| | | | |  | | By Garrett Ross | | | BREAKING — “Oath Keepers founder Stewart Rhodes gets 18 years for Jan. 6 seditious conspiracy,” by Kyle Cheney HOW IT’S PLAYING — “Iowa voters don’t think DeSantis’ Twitter failure is real life,” by Adam Wren in Sioux City, Iowa: “RON DeSANTIS’ campaign announcement was exploding on the launch pad, but in a sweaty warehouse of an old machine supply company in western Iowa late Wednesday night, it was hard to find anyone among some 300 voters gathered for a TIM SCOTT town hall who knew it happened. Let alone cared or thought it would alter the race.”
|  Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) and other conservative lawmakers are cautioning against a debt limit deal that doesn't live up to the expectations of the House GOP's legislation to address the situation. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images | X MARKS THE FRAUGHT — DONALD SCHNEIDER, head of U.S. policy at Piper Sandler, tweets: “New X-Date estimate. I think Treasury, after deploying all extraordinary measures, could have as little as $10bn on hand June 2 and $2 billion on June 9.” As we head toward a Memorial Day weekend that will be dominated by the looming debt limit negotiations, there’s a handful of emerging trends worth paying attention to today. The timeline is coming into focus: Rep. MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas) told CNN this morning that negotiators are “getting close” and that “a deal could be cut as early as tomorrow,” which could put the vote on track for Wednesday — just a day before the calendar flips to June. And Rep. KEVIN HERN (R-Okla.) said a deal is “likely” for tomorrow afternoon, per Reuters. Ramping up the rhetoric: Some conservatives are beginning to publicly lash out against a potential deal, as they see the writing on the wall for what concessions and compromises could make their way into the final product. The House Freedom Caucus sent a letter to Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY this morning, calling for him to “preserve GOP unity” by 1) adding policies to the deal like border security, 2) demanding that Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN “shows her math on June 1 X-date and 3) “rapidly pass COVID+IRS rescissions to push debt ceiling thru June.” Read the full letter Here’s Rep. BOB GOOD (R-Va.) in HuffPost this morning: “I am concerned about rumors to the effect — and I haven’t read or seen anything yet — but rumors that we may have some sort of a deal in place that would raise the debt limit for more than what was called for in [the House debt-ceiling bill passed in April] for a whole lot less in return. … If that were true, that would absolutely collapse the Republican majority for this debt ceiling increase.” Here’s Rep. CHIP ROY (R-Texas) in a radio interview this morning: “I am going to have to go have some blunt conversations with my colleagues and the leadership team. I don’t like the direction they are headed.” He added that the brewing accord, which is not expected to roll back President JOE BIDEN’s Inflation Reduction Act or student-debt reprieve, “doesn’t sound like a deal that I can support.” Here’s Sen. MIKE LEE (R-Utah) on Twitter this morning: “I will use every procedural tool at my disposal to impede a debt-ceiling deal that doesn’t contain substantial spending and budgetary reforms. I fear things are moving in that direction. If they do, that proposal will not face smooth sailing in the Senate.” And here’s RUSS VOUGHT, who has been advising House Republicans on their debt limit position, on Twitter this morning: “Kevin McCarthy is on the verge of striking a terrible deal to give away the debt limit thru Biden’s term for little in the way of cuts. Nothing to crush the bureaucracy. They are lining up Democrats to pass it. The DC cartel is reassembling. Time for higher defcon.” The blame game: According to a new Fox News poll, voters are primarily placing the onus for the debt limit negotiations at Biden’s feet. Responding to a hypothetical question if the U.S. defaults on its debt, 47% of respondents said Biden would be more to blame, while 44% said it would be congressional Republicans’ fault. See the full poll That three-percentage-point gap between Biden and the GOP is significant when you consider how similar polling shook out for then-President BARACK OBAMA in 2011 and 2013. WaPo’s Aaron Blake pulls out the numbers: “The blame question was somewhat close early in the 2011 fight, but polling soon showed voters preparing to blame Republicans more by 15 points, 18 points and even 21 points. Things were a bit closer in 2013, when a debt ceiling fight was paired with a government shutdown. But polling at the tail end showed a clear edge for Democrats.” “Were the splits today similar to then, you might see a more hard-line approach from Biden and the Democrats because they would be more confident that Republicans might own whatever adverse outcome would result and would have to back down. But the current numbers apparently don’t instill such confidence, which Biden seemed to subtly nod to this weekend.” Good Thursday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at gross@politico.com.
