JD Vance brings culture war to Europe

Feb 15, 2025

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WELCOME TO DAY 2 of Global Playbook coming to you from chilly Bavaria, where the 61st Munich Security Conference is in full swing.

PRIORITIES: If all the talk about defense, security and foreign policy is becoming a little too much, we’re screening the Bayern Munich vs. Leverkusen soccer match live in the POLITICO Pub in the Rosewood this evening.

Making news: We’ve also got a stellar cast of speakers throughout the day, including NATO chief Mark Rutte and U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham (details below). Drop by in person, or follow the coverage on our livestream and on our MSC hub throughout the day.

ZELENSKYY TAKES THE STAGE: In terms of today’s formal agenda, this morning’s speech by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at 10:30 a.m. is the biggie, though there’s a string of heavy hitters taking to the main conference hall. (Full agenda below.)

G7 foreign ministers, chaired by Canada’s Mélanie Joly, will also meet today, with a statement expected after.

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TALK OF THE TOWN

PREACHER MAN: Delegates packed into the conference hall and overflow rooms at the Bayerischer Hof hoping to hear U.S. Vice President JD Vance lay out some detail of the Trump administration’s plans for Ukraine. Instead, they got a lecture about Europe’s cultural decline. Read the latest from the POLITICO team on the ground on how Vance brought a wrecking ball to Europe.

Hot-button issues: The U.S. vice president used his pulpit at the Munich Security Conference to rage against what he said was European politicians’ failure to listen to their electorates, weighing in on everything from elections in Romania to abortion laws in Britain.

Burning down Germany’s firewall: “Democracy rests on the sacred principle that the voice of the people matters,” Vance said. “There’s no room for firewalls.” It was widely seen as a reference to the German political mainstream’s so-called firewall that prevents parties from working with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) due to its associations with the Nazi past.

“Nuts,” was the reaction of former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder. It’s “not the kind of language you would expect in the 21st century and certainly not from the U.S. vice president at Europe’s most important security conference,” he told POLITICO’s Robbie Gramer.

Glass half full: Democratic Representative Jason Crow gave an insightful take during a panel in the POLITICO Pub shortly after Vance’s speech, noting that “it could have been more damaging.” Because Vance basically ignored Ukraine, there was a “sigh of relief” that he didn’t say things that needed to be walked back, the Colorado lawmaker pointed out.

Germany fights back: German politicians were fuming about Vance’s intervention, with the country barely a week out from a Feb. 23 election. Vance also took aim at the Munich Security Conference during his speech for banning AfD politicians. (The vice president met on Friday with the leaders of all four major German political parties — including AfD chief Alice Weidel.)

Butt out: German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius hit back, telling an audience that he was abandoning the opening of his prepared speech to respond to Vance’s “unacceptable” intervention. “I would like to explicitly contradict and oppose the statement that the vice president suggested here — that our democracy oppresses and silences minorities,” Pistorius said.

ALWAYS AN UPSIDE: But at least someone came out of the situation looking better: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi took to the stage shortly after Vance to deliver his keynote speech. “After Vance, China looked positively constructive,” quipped one delegate.

In a sign of the below-the-radar networking that happens at events like the MSC, the Chinese delegation held a first meeting with EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas.

DECODING TRUMP

AUDIENCE OF 1: He may not be in town, but the specter of Donald Trump looms large over this year’s MSC. Most allies here in Munich are trying to get some clarity on Trump’s planned peace negotiations with Vladimir Putin. (For his part, the Russian president is assembling a team of heavyweights to run the talks, per Bloomberg, among them Yuri Ushakov, his chief foreign policy adviser, and his top spymaster, Sergei Naryshkin.) But as Vance’s cultural diatribe laid bare, detail remains elusive.

There is no plan: One thing that became obvious on Day 1 of the Munich Security Conference is the enormous divides that exist within the Republican Party on security and defense policy.

Case in point: Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Roger Wicker told our own Jonathan Martin in an interview Friday that U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth made a “rookie mistake” when he said a return to Ukraine’s pre-war borders was “unrealistic.” “I don’t know who wrote the speech — it is the kind of thing Tucker Carlson could have written, and Carlson is a fool,” Wicker said, referring to the pro-Putin pundit.

Pouring cold water: Wicker also shut down Trump’s suggestion that Russia should be readmitted to the G7 group of advanced nations (the G8 became the G7 after Russia was kicked out in 2014, when it first invaded Ukraine). Putin is a “war criminal” and “brutal dictator” who should be in prison, Wicker said. Should he be allowed rejoin the group of advanced nations? “Absolutely not.”

