| | | | |  | | By Kyle Duggan | Presented by Google | Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Kyle | Follow Politico Canada Welcome to Ottawa Playbook. I’m your host, Kyle Duggan, with Nick Taylor-Vaisey. Today, the stakes in Portage-Lisgar, a gift of sorts for the PM in Montana, and foreign interference still dominating the House agenda.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | |
BEYOND THUNDERDOME — Is today the beginning of the end of Mad Max and his People’s Party of Canada? Or are they on track to reach their zenith?
The bucolic riding of Portage-Lisgar is a long way away from beautiful Beauce and its dairy farmers. About 27 hours by car, give or take, over a stretch of roughly 2,500 kilometers of highway. But MAXIME BERNIER is undaunted by the physical distance of the Manitoba seat from his old Quebec riding, or the little French spoken there, and more focused on the distance in vote from his party’s previous candidate and the riding’s long-dominant Conservative incumbent CANDICE BERGEN in the last election: His party placed second, at around 22 percent, although trailing some 14,000 votes behind. Bernier is widely expected to announce today he will enter the byelection race to square off against BRANDEN LESLIE. When reached, he would not confirm this to Playbook. But he said there is a “huge probability.” And that he is confident his party will take the riding by showing voters PIERRE POILIEVRE is a “fake conservative.” And that upon winning, he would then move to said riding from Montreal to continue his fight in the “culture war” against “woke-ism.” Hypothetically, of course. — Make or break: Conservative insider FRED DELOREY, who made waves with his substack debut earlier this week, said the Conservatives will in all likelihood win the seat, but everyone should take the race seriously. Bernier’s message of freedom still resonates. But: DeLorey says if it’s a bad showing for Bernier — like really bad — this may even be his “last stand” before the CPC can “vanquish” the PPC. “But the Conservatives need to crush Bernier” to do that. On the other hand, if he hits the 20 percent mark, the “staying power” of his party would be “very concerning” for Poilievre. The key questions: Can the PPC manage its 2021 vote share, or will that collapse without a fresh hot-button issue like Covid mandates leaving Poilievre’s party to vacuum up the PPC vote? Is it yet another way-overhyped byelection, or is this one different — with big opportunities and risks for both parties? — Maybe not: University of Manitoba political studies professor ROYCE KOOP tells Playbook Poilievre “should not be too worried” about Bernier (who he characterized on Twitter as a Derek Sloan 2.0 – a right-wing Easterner who ran out West, only to see his electoral fortunes fizzle). Bernier is at an “enormous disadvantage” coming from Quebec with no personal connections to a rural riding in southern Manitoba, which will be “massively difficult to overcome.” There’s little cost to Bernier for running and he can easily net media coverage by turning it into a national race, but Koop suspects he will “get fewer votes than the (PPC) candidate who ran last time.” “The PPC can be around as long as (Bernier) wants it to be around, but it's probably on a downward trend now that Covid is over.” — After these messages: Bernier will return to headlines and invade our already overtaxed attention spans as early as next week, with his Winnipeg courtroom date set for May 16 over charges stemming from a 2021 rally for breaching Manitoba’s pandemic restrictions, per the Winnipeg Freep. Did someone forward Ottawa Playbook your way? Click here to sign up for your own edition. It’s free! | | TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS | | | | 
G-7 finance ministers and central bank governors attend a family photo session in Niigata, Japan, on May 12, 2023. | AP | Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND is at the G-7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting in Japan. 9 a.m. The parliamentary budget officer will post a legislative costing note entitled “Cost estimate of Employment Insurance Board of Appeal.” 10:30 a.m. Governor General MARY SIMON holds an investiture ceremony at Rideau Hall. 1 p.m. Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT will participate in a fireside chat and media availability at the Montréal Council on Foreign Relations at the Fairmont The Queen Elizabeth. Hottest vote on the Hill: The Canadian Animal Health Institute’s cutest pet contest. GOTV flex for your doggos and other furry friends, with voting starting May 15 and running to June 4. Winners announced June 7. | | | For your radar | | |
VIP TREATMENT — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU disclosed a gift to the ethics commissioner available to a short list of Canadians: a U.S. Secret Service motorcade.
Trudeau and his family received the protection during a five-day sojourn to Big Sky, Montana, in April. Playbook asked Trudeau's office where he stayed and why he scored a ride fit for a president. Turns out visiting heads of government are entitled to Secret Service resources. "The Prime Minister and his family stayed with friends at a lodge. As per standard practice, we consulted the Office of the Conflict of Interest and Ethics Commissioner to ensure that the rules were followed," read a PMO statement. | | | | A message from Google:   | | |
REGISTRY COMING … AT SOME POINT — The federal government will create a registry of foreign agents to stop China and other countries from messing with Canada's domestic politics. Per CBC, the Liberals will table a bill to establish one, possibly as soon as this summer. Nice to pull an announcement like that out of the back pocket. It follows a Conservative motion passing the House calling for the registry.
COMMITTEE SCRAP — Sparks flew under the spotlight at PROC, where Conservative strategist JENNI BYRNE accused the Liberals of taking a cavalier attitude — and even “turning a blind eye” — on foreign interference, warning all MPs could be targeted. She also said she was “never briefed on foreign interference” in her time working for STEPHEN HARPER’s PMO, prompting MPs from other parties to say that seems “suspicious.” | | | WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN | |
Who’s up: The anonymous “loyal customer” of The Main for making it into Hansard by being cited as an official source in Question Period.
Who’s down: The comms team behind the passport redesign launch, for slighting veterans, residents of Port Coquitlam, and providing a day’s worth of own-goal joke fodder to partisans and fans of historical watermarks. | | | MEDIA ROOM | | |
— AARON WHERRY writes: The political brawl over 'woke' is about everything and nothing.
