| | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg | |  Yevgeny Prigozhin planned to capture Russia’s military leadership as part of his surprise mutiny over the weekend, but things didn’t go according to plan. | AP Photo | With help from Ari Hawkins Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt News in the aftermath of the Wagner Group’s rebellion keeps getting weirder and more dramatic. Since it’s all coming in through a firehose, we thought we’d parse through what we’ve learned over the last day or so. Let’s start with the biggie: YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN planned to capture Russia’s military leadership as part of his surprise mutiny over the weekend, but things didn’t go according to plan, the Wall Street Journal’s BOJAN PANCEVSKI reports. But Moscow’s FSB security service learned of the plot to capture Defense Minister SERGEI SHOIGU and Gen. VALERY GERASIMOV, the chief of Russia’s general staff, in a southern Russian region near Ukraine two days before Prigozhin was set to give the “go” order. That led the mercenary chief to accelerate his timeline, potentially a key reason for why he eventually had to abort the mission. Western intelligence was also attuned to the plan via intercepted communications and satellite imagery — and believed the mutiny had a good chance of succeeding before the plan was leaked. If you’re Prigozhin, none of that is great. Neither is the claim that Belarusian President ALEXANDER LUKASHENKO made today that he had to convince VLADIMIR PUTIN not to kill the former caterer. "I also understood: a brutal decision had been made … to wipe out" those who rebelled, he told his army officials and journalists today, according to Belarusian state media. Lukashenko, leader of what is essentially becoming a Russian vassal state, is prone to exaggeration. Still, Prigozhin is believed to be in Belarus and has had his criminal charges in Russia dropped. And there’s another wrinkle to all this: U.S. officials say a top Russian general was aware of Prigozhin’s plans. The question intelligence analysts are trying to discern is if Gen. SERGEI SUROVIKIN, the former top Russian commander in Ukraine, helped Prigozhin plan the mutiny, the New York Times’ JULIAN BARNES, HELENE COOPER and ERIC SCHMITT reported Tuesday. In response to this reporting, Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV said only that “there will be a lot of various speculations, gossip and so on around these events — I think this is one of such examples … The army, the people, everyone was next to the president.” That, we note, is not a denial of the reporting or even a defense of Surovikin. U.S. officials briefed on the matter told the NYT that other Russian generals may have supported the mutiny to change Russia’s defense leadership. If true, it could’ve given Prigozhin the confidence to go through with the mutiny. So what does President JOE BIDEN think about all this? Well, he told reporters today it was “hard to tell” if Putin was weakened by the whole situation. (However, he seemed to confuse the war in Ukraine with the war in Iraq.) Putin, perhaps to show strength, is now moving to seize control of Wagner’s global operations. “Russia’s deputy foreign minister flew to Damascus to personally deliver a message to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad: Wagner Group forces would no longer operate there independently. Senior Russian foreign ministry officials phoned the president of the Central African Republic, whose personal bodyguards include Wagner mercenaries, offering assurances that Saturday’s crisis wouldn’t derail Russia’s expansion into Africa,” the WSJ’s BENOIT FAUCON, JOE PARKINSON and DREW HINSHAW report today. Read: Gaming out Russia’s future by our own LILI BAYER.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — NATO CODEL SCHEDULE: We’ve got some new details on the U.S. congressional delegation, led by Sens. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.) and THOM TILLIS (R-N.C.), heading to the NATO summit next month. We’re hearing from people in the know, but who weren’t authorized to speak publicly, that the CODEL will sit for many bilateral meetings with NATO allies and partner nations, including with the leaders and other officials from the United Kingdom, Sweden, Poland, Australia and Germany. Shaheen also plans to meet with Belarusian pro-democracy leader SVIATLANA TSIKHANOUSKAYA. Of course, there are still two weeks until the gathering in Vilnius, so schedules might change. The delegation also expects a meeting with Biden, similar to the one during last year’s NATO summit in Madrid. Shaheen, who alongside Tillis co-chairs the NATO Observer Group, told NatSec Daily “there is a tendency, as of late, to give a platform to outlier voices downplaying U.S. support for NATO, which risks creating a false perception of reality and U.S. policy priorities. Our bipartisan delegation sends a strong and unequivocal message of the United States’ enduring, firm commitment to the alliance.” Joining Shaheen and Tillis will be Sens. DICK DURBIN (D-Ill.), PETE RICKETTS (R-Neb.), ANGUS KING (I-Me.) and DAN SULLIVAN (R-Alaska). MORE MONEY FOR UKRAINE?: The turmoil in Russia