What the June job numbers mean

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Jul 07, 2023 View in browser   By Bethany Irvine Presented by While this month’s job gains fell short of predictions, a slightly lower unemployment rate and steady wages suggest a market that is still going strong. | Steven Senne/AP Photo While last month's jobs report pleasantly defied expectations from economists, this month’s numbers from the Labor Department came in slightly lower than expected — indicating a job market that, while healthy, may be cooling off. According to new figures released this morning, the U.S. economy added 209,000 jobs in June — nearly 100,000 fewer than May's surprisingly high figures. Economists expected a gain of roughly 225,000 jobs. But while this month’s job gains fell short of predictions, a slightly lower unemployment rate and steady wages suggest a market that is still going strong. More from WaPo A look at the numbers: The nation’s total unemployment rate fell from 3.7% in May to 3.6% in June. The unemployment rate for Black Americans rose from 5.6% in May to 6% in June, and increased from 4% to 4.3% for Hispanics.  Jobs in healthcare, government and construction sectors led the payroll increases, while hiring in retail and transportation dropped.  Although June marks the 30th consecutive month of job gains in the U.S. economy, it represents the smallest increase since the end of 2020.  The White House’s perspective: President JOE BIDEN reacted to the lower-than-expected numbers in a statement this morning, calling the economy a sign of “Bidenomics in action.” “We are seeing stable and steady growth,” he said. “That’s Bidenomics — growing the economy by creating jobs, lowering costs for hardworking families and making smart investments in America.” The Fed’s perspective: While the new numbers suggest the Federal Reserve’s efforts to fight inflation may be working, NYT’s Jeanna Smialek points out that the report probably won’t impact the agency’s plans to hike up interest rates going forward: “[S]everal policymakers have been clear that even as the pace moderates, they still expect to raise interest rates further.” As WSJ’s Nick Timiraos sums up: “The figures do little to resolve a debate likely to occur at the July 25-26 meeting over whether and when Fed officials should raise rates again to slow the economy, including at their subsequent gathering in September.” Meanwhile: Federal regulators are hoping to bring retired bank examiners and officials back into the fold — a recruitment effort that “shows banking regulators anticipate more activity in the sector,” WSJ’s Ben Foldy and Andrew Ackerman scoop. The generation gap: “The MTV generation’s unemployment problem,” by Sam Sutton and Victoria Guida: “Workers born between 1964 and 1980 — those currently aged 44 to 59 — represent ‘effectively all of the increase’ in America’s unemployed population over the last half year, according to research by Glassdoor’s Chief Economist AARON TERRAZAS.” YELLEN IN CHINA — Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN met with Chinese Premier LI QIANG today as a part of her four day trip to Beijing NBC’s Evelyn Cheng reports. In prepared remarks, Yellen defended the U.S.’s national security actions, such as recent export control measures on China. “The United States will, in certain circumstances, need to pursue targeted actions to protect its national security,” Yellen said. “And we may disagree in these instances.” Yellen also emphasized that America and its Western allies would push back against China's "unfair economic practices,” Reuters' Andrea Shalal and Joe Cash report. Related reads: “U.S. Raises Pressure on China to Combat Global Fentanyl Crisis,” by NYT’s David Pierson, Edward Wong and Olivia Wang … “The Contentious U.S.-China Relationship, by the Numbers,” by NYT’s Ana Swanson A MALIBU DREAM HOUSE DIVIDED — “GOP declares war on ... Barbie,” by Daniella Diaz: “In a Barbie world, who controls the South China Sea? That’s the question a handful of Republican lawmakers — not to mention much of Southeast Asia — is asking thanks to a background detail in the upcoming ‘Barbie’ movie due out later this month. “The detail in question is a dashed line drawn on a map off the coast of Asia that critics have identified as the nine-dash line, a contested maritime boundary that Beijing draws more than a thousand miles off its own coast to claim the vast majority of the South China Sea as its territory. GOP lawmakers accuse filmmakers of pandering to Chinese censors. But Warner Bros. Film Group, which produced the movie, said Thursday the map is not intended to “'make any type of statement.'” Happy Friday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line: birvine@politico.com   JOIN 7/11 FOR A TALK ON THE FAA’S FUTURE: Congress is making moves to pass the FAA Reauthorization Act, laying the groundwork for the FAA’s long-term agenda to modernize the aviation sector to meet the challenges of today and innovate for tomorrow. Join POLITICO on July 11 to discuss what will make it into the final reauthorization bill and examine how reauthorization will reshape FAA’s priorities and authorities. REGISTER HERE.     HEY BIG SPENDER — Newly released numbers from the Justice Department show that special counsel JACK SMITH spent over $9 million in the four months since his appointment last November to lead the Trump documents probe, Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney report. Smith “incurred about $5.4 million in personnel, rent and other costs on his own budget and prompted about $3.8 million in spending.” “Those figures may dramatically underestimate Smith’s total spending since they only account for his activities through the end of March, excluding the period leading up to Trump’s unprecedented indictment in June as well as a significant escalation of the election-related probe.”   A message from Meta: The metaverse will help students gain more hands-on experience. Students will use augmented reality to look inside the circulatory system and see how it powers the human body—helping them gain a deeper understanding of how our bodies work. The metaverse may be virtual, but the impact will be real. Explore more possibilities with the metaverse.   2024 WATCH  DISPATCH FROM IOWA — CASEY DeSANTIS spoke at the launch of “Mamas for DeSantis” yesterday in Iowa, touting her husband’s record on children and education, Caleb McCullough reports for the Quad-City Times. “We’re mobilizing millions, millions of moms and grandmothers across the United States of America in defense of the innocence of our children,” DeSantis said. ALL POLITICS  DEMOCRACY DIGEST — Asian Americans fear they are being singled out by a slate of new voting laws in states like Florida and Georgia that impose criminal penalties or fines for supporting others in registering to vote, AP’s Ayanna Alexander reports. While many of these laws are being challenged in the courts, “the developments have sowed fear and confusion among groups that provide translators, voter registration help and assistance with mail-in balloting — roles that voting rights advocates say are vital for Asian communities in particular.” THE WHITE HOUSE  CHECKING UP ON HEALTH CARE — The White House will announce proposed rules today aimed at reducing health care expenses, including a crackdown on “junk” insurance policies, an assessment of medical debt on credit cards and new guidelines to avoid unexpected medical bills, AP’s Josh Boak reports. “Gearing up for his 2024 reelection campaign as inflation remains a dominant concern for voters, the Democratic president has emphasized his policies to help families manage their expenses,” Boak writes. “Republican lawmakers have criticized Biden’s policies by saying they have spurred higher prices that hurt the well-being of families.” POLICY CORNER  IMMIGRATION FILES — “More than 100 migrants died from heat near U.S.-Mexico border this year,” by WaPo’s Frances Vinall: “Last week’s fatalities follow 103 deaths and 5,091 rescues through late June. The heat wave threatening Texas and the country’s Southwest is among several worldwide that resulted in the hottest June ever charted globally and Earth’s hottest day on record on July 4.”   A message from Meta:   AMERICA AND THE WORLD BIBI AND BIDEN — “Biden muddles along with Israel as West Bank violence spirals,” by WaPo’s Ishaan Tharoor: “There’s little love lost between President Biden and [Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN] NETANYAHU, who has spent years yoking himself to the agenda of the Republican Party in Washington … But the current administration has shown little appetite to arrest the current course of events in the West Bank, where many fear the likelihood of an explosion of violence similar to the second intifada two decades ago.” SPORTS BLINK — “Tennis has a Russia problem,” by Daria Meshcheriakova: “Wimbledon, the iconic grass court tournament in southwest London, is now in the spotlight, having this year reversed a 2022 ban on Russian and Belarusian players provided they sign a waiver pledging they don’t support the [VLADIMIR] PUTIN regime.” AFTERNOON READ — “The America That Americans Forget,” by NYT’s Sarah Topol: “Guam plays a central role in ‘homeland defense,’ though it rarely shows up on maps or in textbooks about the homeland — no place tries harder to show its patriotism and gets so little recognition in return.” WAR IN UKRAINE  TAKING STOCK — President Biden has formally approved the transfer of a supply of cluster munition to Ukraine to aid in the war effort against Russia, WaPo’s Karen DeYoung, Alex Horton and Missy Ryan report. The move “will bypass U.S. law prohibiting the production, use or transfer of cluster munitions with a failure rate of more than 1 percent,” and “follows months of internal administration debate over whether to supply the controversial munitions, which are banned by most countries in the world.” BEYOND THE BELTWAY  DEEP IN THE HEART — “Texas Republicans divide over impeachment of Attorney General Ken Paxton,” by WaPo’s Molly Hennessy-Fiske MISCELLANY  MUSK READ — “Elon Musk’s SpaceX Now Has a ‘De Facto’ Monopoly on Rocket Launches,” by WSJ’s Micah Maidenberg   Sponsored Survey WE WANT TO HEAR FROM YOU: Please take a 1-minute survey about one of our advertising partners   PLAYBOOKERS SPOTTED at separate tables at breakfast at the Four Seasons this morning: Fred Ryan and Jason Rezaian, and Robert Allbritton and Anna Palmer. MEDIA MOVE — Piper Hudspeth Blackburn is joining CNN Politics as a breaking news writer. She previously was a reporter for Law360. TRANSITION — Stephanie Akpa is now deputy general counsel for the Department of Health and Human Services. She most recently was counselor in the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs at OMB. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.   SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don’t miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. 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