SCOTUS opens the door to another Dem flip

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Jun 26, 2023 View in browser
 
Playbook PM

By Eli Okun

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The US Supreme Court is seen in Washington, DC, on June 26, 2023. A year after the US Supreme Court scrapped the constitutional right to abortion in the United States, President Joe Biden on June 24, 2023 vowed to fight against the "extreme and dangerous" effort by Republicans to curb access to the procedure nationwide. (Photo by Jim WATSON / AFP) (Photo by JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images)

The Supreme Court’s Louisiana order today follows its ruling in an Alabama case earlier this month. | Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

PELICAN MULLIGAN — The latest bit of fallout from the Supreme Court’s surprise defense of the Voting Rights Act clicked into place today, as the court lifted its hold on a lower-court ruling ordering a new congressional map in Louisiana.

The upshot is that Louisiana may be forced to draw a second majority-Black district to align better with the breakdown of its population. The state’s current congressional delegation is 5-1 Republican, but one-third of the state’s population is Black. A redraw could significantly change the contours of the districts of GOP Reps. GARRET GRAVES, MIKE JOHNSON and/or JULIA LETLOW, potentially opening the door for Democrats to flip one of them.

The Supreme Court’s order today follows its ruling in an Alabama case earlier this month, when the justices upheld the Voting Rights Act’s redistricting provisions and paved the way for another majority-Black district to be added in that state. Like Alabama, Louisiana had gotten the green light from the Supreme Court on an emergency basis to use maps in 2022 that have now been deemed likely unlawful.

Now, the action moves back to an appeals court, where Louisiana is trying to avoid a redraw by defending itself against accusations of racial gerrymandering. Democrats and opponents of the current district boundaries feel optimistic that they’ll prevail in light of the Supreme Court’s recent moves, Nola.com’s Sam Karlin reports.

But, but, but: It’s not a done deal. As Zach Montellaro notes, the matter will end up before the 5th Circuit of Appeals, “a famously conservative appeals court that legal experts are already speculating would likely look skeptically on allegations of racial vote dilution, despite the high court’s recent decision.”

MORE FROM SCOTUS — “Supreme Court won’t hear charter school dress code case that promised broader fallout,” by Juan Perez Jr.: “The Supreme Court on Monday declined to take up a case that could have upended the charter school industry, but a legal fight over the future of the embattled segment of public schools is not over. … Religious liberty groups, some school choice organizations, plus 10 attorneys general in Republican-led states had asked the justices to intervene after the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals struck down a charter dress code that required girls to wear skirts.”

— The Supreme Court today also declined to take up an appeal from Genius accusing Google of stealing its song lyrics in search results. That leaves the tech giant with a win in the case. More from Reuters

STILL WATTERS — Fox News rolled out its new primetime lineup after the seismic firing of TUCKER CARLSON, and it’ll be JESSE WATTERS replacing the far-right firebrand as the 8 p.m. anchor. LAURA INGRAHAM will move to 7 p.m. and GREG GUTFELD to 10 p.m., while SEAN HANNITY will keep holding down the 9 p.m. hour. More from the WSJ

THE I WORD — It’s not just DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS or (less likely) President JOE BIDEN: Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY sounded ready this morning for a potential impeachment drive for AG MERRICK GARLAND over the IRS/HUNTER BIDEN story. “If it comes true what the IRS whistleblower is saying, we’re going to start impeachment inquiries on the attorney general,” McCarthy said on “Fox & Friends.”

THE M WORD — With DONALD TRUMP and Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS long leading the field, everybody’s been waiting to see if any other candidate can start to build momentum. Inside Elections’ Jacob Rubashkin reports that in Iowa, at least, there are finally signs of it building for Sen. TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.). He’s pumped a lot of money into ads, rising to No. 1 in the state for broadcast TV spots, and is the only candidate rising in some recent Iowa polls. “The question is whether he can maintain the momentum he is starting to build, by cracking double digits in Iowa and drawing a second look from voters looking for an alternative to both Trump and DeSantis.”

Good Monday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.

