Debt deal dismay goes left and right

May 28, 2023

By Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza

Presented by

With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, followed by Representatives Patrick McHenry and Garret Graves, arrives at a press conference in the U.S. Capitol.

Speaker Kevin McCarthy and President Joe Biden struck a deal to address the debt limit on Saturday. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

DRIVING THE DAY

THEY HAVE A DEAL — President JOE BIDEN and House Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY have reached an agreement to raise the debt ceiling through 2024, an accord that comes just eight days before the June 5 X-date. Read the must-know details here

Now comes the hard part: Getting it through the House.

The final text is expected to be released today, but McCarthy and his team have wasted no time in launching into full sales mode. During a GOP conference call last night, Rep. STEPHANIE BICE (R-Okla.) asked the speaker what victories Democrats got out of this agreement. "There isn't one thing,” McCarthy said. “There's nothing that they asked [for] that I would let in. … I just kept saying no." McCarthy also boasted about securing an “impressive” win on new work requirements for food stamps and TANF, noting that many Democrats called those changes a “red line,” but ultimately caved.

Republican leaders were ready to go with a list of talking points on the deal — and you’re already hearing them on TV. On “Fox News Sunday” this morning, McCarthy predicted that a majority of House Republicans will back the deal, arguing that “95%” of Republicans are “very excited” about the agreement.

That assessment of the deal’s popularity is far from universal.

ON THE RIGHT:

Rep. CHIP ROY (R-Texas) said that the only way 95% of the GOP conference would support it is if “they haven’t been educated yet on what a turd sandwich this ‘deal’ is. They will be.”

“This ‘deal’ is insanity,”said Rep. RALPH NORMAN (R-S.C.), who told Playbook weeks ago that McCarthy promised him not to settle for a deal that did not include all the provisions in Republicans' own debt ceiling package.

Rep. DAN BISHOP (R-N.C.) balked at “RINOs congratulating McCarthy for getting almost zippo,” a tweet he punctuated with the barfing emoji. McCarthy responded on “Fox News Sunday”: “Well, that’s OK, because more than 95 percent of all those in the conference were very excited.”

“No one claiming to be a conservative could justify a YES vote,”said Rep. BOB GOOD (R-Va.).

“RONALD REAGAN said: ‘If you got seventy-five or eighty percent of what you were asking for, I say, you take it and fight for the rest later,’said Rep. KEN BUCK (R-Colo.), who voted against Republicans’ original plan in the House. “Speaker McCarthy's version: ‘If you can get five or six percent of what you were asking for, you take the deal and claim victory.’”

McCarthy does appear to have the support of one influential conservative: Freedom Caucus founder JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio). On the GOP conference call last night, Jordan shared his understanding that for the first time, Uncle Sam will spend less money this year than the year before. “Seems like a pretty darn good deal to me,” Jordan said.

To be clear: There was never any expectation that the hardest of the hard-line conservatives would vote for a deal that Democrats would swallow. But Jordan's support is a significant vote of confidence, and could go a long way toward convincing the mainstream conservatives who make up the bulk of the House GOP that they can vote yes and not face too much blowback on their right flank.

McCarthy may also have some problems in the Senate.

On “Fox News Sunday,” Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) blasted the deal for not boosting the Pentagon by a larger amount. He called the deal “sequestration 2.0,” referring to the painful automatic cuts lawmakers came up with as part of the 2011 debt ceiling agreement. “I will not adopt the Biden defense budget and call it a success,” Graham said. "I like Kevin a lot, but don't tell me the Biden defense budget fully funds the military.”

And further to the right, Sen. MIKE LEE (R-Utah) voiced his displeasure with the agreement. “Promise of *future* spending cuts = fake,”he tweeted.

ON THE LEFT: Democrats are pissed that Republicans got a briefing on the deal last night — and that they won’t get the same until 5 p.m. tonight.

“Dems haven’t been told anything,” one angry senior Democrat texted us last night, adding that rank-and-file are “furious that they will learn about [the details of the deal] from Republicans and Sunday talk shows.”

To be fair, the White House did circulate an overview of the agreement to every Democratic lawmaker and chief of staff last night. (We got our hands on the material, which you can read here.) And we’re told administration officials were making calls to individual members last night as well.

But that’s a far cry from the effort Republicans made last night to articulate to members why they believed the deal was a win and how they should make their case to the public.

This morning, Democratic lawmakers have been on text threads trying to figure out what claims by the GOP are correct and which are false. Did the deal really cut spending? Or did it freeze it? How bad are these work requirements?

