| | | | |  | | By Mickey Djuric, Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Mike Blanchfield with Philippe J. Fournier | Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Ottawa Playbook | Follow Politico Canada Happy Friday, let’s get to it: → ANITA ANAND talks Trump, tariffs and trade barriers. → Your predictions for the year ahead. → Why “Captain Canada” is ready to rumble. |  | PLAYBOOK'S ONE-ON-ONE | | | 
Anita Anand in 2022, when she served as Canada's defense minister. | Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP | ‘RETALIATE IF NECESSARY’ — ANITA ANAND has a workaround plan. “We can be delivering billions of dollars back to Canadian businesses without going through DONALD TRUMP at all," the new minister of internal trade told POLITICO this week. "Simply by ensuring that we are removing interprovincial barriers to trade and commerce." With a tariff announcement expected — maybe, we'll see — from the U.S. president in the days ahead, Anand is heading to Washington to meet with her U.S. transport counterpart, SEAN DUFFY, once he’s confirmed. — The week that was: Anand attended the Cabinet retreat, met with premiers Wednesday to discuss interprovincial trade barriers and called an emergency meeting for next week with provincial trade ministers to discuss freeing up billions for business. In an office on Sparks Street, Anand spoke to Playbook this week about counter-tariffs, trade tactics and her new portfolio. She also spoke about CHRYSTIA FREELAND’s “shocking” exit. Anand discussed the Conservative Party’s attacks on diversity, equity and inclusion programs, ideas she championed as defense minister and Treasury Board president. Getting rid of government DEI programs would be “misguided” and not what the country “deserves,” Anand said. And she talked about her own plans to leave politics. “I love [politics]!” Anand told Playbook. “I always said I would be going back to academia, and I will say that I love working, but the focus shouldn’t be on me right now.” Some highlights from our conversation, edited for brevity: — On using Canadian energy as a bargaining chip: “We won’t escalate but we will retaliate if necessary. We will be judicious at all times, and I think we all need to remember that Canada has distinct advantages in this negotiation.” — Counter-tariffs: “It will certainly be comprehensive across sectors, and ensuring that we are utilizing the fact that America's dependence on Canada's natural resources is one of the key tools in our toolbox.” — Zoning in on U.S. supply chains: “During Covid — we were in the very early days of 2020 — we were hit with the possibility that the U.S. was not going to allow 3M masks to leave the U.S. to come into Canada even though we had a contract for monthly delivery. We went back to the Trump administration, and we pointed out in the production of these masks there are Canadian raw materials. We were able to get those 3M masks into Canada.” — Dismantling DEI: “We need to ensure that the voices of every Canadian are truly represented in our public institutions, hospitals, government, universities. These are the focal points of public services for our country. They need to reflect Canadians at large. So eradicating policies, regardless of what you want to call them, that ensure there is adequate representation is misguided. It is not representative of our country and what our country deserves.” — On Freeland’s exit: “It is still shocking. I had worked in government since 2019, I have never had a day like that. And I had worked very closely with the deputy prime minister and finance minister, as had we all. So it was a very, very surprising day.” — On staying neutral in the race: “Right now my focus is on the unity of our caucus. My value added is to ensure that wherever possible I'm bringing people together.” — On the next Liberal leader: “Whoever becomes the leader of the Liberal Party needs to ensure that they are representing not factions of our society, but our society at large. That is not easy in a multifaceted country like ours. But it is of the utmost importance for any leader to ensure that they are speaking to everyone and not only those who support them.” | | | | Power shifts, razor-thin margins, and a high-stakes agenda. We’ve transformed our coverage—more reporters, more timely insights, and unmatched policy scoops. From leadership offices to committee rooms, caucus meetings, and beyond, our expert reporting keeps you ahead of the decisions that matter. Subscribe to our Inside Congress newsletter today. | | | | | | | FROM THE DESK OF 338CANADA | | | 
Ontario Premier Doug Ford at a meeting of the premiers last month in Toronto. | AFP via Getty Images | POLL POSITION — With favorable polls and full control over Ontario's election calendar, DOUG FORD's Progressives Conservatives may not get a better opportunity to secure a third majority mandate at Queen's Park. — The numbers: A new Léger poll fielded last week gives Ford's PCs a commanding 24-point lead over the Ontario Liberals (46 percent to 22 percent). That's the Blue Team's best public poll since the 2022 election — and from a top-rated firm. The PCs lead in every region — including Metro Toronto, where BONNIE CROMBIE's Liberals hope to make gains and to respectability following crushing losses in 2018 and 2022. MARIT STILES' NDP sits third with 19 percent of province-wide support. — Captain Canada in command: Léger's numbers also show Ford enjoying 47 percent of favorable impressions among Ontario voters, significantly higher than Crombie's 28 percent or Stiles' 25 percent. Ford also had the highest unfavorable impressions — 48 percent — among the main party leaders. Only 49 percent of voters hold a positive or negative impression of Stiles. Half of respondents don't know enough about her to hold a clear impression — not an encouraging data point for the leader of the Official Opposition. — Seats over everything: The updated 338Canada Ontario projection puts the PCs at 99 seats on average out of 124 seats in the Legislature. Opposition parties are fighting for crumbs: 13 seats on average for the NDP, nine for the Liberals and a pair for the Greens. The PCs are favored to complete a near-sweep of the province's rural regions, as well as shut out their rivals in every corner of the GTA. — Chasing history: Should those numbers hold, Ford would become the first Ontario premier to win three-straight majorities since LESLIE FROST in 1959.