 

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TRUMP CARDS

THE JAN. 6 INVESTIGATION — “Five or six Secret Service agents have testified before Jan. 6 grand jury, sources say,” by NBC’s Julia Ainsley

2024 WATCH

AD WARS — WSJ’s John McCormick examines the landscape of 2024 GOP presidential ads so far, which as you’d expect is dominated by Trump and DeSantis. A majority of ads from Trump’s MAGA Inc. super PAC have been negative, with a particular focus on DeSantis and Medicare/Social Security, while almost all the ads from DeSantis’ Never Back Down super PAC have been positive. Nos. 3 and 4 in ad spending are North Dakota Gov. DOUG BURGUM and Scott. Meanwhile, former South Carolina Gov. NIKKI HALEY has spent very little on ads, which the Journal calls “a potential indication that her bid is struggling to raise money.”

HERE COME THE POLICY PLANS — “Ron DeSantis vows to send the military to block drugs from reaching Mexican ports,” by NBC’s Gabe Gutierrez and Bianca Seward in Eagle Pass, Texas: It’s “a slew of immigration-related proposals his team labeled ‘No Excuses’— a reference to what it sees as a failure by former President Donald Trump to deliver on his promises.” Among the ideas, in addition to using the military to stop fentanyl:

  • “Closing” the Darién Gap with Panama’s help
  • Bringing back the “remain in Mexico” policy
  • Ending “catch and release”
  • Boosting salaries for Border Patrol agents
  • Ending birthright citizenship (which would be unconstitutional)

REPORT FROM THE FRINGE — The Atlantic’s John Hendrickson is out with a profile of ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR., a true believer who thinks he can bring the country together, fight for the powerless and, yes, win the Democratic presidential nomination. The deeply conspiratorial edge of many of Kennedy’s beliefs is not just incidental to his support: “He is tapping into something burrowed deep in the national psyche. Large numbers of Americans don’t merely scoff at experts and institutions; they loathe them. Falling down conspiratorial internet rabbit holes has become an entirely normal pastime. … Scores of people are bored and depressed and searching for narratives to help explain their anxiety and isolation.”

Amazingly, Kennedy also tells Hendrickson a false conspiracy theory about the origin of the term “conspiracy theory.”

 

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JUDICIARY SQUARE

THE ETHICS QUESTION — Digging into newly released documents from the late Justice JOHN PAUL STEVENS, WaPo’s Tobi Raji, Theo Meyer and Leigh Ann Caldwell take a look at a couple past instances in which the Supreme Court discussed its own ethical standards. In one, Stevens was privately critical of Chief Justice WILLIAM REHNQUIST’s decision not to recuse himself from a Microsoft case when his son was working with the company. The files also show Rehnquist and Justice ANTONIN SCALIA employing similar rationales for their choices as Justice SAMUEL ALITO has used to defend himself of late.

GETTING PERSONAL — With the Supreme Court’s potentially transformative ruling on affirmative action in higher education coming any day now, WSJ’s Jess Bravin notes that Justices CLARENCE THOMAS and SONIA SOTOMAYOR both benefited from it — and came away with very different perspectives. The justices were among the first wave of Americans of color whom affirmative action helped enter into elite universities. Sotomayor now views race as a legitimate consideration for such decisions, while Thomas sees it as wrongfully discriminatory.

THE WHITE HOUSE

ON THE BOOKS — Biden has made a show of releasing public visitor logs to the White House as a means of transparency, and the documents show more than 300,000 visitors from his tenure so far, Bloomberg’s Eric Fan and Josh Wingrove report. There are notable names who sought to sway the president, like Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) and JPMorgan Chase CEO JAMIE DIMON. But Bloomberg raises some questions, too, about “duplications, anomalies and missing names” that undermine “the accuracy and completeness of the logs,” like recording only five of Rep. NANCY PELOSI’s (D-Calif.) 20 visits.

MORE POLITICS

ALL IN THE FAMILY — “Jesse Helms, Family Values, and His Gay Granddaughter,” by The Assembly’s John Drescher: “The late senator made harsh opposition to gay rights his signature issue just as his granddaughter was coming to terms with her own sexuality. For the first time, she talks publicly about her struggle with his legacy.”

 

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CONGRESS

JOHN FETTERMAN, AFTER TREATMENT — The Pennsylvania Democratic senator sits for an interview with WaPo’s Colby Itkowitz, in which he talks about his gratitude to be alive and healthier after going inpatient for depression treatment. Despite his ongoing auditory processing issues, Fetterman is finding his stride a bit more on the Hill. After keeping a lower profile, Fetterman brought out a bit of his iconoclastic streak with his vote against the debt ceiling bill: “I had the opportunity to vote my disdain for the idea that there seems to me a fetish on punishing people on SNAP versus bank presidents that almost wrecked their economy,” he recounts. Notable: Fetterman says Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas) “has been especially kind,” per the Post.

