| | | |  | | By Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Sue Allan with Philippe J. Fournier | Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Ottawa Playbook | Follow Politico Canada Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it. → The very latest on DONALD TRUMP’s tariffs. → The Liberal leadership race enters the final stretch. → Polls tighten — at least for now. |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | 
A group of world leaders — including Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine but not U.S. President Donald Trump — spent Sunday afternoon at Lancaster House in London. | AP | LONDON CALLING — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU’s workweek will start in London today with an audience with KING CHARLES III. It will end in Ottawa on Sunday when Liberals pick a new leader. In between, maybe DONALD TRUMP will start a trade war. Over the weekend, Trudeau joined European leaders and Ukraine President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY at a security summit on Ukraine. U.K. Prime Minister KEIR STARMER, who hosted the gathering, announced: “We are at a crossroads in history.” POLITICO’s STEFAN BOSCIA reports on the gathering after which Starmer said “a number of countries” agreed to commit troops to a peacekeeping force in Ukraine in the event of a peace deal. Boscia said leaders are coming around to the view that an increased role in Ukraine's future security means greater military capacity, and in turn the financing to pay for it. "Those realities are likely to be front and center at a meeting of the EU's 27 national leaders in Brussels on Thursday." NATO chief MARK RUTTE emerged from Sunday's gathering to say he’d heard “new announcements” around the table for more European countries vowing to “ramp up defense spending.” He did not offer details. — Canada’s role: Asked by reporters if Canada plans to send peacekeepers to Ukraine down the road, Trudeau said everything is on the table. “We know that the Canadian military has ways that it can contribute,” he said. “We're not going to get ahead of the discussions on how to keep a peace that isn't yet in place.” — Not my problem: When pressed on Canada’s defense spending, Trudeau insisted Ottawa will work to do more. “I have no doubt that the next prime minister of Canada will continue to do just that,” he added. | | THREE THINGS WE'RE WATCHING | | | 
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said he expects the U.S. to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico this week, though he described the situation as “fluid.” | AP | ABOUT THE TRADE WAR — A 25 percent blanket tariff is set to go into effect against Canada and Mexico on Tuesday, maybe. On Sunday, U.S. Commerce Secretary HOWARD LUTNICK opened the door for still more details to come from DONALD TRUMP. “He's sort of thinking about right now, how exactly he wants to play it with Mexico and Canada, and that is a fluid situation,” he told Fox News. “There are going to be tariffs on Tuesday on Mexico and Canada. Exactly what they are, we're going to leave that for the president and his team to negotiate and, obviously, I'm talking to him all the time." Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE pointed out Sunday during a press conference that regardless of what Trump does, “we can’t rely on him. And we can’t rely on the Americans anymore.” — Over the weekend: Trump ordered an investigation that could lead to additional tariffs on billions of dollars of lumber from Canada and other countries. — Trump math: Any new tariff would be on top of an existing 14.54 percent trade remedy duty on Canadian softwood lumber. POLITICO's ARI HAWKINS reports that late Sunday evening the Trump administration revised its executive orders to apply the de minimis trade provision to “covered articles” in Canada and Mexico. — News you can use: JOANNA SMITH of The Logic reports on all the tariffs about to hit Canada — and which ones will hurt most. BATTLE FOR ANOTHER DAY — Canadian High Commissioner to the U.K. RALPH GOODALE says the decision from Buckingham Palace to stay clear of debate around Trump’s annexation threats is exactly as he’d have recommended. “Just dismiss it as sheer foolishness,” he said Saturday night in London. “Some rantings about the 51st state are completely ludicrous.” — A royal pain: Social media has been alive with calls for severed ties with the king. So much so that constitutional expert EMMETT MACFARLANE entered the fray. “King Charles has no discretion to wade into a diplomatic fight,” he explained. “His role as head of state is a formal and symbolic one.” For his part, Trudeau said he’d expected to speak to the king about matters of importance to Canada. “Nothing seems more important to Canadians right now than standing up for our sovereignty and our independence as a nation.” LIBERAL LEADERSHIP RACE — The next leader of the Liberal Party of Canada will be announced Sunday. Over the weekend: CHRYSTIA FREELAND joined comedian BILL MAHER for a one-on-one interview on the set of HBO’s “Real Time” in Los Angeles. MARK CARNEY played defense and announced he is renouncing his Irish and U.K. citizenship. STEPHANIE LEVITZ and EMILY HAWS of the Globe report that the race has entered a crucial phase: getting out the vote. Some 70,000 Liberals had cast a ballot as of Sunday morning. — In related reading: From CATHERINE LÉVESQUE, STEPHANIE TAYLOR and PATTI SONNTAG: Carney says he resigned from "all" his roles to run for Liberal leadership. Turns out he hasn't. | | FROM THE DESK OF 338CANADA | |
OBJECTS IN THE MIRROR — At the start of 2025, the Conservatives held a 25-plus point lead over the Liberals.