| | Where the leaders are | |
— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in the National Capital Region with no public-facing events.
— Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY is traveling to Ottawa and has no public events today. — Playbook hasn't seen itineraries for Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE, Bloc Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET or NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH. | | WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN | |
Up: Demand for Ottawa-Washington flights as tariff threats edge closer — and politicians and lobbyists desperately make Canada's case in D.C.
Down: Odds of a 2026 provincial election in Ontario as DOUG FORD will reportedly call a snap winter election slated for Feb. 27.
| | For your radar | | | 
Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne has asked Amazon to reconsider its decision. | Julie Glassberg/POLITICO | AMAZON REVIEW — Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE projects as a happy guy in public. His nickname is “Frankie Bubbles.” But he says that changed this week when he got on the horn with Amazon Canada. The company has announced plans to cease operations in Quebec, throwing about 1,700 people out of work — a move Champagne says came without warning. “I know a lot of the CEOs of multinationals,” he told Playbook. “When they intend to do something that would have an impact on workers, on Canadian industry, they usually give us a heads up so we can discuss, we can review.” — So, how angry was he? “I would say, a 7.5 to an 8.5, if not a 9,” he said. — Company response: Amazon spokesman Steve Kelly told POLITICO: “When our team makes operational decisions like this broadly — employees are generally the first group to know followed by other stakeholders.” He reshared the company’s statement, which explained that returning to a third-party delivery model will provide “the same great service and even more savings.” The statement notes that impacted employees will receive a package that includes up to 14 weeks’ pay. — Postscript: Champagne wrote to the CEO of Amazon last evening. “This is not the way business is done in Canada,” he said. |
YOUR BEST GUESSES — Last week, amid all the noise of tariff threats and nascent Liberal leadership campaigns, we collected armchair predictions of nearly 150 Playbook prognosticators.
Here's how our reader hivemind sees the year shaping up: — When will the general election be held? Sixty-four percent picked May, with another 19 percent eyeing June. Nearly 8 percent sense an April vote — which means the election would be called before Parliament is scheduled to return. — Will the NDP support the government on at least one confidence motion when Parliament returns from prorogation in March? Sixty-eight percent said New Democrats would vote against the government at any opportunity. — Who will lead the Liberals into the general election? Seventy-six percent said MARK CARNEY would triumph in the party leadership race. Twenty percent picked CHRYSTIA FREELAND. — Will the Conservative share of the vote in the general election be over/under 41.5 percent? A slim majority of 53 percent took the over on PIERRE POILIEVRE's party. — Will the Liberal share of the vote in the general election be over/under 24.5 percent? Almost exactly the same proportion of prognosticators took the over on the Liberals headed up by a new leader. — Who will form the Official Opposition immediately after the election? A razor-thin majority of 51 percent picked the Liberals. Another 37 percent took the Bloc Québécois. Nine readers felt optimistic about the NDP. Seven more said the CPC would finish second. — Which party leaders will still have their jobs at the end of 2025? More than 90 percent see Poilievre and Bloc Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET keeping their gigs. Seventy percent say Trudeau's successor will stay on, and slightly fewer say ELIZABETH MAY and MAXIME BERNIER will still be leaders. Only one in five predicts JAGMEET SINGH will lead New Democrats into 2026. — Who will lead the Liberals at the end of 2025? Only 61 percent see Carney in the role, with Freeland following at nearly 15 percent. DOMINIC LEBLANC trails at 8 percent, ahead of KARINA GOULD at 5 percent. — Will DONALD TRUMP apply 25 percent tariffs on all Canadian imports? Only a bare majority — 52.82 percent — see the president walking back his pledge, at least to some extent. Another 47.18 percent see Trump following through. — Will a Canadian team win the Stanley Cup? Seventy-nine percent said no. | | LEADERSHIP RACE | |
THE CONTESTANTS — CHANDRA AYRA, JAIME BATTISTE, FRANK BAYLIS, MARK CARNEY, RUBY DHALLA, CHRYSTIA FREELAND and KARINA GOULD have sent in their nomination papers by the required deadline.
