Syndrome is under fire, as our colleague PHELIM KINE writes in. A follow-up to that report released Friday by the Office of the Director for National Intelligence reveals that two of seven intelligence agencies have broken with the 2023 consensus by concluding that there’s an ”even chance” that some unidentified countries may have the capability to develop weaponry that could inflict Havana Syndrome. The name refers to a pattern of symptoms that first emerged among staff at the U.S. embassy in Havana in 2016 and have affected more than 1,000 government employees over the past several years. ODNI said the dissenting views of the two agencies — which it declined to identify — don’t mean that such weaponry actually exists and has been deployed anywhere. Meanwhile the National Security Council released a statement Friday describing “a shift in key judgements by some intelligence components” about Havana Syndrome. It didn’t provide details, but the Miami Herald reported that NSC members including its coordinator for intelligence and defense policy, MAHER BITAR, told a group of Havana Syndrome sufferers in November that some of the 2023 report’s conclusions “were no longer valid.” That aligns with what we’ve heard from current State Department official MARK LENZI, who sustained traumatic brain injuries while on assignment in Guangzhou, China, in late 2017. “Behind closed doors, fellow U.S. government personnel and leaders have acknowledged to me that my families' injuries were caused by a Russian pulsed microwave weapon,” Lenzi told NatSec Daily. PATENT(LY) OBVIOUS? Chinese ships have been widely suspected of cutting key undersea communications cables off the coast of Taiwan, Norway and the Baltic Sea in recent months. Now there’s more evidence to point the finger at Beijing. Newsweek’s DIDI KIRSTEN TATLOW reviewed Chinese-language patent applications and found engineers in China have invented devices for ships to cut undersea cables, including a "dragging type submarine cable cutting device" patent concocted by engineers at Lishui University in China’s coastal Zhejiang province in 2020. Hmm. ARCTIC ANXIETIES: Is Greenland the (pun very much intended) tip of the MAGA iceberg? Across the Arctic region, there are anxieties about where Trump will set his sights next after musing about acquiring Greenland from Denmark, as our colleague KETRIN JOCHECOVÁ reports. Norway, another slightly jittery NATO ally, sought to reassure its public about its own Arctic holdings — the large (and strategically located) Svalbard archipelago. “Svalbard is Norway, and Svalbard is safe,” Norwegian Prime Minister JONAS GAHR STØRE said Thursday. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we’re featuring PAUL STARES, director of the Center for Preventive Action at the Council on Foreign Relations. Though he’s from across the pond, Paul says he enjoys a nice American beer. “I’ve been in the States long enough to see how American beers have improved and in some respects they’re superior to European beers,” he said. (Sidebar: Robbie wholeheartedly agrees, and looks forward to rebutting the coming hate mail from our POLITICO colleagues in Europe.) But he also said he likes going the non-alcoholic route, especially in light of the U.S. surgeon general’s fresh warnings about health risks of consuming alcohol. “In keeping with the surgeon general’s advisory, I’m going to say now that I’ve loved some of these new non-alcoholic beers,” he said. Athletic Brewing Co.’s nonalcoholic IPAs is top of mind: “I’ll go on record and say that’s my favorite beer at the moment.” So cheers to that and cheers to your health, Paul! IT’S FRIDAY! WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s global security team: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, and @johnnysaks130 Transition 2024 HOOK, LINE, SINKER: BRIAN HOOK, Trump’s former top Iran hand, is no longer involved in the State Department transition, five people familiar with the transition told our own DANIEL LIPPMAN and Robbie. Multiple outlets, including POLITICO, reported in early November that Hook had been set to lead the transition team for Foggy Bottom. But he stopped being involved shortly after the election, according to two of the people. They, like others, were granted anonymity to discuss internal transition matters. A member of the Trump transition team said that Trump transition leader HOWARD LUTNICK asked Hook to help out on pre-election transition planning months before the election and Hook agreed to help but told Lutnick and other senior transition officials that he planned to stay at Cerberus Capital Management after the election. “Brian was asked to handle pre-election transition planning for State, which was very helpful to us,” the person said. “Once Rubio was nominated, Brian handed off his work to Rubio’s team and he continued working at Cerberus as planned.” One person familiar with the transition said that Hook’s interview on CNN International on Nov. 10 hit some inside the transition as him promoting himself. Others close to Trump liked the interview for praising Trump’s foreign policy accomplishments, according to another person familiar with the matter. The person involved in the transition said Hook’s TV interview was unrelated to him no longer working on the transition and that he had wrapped up his work before