| | | | |  | | By Joe Gould, Alexander Ward, Matt Berg and Ari Hawkins | |  “We've been assured that after the election, regardless of the winner, that Sweden will be recognized as a NATO ally,” Rep. Michael McCaul said of Turkey's influence on Sweden’s membership in NATO. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt The chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee tells NatSec Daily he is generally open to selling F-16 fighter jets to Turkey, even if President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN wins reelection on Sunday. That’s a major shift for Rep. MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas), and his change from “no” to “yes” makes the arms sale that much closer to reality. The four leaders of HFAC and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee must all green light the $20 billion transaction for it to go through, even though it is fully backed by the White House. An important caveat: McCaul hastened to add that all four of the lawmakers currently agree on barring sales today. But the Texan said he believes they will approve the transfer once Turkey ratifies Sweden’s membership in NATO, and after recent approvals for Greece to buy U.S.-made F-35 warplanes and to get upgrades to its F-16s. “We've been assured that after the election, regardless of the winner, that Sweden will be recognized as a NATO ally,” McCaul said. Rep. GREGORY MEEKS (D-N.Y.), HFAC’s top Democrat, has broader conditions than McCaul, and they include Ankara halting its belligerence toward Greece, which could come after the election ends. “As of right now, I'm not in favor of the F-16 sales to Turkey,” Meeks said. “I want those elections to be resolved, and then I have to see some action from Turkey. Absent that action, I’m against it. And blocking Sweden is one of those actions that I'm looking to see — is one — and there are some others.” That aligns Meeks, roughly, with SFRC Chair BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.), who repeats that Turkey (read: Erdoğan) must radically shift its foreign policy before delivery. It’s not only the Sweden issue for him, but also ending aggression toward Greece — a fellow NATO ally — ceasing support for Azerbaijan against Armenia and releasing journalists and dissidents from prison. Will Menendez change his mind? Insiders are split. A Republican congressional aide, asked whether Menendez would shift course following Sweden’s entry into NATO, said “there could be movement.” Other staffers from both parties, similarly granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive subject, insist the senator gave himself little wiggle room to back down after just that one decision. “I think it will be a matter of what Turkey’s leadership does, and it doesn’t look like there’s going to be a leadership change in Turkey,” said a Senate aide. National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters Wednesday he’s “not aware of any assurances one way or the other about” a post-election shift on the Hill in approving F-16s to Turkey. But the sale might also hinge more on U.S. foreign policy priorities than those of Turkey. The administration “is going to want to please Erdoğan in some way to try to reset the bad relations…The F-16 is something they think is very doable,” argued the Project on Middle East Democracy’s MERVE TAHIROGLU. “The White House can put enough pressure on Menendez because, at the end of the day, he's really the only one left that has this position.”
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Unrivaled.
The F-35 delivers the unrivaled advantage for our pilots, nation, and partners. A decisive differentiator in near-peer warfare, the F-35 is the most advanced node in 21st century security network-centric architecture. Learn more. | | | | | WHAT CAN BROWN DO FOR U.S.?: President JOE BIDEN officially nominated Gen. C.Q. BROWN, the Air Force’s top officer, as the next Joint Chiefs chair. (Of course, you already knew Brown was the pick after Alex, LARA SELIGMAN and PAUL McLEARY’s scoop earlier this month.) “He has an unmatched, firsthand knowledge of our operational theaters and a strategic vision to understand how they all work together to ensure the security for the American people,” Biden said outside the White House Thursday. “With General Brown as chairman, I know I'll be able to rely on his advice as a military strategist and as a leader of military innovation, dedicated to keeping our armed forces the best in the world.” If confirmed, Brown would become the first Black Joint Chiefs chair in 30 years, since the late COLIN POWELL held the position in the GEORGE H.W. BUSH administration (he is also the only Black person to ever lead a military service, as Powell was never chief of staff of the Army). It would also be the first time in the nation’s history that the Pentagon’s top military and civilian positions are held by Black people. SURPRISE SPREAKER: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY shocked Johns Hopkins University graduates by delivering the commencement address on Thursday, thanking the U.S. for its support and urging students to treasure their time, as Matt reports. “The United States has also not lost a single day in helping Ukraine repel the Russian aggression,” Zelenskyy said. “President Biden, a strong bipartisan coalition in Congress and most of all the American people have … risen to this occasion and are leading the free world to secure freedom in Europe.” Unlike American students, young Ukrainians don’t have as much control over the time they have due to ongoing attacks from Russia, he said. “Will our air defense systems be able to save all the lives at risk? What moment in the