| | | | A message from Altria: The future of Tobacco Harm Reduction. More than 70% of U.S. adults 21+ surveyed support Tobacco Harm Reduction as the right path forward for tobacco regulation. And two out of three believe the FDA should focus its efforts on Tobacco Harm Reduction. See the poll results here. | | | POWERFUL READ — SARAH DRORY, deputy comms director for Rep. RO KHANNA, pens a personal piece for Elle: “I Never Planned to Tell My Abortion Story — Especially on Capitol Hill”: “After weeks of feeling isolated and anxious, I knew I had to do something. I decided to speak up at work with the hope that sharing my story could help build a support system in a place where — given the demands of my job — I spend most of my time. I thought starting a conversation about abortion in my office could help me, and potentially others working in Congress, feel more understood and less alone.” FUN READ — “Talking Tuna and Eating Sandwiches With Virginia Senator Mark Warner,” by Washingtonian’s Anna Spiegel: “We taste-tested 7 local tuna melts with the Senator, who dished on sandwiches (and that viral video).” 2024 WATCH ENDORSEMENT WATCH — Count another Florida Republican in the column supporting DONALD TRUMP. This morning, Rep. DANIEL WEBSTER told our colleague Nancy Vu that he is endorsing Trump in the 2024 race over Gov. RON DeSANTIS after the former president reached out seeking his support. Nancy also reports that Trump is planning to back Webster in his eventual reelection bid. Webster brings Trump’s total count of the House’s Florida GOP delegation to 12 backers, compared with DeSantis’ lone Sunshine State endorsement (Rep. LAUREL LEE, a former DeSantis administration official). THE DeSANTIS DOCTRINE — “The Policy Fights Where DeSantis Sees His Chance to Hit Trump,” by NYT’s Jonathan Swan, Maggie Haberman and Nicholas Nehamas: “DeSantis, the Florida governor, is expected to make a series of policy-based arguments, according to his public statements and interviews with people who have met with him privately and described their conversations on the condition of anonymity. “He is telling Republicans that, unlike the mercurial Mr. Trump, he can be trusted to adhere to conservative principles; that Mr. Trump is too distractible and undisciplined to deliver conservative policy victories such as completing his much-hyped border wall; and that any policy promises Mr. Trump makes to conservatives are worthless because he is incapable of defeating President Biden.” REPORT CARD — “‘Ron DeSantis Has a Jekyll and Hyde Persona’: Our Columnists and Writers Weigh In on His Candidacy,” by NYT Opinion MARK YOUR CALENDARS — CNN is continuing its series of 2024 town halls, putting another one on the books for former VP MIKE PENCE in Iowa on June 7 hosted by Dana Bash. This will be the third such CNN special, having already hosted one with Trump and scheduled one for June 4 with NIKKI HALEY. However, Pence is the first such participant who has yet to declare a presidential run. More from CNN MORE POLITICS THE DIFI DILEMMA — A new survey of California voters has a tough answer to the question of whether Sen. DIANNE FEINSTEIN (D-Calif.) should resign her seat in Congress, with 52% of surveyed Democrats saying she should take her leave. The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, co-sponsored by The Los Angeles Times, also asked who voters would support in the Senate race — but that answer isn’t so clear. “Republican attorney ERIC EARLY has a slight lead with 18% of respondents — nearly all Republicans. Then it’s Rep. KATIE PORTER at 17%, Rep. ADAM SCHIFF at 14% and Rep. BARBARA LEE at 9%. More from Matt Berg … See the poll Meanwhile, WaPo’s Maeve Reston is up with a dispatch from L.A. looking at the current state of the Democratic primary to succeed Feinstein. But as the trio of Democratic lawmakers embark in the race, there are questions about how believable Schiff’s shift to the left is given his generally moderate track record. “Perhaps more than any other 2024 race, the competition to succeed Feinstein will test the potency of the anti-Trump fervor in the Democratic Party against a desire for leadership that reflects a diverse and liberal state,” Reston writes, noting that “California hasn’t elected a White man to the Senate since the late 1980s.” A SCHLAPP IN THE FACE — “CPAC Is Rocked by a Resignation,” by N.Y. Mag’s Ben Jacobs: “A top leader in the organization that puts on CPAC, the highly influential conference of conservative leaders, resigned on Tuesday night, citing financial mysteries surrounding the organization’s leader. BOB BEAUPREZ, the longtime treasurer of the American Conservative Union, said that he was not fully informed about money being paid for chairman MATT SCHLAPP’s legal defense against a lawsuit accusing him of sexual assault.”
