WHAT’S NEXT FOR TRUMP’S TARIFFS? Ag committee lawmakers and farmers are closely watching how Donald Trump’s next tariff moves could impact markets and production plans this year. The president backed off on tariffs on Mexico and Canada for now, which some ag allies are counting as a win. But others are bracing themselves for more turmoil. “The issue at this point is just the uncertainty that will become crippling and costly if it continues,” said one farmer advocate, granted anonymity to air concerns about the administration’s policies. “As it stands now, farmers are finding their way through the woods, and the administration is offering a flashlight that kind of flickers off and on.” Even with minor wins like smaller tariffs on potash, farmers’ economic stresses will grow more dire as they try to “read the tea leaves” of Trump’s next move, according to Brian Kuehl, executive director of Farmers for Free Trade. “It's hard to plan when you don't know if you're going to get into a trade dispute with one of the three largest trading partners,” Kuehl told MA. “Farmers are already on the edge. … If you have another disruption like we had in 2018, 2019, I really fear we're going to see another farm crisis and a lot of farmers go out of business.” Minnesota Rep. Angie Craig, the top Democrat on the House Ag Committee, called the negotiations “tariff whiplash” that will prompt retaliation from trading partners. “Strategic tariffs are one thing, but this is bad policy,” she said. What's next: Some ag state lawmakers are expecting the negotiations to stretch on. “Like any negotiation, there's gonna be give and take probably for the next several months,” Senate Ag Chair John Boozman (R-Ark.) told MA. “At the end of the day, we want farmers to wind up in a better position than they are.” Republicans on Capitol Hill — who have received an earful from ag groups asking for exemptions — are counting on Trump to create stronger trade agreements and markets for farmers. “Without a trade agreement, our commodity prices are still low,” said Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.). “We're hoping that the president's team will put together a good trade agreement so that we can actually start marketing our food to the rest of the world again.” DAIRY DUEL CHURNING: Trump said Friday that he will soon sign an executive order imposing a tariff on the Canadian lumber and dairy industries, our Daniel Desrochers reported. “Canada has been ripping us off for years on tariffs for lumber and for dairy products,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “Two hundred and fifty percent, nobody ever talks about that 250 percent tariff, which is taking advantage of our farmers. So that's not going to happen anymore.” Reality check: Canada does not have a flat 250 percent tariff on either product. But the country does support its dairy industry by restricting imports through a quota of imports for foreign countries and then charging high tariffs — between 200 and 300 percent — on any imports that exceed those quotas. Negotiators were able to secure more market access for U.S. dairy producers when they first negotiated the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement trade deal during the first Trump administration, but have been disappointed in the results. “We have been fighting with Canada since before the USMCA passed,” Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) told MA last week. “I would agree with Secretary [Brooke] Rollins, but also Secretary [Howard] Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative [Jamieson] Greer that we need to have a full-throated defense of our dairy farmers with regard to that.” Kuehl encouraged the Trump administration to work out the dairy conflict with Canada in a new USMCA agreement. “There's rationale in these arguments, but I think a lot of it's about process,” he said. “Until that trade agreement is renegotiated or until we pull out of the trade agreement, we shouldn't be putting tariffs on our neighbors.” Related reading: President Donald Trump is confident that the country’s economy has a bright future — but he isn’t ruling out a 2025 recession just yet. More from our Greg Svirnovskiy here.
| 