battle can be the most risky and which one could be decisive?” Zelenskyy asked. “And how long will this war last?” UKRAINE DID IT: U.S. officials tell the New York Times that one of Ukraine’s military or intelligence units was “likely” behind the drone attack on the Kremlin. “The agencies reached their preliminary assessment in part through intercepted communications in which Russian officials blamed Ukraine and other communications in which Ukrainian officials said they believed their country was responsible for the attack,” JULIAN BARNES, ADAM ENTOUS, ERIC SCHMITT and ANTON TROIANOVSKI report. Confidence that the Ukrainian government directly authorized the May 3 attack is “low” because there’s still no evidence about who, exactly, was involved. This finding follows a trend of Ukrainian, or at least pro-Ukrainian, units executing assassinations of pro-Kremlin figures, attacks on Russian border towns and explosions of key energy pipelines. RUSSIAN NUKE DEAL: Russian Defense Minister SERGEI SHOIGU signed an agreement with his Belarusian counterpart on Thursday to store Moscow’s nuclear weapons in the neighboring country, the Associated Press’ YURAS KARMANAU reports. Control of the weapons will remain with the Kremlin, and it’s unclear how many nukes will be stored in Belarus. The move is a direct result of Russia’s perception of increased Western aggression toward Moscow, the military leaders said. “In the context of an extremely sharp escalation of threats on the western borders of Russia and Belarus, a decision was made to take countermeasures in the military-nuclear sphere,” Shoigu said. Belarusian Defense Minister VIKTOR KHRENIN called the deal “an effective response to the aggressive policy of countries unfriendly to us.” IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe and @_AriHawkins.
| | DEFUTRE OF DIGITAL CAMPAIGNING: The pro-RON DeSANTIS Super PAC Never Back Down used altered footage and audio to depict fighter jets flying overhead in a new video supporting the Florida governor’s 2024 campaign launch, Axios’ ALEX THOMPSON reports. That’s the latest example of political campaign advertisements using realistic, digitally altered videos to support or attack 2024 presidential candidates. The video, called “A President for the People” includes a scene from DeSantis’ speech in November of last year in Port St. Lucie. While jets flew above him in Wednesday's campaign ad, actual video of DeSantis’ 2022 speech shows there wasn’t a military flyover. The video comes after DeSantis’ Twitter Spaces campaign launch had some technical difficulties. The app repeatedly crashed during the event as thousands of listeners attempted to tune in to the governor’s official announcement, per our own KELLY GARRITY. “It was bold. It turned out to be a mistake,” the conservative radio host ERICK ERICKSON emailed supporters about DeSantis’ announcement on Twitter, adding that it is “recoverable,” per our own SALLY GOLDENBERG and MERIDITH MCGRAW.
| | | | GET READY FOR GLOBAL TECH DAY: Join POLITICO Live as we launch our first Global Tech Day alongside London Tech Week on Thursday, June 15. Register now for continuing updates and to be a part of this momentous and program-packed day! From the blockchain, to AI, and autonomous vehicles, technology is changing how power is exercised around the world, so who will write the rules? REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | PENTAGON’S CYBER STRATEGY: The Defense department’s new cyber strategy is focusing on intelligence gathering, coordination with allies, and incorporating new technology into domestic operations, according to a summary expected Thursday, per our own MAGGIE MILLER. (For Pros!) The strategy, the first for DoD since 2018, is being released after years of heightened cyber threats against the U.S., including ransomware attacks on critical infrastructure and increased threats from nations like China and Russia. It is designed to complement the White House’s National Cyber Strategy and is under last year’s National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy. “China is a very different challenge than Russia in the cyber domain, in that the PRC has the ability, through how it puts pressure on its technology companies and how it engages in international standards setting and rulemaking, to shape the cyber domain in ways favorable to them,” one senior defense official told POLITICO in an interview. The full strategy will be made public this summer.
| | | INVESTIGATE PRICE GOUGERS: Five lawmakers are urging Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN to investigate defense contractors that are heightening prices to extract more money from the U.S. government. “The DoD can no longer expect Congress or the American taxpayer to underwrite record military spending while simultaneously failing to account for the hundreds of billions it hands out every year to spectacularly profitable private corporations,” wrote Sens. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.), CHUCK GRASSLEY (R-Iowa), ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.), MIKE BRAUN (R-Ind.) and RON WYDEN (D-Ore.) in a letter. They demand an “update” on the Pentagon’s “efforts to investigate the price gouging.” The letter follows a 60 Minutes Sunday program that dug into the price gouging issue following a six-month investigation. Here’s a taste of what CBS News reported: “In the competitive environment before the companies consolidated, a shoulder-fired stinger missile cost $25,000 in 1991.” Now that Raytheon is the sole supplier, “it costs more than $400,000 to replace each missile sent to Ukraine. Even accounting for inflation and some improvements, that's a seven-fold increase.”
