| | | |  | | By Robbie Gramer and Eric Bazail-Eimil | | Presented by |  | | | | 
President Donald Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, is in Kyiv today and met with Volodymyr Zelenskyy. | Sergei Supinsky/AFP via Getty Images | With help from Veronika Melkozerova and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric Ukraine’s allies in Washington have a blunt message for Kyiv: Time to hit the reset button with President DONALD TRUMP and take another look at that rare earths deal Washington sent your way. Trump administration insiders tell NatSec Daily there’s still time to salvage U.S.-Ukraine ties following several days of his blistering attacks against Kyiv that left Europeans stunned (and Russia positively gleeful.) “They had to learn the hard way that criticizing Trump publicly is just going to backfire in a big way,” said one Republican advising top administration officials on Ukraine policy. (This person, like the others who spoke to NatSec Daily, was granted anonymity to speak candidly about internal administration matters.) “There’s a small but loud wing of the party who are very anti-Ukraine, but many inside who are still pro-Ukraine. Bashing Trump only adds fuel to the side against you.” Several administration officials and other Republicans in direct contact with the Trump team said the president remains very open to continuing talks with Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY on how to best set up Kyiv for a lasting peace deal with Russia after three years of war. They downplayed the latest war of words as another example of the brash negotiating tactics one should expect from Trump the consummate deal maker — despite the fact that it appears to be damaging U.S. credibility among NATO allies in Europe. These administration insiders say Ukraine needs to work quickly with the American side to clinch a deal floated by Trump to give American companies half ownership over Ukraine’s deposits of rare earth minerals that are strategically important and potentially worth hundreds of billions of dollars. Pro-Ukraine Republicans have cheered the plan as a way to bring the MAGA movement on board with investing in Ukraine’s long-term security in exchange for economic benefits to Americans. Critics of the deal, including three European officials who NatSec Daily agreed not to name so they could offer their candid personal views on the matter, say it basically amounts to blackmail by a purported ally when Ukraine’s back is against the wall. Trump wants the deal as compensation for the billions of dollars worth of aid the United States has already provided, while Ukrainians want hard guarantees to prevent Russia from regrouping and re-launching another attack in the future. If those guarantees don’t include NATO membership, they believe it should include more military aid. Trump so far hasn't made as clear a demand to the Russian side as the Ukrainian side — a point that has fueled anger among Ukrainian and European officials. Zelenskyy said he rejected the deal when the Trump team first proposed it to him because it “is not ready to protect us, our interest.” National security adviser MIKE WALTZ told Fox News today that a co-investment deal like this would be “the best security guarantee they could ever hope for, much more than another pallet of ammunition.” He said Zelenskyy’s decision to spurn the deal and criticize Trump with “badmouthing in the press” triggered the bad blood between the two sides. “They need to tone it down and sign that deal.” Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine, KEITH KELLOGG, is in Kyiv today and met with Zelenskyy. Zelenskyy after the meeting said: “Ukraine is ready for a strong, effective investment and security agreement with the president of the United States. We have proposed the fastest and most constructive way to achieve results. Our team is ready to work 24/7.” He didn’t explicitly mention rare earths in his statement. Kellogg’s office didn’t respond to a request for additional comment on what they discussed. Kellogg, according to a U.S. official involved in the discussions, spoke to Trump before his visit to Kyiv and plans to brief the president once he’s back in Washington.
