FRIENDS WITHOUT BENEFITS — The saying has been around since 2016, approved by Trump allies and enemies alike: take Donald Trump seriously, but not literally. The idea, at the start, conveyed the notion that Donald Trump doesn’t mean every little thing he says, but his broader political project is deadly serious. For the entirety of his first term, most of Europe refused to take him seriously or literally. He was an interregnum, a small blight in the history of an alliance between the United States and the continent that dated back to World War II. But today, three years exactly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the United States’ relationship with Europe has officially hit the skids. The international order is rapidly and radically realigning. And Europe appears to be learning the hard lesson that many of Trump’s domestic enemies have already internalized — take Trump both seriously and literally. It was apparent today at the United Nations General Assembly, when most EU member states, along with the United Kingdom and Ukraine, banded together over U.S. objections to pass a draft resolution that held Russia directly responsible for the beginning of the war. After the Trump administration was unable to successfully lobby most of its allies against the resolution, Kyiv also managed to sink a separate, U.S.-backed resolution that notably made no reference to Russia’s role in launching the offensive against Ukraine by tacking on amendments that condemned Russia. The incident in New York laid bare just how quickly America’s relationship with Europe has eroded — and how the continent now believes that Trump is absolutely serious about things that once would have seemed implausible, like working with Russia, giving Russian President Vladimir Putin a pass for invading Ukraine, pulling troops back from Europe and leaving them to fend largely for themselves. Some leaders in Europe now believe that an end to a close U.S.-Europe alliance appears possible. After reclaiming power in Germany due to elections on Sunday, Friedrich Merz, the leader of the conservative CDU/CSU, acknowledged that, one month into Trump’s second term, America’s one-time allies have all but given up on the relationship. When they hear Trump say things like Ukraine started the war, they take him at his word. There’s no need to parse what he really means, or wonder if it’s just bluster. “My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA,” Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting said. “I never thought I would have to say something like this on a television program. But after Donald Trump’s statements last week at the latest, it is clear that the Americans, at least this part of the Americans, this administration, are largely indifferent to the fate of Europe.” Merz was referring to Trump’s comments that Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was a “dictator without elections.” This new serious and literal understanding — fueled by, among other things, his administration sitting down with Russia without representatives from other NATO member states or Ukraine present — led French President Emmanuel Macron to call multiple sessions of emergency talks last week to determine how best to support Ukraine. They resulted, in large part, in European leaders planning a military aid package worth at least €20 billion ($21 billion) to bolster Kyiv. The cash and troop commitments — and a growing certainty that the United States is abdicating its role as Europe’s protector — are also evidence that Europe no longer doubts Trump’s intentions. On some level, that’s a victory for Trump, who has been grousing since his first term about NATO member states continuing to not pay their fair share into the alliance. But his incendiary rhetoric towards Zelenskyy, and his reported suggestion that he may want to withdraw U.S. troops is forcing a reckoning. This week, beginning today, both Macron and U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer (on Thursday) will head to the White House to talk to Trump. There, the minutiae and degree of the fractures between the U.S. and its allies will be on full display, as Macron and Starmer attempt to salvage their own relationship with the Trump administration. In a statement on social media after meeting with Macron in the Oval Office and other G7 leaders virtually today, Trump emphasized that the Russia-Ukraine war “would have never started if I was president” and that he is in discussions with Putin “concerning the end of the war, and also major Economic Development transactions which will take place between the United States and Russia.” Trump also stated today that Putin would accept European peacekeepers in Ukraine, which would represent a U-turn in policy from the Russians. How long any sort of strategic partnership can last between the U.S. and Europe is now an open question. After almost 80 years of direct collaboration and security guarantees, Europe is now measuring a potential end to its strong strategic relationship with the United States in a matter of months. “I am very curious to see how we are heading toward the NATO summit at the end of June,” Merz said on Sunday. “Whether we will still be talking about NATO in its current form or whether we will have to establish an independent European defense capability much more quickly.” Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at cmchugh@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @calder_mchugh.
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