— From our colleagues from Sivas, Turkey: Cracks emerge in one of Erdoğan’s electoral bastions. — CP's BOB WEBER reports: Imperial faces more water problems at Kearl mine. — ALTHIA RAJ is on The Bridge to talk about the MAXIME BERNIER and what his potential run for a seat in Manitoba would mean for the Conservatives. — Over at The Line, ANDREW TUMILTY argues DOUG FORD poses a threat, of sorts, to PIERRE POILIEVRE. — In Policy, L. IAN MACDONALD explains why ANDRÉ PRATT could emerge the prohibitive front-runner to lead Quebec’s Liberal Party — whether he likes it or not. — “I expected to be more annoyed by the Trudeau government’s new passport design,” HOWARD ANGLIN writes on The Hub. “I was almost relieved when it turned out to be just offensively inoffensive, rather than actively offensive.” — JAKE EDMISTON profiles ‘ballsy bureaucrat’ MATTHEW BOSWELL, Canada’s competition commissioner. — JAY BARUCHEL talks to Maclean’s about the BlackBerry: “It’s a definitively Canadian story, something we can claim. It’s also a road map to how we got to this — let’s be honest — loathsome modern world we live in.” The Decibel pod features more on the BlackBerry. | | PROZONE | |
For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter: MPs call for a national industrial strategy.
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A view of NRG Energy's W.A. Parish Electric Generating Station in Thompsons, Texas. | David J. Phillip/AP Photo | In other news for Pro subscribers:
— The nerd's guide to carbon capture and the EPA power plant rule.
— Macron announces 'Buy European' car measures by year-end.
— U.S. regulators charge HSBC, Scotiabank units over record-keeping.
— Jon Stewart wants to remake the stock market. No joke.
— Senate votes to overturn two of Biden's endangered species rules. | | PLAYBOOKERS | |
Birthdays: HBD and happy retirement to Senator GEORGE FUREY. Also celebrating today: ANDRÉ PRATTE, MICHAEL IGNATIEFF and SERGIO MARCHI.
Celebrating Saturday: GURRATAN SINGH of Crestview Strategy, MEGAN BUTTLE of Earnscliffe, MPP PAUL CALANDRA and former MP GUY CARON. Sunday birthdays: Sen. DON PLETT, PATRICK KENNEDY of Earnscliffe, former Ontario MP GILLES BISSON and Conservative MP ROB MOORE. Send birthdays to ottawaplaybook@politico.com. Spotted: House Speaker ANTHONY ROTA meeting with Moldova President MAIA SANDU. Liberal MP ANJU DHILLON bringing Fritos to the House international trade committee. Journalists MARIE-DANIELLE SMITH and CATHERINE LÉVESQUE at Q Bar, workshopping jokes for the Parliamentary Press Gallery dinner with their media colleagues MICHEL SABA, RAPHAËL PIRRO, BORIS PROULX, DYLAN ROBERTSON, EMILIE BERGERON, GUILLAUME ST-PIERRE, NOJOUD AL MALLEES and CHRIS NARDI. Also a reminder: secure your dinner dates! They book up quickly. Movers and shakers: Former Alberta premier JASON KENNEY has been elected to the board of electricity/energy provider ATCO. It’s GOZDE KAZAZOGLU’s last day at the Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters before she joins Coca-Cola Company Canada on May 15 in Toronto. Former NDP MLA HARRY LALI is joining B.C. United in the name of fighting for rural interests. And an Order-In-Council was finally posted for potential leadership hopeful YASIR NAQVI, stepping down as Parlsec, about two months from it being announced. | | On the Hill | | | | 
Parliament Hill | POLITICO Canada | | → Find upcoming House committees here → Keep track of Senate committees here 8:45 a.m. It’s watchdog day at the House ethics committee. Privacy Commissioner PHILIPPE DUFRESNE, Information and Privacy Commissioner CAROLINE MAYNARD, Lobbying Commissioner NANCY BÉLANGER and two Conflict of Interest and Ethics Commissioner officials will be at committee to talk about main estimates. 8:45 a.m. The House official languages committee meets to study increased Francophone immigration. 8:45 a.m. The national defense committee continues its study of the military health system and the Canadian Forces Health Services Group. 9 a.m. Parliamentary Budget Officer YVES GIROUX releases a new legislative costing note titled, “Cost estimate of Employment Insurance Board of Appeal.” — Behind closed doors: The House natural resources committee reviews a draft report; the House human resources committee chats “committee business” and will go over a copy of its national housing study report; the House foreign affairs subcommittee on international human rights will discuss the rights and freedoms of women globally and women in Afghanistan, Iran and Saudi Arabia. | | | TRIVIA | | |
Thursday’s answer: Former Cabmin MITCHELL SHARP once served as Prime Minister Jean Chrétien’s $1-a-year adviser.
Props to WAYNE EASTER, SHANNON DAY, KIRK COX, BILL PRISTANSKI, HEATHER CHIASSON, BARBARA KAGEDAN, JOHN DILLON, MELANIE NICHOLSON, BOB GORDON, GEORGE SCHOENHOFER, ANDREW SZENDE, GREG MACEACHERN, PATRICK DION, MARTIN CHAMPOUX, RYAN HAMILTON, RALPH LEVENSTEIN, DOUG RICE, ALYSON FAIR, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, BOB RICHARDSON, BOB PLAMONDON, DAN MCCARTHY, DOUG SWEET, ANDRÉ BRISEBOIS and BRIAN GILBERTSON. Today’s question: What former senator was known as the Tiger? Have a stumper of a trivia question in your back pocket? Send us your best. Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Canadian influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com. Playbook wouldn’t happen: Without Luiza Ch. Savage and Sue Allan. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
