A CRUEL SUMMER — Congress may be on a break, but the to-do list isn’t letting up. The upcoming summer spending battles, in the wake of the debt limit deal may get top billing, but there’s lots of major legislative items on the to-do list. They’ll be fighting against each other for oxygen on Capitol Hill and floor time. Each bill will cut it close to get enough votes. NDAA: The House is expected to take up the annual Pentagon policy bill, plus a big slate of amendments, on the floor in July. House Armed Services Chair Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), told Sarah and Olivia last week that despite major divides over the military within his party and across the aisle, he’s not worried about right-wing rebels diverting floor time from the massive $886 billion National Defense Authorization Act. “I really think most of this stuff is going to be out of their system” by the time his defense bill gets a vote next month, Rogers said. But there will be fireworks on the floor after the 4th of July. Amendments to the bill are expected on abortion, gender policies, racial inclusion and electric vehicles and will put members on the record on some of the most divisive issues of the moment. The National Defense Authorization Act has been enacted 63 years in a row, and we don’t anticipate this year will break the streak. GOP Tax Bill: In the House, the Republican majority also wants to forge ahead soon on legislation with a deadline that isn’t until next year and that has no chance in the Democratic Senate: a GOP tax package. The bill, which cleared Ways and Means earlier this month, would undo recent restrictions on several business tax breaks, temporarily expand the standard deduction and revive tax incentives for businesses that have lapsed under the 2017 GOP tax law. Lawmakers are aiming for floor action before the August recess, which, in addition to spending bills, will make for a jam-packed July. But this is just a dry run. As Sarah and Burgess reported earlier this month, Republicans have a much more sweeping plan to replace the Trump-era tax breaks that are set to expire in 2025 if they can win the Senate and the White House next year. Farm Bill: Government funding isn’t the only thing set to run out at the end of September. That’s also when the 2018 Farm Bill is also set to expire, along with the farm commodity support programs and nutrition assistance programs packed into the five-year mega-bill for agriculture and food. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), chair of the Senate Agriculture Committee, said last week that it wouldn’t surprise her if lawmakers opted to pass a short-term extension of the 2018 farm bill to buy them some more time to come to agreement on a fresh 2023 version. Some farm bill discussions were put on hold (like spending talks and NDAA) during the debt limit battle this spring. But any delay wouldn’t exactly be history-making – Congress has done it before. Other farm-state lawmakers, including Republicans, acknowledge that giving lawmakers some breathing room on the deadline could be helpful. But there are serious concerns from some lawmakers who want a fresh farm bill moved on time that passing an extension would push action too close to the 2024 election, when compromise gets less and less likely. House Republicans are already discussing just how to pass a mega-bill packed with farm-state priorities and massive social programs through a narrowly divided House controlled a fractious majority. House leaders are expecting to lose some votes from the furthest right flank of their own caucus, which means Democrats would be needed to push the bill across the finish line. House GOP hardliners are exploring further cuts to nutrition assistance programs and even changes to some safety net programs for farmers, which have long been a third rail. The House Agriculture Committee is aiming for an early September markup of the bill, which would leave just weeks to reconcile it with a Senate version and clear both chambers. That tight timeline makes an extension of 2018’s Farm Bill more likely. But back to those spending fights…If you’re a spending-bills-or-bust kind of person, our appropriations queens Caitlin and Jennifer have a treat for you on this recess Monday: ‘Real deadline is Jan. 1’: Congress’ typical shutdown punt gets a new twist
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