| | | | DON’T MISS POLITICO’S HEALTH CARE SUMMIT: The Covid-19 pandemic helped spur innovation in health care, from the wide adoption of telemedicine, health apps and online pharmacies to mRNA vaccines. But what will the next health care innovations look like? Join POLITICO on Wednesday June 7 for our Health Care Summit to explore how tech and innovation are transforming care and the challenges ahead for access and delivery in the United States. REGISTER NOW. | | | | | THE ECONOMY TAKING THE TEMPERATURE — “U.S. economic growth for last quarter is revised up to a still-tepid 1.3% annual rate,” by AP’s Paul Wiseman: “The Commerce Department’s revised measure of growth in the nation’s gross domestic product — the economy’s total output of goods and services — marked a deceleration from 3.2% annual growth from July through September and 2.6% from October through December.” CONGRESS HOUSE TACKLES THE OPIOID CRISIS — “House Passes Bill to Make Penalties Permanent for Fentanyl-Related Drugs,” by NYT’s Karoun Demirjian: “The bill, approved by a vote of 289 to 133, would permanently list fentanyl-related drugs as Schedule I controlled substances, a designation that mandates severe prison sentences for highly addictive, nonmedicinal chemicals, and which is now set to expire at the end of 2024.” JUDICIARY SQUARE FOR YOUR RADAR — “Judges rebuke Social Security for errors as disability denials stack up,” by WaPo’s Lisa Rein: “In the last two fiscal years, federal judges considering appeals for denied benefits found fault with almost 6 in every 10 cases and sent them back to administrative law judges at Social Security for new hearings — the highest rate of rejections in years, agency statistics show. Court remands are on pace to reach similar levels this year.” SCOTUS WATCH — “Supreme Court dramatically shrinks Clean Water Act’s reach,” by Annie Snider FOR THOSE KEEPING TRACK — “Steve Bannon’s trial in ‘We Build the Wall’ scheme set for May 2024,” by AP’s Michael Sisak
| | | | GET READY FOR GLOBAL TECH DAY: Join POLITICO Live as we launch our first Global Tech Day alongside London Tech Week on Thursday, June 15. Register now for continuing updates and to be a part of this momentous and program-packed day! From the blockchain, to AI, and autonomous vehicles, technology is changing how power is exercised around the world, so who will write the rules? REGISTER HERE. | | | | | BEYOND THE BELTWAY A DIFFERENT KIND OF WORK REQUIREMENT — AP’s Harm Venhuizen is up with a look at the various state legislatures across the country that are “embracing legislation to let children work in more hazardous occupations, longer hours on school nights and in expanded roles including serving alcohol in bars and restaurants as young as 14.” The count: “Lawmakers proposed loosening child labor laws in at least 10 states over the past two years, according to a report published last month by the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute. Some bills became law, while others were withdrawn or vetoed.” MEGATREND, PART I — “Same-Sex Couples Accounted for 1% of Households in 2020, Census Shows,” by WSJ’s Paul Overberg and Anthony DeBarros: “Same-sex married couples made up 0.5% of the nation’s nearly 127 million households in 2020, five years after the Supreme Court legalized such unions nationwide. Same-sex unmarried partners made up 0.4%.” MEGATRENT, PART II — “Aging America: Baby boomers push nation’s median age to almost 39 as fewer children are born,” by AP’s Mike Schneider: “The share of residents 65 or older grew by more than a third from 2010 to 2020 and at the fastest rate of any decade in 130 years, while the share of children declined, according to new figures from the most recent census. The declining percentage of children under age 5 was particularly noteworthy in the figures from the 2020 head count released Thursday.” STILL PICKING UP THE PIECES — “Housing crisis remains in Kentucky’s poor Appalachia region after flood waters recede,” by AP’s Dylan Lovan AMERICA AND THE WORLD TRAINING DAY — Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN said today he “hopes that training for Ukrainian pilots on American-made F-16 fighter jets will begin in the coming weeks, bolstering Ukraine in the long run but not necessarily as part of an anticipated spring counteroffensive against Russia,” AP’s Lolita Baldor and Tara Copp write. VALLEY TALK MUSK READ — “Twitter’s Flaws Snag Elon Musk’s Media Ambitions,” by WSJ’s Sarah Needleman: “ELON MUSK’s ambitions to make Twitter a major media platform suffered a setback Wednesday when technical issues delayed the launch of Republican Ron DeSantis’s presidential campaign, raising questions about whether the company has enough employees to keep it humming smoothly.” PLAYBOOKERS OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED last night at a farewell party for outgoing Rep. David Cicilline (D-R.I.) at The Wells in Eastern Market: FTC Chair Lina Khan, Deputy Assistant AG Slade Bond, Peter Karafotas, Rich Luchette, Francis Grubar, Sarah Trister, Zan Guendert, Lisa Sarkisian, Matt McGinn, Dan Sorenson, Megan Garcia, Leo Confalone, Matt Handverger, Amanda Lewis, Jonay Holkins, Jennifer Bell, Christina Rankin, Carrick Heilferty and Larson Binzer — SPOTTED last night at a reception for Building Safety Month at the International Code Council’s new D.C. office: Naveed Jazayeri, Lauren Gros, Alexa Williams, Logan Feree, Michael Bauman, Brett Mattson, Matthew Young, Emily Feenstra, Martin Hight, Michael Armstrong, Christopher Perry, Dominic Sims, Michael Wich, Gabe Maser, Ryan Colker, Aaron Davis, Karl Fippinger, and Lisa Berger. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine. Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook PM misstated the name of Stefan Mychajliw’s former company. It is Big Dog Strategies.
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