The lack of communication was on full display on the Sunday talk shows this morning.

Rep. JIM HIMES (D-Conn.) noted that the agreement doesn’t include any Democratic priorities — though he mused that some of his colleagues will support it because it doesn’t look anything like Republicans’ original debt ceiling bill. (We’ll note that if you can’t get the lawmaker who represents a large swath of financial industry executives to praise the agreement to avert default, you might have a problem.)

On CNN’s “State of the Union,” Rep. PRAMILA JAYAPAL (D-Wash.) appeared to be thirsting for more information as well, saying she was trying to “wade through spin right now.” She said she wasn’t happy about some of the details she’d heard, and that it was “unfortunate” that Biden opened the door to GOP demands for more stringent work requirements.

But she also mused that new work requirement exceptions — which would shield veterans and the homeless from the new beefed-up demands — may nullify the greater concerns. She didn't yet know.

That’s an encouraging sign for the White House. The fact that Jayapal, who leads the Congressional Progressive Caucus, didn’t just come out and blast the agreement suggests that the administration has a chance to win votes from some on the far left.

Still, asked whether the White House and Democratic leadership should worry about getting progressives behind the debt limit deal, Jayapal was resolute: “Yes, they have to worry. Yes.”

Speaking on CBS’ “Face the Nation,” House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES guaranteed that a default would be avoided and predicted the deal would pass, but demurred when asked how many House Dems would back it.

"It's my understanding that [Republicans] are committed to producing at least 150 votes, if not more,” Jeffries said.

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WHAT’S NEXT? — McCarthy and Biden are speaking early this afternoon to seal the deal. With bill text expected to drop today, the House will be teed up to vote as early as Wednesday (House Republicans’ require that bills be released at least 72 hours before receiving a floor vote).

But before it hits the floor, keep an eye on the House Rules Committee, which has to pass a resolution governing the process for passage.

Last night, Trump ally and former OMB Director RUSS VOUGHT suggested that conservatives on the rules panel might be able to put up a fight to stop the bill from hitting the floor or change it in some way by offering amendments.

Here’s the problem with that idea: Democrats on the panel are largely considered team players and could rally with the other GOP lawmakers on the Rules panel to protect the terms of the deal, nullifying the influence of the far right.

Good Sunday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. The series finale of “Succession” is tonight at 9. Who’ll end up in charge of Waystar/Royco? Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

SUNDAY BEST …

— McCarthy on the debt limit deal on “Fox News Sunday”: “Maybe it doesn't do everything for everyone, but this is a step in the right direction that no one thought we would be at today.”

More on the deal: “I’ll debate this bill with anybody because at the end of the day, is it everything I wanted? No. But we don't control all of it. But it is the biggest rescission in history. It is the biggest cut in Congress has ever voted in that process.”

On his relationship with Jeffries: “I don't work with Hakeem to say, ‘Oh, I need these many votes.’ I think you’re going to get a majority of Republicans voting for this bill. This is a good bill for the American public. The president agreed with this bill. So, I think there’s going to be a lot of Democrats that go vote for it, too.”

— Rep. DUSTY JOHNSON (R-S.D.) on some GOP criticisms of the debt limit deal, on CNN’s “State of the Union”: “Listen, there will be Freedom Caucus people who vote for this package. So, when you're saying that conservatives have concerns, it is really the most colorful conservatives. … Those votes were never really in play. We get that. But, overwhelmingly, Republicans in this conference are going to support the deal. How could they not? It is a fantastic deal.”

— New Hampshire Gov. CHRIS SUNUNU on his decision timeline for entering the 2024 race, on “State of the Union”: “Pretty soon, we’ll make a decision, probably in the next week or two.”

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TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week’s must-read opinion pieces.

“Seventeen thoughts on the debt ceiling deal,” by Slow Boring’s Matthew Yglesias
“Can Republicans Hope To Outrun Trump In 2024 House Races?” by Cook Political Report’s Amy Walter
“Will DeSantis Destroy Conservatism as We Know It?” by NYT’s David French
“Who Is Going to Regulate AI?” by Blair Levin and Larry Downes for HBR
“A Firearm-Owning Republican’s Solutions for Gun Violence,” by Will Hurd for The Atlantic
“Ron DeSantis Has a Problem. It’s Florida.” by POLITICO’s Charlie Mahtesian
“Did Merkel Pave the Way for the War in Ukraine?” by WSJ’s Bojan Pancevski
“The Far Right Is Splintering,” by The Atlantic’s Juliette Kayyem
“Twitter Is a Far-Right Social Network,” by The Atlantic’s Charlie Warzel
“What Josh Hawley and the Right Get Wrong About Manhood,” by Washington Monthly’s Will Norris
“Tim Keller’s Quiet Revival and My Place Between Two Worlds,” by The Dispatch’s Chris Stirewalt
“The Supreme Court just gutted the Clean Water Act. It could be devastating,” by Richard Lazarus for WaPo
“Is the Surge to the Left Among Young Voters a Trump Blip or the Real Deal?” by NYT’s Thomas Edsall
“Tim Scott and the Politics of Forgiveness” by Lance Morrow for WSJ
“My father, Henry Kissinger, is turning 100. This is his guide to longevity,” by David Kissinger for WaPo