it. Hook, a former senior State official in the first Trump administration, was a key architect of Trump’s so-called maximum pressure strategy on Iran. Hook declined to comment and a spokesperson for the transition didn’t respond to a request for comment. Keystrokes CFIUS GETS BREACHED: The Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S., which studies whether foreign investments pose national security risks, was breached as part of the recent Chinese government-linked hack of the Treasury Department, CNN reported today. As our own MAGGIE MILLER writes in, the breach is the latest in a string of major compromises of U.S. critical infrastructure and organizations in recent months by Chinese hackers that have raised tensions between Beijing and Washington. The Treasury Department breach, disclosed by the agency last month, involved Chinese state-sponsored hackers breaching agency workstations by compromising a third party service that provided security. A Senate aide, who was granted anonymity due to the sensitivity of the ongoing investigation, told Maggie that it was “news” to the Senate Banking Committee on Friday that CFIUS had been affected, and that it was now “tracking the CFIUS breach.” The aide said the committee has not yet received a briefing from the Treasury Department on the full breach, despite Committee Chair TIM SCOTT's (R-S.C.) request for one by Friday. A spokesperson for the National Security Council declined to comment on the hack, referring Maggie to the Treasury Department and the FBI. Neither agency responded to requests for comment. A spokesperson for the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency — which is investigating the hack and said earlier this week that no other agencies were affected beyond the ones already reported — also declined to comment. The Complex HICKS: U.S. MILITARY AI BEATS BEIJING’S: The U.S. is beating China in the development and roll-out of artificial intelligence in weapons systems, Deputy Defense Secretary KATHLEEN HICKS said today at a School for Advanced International Studies event in Washington. The Pentagon is “outpacing China’s military in the rapid, responsible use of data and AI… we can sense, make sense, and act faster, while still maintaining human judgment and responsibility over the use of force,” Hicks said. The U.S. emphasis on human control differs from that of the Chinese military where AI is “superseding human control over an expanding array of missions,” Hicks added. Biden and China’s leader XI JINPING agreed in November to avoid giving artificial intelligence control of nuclear weapons systems. Broadsides TIKTOK AT SCOTUS: The Supreme Court is weighing whether to uphold or strike down a law that would ban TikTok in the United States on national security grounds, as our colleagues CHRISTINE MUI and JOSH GERSTEIN report. The high-stakes ruling for the Chinese-owned social media giant comes after both Republican and Democratic politicians raised concerns over its data collection practices and how it allegedly manipulates content on the platform. Over on Capitol Hill, there’s no love lost between TikTok and national security hawks, as Sen. MARK WARNER (D-Va.), the chair of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, makes clear. “Allowing one of our most formidable adversaries to access the data of millions of Americans clearly doesn’t make sense. That’s why it’s been a thoroughly bipartisan priority. I hope our national security law stands,” he said on X. Transitions — JONATHAN LENZNER is now a partner in Fenwick’s white-collar defense and investigations practice. He most recently was chief of staff to the FBI director. — NIC ADAMS is now SVP and partner at Washington Office. He most recently was a professional staff member on the Senate Intelligence Committee and senior adviser to Sen. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas). What to Read — MATTHEW BOYLE, Breitbart News: Mike Waltz to clean out deep-staters from national security council: ‘We’re taking resignations at 12:01’ on January 20 — BEN SCHRECKINGER, POLITICO Magazine: The 51st state? Greenlanders brace, plot and fret ahead of Trump’s return — RISHI IYENGAR, Foreign Policy: Mark Zuckerberg’s geopolitical free speech gambit Monday Today — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: “The Department of the Air Force in 2050" with Air Force Secretary FRANK KENDALL — Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 10 a.m.: Tunnel vision: U.S.-Israel cooperation and the future of underground warfare — Wilson Center, 10 a.m.:  Combating antisemitism as a global threat — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 12 p.m.: A book discussion on "Putin's Revenge: Why Russia Invaded Ukraine." — Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 12 p.m.: Lebanon ceasefire: Status and prospects of the Israel-Hezbollah truce Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who should not be inaugurated for a third term as editor of this newsletter. Thanks to our producer, Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing, who handily defeated Heidi in the elections.  CORRECTION: Thursday’s newsletter misidentified Greenlandic MP Pipaluk Lynge.   Follow us on Twitter Robbie Gramer @RobbieGramer Eric Bazail-Eimil @ebazaileimil   Follow us

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