| | | | NO GO CODEL: The House Select Committee on China led by chair MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wis.) has canceled a bipartisan congressional delegation trip to Asia scheduled to depart this weekend, three House staffers granted anonymity because they were unauthorized to speak on the record told NSD today. One of the Codel destinations was Taiwan, Bloomberg reported earlier today. The cancelation is due to the need for House members to be available to vote on a possible debt limit extension bill in the coming days, the staffers said. The committee’s press officer declined to comment. The planned Codel was to be the capstone of a flurry of committee travel since it launched in March that has included trips to South Florida, Silicon Valley and the United Kingdom. Gallagher and the China committee have made improving Taiwan’s ability to defend itself from Chinese aggression a centerpiece of its efforts to counter Beijing’s threats against the self-governing island. Those efforts included a package of ten policy recommendations rolled out on Wednesday— which included clearing the backlog of U.S. weapons shipments promised to Taiwan —to deter a possible Chinese invasion. SMITH 'OPEN' TO CLUSTER MUNITIONS: HASC ranking member ADAM SMITH (D-Wash.) said he's open to the U.S. providing Ukraine with dual-purpose improved conventional munitions, or DPICMS — even though he still has reservations Top Republicans have pressed Biden to send the cluster bombs, but Smith says he still has concerns about the danger posed by unexploded ordnance. He called them "a weapon that we should strive to make sure is not used.” "Thing is, the Russians are using them all over Ukraine," Smith told our own CONNOR O’BRIEN in an interview (for Pros!). "And the Ukrainians want to use it to take back their territory. It's their country, OK? So as much as I don't like cluster munitions with any kind of a dud rate, I'm open to the conversation."
| | BIDEN THEIR TIME: It’s been three months since CHRIS INGLIS, the country’s first national cyber director, left his post, and nobody outside the White House has a good idea of why his successor hasn’t been named yet. Even Rep. Gallagher told Morning Cyber (for Pros!) he hasn’t received a response to the letter he and Sen. ANGUS KING (I-Me.) sent the White House two weeks ago. But whatever is to blame, there’s mounting concern the delay is opening a wound — and leaving some scar tissue. “The president’s failure to nominate a national cyber director … leaves us increasingly vulnerable to cyberattacks,” Gallagher said in a statement. “It also undermines the importance of the position and signals to the rest of the world that he is not prioritizing cyber security across the federal government.”
| | | | DON’T MISS POLITICO’S HEALTH CARE SUMMIT: The Covid-19 pandemic helped spur innovation in health care, from the wide adoption of telemedicine, health apps and online pharmacies to mRNA vaccines. But what will the next health care innovations look like? Join POLITICO on Wednesday June 7 for our Health Care Summit to explore how tech and innovation are transforming care and the challenges ahead for access and delivery in the United States. REGISTER NOW. | | | | | | | | | — RICK WATERS, deputy assistant secretary of State for China and Taiwan, is set to step down from his post as State’s top China policy official in June, Reuters’ MICHAEL MARTINA and HUMEYRA PAMUK reported late Wednesday. He will remain a member of the senior foreign service. — ELAINE LURIA, the former House member representing Virginia’s second district, has joined the board of BAE Systems. The retired Navy commander was the only Democrat to vote against repealing the 2002 Iraq War authorization for the use of military force two years ago, Insider’s BRYAN METZGER pointed out.
| | — TIM MAK, The Counteroffensive: Ukraine’s female partisans train for action behind enemy lines; Counteroffensive turns one month! — CAROLINE de GRUYTER, Foreign Policy: Europe’s losers have become its winners again — ALEXANDRE BISH, War On The Rocks: Tempting turmoil in Sudan: How Chadian rebels in Sudan’s conflict would further regional instability
| | | |   | | | | | — Brookings Institution, 8:30 a.m.: India’s role in the international order — Atlantic Council, 10 a.m.: #AtlanticDebrief episode featuring the Hon. MARK BRZEZINSKI, U.S. Ambassador to the Republic of Poland Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who wouldn’t sell us anything. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who always has a few spare F-16s laying around.
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