BIDEN’S SUNDAY — Earlier today, the Bidens traveled from Camp David to New Castle, Del. Still to come:

1:35 p.m.: The Bidens will leave New Castle to return to the White House, arriving at 2:25 p.m.

VP KAMALA HARRIS’ SUNDAY — The VP has nothing on her public schedule.

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PHOTO OF THE DAY

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his wife Emine Erdogan cast their ballots at a polling station during the second round of the presidential election in Istanbul, on Sunday, May 28. | Murad Sezer/Pool Photo via AP

PLAYBOOK READS

9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR

1. TEFLON DON VS. STICKY RON: Many in the Republican Party were hoping to hit the reset button for 2024 — moving on from DONALD TRUMP and everything that came along with him. But with a large primary field taking shape and a number of would-be candidates still waiting in the wings, warning signs of a 2016 replay are once again flashing in the GOP, our colleagues Adam Wren, Natalie Allison, Meridith McGraw and Lisa Kashinsky write from Nashua, N.H. In other words: GOP insiders fear that “Teflon Don” is back.

“According to interviews with nearly a dozen GOP strategists, former candidates and party insiders, the intraparty dynamics now at play — and Trump’s own alchemical grip on the base — suggest a primary where a constellation of Republicans once again risk splitting the non-Trump vote in early nominating states.”

That’s bad news for RON DeSANTIS, as the “rapidly ballooning field, combined with Mr. Trump’s seemingly unbreakable core of support” could imperil the Florida governor’s “ability to consolidate the non-Trump vote, and could mirror the dynamics that powered Mr. Trump’s takeover of the party in 2016,” report NYT’s Shane Goldmacher, Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman.

Questions about the component pieces of a winning DeSantis coalition have only ballooned given “the scattered nature of his audio-only Twitter launch event” this week, write the Tampa Bay Times’ Emily Mahoney and Kirby Wilson. “Young and old, white collar and blue, Never Trump and Ultra MAGA — DeSantis will likely need support from a group of voters with wide-ranging priorities to best former President Donald Trump for the GOP nomination.”

He’ll also need to reverse trends like the one shown in a new L.A. Times poll, writes Seema Mehta: “Trump has the support of 44% of California’s likely Republican primary voters, while DeSantis was backed by 26%, according to the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll co-sponsored by The Times. That’s a notable reversal of their standings three months ago, when DeSantis led Trump by 8 percentage points among the state’s GOP voters.”

The MAGA money machine: “The race to dethrone small-dollar Don,” by Jessica Piper

2. DEEP IN THE HEART: The intraparty drama in Texas is intensifying. The Texas House of Representatives voted yesterday to impeach state AG KEN PAXTON by a whopping 121-23 vote, despite a plea from Trump to drop the effort. Paxton is now suspended from office while the Texas Senate takes up a trial.

“The vote revealed substantial divisions within the Republican Party of Texas — the largest, richest and most powerful state GOP party in the United States. Although the party has won every statewide election for a quarter-century and has controlled both houses of the Legislature since 2003, it has deep underlying fissures, many of them exacerbated by Trump’s rise and influence,” The Texas Tribune’s Zach Despart and James Barragán write.

3. THE DIFI DILEMMA: NYT’s Annie Karni has a look at the increased caretaking role Sen. DIANNE FEINSTEIN’s staff is taking as the ailing California Democrat makes her return to the Senate. “They push her wheelchair, remind her how and when she should vote and step in to explain what is happening when she grows confused. They stay with her in the cloak room just off the Senate floor, where Ms. Feinstein has taken to waiting her turn to vote, then appearing in the doorway to register her ‘aye’ or ‘nay’ from the outer edge of the chamber,” Karni writes.

