'He will betray'

Feb 16, 2025

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WELCOME TO DAY 3 of Global Playbook coming to you from Bavaria, where the Munich Security Conference is racing to the finish line. Things will wrap up here in the early afternoon, but we'll be back with a final edition on Monday morning.

POLITICO SCOOP: Officials here in Munich were absorbing the news last night that top Trump officials are heading to Saudi Arabia to start negotiations with Russia on a Ukraine peace deal. POLITICO's Robbie Gramer and Paul McLeary reported last night that Secretary of State Marco Rubio, national security adviser Mike Waltz and Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff are leading the talks. There are “no plans” for representatives from European powers to attend. Rubio had a phone call with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov Saturday paving the way for the negotiations.

Remembering Navalny: Before diving into the latest from Munich, it’s worth taking a pause to note that today is the one-year anniversary of the death of Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny. The news rocked the MSC last year, as confirmation that he had died in a Siberian prison filtered through on Feb. 16 2024.

His widow Yulia Navalnaya, who is here in Munich again this year, issued a warning to delegates gathering here this weekend: Don’t negotiate with Vladimir Putin.

“He will betray. He will change the rules at the last moment and force you to play his game." Sobering words.

TRANSATLANTIC GAP WIDENS

FIGHTING BACK: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz kicked off proceedings Saturday with a direct rebuke of U.S. Vice President JD Vance, who used his Munich Security Conference speech to lambast Europe. Opening with a reference to the Dachau concentration camp just outside Munich, the chancellor invoked Germany’s Nazi past, as he blasted “outsiders” for interfering in “our democracy, in our elections and in the democratic formation of opinion” to support the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.

Reminder: Vance met with AfD leader Alice Weidel on Friday before leaving for Washington aboard Air Force Two (he didn’t meet with Scholz).

Next in line: The frontrunner to be the next German chancellor, Friedrich Merz (who did score a meeting with Vance), also told the U.S. vice president to back off. “We respect the presidential elections and the congressional elections in the U.S. And we expect the U.S. to do the same here,” he said.

And Merz took a swipe at President Donald Trump for barring the Associated Press from the White House and Air Force One, saying the German government “would never kick out a news agency out of the press room of our chancellory.” POLITICO's Hans von der Burchard has the full story.

Ukrainian limits: While President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was careful not to criticize the Trump administration directly in his speech Saturday, he refused to sign a draft agreement to hand over half his country’s rare earth minerals to American companies in exchange for military support, the POLITICO team reports.

Reminder: Trump has said the U.S. wants $500 billion in Ukrainian mineral riches to repay it for military and civilian support since the start of the war — a figure much higher than America’s actual aid, according to two people familiar with the negotiations.

Sikorski spills the beans: The ever-loquacious Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski stole a march on the French by announcing from the MSC stage that an emergency EU summit had been called. He got the day wrong (saying it was Sunday, rather than Monday) before later correcting himself on X ... and then deleting the post.

Not at the table: In fact, the meeting is not a "summit," but rather a gathering of a group of select EU countries plus the U.K. Regardless, it's difficult to see what it can achieve, particularly given U.S. envoy Keith Kellogg’s remarks that Europe will not take part in Russia-U.S. talks on Ukraine.

A message from Helsing AI:

EUROPE FLOUNDERS

SCRAMBLING THE TEAM: The European Union's top diplomat Kaja Kallas has convened a meeting of EU foreign ministers this morning in Munich, with the 10 or so who are still in town expected to take stock on the latest in Ukraine. The bombshell news that Trump administration officials are heading to Saudi Arabia for peace talks with Russia will no doubt overshadow the conversation.

Show us the money: Multiple sources told POLITICO that the need for Europe to up its defense spending was a point made again and again by U.S. members of Congress in their meetings with continental officials over the past few days. As the FT reports, Washington has sent a demand to European capitals for details on weapons, troops and peace-keeping arrangements.

Stepping up: But a range of Europeans admitted the continent needs to do more. NATO boss Mark Rutte said in a POLITICO interview that members of the alliance will have to boost their defense spending by “considerably more than 3 percent” of GDP.

Time for action: Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys told POLITICO’s Jamie Dettmer that it’s clear Europe will have to move fast to satisfy Washington’s demands. “This is not a time for us to be shocked for too long, to be surprised or to be depressed or indulge these emotions. There’s no time for that. It's time for action.”

He joined the chorus of Europeans explicitly stating that NATO membership for Ukraine should remain on the table.

REACHING OUT: As POLITICO scooped Saturday, the EU’s trade boss Maroš Šefčovič, who’s been here in Munich throughout the weekend, will travel to Washington for high-level trade talks — the most senior EU figure yet to visit D.C. since Trump took office. The Slovak commissioner is slated to meet incoming Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and economic czar Kevin Hassett.

On the bright side: The EU may be in a tough spot on defense and security, but it has much more muscle on trade and economic policy, as one of the world's largest trading blocs. “We are strong enough to react to everything that is harming the European economy,” German Chancellor Scholz told Bloomberg Saturday. But, he added, reaching a deal with the Trump administration would "better for all parties involved."

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INTERVIEW ROUND-UP

POLITICO continued its programming Saturday with a range of top-notch speakers at the Pub. Here are some of the key takeaways ...

— Republican Representative Mike McCaul scoffed at the idea of China playing any role in Russia-Ukraine talks and promoting itself as a peace-broker. “It's like an accomplice to the crime being the judge of the case. I mean, absolutely insane,” he said in an interview with our own Robbie Gramer at the POLITICO Pub. “They are so complicit with the destruction of Ukraine.”

— Democratic Senator Mark Warner on his own party: “I think the Democrats’ brand is really bad, and I think this was an election based on culture.” He told our own Dasha Burns that "Democrats' failure to connect on a cultural basis with a wide swath of Americans is hugely problematic.”

— Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovilė Šakalienė on the need to ramp up defense capabilities: “We will have even more problems in the next year or two if we don’t ramp up our defense industry production levels,” she told Paul McLeary. “Both developing a European defense industry, and working with the United States defense industry. Of course the United States wants us to buy from them. We will have to find a balance.”

— Republican Senator Lindsey Graham proposed a conditional path for Ukraine’s NATO membership, with automatic entry if Russia invades again. “If you can’t get them into NATO right now, my idea with [former U.K. Prime Minister] Boris Johnson is to be really clear: Tell Putin if you ever do this again, if there’s another incursion by Russia into Ukraine, that leads to automatic admission into NATO by Ukraine as a tripwire,” Graham said in conversation with Jonathan Martin.

He also said the U.S. should continue to send weapons to Ukraine. “We need to continue to build up the capability of the Ukrainian military. Arm them to the teeth, give them a bunch of F-16s.”

AROUND TOWN

WOULD YOU LIKE FRIES WITH CHAT? There's been one tasty talking point at the MSC: POLITICO’s French fries. Trays of the red-cartoned delights were snapped up by eager delegates who crammed into the POLITICO Pub throughout the weekend. (Popcorn was also in supply for last night’s showing of the Bayern Munich soccer match.)

Football's coming home: But it was POLITICO's Gordon Repinski and Metin Hakverdi (a German member of parliament from Hamburg) who stole the show last night, winning the Munich Security Cup annual foosball (table football) tournament at the Literaturhaus.

Spotted at the event: Former U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, Federal Minister for Special Tasks of Germany Wolfgang Schmidt, the German Institute for International and Security Affairs' Claudia Major, MSC CEO Benedikt Franke and ECFR's Jana Puglierin, among others.

FALZ BAR: The swanky bar in the Bayerischer Hof was the site of some serious pre-dinner networking last night. Such was the fun that polite officials had to nudge the stragglers toward buses heading to the Bavarian state dinner, a staple of the Munich Security Conference, held in the Kaisersaal in the salubrious Residenz München.

MAKING EUROPE GREAT AGAIN ONE HAT AT A TIME: The MAGA brand has competition in Munich. An MSC conference-goer has been donning a green “Make Europe Great Again” hat — and our own Robbie Gramer caught up with him. It’s a riposte, not an homage, to the Trump movement, explained André Loesekrug-Pietri, a former adviser to the French defense minister.

Transatlantic inspiration: Loesekrug-Pietri said he was inspired to make the hat following Trump’s reelection. His aim was to rebrand the MAGA rallying cry for centrists and pro-Europeans who feel they’re being crowded out by political fringe movements on both sides of the Atlantic.

Art of the deal: Loesekrug-Pietri, the chairman of the Joint European Disruptive Initiative, said that when he set up a site to sell the hats, he had 17,000 requests within a few weeks. He said it shows the non-fringe political parties still have fight in them: “The response and demand has been overwhelming."

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SPOTTED

— Belarusian leader in exile Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya in conversation with Vatican Secretary of State Archbishop Paul Gallagher in the bar of the Bayerischer Hof.

— U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio avoiding eye contact with ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan in the corridor days after the latter was sanctioned by the U.S. administration (h/t Jamie Dettmer).

— Trump envoy Ric Grenell posing for selfies downstairs in the Rosewood.

— Former U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis waiting patiently in line as he made his way through a crush in the Bayerischer Hof corridor.

— Former French Prime Minister Michel Barnier catching up with Irish PM Micheál Martin in the Bayerischer Hof.

— At an AI dinner hosted by Fortescue's Andrew Forrest at the Blue Spa Wintergarten in the Bayerischer Hof: former Secretary of State John Kerry, former Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Fu Ying, CEO of European Climate Foundation Laurence Tubiana and Yalda Hakim of Sky News.

— At the POLITICO Pub Saturday: NATO chief Mark Rutte, POLITICO CEO Goli Sheikholeslami, Axel Springer CEO Mathias Döpfner, Kosovo's PM Albin Kurti, Irish PM Micheál Martin, EU sanctions envoy David O’Sullivan, Ivo Daalder, former U.S. permanent representative to NATO, former NSC spokesman and Crooked Media co-founder Tommy Vietor, Accenture’s Andrew Levy, Bayer CEO Bill Anderson, U.S. Senators Lindsey Graham, Jeanne Shaheen, Thom Tillis and Chris Coons, German Minister Wolfgang Schmidt, Niamh King of Aspen Strategy Group, Phil Bednarczyk of the U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Kurt Volker, former U.S. ambassador to NATO, Ambassador of Liechtenstein to the U.S. Georg Sparber, Interpol's Sam Heath, Yehor Chernev, the head of Ukrainian parliamentary delegation to NATO, former U.S. diplomat Zach Leighton, the Canadian government's Ali Tejpar.

AGENDA

For a full rundown of today’s main events, check the agenda. Highlights below.

Main program

— 7:30 a.m. From Gray Zones to Red Lines: Addressing Russian Hybrid Tactics in Europe; Fürstensalon

— 9:15 a.m. In the Eye of the Storm: European Security Architecture 50 Years After Helsinki. Speakers include: President of Finland Alexander Stubb, President of Latvia Edgars Rinkēvičs, Prime Minister of Iceland Kristrún Mjöll Frostadóttir, Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković; Conference Hall

— 10:30 a.m. Ready, Steady, 2030? Accelerating the Balkans’ EU Accession. Speakers include North Macedonian Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski, Prime Minister of Albania Edi Rama, European Parliament President Roberta Metsola, European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos; Conference Hall.

— 11:30 a.m. Falling Stars? Reviving European Competitiveness; Prime Minister of Luxembourg Luc Frieden, Franziska Brantner, co-chair of Germany's Greens, European People's Party President Manfred Weber, Joel Kaplan of Meta; Conference Hall

— 12:15 p.m. Never Waste a Quarter-Life Crisis: New Solutions in a Polarized Century; Head of the united transitional cabinet of Belarus Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Member of Congress of Guatemala Elena Motta, the Atlantic’s Anne Applebaum; Conference Hall

— 1 p.m. Conference Closing Session featuring MSC Chairman Christoph Heusgen; Conference Hall
At the POLITICO Pub, Rosewood Hotel

— 9:30 a.m. Reporter Debrief: Munich Security Conference Top Takeaways

— 11 a.m. A conversation with Finnish President Alexander Stubb

— 1 p.m. POLITICO Pub close

Around town

— 9:30 a.m. “Catalysts for Change: The Power of Women’s Political Movements in the Fight for Freedom.” Hosted by the International Republican Institute; Brasserie OskarMaria, Literaturhaus

THANKS TO: Jamie Dettmer, Robbie Gramer, Jacopo Barigazzi, Hans von der Burchard.

THANKS TO: Global Playbook editor Zoya Sheftalovich.

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