is giving Ukraine’s allies on Capitol Hill new ammunition in the fight to secure more weapons and aid for Kyiv, our own JOE GOULD, CONNOR O’BRIEN, LEE HUDSON and PAUL McLEARY report. “I would hope what [the Wagner rebellion] does is reinforce to members of Congress, particularly some of my Republican colleagues, who were talking about not continuing funding Ukraine, that this is why it is important to make sure that we are funding Ukraine to push forward,” House Foreign Affairs Committee ranking member Rep. GREGORY MEEKS (D-N.Y.) said on MSNBC on Monday. Increasing Ukraine aid is far from a given. Bipartisan support for further arming Kyiv runs deep in Congress, but there’s a vocal swath of conservatives, and some progressives, who oppose more U.S. aid. Many top leaders also concede that new funding will hinge on whether Ukraine’s counteroffensive makes progress in pushing back Russian forces. House Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY, just after securing the debt limit and spending caps deal this month, said he had no plans to take up any supplemental spending beyond the regular fiscal 2024 budget under consideration. That puts him at odds with Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL (R-Ky.), who on Tuesday re-upped his call to rush more weapons to the frontline in the wake of the rebellion. ‘ROBUST PACKAGE’: NATO allies will unveil “a very robust package for Ukraine, political and practical” during the July summit in Lithuania, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN told a Council on Foreign Relations audience today. The top diplomat didn’t go into specifics, but it’s the latest sign that Kyiv may receive more security assistance, its pathway to NATO membership smoothed out and possible security guarantees at the gathering. Blinken said one of the biggest considerations is “what can we do … to help Ukraine build up its long-term deterrence and defense capacity.” AS LONG AS IT TAKES: A new poll shows 65 percent of Americans support arming Ukraine against Russia, up dramatically from 46 percent in May. The two-day poll by Reuters/Ipsos — conducted after the Wagner Group’s rebellion — shows 81 percent of Democrats, 56 percent of Republicans and 57 percent of independents back the current policy of delivering arms to Kyiv. Furthermore, 76 percent of those polled agreed that the current policy demonstrated America has "the will and capability to protect our interests, our allies and ourselves." That’s as good a poll for the Biden administration and pro-Ukraine lawmakers as they could hope for. MORE GERMAN WEAPONS: Germany plans to deliver more of its weapons abroad, changing some restrictions that hampered the country’s arms sales. “I am convinced this means we should supply more arms deliveries. We have to talk about that in Germany and change the corresponding restrictions,” German Defense Minister BORIS PISTORIUS told the New York Times in an interview before a visit to the U.S. “This does not mean that we want to flood the world with German weapons. It still has to be done with a sense of proportion.” However, Berlin isn’t looking to start pumping out German material or provide new weapons to Ukraine beyond what’s already been sent. “It is now a question of: How can we establish sustainability?” he said. “That is what is crucial now.” Pistorius’ plans included meeting with Secretary of Defense LLOYD AUSTIN and national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN today. IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @_AriHawkins and @JGedeon1.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | IRAN DOC NOT IN TRUMP CASE?: The classified Iran document former President DONALD TRUMP allegedly discussed on an audio tape is not among the 31 counts of willful retention of national defense information in the indictment by special counsel JACK SMITH. CBS News, citing a source familiar, reports “Trump was not charged with unlawfully holding onto the Iran-related document discussed in the recording.” In an audio tape of a conversation first revealed in the indictment, Trump discussed a plan for a potential attack on Iran. He called the document “highly confidential, secret,” adding that he couldn’t declassify it now because he’s not the president anymore. Trump Tuesday said that he wasn’t waving an attack plan, saying instead that it was a moment of “bravado.” Per CBS’ ANDRES TRIAY, CATHERINE HERRIDGE and ROBERT LEGARE, “defense attorneys were not certain the Iran memo in question was ever recovered and returned to the government.”
| | AI IN THE MILITARY: Israel’s military expects “every area of warfare” will feature information gleaned from generative artificial intelligence, the Jerusalem Post’s YONAH JEREMY BOB reports. Maj. Gen. ERAN NIV told an audience in Tel Aviv today that he expects the incorporation of AI within “a few years.” Without it, Niv claims “no one will be able to prosecute a war in any area.” “In the modern battlefield, all of the tools, from drones to tanks to sea vessels, and others, can transfer information to all of the other platforms and all of them will be interconnected. This is the vision of establishing a digital front for the battlefield," he added.
