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Hi, China Watchers. Today we examine corruption inside the Chinese military, look at the impact of U.S.-EU tensions on Beijing's diplomacy, and profile a book that argues the U.S. just doesn't understand Xi Jinping's China.
Let's get to it. — Phelim.
"An opportunity to screw them up"
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Chinese leader Xi Jinping's anti-corruption crusade has reportedly claimed another high-profile military figure — General He Weidong, a member of the Central Military Commission, the military's top decision-making body.
Chinese authorities have detained He — a longtime crony of Xi's who boasted publicly of the success of his anti-graft drive in January — for unspecified crimes, Newsweek reported Monday. That follows the suspension of commission member Admiral Miao Hua for what state media called "serious violations of discipline" in November. The downfall of Miao and He are just the latest in a years-long series of revelations of how graft permeates the highest levels of the Chinese military leadership, despite Xi's ongoing anti-corruption campaign.
Beijing's military corruption problem could be a boon to the U.S., both by providing opportunities for U.S. efforts to offset China's increasingly aggressive military footprint in the Indo-Pacific and by creating weaknesses in China's massive fighting force.
"What I see is an opening to throw disinformation into the Chinese military system, to have people questioning who is really loyal to Xi and who’s just on the make. This is an opportunity to screw them up by adding to the rumor mill in China," said Dennis Wilder, former National Security Council director for China under the George W. Bush administration. "This kind of corruption has a hugely corrosive effect that the U.S. can exploit."
It also may erode the operational readiness of the Chinese military, thereby giving the U.S. military an advantage in a potential future conflict.
"The arrests cast a shadow on the actions of newly selected replacements — it must be hard to be an innovator or game changer in the People's Liberation Army system if you see senior leaders disappear with little warning," said retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, former director of U.S. Pacific Command. (Two senior officials in China’s military aircraft sector — including the chief designer of its J-20 stealth fighter — disappeared into apparent official detention in January.)
The Chinese government's funneling of massive resources into building the size and strength of its military — Beijing now boasts the world's largest navy and a growing arsenal of hypersonic missiles — means that graft will likely persist regardless of the risks.
"There is a huge amount of room today in the PLA for kickbacks because so much money has been thrown at military modernization, whether it’s ships or missiles or aircraft," Wilder said.
Xi's anti-corruption campaign aims to ensure that the PLA can deter or potentially even win a conflict with the U.S. in the Taiwan Strait or on the South China Sea. But the drumbeat of graft-related dismissals and prosecutions may backfire by fostering a risk-averse military culture incompatible with successful war-fighting.
"I don't think the purges suggest the PLA can't fight or be led in a fight —it does mean that the fear of making a mistake makes it harder for commanders to confidently take the initiative in a fluid combat environment," said retired Adm. Mike Studeman, former commander of the Office of Naval Intelligence.
TRANSLATING WASHINGTON
— TRUMP WARNS ON CHINA-RUSSIA TIES: President Donald Trump sees trouble in China's alignment with Russia. "As a student of history — which I am, and I’ve watched it all — the first thing you learn is you don’t want Russia and China to get together," Trump told Fox News on Tuesday. That follows Secretary of State Marco Rubio's comment last month that the administration wants to try to split Russia from China. Trump didn't touch on a possible upcoming meeting with China's leader Xi Jinping after telling reporters Monday that Xi will come to Washington "in the not-too-distant future." China's Foreign Ministry declined to comment on a possible Xi-Trump meeting.
— KRISHNAMOORTHI: MEDIA CUTS HARM NATIONAL SECURITY: The ranking member of the House Select Committee on China, Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.), urged the Senate to pause confirmations of foreign policy officials until the Trump administration restores support to congressionally funded media platforms including Voice of America and Radio Free Asia. Those cuts "severely weaken our ability to compete with the Chinese Communist Party and ultimately make us less safe," Krishnamoorthi said Tuesday in a statement.