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| | | | | A TRAGEDY IN ISRAEL: The scene around the return of the remains of the Bibas family and another elderly hostage, who were held in Hamas captivity in Gaza since the Oct. 7 attacks, has dashed optimism in Israel as both sides move into talks next week to permanently end fighting in the Gaza Strip. It was the first time since the outbreak of fighting that Hamas has returned the bodies of dead Israeli hostages. And the manner of the repatriation shocked Israeli and international observers alike. Hamas paraded the four black coffins containing the remains of ODED LIFSHITZ, 83, SHIRI BIBAS, 32, ARIEL BIBAS, 4, and KFIR BIBAS, just 9 months old, through the streets of Gaza in a macabre display that prompted a rebuke from U.N. human rights chief VOLKER TURK. Hamas claimed they were killed in Israeli airstrikes, though the exact circumstances of their deaths remain uncertain. As Israelis lined up in the rain observing moments of silence, Israeli government officials excoriated Hamas for the deaths and the manner of the handover. Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU today vowed vengeance against the militant group. In an interview with NatSec Daily, Israeli Education Minister YOAV KISCH said the deaths of the Bibas family underscored the need to dislodge Hamas from the territory in light of the “savagery” they committed. “We in Israel cannot forgive and will not forgive and will not forget this terror organization. And we have a simple target to destroy it and make sure that it will never control Gaza or any other place,” said Kisch, who is on an official visit to the United States this week. FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — GITMO’S NEW ROLE IN TRUMP’S MIGRATION CRACKDOWN: Half of all U.S. military flights transporting detained migrants out of the country have gone to Guantanamo Bay, Cuba over the past month, making the U.S. base the busiest place for sending detainees. Fourteen flights have brought about 100 detainees to the base. That’s out of 28 migrant flights out of the U.S. since Trump took office, according to Pentagon and Homeland Security figures provided to POLITICO. Gitmo is supposed to be a waypoint for detainees on their way elsewhere, but it's unclear how long the 100 people there now have been there, or how long they will stay. On Jan. 29, Trump signed an executive order for the Pentagon and Homeland Security departments to begin making plans to house up to 30,000 migrants at the base. While the number is still nowhere near that, several hundred Marines have been dispatched to the base to build a tent camp, which is growing rapidly according to photos from a government website. TARGETING RWANDA: The Trump administration rolled out new sanctions today against one of Rwanda’s most powerful officials and a top member of a pro-Rwanda militia over their role in escalating the ongoing crisis in the Congo. The Treasury Department announced sanctions against JAMES KABAREBE, Rwanda’s minister of state for regional integration. It also imposed punitive measures on LAWRENCE KANYUKA KINGSTON, a senior member of the M23 rebel group. Both were sanctioned for their role in human rights abuses as pro-Rwandan groups escalate their attacks against Congolese forces and seize territory in eastern Congo. BOLTON ON POWER PLAY: Trump’s former national security adviser JOHN BOLTON he had a lot to say to our own Anne McElvoy about the prospects for a U.S. withdrawal from NATO on POLITICO’s Power Play Podcast. Bolton predicts that a hasty end to the war in Ukraine could swiftly open the door to the U.S. exiting NATO. “I thought Trump would withdraw from NATO and he hasn't done that yet, but you can hear the music begin to play,” Bolton said. And he’s not convinced Secretary of State MARCO RUBIO will be able to stand up for the alliance, even though he’s been a staunch defender of NATO in the past. “The dominant factor in Trump's nominations and appointments to his administration, really across the board, not just in national security, is that he wants yes men and yes women around him. And that may be what we're seeing in the case of Ukraine,” Bolton said. Listen to the full discussion with Bolton, as well as Anne’s conversation with former Finnish Prime Minister SANNA MARIN, in today’s episode. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s global security team: @dave_brown24,@HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @ak_mack, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, and @johnnysaks130
| | GUTTING THE BRAIN TRUST: Trump moved to dissolve the U.S. Institute of Peace, the U.S. African Development Foundation and the Inter-American Foundation late Wednesday as part of a purge of federal boards and trusts. Axios’ HANS NICHOLS reports that the Institute of Peace came in the Trump administration’s crossfires because many of its employees have donated to Democrats in the past and that made the organization “partisan” in the eyes of the White House. Meanwhile, the Inter-American Foundation, which was created to bolster development initiatives in Latin America and the Caribbean, was seen as a promoter of “Democratic theories” about the root causes of migration. No specific reason was provided to Axios for the axing of the Africa Development Foundation. In the executive order, the administration argued the moves were necessary to “minimize Government waste and abuse, reduce inflation and promote American freedom and innovation.”
| | PYONGYANG’S PHISHING TRIPS: A new report from software company ESET is shining light on the manner in which North Korean hackers are looking to infiltrate computer systems. ESET investigators identified a cluster of North Korean activity they’re dubbing DeceptiveDevelopment, in which hackers pose as headhunters and try to get their targets to download software that infects their computers with malware that steals their personal information. The North Korean operators do this by creating fake recruiter profiles on social media and getting victims to engage in fake job interview processes. Victims ranged from junior developers to highly experienced professionals in the field. It is unclear what the main purpose of the breaches are, but ESET says they mainly steal cryptocurrency for financial gain, and possibly are engaging in some forms of cyberespionage. The report underscores Pyongyang’s continued involvement in cyber mischief and its growing cyber capabilities as it targets victims around the world.
| | ABOUT THAT PENTAGON CUT: Defense Secretary PETE HEGSETH outlined that the Pentagon will make 8 percent cuts, and there are lots of marquee initiatives potentially on the chopping block. As our own Jack Detsch, Joe Gould, Paul McLeary and Connor O'Brien reported late Wednesday, the memo did not exempt some of the previously most critical projects the Pentagon was working on, such as space-based systems, a range of crewed aircraft, and troop deployments to a number of regions, including Europe and the Middle East. Hegseth did clarify that among the exempted programs would be Virginia-class submarines, self-operating weapons systems and the Air Force’s emerging uncrewed fighter jet program, which will develop jets that can fly themselves, surface ships, cybersecurity, munitions and energetics, and homeland missile defense, likely in anticipation of Trump’s push for a nationwide American equivalent of Israel’s ‘Iron Dome’ missile defense system. Democrats are outraged by the move, and even some more conservative figures are worrying that given the erratic nature of cuts initiated by ELON MUSK’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency, which is going into government agencies purporting to root out government waste and inefficiency, the reduction and realignment of resources at the Pentagon could cause major disruptions. ANDREW COTÉ, a former senior Defense Department official in the first Trump administration now at BRINC Drones, told our Daniel Lippman “this guidance underscores an opportunity to spend smarter — prioritizing lethality, adaptability, and the need for mass production of low-cost, high-impact, attributable systems. If executed correctly, this approach can enhance national security while ensuring that every defense dollar delivers maximum strategic value.”