| | | | LISTEN TO POLITICO'S ENERGY PODCAST: Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today. | | | | | | | | BIG REQUEST: Getting U.S.-made F-16s into the hands of Ukrainian pilots is about to take another step forward, as Denmark has submitted a formal request to the State Department to begin the training, our friends at Morning Defense report (for Pros!). “Denmark has submitted a third party transfer request, requesting permission to conduct F-16 training for Ukrainians, that has been received by the State Department,” Pentagon spokesperson Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder confirmed. The sign-off process for friendly countries can happen quickly — days or weeks if State and then the Senate Foreign Relations Committee agree a move is in America’s interest. Given the bipartisan support for expediting arms to Ukraine, this request — which is only to begin training, and not to actually start shipping jets to Kyiv — should be resolved quickly.
| | | KHANNA NAH NAH: When the House Armed Services Committee sent its annual defense policy bill to the floor last week, Rep. RO KHANNA (D-Calif.) was the only vote against the measure because “it’s this march to a trillion-dollar defense budget without any oversight,” he told our friends over at Morning Defense (for Pros!). While the bill easily made it out of committee, there’s a reason that progressive lawmakers shouldn’t be shrugged off. Yes, they’re a minority within the minority party, but given the GOP’s thin control of the House, progressives are a bloc that could be important if Republicans need to reach across the aisle for support. Progressives, he said, share his concern that the NDAA isn’t “taking on the excessive profits of defense contractors,” when it comes to price gouging at the Pentagon. “I expect 50 to 60 ‘no’ votes on the Democratic side, which is typically what you get,” Khanna said, referring to when the full House votes on the bill. He added that GOP language targeting Pentagon personnel policies could drive that group to 80.
| | ‘NOT THAT GREAT’: This isn’t natsec related, but we felt compelled to highlight this review of French and Italian cuisine by Brazilian President LUIZ INÁCIO LULA DA SILVA. It’s “not that great,” he said during a recent interview with a Brazilian reporter, as detailed in the Washington Post. “Everything is restricted. There isn’t a tray for you to choose and take what you want … Everything is very sophisticated, and, sometimes, we don’t even know what it is.” Lula, as the leader is known, says he struggles to eat abroad, despite gastronomy usually being a highlight for tourists in Italy and France, both of which Lula recently visited for meetings with counterparts. We here at NatSec Daily humbly offer our services to eat any food Lula doesn’t want from those nations. Some heroes don’t wear capes.
| | | |   | | | | | — CECILIA ROUSE was named the next president of the Brookings Institution. She was chair of the Council of Economic Advisers from 2021 to 2021, the first Black economist to hold the role. Rouse will assume her new post in January 2024. — SHAY KHATIRI is now a fellow at Yorktown Institute. He most recently was a senior policy analyst at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America. — Former DNI JOHN RATCLIFFE is joining the Heritage Foundation as a visiting fellow for national security, cybersecurity and intelligence.
| | — STACIE PETTYJOHN and HANNAH DENNIS, Center for a New American Security: Production Is deterrence — RAJAN MENON and DANIEL DePETRIS, The Guardian: The Russian coup-that-wasn’t fell flat. The next one might not. — Editorial Board, The Washington Post: Americans should know when foreign powers pay retired military officers
| | — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: What is Next for North Korea? — National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations, 10 a.m.: Pivot or Remain in Place? Examining the United States Military Presence in Arabia and the Gulf — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: Previewing Vilnius: A Conversation with Ambassador DAVID QUARREY — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 10 a.m.: The future of international economic policy with deputy national security adviser MIKE PYLE — German Marshall Fund of the United States and Freedom House, 10 a.m.: A Region Torn and Fragmented? Authoritarian and Democratic Dynamics in Central Europe in the Context of the War in Ukraine — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, 10:30 a.m.: Accelerating 5th-Generation Airpower: Bringing Capability and Capacity to the Merge — American Enterprise Institute, 11 a.m.: Peace in the Pacific: A Conversation with Former Indo-Pacific Commanders — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 12 p.m.: Russia, China and the West in the Post – Cold War Era: The Limits of Liberal Universalism — Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 12 p.m.: Building Deterrence: Security Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific and Beyond — Department of Veterans Affairs, 2 p.m.: VA National Academic Affiliations Council, Notice of Meeting, Amended Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, who would never abandon a plot to capture us. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who we suspect has all the intelligence on the interpersonal drama within the team.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