Their applications must now be approved by the Liberal Party and Elections Canada before they become official candidates. — Where to next: Party renewal plans have been put out by both Freeland and Gould. — The latest: Energy Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON and Labor Minister STEVE MACKINNON endorsed Carney on Thursday. International Development Minister AHMED HUSSEN and Justice Minister ARIF VIRANI endorsed Freeland. — Endorsement holdouts: On Thursday afternoon, Public Safety Minister DAVID MCGUINTY said he was focused on border security. On Thursday evening, he showed up to Carney’s campaign event at Queen Street Fare alongside his brother, former Ontario Premier DALTON MCGUINTY. — Tough choices: Earlier this week, Finance Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC told Playbook he’ll “probably” endorse someone but wouldn’t say who he’s leaning toward. “A number of the people running have been friends of mine for some time and I lived a number of leadership contests in the party. They’re tough moments because you’re choosing often between friends. You can’t hide behind an ideology or a political platform. It’s sort of, ‘I prefer you over you.’ So it’s difficult. It’s difficult for people running. It’s difficult for people deciding,” LeBlanc told Playbook. “But at the end of the day, the sun comes up in the morning and it sets in the evening, and flowers come out in the spring, and these things all work themselves out,” he added. | | MEDIA ROOM | |
— From our colleagues in Europe: WHO freezes hiring, restricts travel after US withdrawal.
— From EVAN DYER of CBC News: Trump's threats reveal the trouble with Canada's pipelines running through the U.S. — From the NYT’s ANA SWANSON: Trump starts countdown toward tariffs on America’s largest trading partners. — The Star asks: Why don’t we trade with more countries? — National Post's STEPHANIE TAYLOR reports that young Liberals have a plan to win the youth vote back from PIERRE POILIEVRE. — The Spectator gives Poilievre the profile treatment from a Brit's-eye view. | | PLAYBOOKERS | |
Birthdays: HBD to former Sen. CONSIGLIO DI NINO, as well as to former NDP MP ALEX ATAMANENKO (80!).
Saturday: Birthday twins ANTHONY HOUSEFATHER and YASIR NAQVI, Tory MP SCOTT REID, former NDP MP MARIE-CLAUDE MORIN (40!), science journalist BOB MCDONALD and SAMANTHA PECK of NOVA Chemicals. Sunday: Former B.C. Minister for Indigenous Relations MURRAY RANKIN, former NDP MP CID SAMSON, DYLAN HELLWIG of Food, Health and Consumer Products of Canada, and journalist DAVID MOSCROP. Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send deets. Movers and shakers: MYAH TOMASI started a new role as director of communications to Democratic Institutions Minister RUBY SAHOTA. MOLLIE JOHNSON, deputy secretary to the Cabinet for plans and consultations, takes on a concurrent role at the Privy Council Office as deputy secretary for clean growth. Kelowna radio host TOBY TANNAS is seeking the Conservative nomination in Vernon-Lake Country-Monashee riding. Tannas joins a packed field of hopefuls that includes business owner RACHEL ENNS, city councilor TERESA DURNING, former councilor SCOTT ANDERSON, and provincial MLA staffer MIN RANDHAWA. Spotted: MARK CARNEY hosted a campaign event at Queen Street Fare at the same time KARINA GOULD hosted a campaign party at Bier Markt. | | | | New Year. New Washington. New Playbook. With intensified congressional coverage and even faster delivery of policy scoops, POLITICO’s reimagined Playbook Newsletter ensures you’re always ahead of the conversation. Sign up today. | | | | | | | PROZONE | | For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter by MIKE BLANCHFIELD. From Pro's LAUREN GARDNER this morning: How RFK Jr. could discourage vaccination. In other Pro headlines: — Congress finds Trump's TikTok deal confusing and possibly illegal. — Hegseth advances to final Senate vote despite misconduct allegations. — France urges Brussels to indefinitely delay EU green rules for business. — Climate world learns to speak Republican. — Trump’s water war with California could benefit his LA golf course. | |
Thursday’s answer: There are approximately 12,000 Waterford crystals that adorn the chandelier in the ballroom of Rideau Hall.
Props to RAY DEL BIANCO, MARCEL MARCOTTE, ROBERT MCDOUGALL and BILL WATSON. Friday’s question: On this day in 1848, who became premier and co-premier of the Province of Canada, and what party did they represent? Answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Think you have a harder question? Send it our way! | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