The latest polls tell a wildly different story. That gap has tightened considerably, with some surveys even suggesting a statistical tie. — The very latest: Léger measured the Conservatives below 40 percent for the first time since 2023, while the Liberals surged to 35 percent — their best result from Léger in more than three years. Abacus Data, Nanos Research and Innovative Research all show a significant Conservative drop alongside a Liberal surge. Ipsos and EKOS went further, placing the Liberals slightly ahead — their first lead in nearly two years. — The road to 172: The shift is visible in seat projections. In the latest 338Canada federal projection, the CPC averages 160 seats — below the 172-seat majority threshold — while the Liberals rise to 139 seats, their highest average since July 2023. — Start your engines: The Liberal leadership race concludes Sunday. If MARK CARNEY takes the helm and hypothetical polling holds, his arrival could further fuel the Liberals’ resurgence. That is, of course, a big if for the first-time politician who has played defense against Conservatives in recent days. — Public opinion can turn on a dime: Don’t count your chickens. Stay tuned here for updates from 338Canada. | | Where the leaders are | |
— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in London.
— Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE, Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET and NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH have not shared their public itineraries. — Green Co-Leader ELIZABETH MAY is in New York to attend the third Meeting of States Parties to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. | | DULY NOTED | |
— The PM has called a by-election in Halifax on April 14. Unless, of course, it’s preempted. The Liberals nominated SHANNON MIEDEMA on Saturday. New Democrats are countering with LISA ROBERTS. 338Canada projection: LPC likely, though it was tight at the start of February.
— At 10 a.m., CHRYSTIA FREELAND will visit a steel manufacturer in Hamilton, Ontario. — Canada's G7 website added a ministerial meeting to the calendar. Finance ministers and central bank governors will meet in Banff on May 20-22. — The Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada Conference 2025 is underway in Toronto. | | Talk of the town | |
TARIFF EVE — Twenty-four hours to go before a potentially destructive trade war that marks a fundamental shift in Canada-U.S. relations — or, you know, not, if the president hits pause.
Every day is a new day in Trumpworld. — Dealmaker-in-chief: Trump's name is on a well-known blueprint for this moment — part-memoir, part-manifesto — with ghostwriter TONY SCHWARTZ, who later famously distanced himself from the project. "The Art of the Deal" is both an exercise in mythmaking and a useful read for Trump 2.0 — even if you get stink eye at the cash of your local bookseller. Here’s a few bite-sized bits from the book on making deals — five points that are all at once timely again: → Primary motivation: "I don't do it for the money. I've got enough, much more than I'll ever need. I do it to do it. Deals are my art form. Other people paint beautifully on canvas or write wonderful poetry. I like making deals, preferably big deals. That's how I get my kicks." → Strength above all else: "The worst thing you can possibly do in a deal is seem desperate to make it. That makes the other guy smell blood, and then you're dead. The best thing you can do is deal from strength, and leverage is the biggest strength you can have.” → Fighting words: "Much as it pays to emphasize the positive, there are times when the only choice is confrontation. In most cases I'm very easy to get along with. I'm very good to people who are good to me. But when people treat me badly or unfairly or try to take advantage of me, my general attitude, all my life, has been to fight back very hard." → Compromise, kinda: "My style of deal-making is quite simple and straightforward. I aim very high, and then I just keep pushing and pushing and pushing to get what I'm after. Sometimes I settle for less than I sought, but in most cases I still end up with what I want." → No second-guessing: "I don't spend a lot of time worrying about what I should have done differently, or what's going to happen next. If you ask me exactly what the deals I'm about to describe all add up to in the end, I'm not sure I have a very good answer. Except that I've had a very good time making them." | | COUNTDOWNS | |
Your reminder of some key events edging ever closer.
— Sitting days until summer: 49, max. — Calendar days until Trump's across-the-board tariffs on Canadian goods come into force: 1 … the Bank of Canada's next rate announcement: 9 … G7 foreign ministers meet in Charlevoix, Quebec: 9 … Steel/aluminum tariffs come into force: 9 … Statistics Canada's next batch of inflation data: 15 … The House's scheduled return: 21. Which must-watch countdowns are missing from this list? Tell us! | | MEDIA ROOM | |
— The NYT’s MATINA STEVIS-GRIDNEFF and AMBER BRACKEN reported from the Canada-U.S. border between Coutts, Alberta, and Sweet Grass, Montana. They noted a new dynamic at the border: “Asylum seekers are fleeing north to Canada.”