He's got GOP support. The dismantling of the U.S. Agency for Global Media, which oversees those broadcasters, "silences the voices of freedom-loving people around the world," Rep. Young Kim (R-Calif.) said in an op-ed Wednesday. That support may be too late to save RFA. The broadcaster will furlough 75 percent of its staff starting Friday and has already let go its stringers and contractors, the union that represents RFA staff said Wednesday. USAGM announced Saturday that it would no longer fund those platforms as part of an administration cost-cutting drive.
Beijing is pleased. Both VOA and RFA had a "blemished track record on China coverage," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said Tuesday.
— MOOLENAAR TO BYTEDANCE: GET LOST: The chair of the House Select Committee on China, John Moolenaar (R-Mich.), wants the White House to reject any TikTok sale that would allow its Beijing-based parent firm ByteDance to retain control of the app's algorithm and user data. Moolenaar said that doing so would violate the law Congress passed last year requiring ByteDance sell the app to a non-Chinese buyer.
"ByteDance must fully divest its control of TikTok and have no say in its operations; nor can the two share data, content, or algorithms — these are non-negotiable," Moolenaar said in an op-ed Tuesday. That followed POLITICO reporting Sunday that the Trump administration is considering allowing TikTok to continue operations in the U.S. without data protections required by the law.
TRANSLATING EUROPE
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Klaus Welle served as secretary general of the European Parliament from 2009 to 2022 and is now chair of the Academic Council at the Brussels-based think tank the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies. Welle made a splash last month criticizing the Trump administration's reversal in U.S. support for Ukraine and U.S. tariffs on the EU for boosting Beijing and Moscow's efforts to split the transatlantic alliance.
China Watcher spoke to Welle — who has had extensive dealings with Chinese diplomats over the years — about the widening rift between the U.S. and Europe over trade and Ukraine, and how Beijing may benefit.
Responses have been edited for length and clarity.
How does Beijing see this moment of tense U.S.-European Union ties?
By putting that strain on the U.S.-European relationship, the Trump administration is fulfilling the Chinese dream. They’re creating a lot of mistrust right now on the European side.
You could hear this loud and clear from Foreign Minister Wang Yi at the Munich Security Conference. He was arguing for that multipolar world. He was then making an offer to Europeans saying "Why don't we combine the Belt and Road Initiative and the EU's Global Gateway."
The Chinese are very clearly courting E.U. institutions as interlocutors, whereas on the other side, our High Representative Kaja Kallas was not even received by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, even though she was already in the United States, And the meeting between Trump and President Andrzej Duda of Poland was cut to 10 minutes.
What other negative U.S.-China dynamics do you see affecting Europe?
What is troubling is that the parties in Europe most preferred by the current administration are the German [far right] Alternative for Germany and the Hungarian Fidesz, the party of [Hungarian Prime Minister] Victor Orbán.
Both of them have extremely close relationships with China. The AfD leader Alice Weidel studied in China. She is fluent in Mandarin. She worked for a Chinese bank for a couple of years, and it's said that she meets monthly with the Chinese ambassador. We know that Hungary recently has struck with China an "All Weather Partnership," which means it’s China's privileged partner in Europe. These parties are very open for cooperation with Russia, very open for cooperation with China, and they seem to be the preferred political partners of the current administration.
What Trump administration policies are you worried about?
We are seeing trouble for future research cooperation. Many U.S. federal programs are currently being unraveled. And also the global network that the United States could use to limit Chinese influence — like USAID or even the International Republican Institute or the National Democratic Institute — all of this has been cut to pieces.
HOT FROM THE CHINA WATCHERSPHERE
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Beijing's latest trade beef: U.S. beef exporters were locked out of the Chinese market this week due to Beijing's failure to renew licenses for hundreds of U.S. meat processing facilities. Those licenses expired on Sunday and the Chinese government hasn't provided any reason for letting them lapse. Beijing renewed licenses allowing export of U.S. poultry and pork Monday but beef producers are in limbo.
"We are hoping for similar news soon on the beef side, but for now the 390 U.S. beef facilities that expired on March 16 have not yet been renewed," said Joe Schuele, spokesperson for the U.S. Meat Export Federation.
