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Feb 14, 2025 View in browser   By Suzanne Lynch GOOD MORNING from Munich, which is reeling from an attack on Thursday that injured more than 30 people. The attack, allegedly carried out by an Afghan asylum-seeker who plowed his car into a crowd, ignited an already bitter general election campaign, where the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is pushing an anti-immigrant platform. More on how the Feb. 23 election has been upended by POLITICO's Chris Lundy. Close to home: The attack also shocked organizers here at the Munich Security Conference, as political heavy hitters descended on the city for the three-day summit. As of this morning, the conference is proceeding as planned, with senior officials including U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy all on track to attend. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is also due to arrive in Munich, though he had to switch planes after the one he was on experienced a mechanical issue and had to turn around. Happy Valentine’s Day: Yes, it’s the day of love, but don’t expect cards or romantic gestures. Instead, the mood is grim as the three-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches, the U.S. discards decades-old alliances and plays nice with the Kremlin, and the Israel-Gaza cease-fire hangs in the balance. The POLITICO team will be with you throughout the weekend to make sense of the head-spinning developments of the past few days and keep you up to speed with the conversations happening in the Hotel Bayerischer Hof. Come join us: First up this morning, your Global Playbook author will be in conversation with POLITICO’s own Jonathan Martin, setting the scene for the next few days as we kick off our live programming at the POLITICO Pub in the Rosewood Hotel. The venue, which is open through Sunday, will be the place to dine, network and engage with POLITICO’s all-star reporting team on the ground throughout the Munich Security Conference. Check out the line-up here and drop in to say hi, and follow the livestream here. But wait, there's more: At our welcome party last night (full spotted list below), POLITICO and MSC announced a new partnership to bring the Munich Leaders Meetings to Washington, D.C., this May. Read more about that here.   We’ve re-imagined and expanded our Inside Congress newsletter to give you unmatched reporting on Capitol Hill politics and policy -- and we'll get it to your inbox even earlier. Subscribe today.     MUNICH ROLL As we buckle up for a busy few days, here's who you can expect to see in town over the next few days ... WHO’S COMING: U.S. Vice President JD Vance; U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (assuming all goes to plan with his replacement aircraft); Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy; NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte; German Chancellor Olaf Scholz; leader of Germany’s CDU party Friedrich Merz, the likely next chancellor; Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi; European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen; U.S. Special Envoy for Russia and Ukraine Keith Kellogg; Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani; Israel’s Israel's Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar; Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammed Mustafa ... ... and there's more: Estonian President Alar Karis; Prime Minister of Denmark Mette Frederiksen; British Foreign Secretary David Lammy; European Council President António Costa; Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly; Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam; Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani; New Zealand’s Defense Minister Judith Collins; Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani. WHO'S NOT: U.S. President Donald Trump; Russian President Vladimir Putin; North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-Un; India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi; Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau; Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. UKRAINE IN FOCUS ONE YEAR ON: When he made his Munich Security Conference debut 12 months ago, JD Vance was merely a first-term senator from Ohio. Today he’s a heartbeat away from the Oval Office, hand-picked by Donald Trump as the 50th vice president of the United States. Veep-stakes: Vance and Marco Rubio are due to meet Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy at around 10 a.m. today (assuming Rubio makes it on time, given he had to change planes). At least they're making the effort. As  Global Playbook scooped last year, Vance didn’t bother to show up to a meeting between Zelenskyy and a bipartisan group of Congress members at the last MSC, instead  doubling down on his claim in an interview with yours truly that Ukraine would have to concede significant territory in any peace settlement. Does he still hold that view? Others in the Trump administration certainly do. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told stunned allies in Brussels Wednesday that a return to Ukraine’s old borders is an “illusory goal," adding for good measure that Ukraine’s dreams to join NATO were a non-starter. Those bombshells were quickly overshadowed, however, by the news that Trump was starting negotiations “immediately” with Putin following a surprise 90-minute phonecall. America’s allies were blindsided by Trump’s announcement, leaving NATO defense ministers scrambling to respond. Not in the room: The developments of the past few days have left Europeans reeling. Fears they would become bystanders as the future of a war taking place on their doorstep is decided by others are being borne out. (Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal argues in an opinion piece for POLITICO today that the EU might not survive without Ukraine inside the bloc to protect it.) Could it get any worse? To add insult to injury, Trump announced plans for sweeping tariffs on trading partners  overnight, declaring America's trade deficit a matter of national security. Peace in our time: On the eve of the MSC, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas accused Trump of appeasement, a charge imbued with symbolism given Neville Chamberlain’s famous ill-fated deal with Hitler in Munich in 1938 (more on that from my continental colleagues here). Laura Kayali and Jacopo Barigazzi report that Europe lacks a master plan to deal with the paradigm shift. Putting on a brave face: NATO boss Mark Rutte, who’s increasingly looking like the only feasible leadership figure in Europe when it comes to going toe to toe with Trump, sought to highlight Europe’s increased spending on defense over recent years at a press conference in Brussels on Thursday. The 5 percent problem: But as POLITICO’s defense team reports, Europe is struggling to meet Trump’s demand that allies spend 5 percent of GDP on defense. After a decade trying to reach the 2 percent of GDP target (a goal that 24 out of 32 members currently meet), many European countries are facing major budgetary constraints. Fly on the wall: With G7 foreign ministers meeting on the MSC sidelines, Trump's declaration that Russia should be readmitted to the group puts an interesting slant on things. NEW WORLD ORDER FRAYED ALLIANCES: The Munich Security Conference has long cast itself as the preeminent forum for transatlantic dialogue, attracting top-level figures through the years, from the late John McCain  to former President Joe Biden. But at this current moment, it all seems like a quant throwback to a former time. Pax Americana (Trump-style): Pentagon boss Pete Hegseth made it clear this week where Washington’s priority now lies — and it’s not in Europe. “Stark strategic realities prevent the United States of America from being primarily focused on the security of Europe,” he said in Brussels Wednesday, instead prioritizing deterring war with China in the Pacific. Democratic members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee introduced a resolution affirming America’s commitment to NATO Thursday before high-tailing it to Munich — but no Republican stepped up to sponsor it. Changing times: Can the Munich Security Conference remain relevant in this changing climate? “The MSC always becomes more important when the transatlantic alliance is under pressure,” said Benedikt Franke, CEO of the Munich Security Conference. “It’s one of the few places and times during the year where both sides of the political spectrum in the U.S. come together outside of the U.S. and are confronted directly with their allies, partners, competitors and even rivals.” Widening the net: He also highlighted the presence of representatives from countries outside the transatlantic sphere, with a high number of participants from Africa, Asia and South America participating this year. “Many of the security challenges that we're currently seeing are global, hence we need to make sure to involve as many members of the global community as possible,” Franke said. Realpolitik: But it’s also about confronting real concerns from those in the so-called Global South that the international system doesn’t work for them. “When it comes to legitimate criticism of international organizations, years of promise of reform of the international financial architecture, including the Global South, in the discussions in Munich means we have a much bigger chance at coming up with a solution," Franke said.   A new era in Washington calls for sharper insights. Get faster policy scoops, more congressional coverage, and a re-imagined newsletter under the leadership of Jack Blanchard. Subscribe to our Playbook Newsletter today.     OUT AND ABOUT SEE YOU AT THE PUB: We kicked off our events program with a hopping reception at the POLITICO Pub in the Rosewood last night. Spotted: Canada's EU Ambassador Ailish Campbell; Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže; POLITICO's Cally Baute, Jamil Anderlini, Dasha Burns, Jonathan Greenberger, Jonathan Martin, Dave Brown and Rachel Loeffler; BILD Group CEO Carolin Hulshoff Pol; Ukrainian businessman and philanthropist Victor Pinchuk; CEO of the Munich Security Conference Benedikt Franke; former German Ambassador to the United States Wolfgang Ischinger; Breakthrough Energy's Ann Mettler; former United States Secretary of Energy Ernie Moniz; Microsoft's Ginny Badanes; Octopus Energy's Greg Jackson and Chris Fitzgerald; Bayer's Helga Flores Trejo, Matthias Berninger and Max Müller; FT's Henry Foy; Eurasia Group's Ian Bremmer; BILD's Marion Horn; the Economist's Zanny Minton Beddoes; the National's Mina Al-Oraibi; Helsing's Nick Cohen; Ryan Triplette of Coalition for Fair Software Licensing; Women Political Leaders President Silvana Koch-Mehrin; Meridian's Stuart Holliday, and many more. DINNER WITH A TWIST: Guests at last night’s dinner organized by the Council on Foreign Relations at the Herzog restaurant were treated to a three-course meal featuring foods under threat from climate change, from red prawn carpaccio to Norwegian cod fillet confit with chive butter blanc and caviar. Among the guests were CFR President Mike Froman, Executive Director of the U.N. World Food Programme Cindy McCain and MSC's Michael Werz. COCKTAIL HOUR: Cybersecurity expert and former NSA chief Mike Rogers was the co-host of Thursday evening’s Trusted Future Cocktail reception at H’ugo’s Wine Cellar across from the Bayerischer Hof. WOMEN OF THE WORLD: New Zealand Defence Minister Judith Collins, Tanzanian MP Neema Lugangira and U.K. Shadow Foreign Secretary Priti Patel were among the well-known names on the guest list at last night’s Women Political Leaders welcome reception at the Gelber Salon, Bayerischer Hof. Easy listening: Prominent female leaders also came together for a live podcast recording last night, hosted by One Decision and Deutsche Welle’s Berlin Briefing Podcast at the Loft Space at Künstlerhaus am Lenbachplatz. Among them: Baiba Braže, former Icelandic Foreign Minister Þórdís Kolbrún R. Gylfadóttir and former Deputy Prime Minister of the Netherlands Kajsa Ollongren. AROUND THE BAYERISCHER BRACED FOR PROTESTS: Iranian opposition group the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) will stage a protest today at 11 a.m. in Odeonsplatz near the Bayerischer. Hundreds of protesters are expected to attend, demanding that the EU and U.K. designate the Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist group and the reinstatement of U.N. Security Council resolutions on Iran’s nuclear program. CHINA WATCH: Foreign Minister Wang Yi is leading the Chinese delegation here. He visited the U.K. en route to Munich and will fly to Ireland Sunday. China’s  potential role in Ukraine “peace talks” will be one to watch. (Expect the Europeans to be less-than-enthusiastic about the prospect of Chinese troops taking part in any peace-keeping mission on European soil.) CYBER SUMMIT: The MSC’s little brother, the Munich Cyber Security Conference, continues today at the Munich Chamber of Commerce, right around the corner from the Bayerischer Hof. As POLITICO’s Maggie Miller and Antoaneta Roussi report, the return of Trump to the White House has cybersecurity officials across the West scrambling to keep their counteroffensives against Moscow and Beijing on the rails. AGENDA For a full rundown of today's main events, check the agenda. Highlights below. Main program — 10 a.m. Opening Townhall on Building or Burning Bridges: Economic and Development Cooperation Amid Multipolarization, featuring President of Ghana John Mahama, Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares; Komödie — 1:30 p.m. Opening and welcome remarks with German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier delivering the opening speech; Conference Hall Main Stage I — 2 p.m. Statement and conversation on the EU in the World with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen; Main Stage I — 2:30 p.m. Statement on the U.S. in the World by U.S. Vice President JD Vance; Main Stage I — 3 p.m. Statement and Conversation on China in the World with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi; Main Stage I — 3:30 p.m. Townhall on Strategic Investment: The Future of U.S.-Ukraine Security Cooperation featuring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and a cross-party group of U.S. senators including Republicans Lindsey Graham and John Cornyn and Democrats Jeanne Shaheen and Sheldon Whitehouse; Komödie — 4:30 p.m. Panel Discussion on Seismic Shifts: More European Responsibility for Defense featuring German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda, U.K. Defense Secretary John Healey and French MP Natalia Pouzyreff; Main Stage I — 5:30 p.m. Spotlight on Georgia with fifth President Salome Zourabichvili; Public Square — 6 p.m. Townhall on Stabilizing a Restless Region: Prospects for Peace in the Middle East featuring Palestinian PM Mohammad Mustafa, Jordan's Deputy PM Hussein Abdullah Al-Safadi, EU top diplomat Kaja Kallas; Komödie — 6:30 p.m. Spotlight on Russian Repression at Home and Abroad featuring Yulia Navalnaya of the Anti-Corruption Foundation and Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya; Public Square — 10 p.m. Night Cap Session on Standard Deviation: Addressing Double Standards and Reinforcing Common Rules; Public Square At the POLITICO Pub, Rosewood Hotel — 9:30 a.m. Global Playbook with Suzanne Lynch — 9:45 a.m. A conversation with U.S. Republican Senator Roger Wicker — 11:30 a.m. Roundtable: Wars of the Future — How technology is changing the battlefield — 1:30 p.m. MSC main stage viewing — 3:30 p.m. National Security Forum with bipartisan members of Congress, presented by With Honor Action and McKinsey & Co. — 5:30 p.m. POLITICO Briefing: Berlin Playbook with Gordon Repinski — 7 p.m.-1 p.m. Drinks & Networking At the Munich Cyber Security Conference — 9:30 a.m. Cyber Defense in 2025; Munich Cyber Security Conference, Munich Chamber of Commerce. Speakers include Lieutenant General Michael Vetter from the German defense ministry; MEP Hannah Neumann; Swedish Minister for Civil Defense Carl-Oskar Bohlin; Major General Zac Stenning, director of UK Strategic Command; Chris Inglis, former national cyber director at the White House. — 11:15 a.m. Vantage Point with Audrey Tang, former minister of digital affairs, Taiwan — 12:20 p.m. Keynote speech by European Commission Executive Vice President Henna Virkkunen Around town — 1:15 p.m. Media doorstep by NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte at the Bayerischer Hof — 10 p.m. Google/MSC Nightcap “Pool Area," Hotel Bayerischer Hof THANKS TO: Global Playbook editor Zoya Sheftalovich.   Follow us on Twitter Suzanne Lynch @suzannelynch1   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  Global Playbook  |  West Wing Playbook  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook  |  Paris Playbook Follow us

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