Just a few weeks into the DOGE operation, there has been no shortage of provocative claims by Elon Musk about the effort he’s leading to radically reshape the federal government, scale back oversight of private industry and slash spending. But one of Musk’s biggest — and most concrete — promises is that his cost-cutting campaign will be so successful that it will fundamentally change how investors view the nation’s debt. “As it becomes clear that @DOGE is working, you will see the long-term Treasury bill yields fall,” Musk wrote on X this week. “And all Americans will benefit from lower interest payments on mortgages, small business debt, credit card and other loans.” Earlier this month, Musk said the “bond markets do not currently reflect the savings I’m confident we can achieve” and that the U.S. will need to borrow less “as we stop wasting taxpayer money on crazy things.” But that’s not a view shared by investors, who aren’t yet seeing DOGE as a meaningful force in the bond market or U.S. fiscal outlook. “It’s a whole lot of rhetoric, not a lot of results, and it remains to be seen whether that picture changes,” said Bob Elliott co-founder and CEO of Unlimited Funds, who noted that the pace of government spending since President Donald Trump came into office is still outpacing what it was last year. “In order for DOGE to be economically meaningful, they're going to have to deliver cuts on the order of hundreds of billions of dollars, or it's just not going to matter all that much in the context of the overall fiscal situation,” Elliot said. James Pethokoukis, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said he has yet to see any Wall Street analyst “suggest that anything DOGE will do will significantly change the long-term debt trajectory of the United States in a way that bond investors would look at that issue differently.” Pethokoukis said DOGE’s efforts to improve efficiency, stamp out waste and improve how the government uses technology seems “super doable” and worthwhile. But putting a dent in a budget deficit that is driven in large part by Social Security and health payments? “I just don’t think that math works,” he said, noting that there would still be a trillion-dollar deficit if Musk fired every single government employee. The Trump administration has been under growing pressure to show more of its work of what programs and funding DOGE is actually cutting — and by how much. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt trotted out “receipts” at her press briefing this week. And the DOGE website, which has gone live, is promising to fill out the government savings section of the site “no later” than today. “If DOGE has a secret plan to balance the budget, that would be new information,” Pethokoukis said. “The giant calculating machine of financial markets has so far rendered a judgment, which is: ‘We don't see it yet.’” It’s FRIDAY — Drop me a line at mstratford@politico.com. And for econ policy thoughts, Wall Street tips, personnel moves or general thoughts, email Sam at ssutton@politico.com. Programming Note: We’ll be off this Monday for Presidents Day but will be back in your inboxes on Tuesday.
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