— Top story on POLITICO this weekend: DOUG FORD’s landslide win sets stage for Trump fight. — POLITICO’s BEN SCHRECKINGER breaks down what’s really going on with Trump’s obsession with Greenland. — CATHERINE CULLEN, EMMA GODMERE and BENJAMIN LOPEZ STEVEN of CBC’s “The House” tagged along as Canadian Ambassador KIRSTEN HILLMAN and her team blitzed Washington in 75 meetings over two days to get Trump to back off his tariff threat. — From VJOSA ISAI of the NYT: How Canadians are making their anger toward the U.S. loud and clear. — From “The Fifth Estate” and CBC News: Is Trump’s tariff war motivated by Project 2025? — JANA G. PRUDEN weighed in from Gretzkyville where “The Great One” finds himself shunned by Edmonton fans. Meanwhile, KIRSTIE MCLELLAN DAY, who co-wrote "99: Stories of the Game" with Gretzky made an appeal in the Star: “For the love of God, leave Wayne alone.” | | PLAYBOOKERS | |
Birthdays: HBD to former Conservative MP BOB BENZEN and economist JIM STANFORD.
Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way. Spotted: MIKE MYERS, sporting a “Canada is not for sale” T-shirt at the close of “Saturday Night Live.” As the credits rolled, he mouthed instructions — “Elbows up” — to fellow Canadians in the audience. Conservative commentator SEAN SPEER, arguing that Canada "desperately needs its own DOGE." StrategyCorp's GARRY KELLER strongly disagrees. Madame Premier, partnering with Liberal leadership candidate CHRYSTIA FREELAND on a “The Future is Canadian” T-shirt. SARA ELDER, founder and owner of the brand and Calgary store, told Playbook, “I’d love to do this kind of collaboration with almost all parties and candidates — Conservative, Green, NDP and even other Liberal candidates.” Movers and shakers: Cabinet colleague LAWRENCE MACAULAY confirmed over the weekend that he will not run in the P.E.I. riding of Cardigan, a seat he has held since 1988. “The fact is the time has come,” he told DAVE STEWART of The Guardian. “Is this easy? I assure you, absolutely not.” Playbook learned who MacAulay called first following his announcement: JEAN CHRÉTIEN. DUNCAN WILSON is Parliament’s newest independent senator. Transport Minister ANITA ANAND made it official Friday — she is going to run in Oakville after all. Conservative MP GERALD SOROKA, who didn't secure a party nomination and won't seek another term in office, sent a farewell note to his constituents. From our colleagues in New York: ANDREW CUOMO has launched a comeback bid for NYC mayor. KELLY CRAFT has joined the board of the Alliance for Responsible Citizenship. Craft, a former U.S. ambassador to Canada and the U.N. in the first Trump administration, is also on the board of the Institute for the Study of War. Noted: The executive council of the Ontario Liberal Party voted in favor of BONNIE CROMBIE sticking around as leader. B.C. Conservative Leader JOHN RUSTAD fended off dissidents at a weekend convention. Transport Minister ANITA ANAND shared the roster of a new Supply Chain Advisory Council: LOUIS-MARIE BEAULIEU, SHELLY DE CARIA, CHRIS DINSDALE, JULIE GASCON, ERIC HARVEY, LAURA JONES, VINESH KOHLI, STEPHEN LASKOWSKI, CANDACE LIANG, MARK NEEDHAM, LANA PAYNE, MAGALI PICARD, TREVOR TOMBE, AJAY VIRMANI and PETER XOTTA. | | PROZONE | |
For Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter by MIKE BLANCHFIELD and SUE ALLAN: Joly: ‘Putin has no red lines.’
In other news for Pro readers: — Oil industry allies launch campaign against climate lawsuits. — Musk is ‘here to stay’ in the Trump admin, adviser says. — Top career pipeline safety official to exit amid cuts. — Green diplomacy survives as UN strikes deal on biodiversity finance. — Does Trump belong at the G7 table? Ottawa lawmaker says 'No.' | | TRIVIA | |
Friday's answer: Former Prime Minister PIERRE TRUDEAU helped induct HANK SNOW and JONI MITCHELL into the Canadian Music Hall of Fame at the Juno Awards.
Props to MARCEL MARCOTTE, MICHAEL ZINCK, JOHN MATHESON, GREG MACEACHERN, LAURA JARVIS, RAY DEL BIANCO, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, MALCOLM MCKAY, JENN KEAY and DARRYL DAMUDE. Today’s question: The first organized game of ice hockey took place on this date in history. Tell us where. Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Writing tomorrow's Playbook: NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY. Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | |