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

BATTLE FOR THE BUCKEYE BALLOT — In Ohio’s special election in August, Republicans are trying to make it harder to amend the state constitution in part to stave off an amendment codifying abortion rights, AP’s Julie Carr Smyth reports from Columbus. But the unusual election — coming right after Republicans undid a new law meant to bar August elections — is “upending local election offices” throughout the state, posing a logistical nightmare and scrambling expectations for turnout.

AFTERNOON READ — “Can Anyone Fix California?” by Vanity Fair’s Joe Hagan: “Climate. Housing. Crime. Depending on who you ask, the Golden State is a bellwether for progress, or a liberal hellscape. A journey through a land in crisis.” Featuring Pelosi, Rep. RO KHANNA, RICK CARUSO, BARI WEISS, JEFFREY KATZENBERG and more

THE ABORTION DEBATE’S LEADING EDGE — The more than 150,000 residents of Guam have no providers offering surgical abortion, though it’s legal in the U.S. territory. That leaves the island dependent on abortion pills — and particularly subject to a pending court case that could impose new restrictions on their prescription, NYT’s David Chen reports from Hagatna. “Forces on both sides of the abortion debate say that the island of 154,000 people is on track to become the purest example of what life would be like under a near-total ban.”

POLICY CORNER

THE WHEELS ON THE BUS — “The U.S. government is awarding $1.7 billion to buy electric and low-emission buses,” by AP’s Josh Boak

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

IN MEMORIAM — “Former CNN executive David Bohrman, pioneer of the ‘Magic Wall,’ dead at 69,” by CNN’s Juliana Liu: “He joined CNN in 1998 and later became the network’s Washington bureau chief and senior vice president. … Bohrman was the creator of countless news programs, having also spent chapters of his career at ABC News, CBS News, NBC News and serving as president of Current TV. … In 2004, it was his idea to anchor CNN’s election coverage from the floor of party conventions. Four years later, he implemented the Magic Wall, a touchscreen display featuring up-to-date voting data on election nights.”

OUT AND ABOUT — Adam Green hosted a rooftop “Art Debut” last night, featuring the unveiling of a new Comedia rooftop mural by Vasilios Tryphonas II and works by Absurdly Well, Jo Di Bona, Shepard Fairey, Kalindi Winfield and the late Françoise Gilot. SPOTTED: Hugo Verges, James Roscoe, Jack Agnew, Juleanna Glover, Philippa Hughes, Julie Bloom, Katie Benner, Nihal Krishan, Jamal Simmons, Scott Fairchild, Gideon Bragin, Sarah Istel, Andy Green, Aaron Stephens, Ilyse Hogue, Danielle Deiseroth, Nancy Zdunkewicz, Adam Ruben, Kevin Lata, Vriti Jain, Evan Brown, Amirah Sequeira, Ladan Manteghi and McKenzie Wilson.

MEDIA MOVE — Lindsey McPherson is now a Congress reporter at The Messenger. She previously was a senior reporter at Roll Call.

TRANSITIONS — Mariam Siddiqui is the new deputy press secretary at the Office of Personnel Management. She previously was a media strategist for congressional campaigns and a research associate for the DNC. … Stephen Ferrara is now president of the American Association of Nurse Practitioners. He is an actively practicing NP and associate dean of clinical affairs and associate professor at Columbia University’s School of Nursing. …

… Samantha Helton is now a senior director on PhRMA’s federal advocacy team. She most recently was director of government affairs at 3M, and is a Walgreens and Roger Wicker alum. … Chloe Cantor is now a Washington representative on the Tennessee Valley Authority’s federal affairs team. She most recently was senior legislative assistant for Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.). … Jessica Hart Steinmann is now director of litigation at the America First Policy Institute in addition to her current role as general counsel. She previously was a director at DOJ during the Trump administration and is a Ted Cruz alum.

BONUS BIRTHDAY: CAA’s Mark McGrath

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Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.

Correction: Friday’s Playbook PM misreported the date of the K&L Gates public policy and law practice’s 50th anniversary celebration. It was Tuesday.

 

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