Still, there was an admission from Europeans that they need to do more. NATO chief Mark Rutte said Europe should come forward with “concrete plans” for a Ukraine peace deal if they want a seat at the negotiating table.“I really believe what Europeans have to do now is to come up with … concrete plans. One to get more military aid to Ukraine. Secondly, to get more training into Ukraine,” he told reporters.

Europe’s role: European Council President António Costa is also expected to make the point that peace in Ukraine must be fair — and lasting — when he addresses the conference today. The message? Russia cannot be allowed to remain a threat to its neighbors. (This afternoon’s session with the foreign ministers of France, Germany, Poland and the U.K. will be closely watched.)

Grim forecast: In an interview that’s set to air on Meet the Press Sunday morning in the U.S., President Zelenskyy warned Ukraine has a “low chance” of survival without “critical” American military support. My colleague Seb Starcevic has a write-up.

A message from Helsing AI:

AROUND THE BAYERISCHER HOF

CARACAS COMES TO MUNICH: Venezuela’s President-elect Edmundo González will take to the stage this evening with European Parliament President Roberta Metsola. (The EU body awarded him the Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought last year.)

It could be awkward if González crosses paths with Ric Grenell, however. The Trump envoy has been playing nice with Nicolás Maduro, who claimed he’d won last year’s election despite evidence he’d lost. Grenell secured the release of six Americans in exchange for help with U.S. plans to deport Venezuelans.

Bigger fish to fry: But Grenell may have his sights on bigger things. In comments to reporters here in Munich Friday, he floated a run for California governor. If Kamala Harris enters the race, Republicans would have a shot “and I wouldn’t say no,” he said.

NORDIC NEIGHBORHOOD: NATO has agreed to set up a new combined air operations center in Norway, General Eirik Kristoffersen, the head of the country’s armed forces, revealed to POLITICO’s Jack Detsch in an interview. The new air center (adding to the alliance’s two existing ones in Spain and Germany) will reach operational capacity in 2025 and be fully operational in 2027.

ALL TOGETHER NOW: The EU’s technology chief shied away from rebuking JD Vance’s fierce attacks on the bloc’s tech rulebooks. Instead, European Commission Executive Vice President for Tech Henna Virkkunen called for more collaboration with international partners, warning that the geopolitical situation will continue to be “more and more complex,” POLITICO’s Antoaneta Roussi reports. Speaking at the Munich Cyber Security Conference on Friday, the Finn said coordinating against cyber threats is necessary.

AI in focus: One of the key takeaways from the two-day cyber summit, which saw hundreds of delegates from the tech world descend on Munich, was a shift in tone on artificial intelligence, report Antoaneta and POLITICO’s Cybersecurity Editor Laurens Cerulus. Increasingly, the emphasis is on the role it can play in security, encapsulated by the U.K.’s announcement at Munich recasting its landmark “AI Safety Institute” (AISI) to a “security institute.”

HAPPENING THIS MORNING: Ease into the day at Amerikahaus, where the Bertelsmann Foundation is hosting a breakfast screening of “Lithium Rising: The Race for Critical Minerals.” Brian Kemp, the governor of the U.S. state of Georgia, is slated to make an appearance.

FRIDAY NIGHT WRAP: Delegates fanned out across town last night for various events, including a dinner hosted by EY, the FRAUEN100 gathering at the Charles Hotel, and the YES (Yalta European Strategy) Ukraine dinner, a staple of the Munich Security Conference scene.

SPOTTED

— NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte holding court in the Bayerischer Hof’s Falk’s Bar surrounded by a phalanx of aides (and occasionally interrupted by fans from the think tank world asking for selfies. (H/t Robbie Gramer)

— European Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra in conversation with Bayer CEO Bill Anderson in the Bayerischer Hof.

— At the FRAUEN100 event co-hosted by Goals House, the Aspen Institute Germany and Gates Foundation at the Charles Hotel: Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly; Secretary-General United Nations Trade and Development Rebeca Grynspan; Human Capital Africa CEO Oby Ezekwesili; Afghan lawmaker and women’s rights advocate Fawzia Koofi; Florence Gaub, director of the research division at NATO Defense College; Welt’s Jennifer Wilton; POLITICO’s Cally Baute and Suzanne Lynch; former OSCE Secretary-General Helga Schmid; Bloomberg’s Stephanie Flanders; Google’s Hannah Pawlby; Eloise Todd of Pandemic Action Network.

— At the POLITICO pub Friday: CEO of POLITICO Goli Sheikholeslami; CEO of Axel Springer Mathias Döpfner; political consultant Kellyanne Conway; former Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo; McCourt Global’s Frank McCourt and Tomicah Tillemann; Ambassador of Israel to Germany Ron Prosor; Matthias Berninger of Bayer; EU Ambassador to the U.S. Jovita Neliupšienė; Fortum’s Markus Rauramo; E.ON’s Leonhard Birnbaum; former CIA Director David H. Petraeus; Apple’s Ivan Doherty; former Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren.

— At the Google/MSC nightcap: Alphabet’s Kent Walker; Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže; former MEP Reinhard Bütikofer; Alina Polyakova from the Center of European Policy Analysis; POLITICO’s Jan Cienski; MSC’s Benedikt Franke.

— At the Axel Springer Freedom Party: U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard; U.S. Envoy for Special Missions Ric Grenell (the former U.S. ambassador to Germany); CDU leader (and likely next German chancellor) Friedrich Merz; NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte; Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar; German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck; former NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg; Bavarian premier Markus Söder; campaigner Yulia Navalnaya; former Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin; Vitali Klitschko, mayor of Kyiv.

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AGENDA

For a full rundown of today’s main events, check the agenda. Highlights below.

Main program

— 9:30 a.m. “Germany in the World,” statement and conversation with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz; Conference Hall

— 10:30 a.m. Defiance and Diplomacy: Prospects for Ukraine’s Future; Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy; Conference Hall

— 11:30 a.m. Rising Tides, Sinking Hopes: Navigating Climate-Induced Migration: Speakers include German parliamentary State Secretary Niels Annen, Director General of the International Organization for Migration Amy Pope, Energy Minister of Morocco Leila Benali, U.S. Senator Brian Schatz, Hindou Oumarou Ibrahim, founder of the Association for Indigenous Women and Peoples of Chad; Komödie

— 11:30 a.m. Global Democracy Trends. Speakers include: Foreign Minister of the National Unity Government of Myanmar Zin Mar Aung and U.S. Senator Chris Coons; Public Square

— 11:30 a.m. Security Dividend: European Support for Ukraine. Speakers include European Council President António Costa, Czech President Petr Pavel, Danish PM Mette Frederiksen, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson; German CDU leader Friedrich Merz; Conference Hall

— 12:30 p.m. Pay or Prey?: NATO, the U.S. and Transatlantic Security. Speakers include NATO chief Mark Rutte, U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham, U.S. Senator Jeanne Shaheen, the ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee; Conference Hall

— 3:30 p.m. Making Waves: Maritime Tensions in the Indo-Pacific. Speakers include Philippines Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo, Singapore’s Defense Minister Ng Eng Hen and Fu Ying of Tsinghua University; Königssaal

— 3:30 p.m. Europole? The Old Continent’s New Political Role. Speakers include German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, French FM Jean-Noël Barrot, British Foreign Secretary David Lammy; Conference Hall

— 4:30 p.m. It’s a Small World? The Connected Security of Europe and Asia. Speakers include South Korea’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Cho Tae-yul, Japan’s Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya, NZ’s Defence Minister Judith Collins, NATO Deputy Secretary-General Radmila Šekerinska, U.S. Senator Roger Wicker; Königssaal

— 4:30 p.m. Trade War and Peace: Safeguarding Economic Ties Amidst Rising Protectionism. Speakers include German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck; Canadian FM Mélanie Joly, European Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič, Jon M. Huntsman of Mastercard; Conference Hall

— 5:30 p.m. New Dawn for Damascus: Prospects for Syria’s Transition. Speakers include Syrian Minister of Foreign Affairs Asaad al-Shaibani, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Hind Kabawat of George Mason University; Conference Hall

— 6:30 p.m. A Conversation on the Middle East with President of the World Jewish Congress Ronald Lauder; Königssaal

— 6:30 p.m. Peace Through Strength: A Plan for Ukraine. Speakers including: Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, U.K. Foreign Secretary David Lammy, Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovilė Šakalienė; Komödie

— 6:30 p.m. Venezuela’s President-elect Edmundo González in conversation with President of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola; Public Square

At the POLITICO Pub, Rosewood Hotel

— 9:30 a.m. POLITICO Briefing: EU Morning Defense with Josh Posaner and Jacopo Barigazzi

— 10 a.m. Roundtable: Addressing non-traditional security threats — food scarcity, inflation and beyond, presented by Bayer

— 11 a.m. A conversation with U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham

— 11:30 a.m. A conversation with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte

— 11:45 a.m. MSC Mainstage viewing

— 1:30 p.m. A conversation with U.S. Senator Mark Warner

— 2 p.m. A conversation with U.S. Senate NATO Observer Group Co-Chairs Senator Jeanne Shaheen and Senator Thom Tillis

— 2:20 p.m. A conversation with Brian Kemp, governor of the U.S. state of Georgia

— 2:40 p.m. A conversation with U.S. Senator Chris Coons

— 4:30 p.m. Roundtable: Ukraine’s Future in a Trump Era

— 5:30 p.m. Roundtable: The 5% Question