GOP and Democratic U.S. lawmakers from beef producing states declined to comment or didn't respond to requests for comment.
The Department of Agriculture said it hoped the disruption wouldn't last long. "We are optimistic that the remaining beef operations will soon receive their certifications, minimizing any disruptions in the beef trade," it said in a statement.
The Chinese embassy didn't respond to a request for comment.
— HONG KONG GRUMBLES AT PANAMA DEAL: The Hong Kong government is miffed about U.S. investment firm BlackRock Inc. sealing a deal this month to purchase a controlling stake in a Hong Kong company that operates port facilities in the Panama Canal.
"We oppose the abusive use of coercion or bullying tactics in international economic and trade relations," Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee told reporters Tuesday in reference to that agreement, per Hong Kong state media. Rubio said last month that Hong Kong's CK Hutchison Holdings control of those facilities was an "unacceptable" security risk.
— THAIS SEEK INFO ON DEPORTED UYGHURS: The Thai government is suddenly all about the safety of those 40 Uyghur Muslims it deported to China this month. Thai Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai is leading a delegation to Xinjiang this week to check on the deportees, Radio Free Asia reported Tuesday. Bangkok may be trying to mitigate the diplomatic fallout of that incident, which included U.S. visa restrictions on current and former Thai officials linked to the deportation.
Beijing is playing it cool. "We welcome people from all walks of life in the international community to come and visit Xinjiang," Mao at the Chinese embassy said Tuesday.
HEADLINES
The Guardian: Melbourne residents receive letter offering $200k for information on Hong Kong pro-democracy activist
NPR: Political scientists seeing parallels between China and the U.S
ChinaFile: Former Chinese enemies increasingly aligned on Taiwan
The Diplomat: What Southeast Asian countries can learn from Vietnam's history of negotiating territorial disputes with China
HEADS UP
— FOREIGN CEOs BEIJING-BOUND: The Chinese government will host dozens of foreign senior business executives at the annual three-day China Development Forum in Beijing starting Saturday. A select few of those CEOs will get a rare meeting with Xi Jinping, Reuters reported Monday. Also in the crowd – Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) who the Financial Times reported last week is trying to persuade Trump to appoint the former Procter & Gamble executive to be the administration's special envoy to China. Daines declined to comment.
ONE BOOK, THREE QUESTIONS
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The Book: Eastward, Westward: A Life in Law
The Author: Jerome Cohen is the founder of New York University's U.S.-Asia Law Institute and an expert on U.S.-China relations.
Responses have been edited for length and clarity.
You write about your efforts since the early 1960s to improve U.S.-China ties. What is the current state of the relationship?
We’re obviously at a crucial point. We seem to be going the wrong way.
The Chinese seemed perplexed. They don’t know what to expect. I don’t know what Washington under Trump really has in store for them. So it’s much foggier — we don’t know what’s likely to happen and it’s very worrisome.
You have pioneered business, educational and civil society ties between the U.S. and China. Those links have collapsed in the past five years — why is that a problem?
We’re flying blind in terms of the U.S. understanding of China. Even those of us on the outside who try to specialize in China are perplexed.
China does a good job of hiding what its leadership thinks and to them, it’s an advantage. But I don’t think that it works to the advantage of the kind of peace that we’re hoping for. We need a resurrection of the institutional relations that fostered people-to-people ties. We ought to restore our consular relations. We ought to restore the various organizations that have modestly tried to interact with the Chinese such as nongovernmental organizations and the Peace Corps.
Beijing accuses the U.S. of "comprehensive containment, encirclement and suppression" of China. What do you make of that argument?
There's nothing wrong with containment. It depends how you do it. We’d be fools not to show some opposition to various things China is doing.
How should we respond to [Chinese aggression in] the South China Sea, or what they’re doing in Hong Kong? China, of course, can’t accept containment. But what should they reasonably expect from us?
Thanks to: Heidi Vogt, and digital producers Emma Cordover and Dean Southwell.
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