LIVIN’ ON A PRAYER: Joe Biden prayed about it. President Donald Trump threatened to hold it up, and then promised to help. Gov. Gavin Newsom says he is working behind the scenes to secure it. Federal aid for wildfire-ravaged swaths of Los Angeles County has become a deeply partisan question in Washington, as our Melanie Mason reported this month — floated as leverage for divisive policies on voter ID at the polls, the federal debt limit and California water policy. But how would such a negotiation actually play out in practice? What kind of federal aid is at stake, and when? What does it all mean for Los Angeles? Tom Frank, a reporter with POLITICO’s E&E News, knows the politics and mechanics of disaster aid inside and out after covering the subject for six years. (You might have seen his piece with colleague Scott Waldman last fall in which a former Trump official said the president at times hesitated to give disaster aid to areas he considered politically hostile — such as California after its deadly 2018 wildfires.) Tom breaks it down for us, and explains why the major disaster declaration Biden approved at the end of his term will help little if the Trump administration decides to delay the money or impose conditions on it. President Trump said publicly last week that disaster aid for California would be contingent on the state conceding on two issues: requiring voter ID at the polls and sending more water from Northern California to the rest of the state. What type of aid is he talking about, and how would this work? Trump didn’t specify the type of aid, but it’s likely he was talking about Federal Emergency Management Agency funds that pay for disaster cleanup and repairs/rebuilding to damaged roads, parks and buildings such as sewer plants and schools. President Joe Biden in his final days authorized California to receive FEMA aid, which is paid as reimbursement to the state. California will get FEMA money when its receipts are approved by FEMA and the White House Office of Management and Budget. Presidents fully control FEMA aid. The operative word in federal disaster law is “may,” as in: “The President may make contributions to a State or local government for the repair, restoration, reconstruction or replacement of a public facility damaged or destroyed by a major disaster.” Trump or any president is probably free to withhold FEMA aid or impose conditions. And any governor would probably sue any president who withheld FEMA aid after it was authorized. A simpler and more-likely scenario would be to amend federal law and add conditions for states to receive FEMA disaster aid. That seems likely the next time Congress approves FEMA disaster funding, which could be as soon as March. Does the major disaster declaration Biden approved for Los Angeles County buy California any time before it finds itself at the mercy of Washington for assistance? Biden’s approval buys nothing for the reasons explained above. Disaster recovery cannot begin until wildfires are extinguished. That hasn’t happened. California has not requested any payment from FEMA and won’t for several months. Biden’s approval did allow residents in the wildfire area to seek and receive a small amount of emergency cash from FEMA. As of Wednesday morning, FEMA had given 24,000 households roughly $2,200 each and has continued to approve applications since Trump took office. Trump has called for overhauling or outright dissolving FEMA. Does that seem like a real possibility — and what might that look like in practice? Overhauling — yes. Dissolving — no. There’s been talk for years about overhauling FEMA. Trump himself signed a law in 2018 that changed some FEMA procedures. Trump’s recent comments about wanting to give states more control over disasters — and implicitly more financial responsibility — are nothing new. Both the Obama administration and Trump’s first administration proposed shifting recovery costs from FEMA to states. But the proposals ran into opposition from members of Congress and states. Even the most ardent budget hawks want federal money for their constituents. Trump recently created the Federal Emergency Management Agency Review Council to recommend changes. The appointees include the three House members — all Republican — whose districts were hit by Hurricane Helene. Will they advocate weakening an agency that is about to give them billions of dollars? Doubtful. Congress enacts revisions to FEMA every few years. The revisions are marginal and have not changed FEMA’s fundamental role. I’d be surprised to see a major overhaul. What happens next in Congress with respect to decisions about LA’s recovery aid, and when? There’s already been talk in Congress about imposing conditions on disaster aid in a budget extension in March. It’s unclear if conditions would target California exclusively or apply nationally. What is the best-case — and the worst-case — scenario for Los Angeles? Best case: The Trump administration handles California’s reimbursement requests as usual, AND President Trump agrees to pay 100 percent of the recovery costs instead of the customary 75 percent. Worst case: FEMA stops processing aid applications from households in the LA area and the Trump administration ignores California’s reimbursement requests, which significantly delays recovery. Most likely: Trump helps California recover. Trump has personal ties to the LA area and spoke at length at a roundtable in Los Angeles Friday about restoring the area as quickly as possible. There’s no political gain for a president to interfere with disaster recovery, even in a state he lost badly. IT’S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. This is California Playbook PM, a POLITICO newsletter that serves as an afternoon temperature check on California politics and a look at what our policy reporters are watching. Got tips or suggestions? Shoot an email to lholden@politico.com.
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