“All senators rely heavily on staff. But for years, Ms. Feinstein’s memory problems have meant that she has needed far more support than other senators. Briefing her on the news of the day requires longer sessions and more background information. … Since she has returned to work on a limited schedule as she recovers from shingles and multiple serious complications, Ms. Feinstein’s staff has made sure she is never alone and is heavily protected.”

Related read: “California Democrats divided on Dianne Feinstein serving to term’s end,” by WaPo’s Maeve Reston

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4. ONE TO WATCH: “Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer Charts a ‘Pragmatic-Progressive’ Course,” by WSJ’s Ben Kesling: Michigan Gov. GRETCHEN WHITMER “and Democratic leaders said they are building support for future elections. Issues like abortion and guns, considered so polarizing in the U.S., can be harnessed and made into successful policy and politics, they said. … Some Democrats say Whitmer is doing what many others in the party have tried, but failed to do: pursue a long-held version of a progressive goal but not in a way that’s likely to provoke a backlash.”

5. THE DUO DYNAMIC: “Biden circle seeks to boost Harris ahead of 2024,” by WaPo’s Cleve Wootson Jr.: “ANITA DUNN, one of Biden’s closest key political strategists, has recently focused more on [Harris’] schedule and public events, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue. Dunn recently directed the White House public engagement and political teams to help schedule events with Harris, having her promote popular causes like abortion rights and infrastructure spending. … The president and his allies, meanwhile, have made an evident effort to defend Harris and highlight her role in recent weeks, with Biden saying in a television interview that she is ‘really very, very good.’”

Related read: “Biden hopes to get re-elected with a little help from his friends,” by NBC’s Alex Seitz-Wald: “Biden’s nascent re-election campaign has invested early — before it even has a headquarters and ahead of what former President BARACK OBAMA did in 2012 — in what veteran operatives say is an unusually robust operation to tap the star power of the Democratic Party, most of which resides outside the White House.”

6. DREAMS DERAILED: “How ‘Buy America’ could derail high-speed trains,” by Minho Kim: “Biden is the country’s most famous champion of passenger trains — but some fellow supporters fear his policies could squelch the last hopes of bringing true high-speed rail to the U.S. Biden’s strengthening of federal ‘Buy America’ funding requirements might make high-speed rail impossible to build in the U.S., transportation advocates say. They had hoped to see super-fast trains lessen Americans’ reliance on automobiles and aviation, reducing a major source of greenhouse gas pollution.”

7. GIVE A HOOT: “You’ve Never Heard of Him, but He’s Remaking the Pollution Fight,” by NYT’s Coral Davenport: “RICHARD REVESZ is changing the way the government calculates the cost and benefits of regulation, with far-reaching implications for climate change.”

8. WAR IN UKRAINE: “Russia launched ‘largest drone attack’ on Ukrainian capital before Kyiv Day; 1 killed,” by AP’s Susie Blann and Elise Morton in Kyiv

9. FOR YOUR RADAR: “Saudi Arabia, Russia Ties Under Strain Over Oil-Production Cuts,” by WSJ’s Summer Said and Benoit Faucon: “Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, has expressed its anger to Russia for not following through fully on its pledge to throttle production in response to Western sanctions.”

GET READY FOR GLOBAL TECH DAY: Join POLITICO Live as we launch our first Global Tech Day alongside London Tech Week on Thursday, June 15. Register now for continuing updates and to be a part of this momentous and program-packed day! From the blockchain, to AI, and autonomous vehicles, technology is changing how power is exercised around the world, so who will write the rules? REGISTER HERE.

PLAYBOOKERS

Lisa Murkowski tried to sell Elon Musk on the virtues of fresh salmon.

John Yarmuth seems happy to not be caught up in the debt limit drama.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) … Rudy Giuliani … Jessica Anderson of Heritage Action … Natalie Yezbick of Sen. John Cornyn’s (R-Texas) office … Alpine Group’s Keenan Austin Reed … Mark Greenbaum of Rep. Bill Pascrell’s (D-N.J.) office … Lauren Mandelker … The 19th’s Emily Ramshaw … Andy Stone of Meta … WaPo’s Pradnya (P.J.) Joshi … Lisa Wallenda Picard … Chris Downing … Uber’s Josh Gold … Julie Hershey Carr … Herald Group’s Colin Hensel … Edelman’s Chris Donahoe ... Robb Harleston … TSA’s Brian Kelly … Adelle Nazarian … former Reps. Steve King (R-Iowa), Scott Rigell (R-Va.) and Tom Petri (R-Wis.) … Christy Felling … Marty Kramer … Katharine Weymouth

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