| | PATEL STICKS THE LANDING: Trump ally KASH PATEL cruised to confirmation today, losing just two Republicans in his quest to lead the FBI. Sen. SUSAN COLLINS (R-Maine) said in a statement today that Patel’s “recent political profile undermines his ability to serve in the apolitical role of director of the FBI," pointing to statements he made about the nation’s preeminent law enforcement agency. Patel has indicated he intends to massively overhaul the FBI and combat what he claims is a “deep state” within the nation’s top law enforcement agency. Collins was joined in her opposition by Sen. LISA MURKOWSKI (R-Alaska). But other Republicans earlier had voiced support for the firebrand, meaning his path to confirmation hasn’t been particularly in question. Patel had locked down the support of Sens. THOM TILLIS (R-N.C.) and JONI ERNST (R-Iowa) before his hearing, and Sen. MITCH McCONNELL (R-Ky.) gave his assent to the nomination.
| | MEXICO’S MEASURES: Mexican President CLAUDIA SHEINBAUM said today she won’t let Trump’s designation of drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations become carte blanche for the U.S. to intrude on her country’s sovereignty. At her daily press conference, Sheinbaum said “the Mexican people will under no circumstances accept interventions, intrusions, or any other action from abroad that are detrimental to the integrity, independence, or sovereignty of the nation,” including by “land, sea, or air.” Her comments are an implicit rebuttal to Musk’s statement Wednesday that this designation would authorize the U.S. to use lethal force against Mexican targets. Mexico has chafed at the long-standing proposal to put the cartels on the list. It has argued that the cartels don’t share the motivations “terrorist groups” typically do, since they’re profit-oriented. Sheinbaum also alleges the United States did not consult Mexico about the move. Read: How Trump crashed into the NHL's Four Nations tournament by our own GREGORY SVIRNOVSKIY
| | — DANNY MEZA has joined the Global Business Alliance as director of trade. He previously was chief of staff for Rep. JOAQUIN CASTRO (D-Texas) and served in positions at the Commerce and State Departments. — ADAM STAHL is now acting administrator of the Transportation Security Administration. He most recently was chief of staff at TSA and served at the Department of Homeland Security in the first Trump administration. — SOHAN DASGUPTA has been named assistant secretary for trade and economic security at DHS. He previously was a partner at Taft Stettinius & Hollister and previously worked at the Department of Homeland Security and the Department of Education. — The Center for Global Development is naming MARKUS GOLDSTEIN and CLEMENCE LANDERS as vice presidents. Goldstein previously was lead economist at the World Bank and worked at Amazon. Landers is currently a senior policy fellow at CGD.
| | — The Editors, National Review: Ukraine is not the problem — William Hartung, Responsible Statecraft: Hegseth orders 8% cut to Pentagon budget. Not so fast. — Brett Forrest and Vera Bergengruen, The Wall Street Journal: The American who went undercover in Ukraine — for Moscow — Claire Parker, The Washington Post: With Gaza rule at stake, Palestinian forces struggle to make their case
| | — Creative Defense Foundation: Creative Disruptors in the Desert — Henry L. Stimson Center, 8:30 a.m.: Trump and Ishiba meet for the first time — what comes next? — Georgetown University, 9 a.m.: 2025 Transatlantic Policy Symposium, with the theme "New Era, New Europe? Europe's Bargain in a Changing World." — Lawfare and the Brookings Institution, 10 a.m.: Trump’s return and the fate of Ukraine — Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center, 11 a.m.: War and peace: The state of the battlefield and Trump's diplomacy in Ukraine — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, 11:30 a.m.: International negotiation in a fragmented world: the United Nations Pact for the Future — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 12 p.m.: What drives Russians to support the war? —Defense Priorities, 2:00 p.m.: Syria after Assad: Prospects for U.S. withdrawal Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, whose bilateral ties with us cannot be salvaged. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is always committed to forging more productive bilateral ties. CORRECTION: Wednesday’s NatSec Daily misstated the location of the 7th Special Forces Group. It is at Eglin Air Force Base. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | |
