| | | | |  | | By Rachael Bade, Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels | | | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | NEWS NEW JERSEY CAN USE — “The Right Amount of Cash to Keep at Home for Emergencies. Hint: Not $480,000,” by WSJ’s Anne Tergesen and Jeremy Olshan
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Speaker Kevin McCarthy speaks with reporters at the U.S. Capitol Sept. 26, 2023. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | EVER MORE INEVITABLE — On the surface, there was motion: Both the House and Senate last night took procedural steps toward advancing spending legislation. Underneath, there was no movement: Washington is no closer to averting a shutdown. If anything, a Sunday morning shutdown looks as likely as ever. In the House, Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY’s fractious GOP conference finally passed a rule governing debate for four appropriations bills that conservative hard-liners had long blocked from the floor. Sure, it’s a small victory for the California Republican — but it doesn’t address the funding deadline that’s now just four days away. The Senate, meanwhile, advanced a continuing resolution that would fund the government until Nov. 17 — six days before Thanksgiving — providing $6 billion each for Ukraine and disaster aid in the meantime. Despite the big 77-19 procedural vote, it’s already clear the plan is DOA in the House. Instead, McCarthy appears to be coaxing his conference back toward a strategy that already fell apart once this month: focusing an inevitable CR fight on the U.S.-Mexico border. Appearing with the speaker last night, Rep. AUGUST PFLUGER (R-Texas) summed up what top Republicans wish were the theme of the shutdown showdown: “The president needs to make a decision: If he wants to keep the government open, he needs to shut down the border. No border security, no funding.” House Republicans have a number of problems with their strategy — beyond the fact that the party making demands in a shutdown fight rarely gets what it wants.
- The GOP doesn’t want to focus. Sure, you can get just about every Republican in Congress to agree that the border is a problem worth fighting to solve, but you can’t get them to agree that it’s the only problem worth fighting to solve at the moment. Hard-liners continue to push for steep additional spending cuts, Ukraine funding is a red line for many, and DONALD TRUMP is out there pushing to defund the Justice Department.
- McCarthy might not have the votes to pass any CR. McCarthy told reporters late last night he’d bring a border-focused CR to the floor no matter what. But Rep. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.) and his posse insist they have enough votes to tank any Republican CR proposal, and McCarthy has dodged questions about what he’ll do if that happens. Turning to Democrats for votes would mean dropping the border push and sparking a fight over the speaker’s gavel.
- House and Senate Republicans aren’t on the same page. While Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL backed McCarthy every step of the way during debt ceiling talks earlier this year, the former appropriator is again making clear he’s no fan of shutdown brinkmanship. He warned Trump against such a play in 2018 before the 35-day shutdown that won the then-president precisely nothing, and he’s saying it again now, calling shutdowns “bad news” at his weekly presser yesterday.
- History hangs over the border play. McCarthy has hardly been a model of consistency: Last month, he floated a plan to punt a border policy fight until later in the year, to be settled in full-year spending negotiations. Later he pitched a plan to pair border provisions with Ukraine aid in a separate vehicle entirely. And Democrats are ready to seize on another inconsistency: The GOP’s fiscal 2024 Homeland Security appropriations bill, which they hope to pass this week, cuts the agencies overseeing border issues.
- Democrats aren’t going back to the table. Last night, McCarthy tried to suggest the onus was on President JOE BIDEN to avert a shutdown. “All the president has to do is call us up,” he said. “Let's go sit down and get this done before the end of the week.” But Democrats have made their position firm: They’re not reopening talks with a guy who has already backed out of one spending deal already. Biden himself nodded to that fact earlier this week: “We made a deal. We shook hands. … Now they're reneging on the deal.”
Still, McCarthy’s inner circle thinks they have one significant factor in their favor: public opinion. Polling shows signs that Americans are worried about the border and increasingly skeptical of sending taxpayer money to Ukraine aid — good news for Republicans eager to win the messaging war. Expect McCarthy to continue leaning into that frame, even if his members won’t. “If [Democrats] want to … focus on Ukraine and not focus on the southern border, I think their priorities are backwards,” McCarthy said at his presser last night. LOOK WHO’S TALKING — “Paul Ryan predicts government shutdown, hits Trump at UW event,” by the Cap Times’ Andrew Bahl: Former House speaker PAUL RYAN “said he has a ‘hard time seeing’ how Congress averts a government shutdown, calling hard-right resistance to a spending deal nothing more than ‘nihilism.’ … He quipped that the two people he feels sorry for the most are ‘AARON RODGERS and Kevin McCarthy.’” More from AP’s Scott Bauer: “Ryan said in the small number of swing states, including Wisconsin, the election will come down to winning over suburban voters. ‘Do you think those suburban voters like Donald Trump more since Jan. 6?’ Ryan said. ‘I mean, good grief. They didn’t vote for him this last time, they’re not going to vote for him again.’” Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Who are you feeling sorry for? Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from bp: Across the US, bp supports more than 275,000 jobs to keep our energy flowing. Like updating turbines at one of our Indiana wind farms AND producing more secure energy in the Gulf of Mexico. See how else bp is investing in America. | | | THE INCREDIBLE SHRINKING DEBATE — As seven Republican White House hopefuls gather for the second GOP primary debate tonight at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, Calif., we have to ask: Does it really matter? Sure, the first Republican debate was entertaining and enlightening, giving voters a vivid glimpse at some of the important cleavages inside the modern GOP. But in the end, the Republican who saw the biggest post-debate polling bump wasn’t even on the stage. Yep, it was Trump. For all the hype about VIVEK RAMASWAMY’s pugnacious performance during the last debate, he’s seen his numbers sink in polling averages. For all the plaudits about the new, more aggressive posture by MIKE PENCE, he didn’t see much change either. Even NIKKI HALEY, who did actually see a spike in the polls, is still far behind Trump. “This basic lesson from the first debate might just be the most important thing to keep in mind heading into the second Republican debate Wednesday night,” writes NYT’s Nate Cohn in an expectation-setting preview that’s worth reading. “Candidates might be flashy. They might be broadly appealing. They might hit MAGA notes. But after the last debate, there’s that much less reason to think this one will make a big difference in the race. It might even add up to helping Mr. Trump, by splintering his potential opposition.” COUNTERPOINT — “Trump Thinks He Won the Presidential Election… of 2023,” by Jack Shafer: “Someone needs to remind him there’s a lot of campaign left before November 2024, so stop pretending he’s got everything locked up.” Related reads: “Republican candidates embrace Reagan. But he’d be out of step in Trump’s GOP,” by WaPo’s Marianne LeVine and Hannah Knowles … “Republicans face growing urgency to stop Trump as they enter the second presidential debate,” by AP’s Will Wiessert and Steve Peoples … “Where do GOP candidates stand on the issues? See for yourself,” by Lara Priluck and Renee Klahr AWFUL MILESTONE — “D.C. surpasses 200 homicides for the year at earliest point since 1997,” by WaPo’s Emily Davies
| | | | A message from bp:   And, not or. See how it’s driving our investment in America. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The House will meet at 9 a.m. SEC Chair GARY GENSLER will testify before the Financial Services Committee at 10 a.m. EPA Administrator MICHAEL REGAN will testify before the Science Committee at 10 a.m. The Ways and Means Committee will meet in executive session to discuss releasing new HUNTER BIDEN/IRS whistleblower info at 10:30 a.m. The Senate is in. The Banking Committee will mark up long-awaited cannabis banking legislation at 9:30 a.m. 3 things to watch …
- CHUCK SCHUMER will get a chance to revise and extend his remarks on Sen. BOB MENENDEZ’s political future around 2 p.m., when he holds his weekly news conference. Schumer declined to call on Menendez to resign in the immediate aftermath of his bribery indictment Friday, but more than 20 Democratic senators have done so since — including No. 3 party leader DEBBIE STABENOW.
- A high-stakes markup today for a landmark bipartisan marijuana bill comes at a precipitous moment. The SAFER Act, up for consideration at Senate Banking this morning, would pave the way for financial institutions to at long last do business with the state-sanctioned cannabis industry. But last-minute political snags are complicating its path forward, a powerful trade group is airing 11th-hour concerns and four GOP senators are warning the bill sets a “dangerous legal precedent.”
- Live music fans, take notice: The House Energy and Commerce Committee is holding a hearing this morning on a suite of bills — including the “BOSS and SWIFT Act” — meant to bring new transparency and fairness standards to the event ticketing market. It’s a first step toward possible committee and floor action later this Congress.
At the White House Biden is in San Francisco. He will hold a meeting with the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology in the afternoon and later on participate in two campaign receptions. Afterward, he will travel to Phoenix, Ariz.
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President Joe Biden speaks to striking United Auto Workers on the picket line in Van Buren Township, Mich. | Evan Vucci/AP Photo | IN THE STRIKE ZONE — Biden became the first sitting president to join a picket line yesterday when he met up with striking auto workers in Michigan, aligning himself with union members whom he vowed to support in his 2020 campaign and who will go a long way in deciding the winner of next fall’s election. “Wearing a UAW hat and a sweatshirt with the presidential seal, Biden triggered broad applause when he told the crowd of about 200 people that they ‘deserve a significant raise,’” WaPo’s Matt Viser writes from Belleville, Mich. The other side of the aisle: As Trump travels to Michigan today in his own effort to rally blue-collar support from the strike, his GOP presidential opponents will later tonight be attempting a delicate dance, “trying to tap into the former president’s populist playbook without supporting the UAW,” Olivia Olander writes. “All of the candidates see a political opportunity in the strike against Detroit’s ‘Big Three’ automakers, but have been wary of shedding the GOP’s traditional pro-business stance in the process.” Knock-on effect: Behind the scenes, Democratic operatives are eager to piggyback on Biden’s appearance yesterday and the general support for the UAW to push pro-union legislation through Congress, Sam Stein, Myah Ward, Lauren Egan and Lawrence Ukenye report — if for no other reason than to put Republicans expressing sympathy for the strikers on the record. TRUMP CARDS
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New York Attorney General Tish James speaks during a news conference, Sept. 21, 2022, in New York. | Brittainy Newman/AP Photo | TISH V. TRUMP — A judge in New York yesterday found Trump and his company liable for fraud for inflating his net worth in order to deceive banks and insurers, “resolving one of the key claims in a civil fraud lawsuit brought by the New York state attorney general just days before a trial is set to start,” our colleague Erica Orden writes from New York. AG TISH JAMES’ office “has submitted conclusive evidence” that Trump and his co-defendants inflated assets by between $812 million and $2.2 billion from the years 2014 to 2021, the judge said in the filing. It’s a bruising ruling for Trump as the trial — which accuses Trump and others of creating misleading evaluations of the company’s finances — is set to get underway on Monday. Meanwhile: Trump is making the latest shake-up on his legal team, bringing in EMIL BOVE, a former federal prosecutor who was co-chief of the national security unit at the Manhattan U.S. attorney’s office, and KENDRA WHARTON, a seasoned white collar defense lawyer with Capitol Hill ties. The duo is expected to work on Trump’s criminal matters, including the New York case and the federal cases filed by special counsel JACK SMITH, Kyle Cheney and Erica report.
| | | | A message from bp:   Just two of the ways bp is investing in America. | | | THE WHITE HOUSE
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President Joe Biden speaks during an event in Washington, June 23, 2023. | Susan Walsh/AP Photo | BIDEN’S BIG BET — The Biden campaign is “ramping up its strategy this week to try to win over Latino voters, with plans to use Wednesday’s Republican primary debate in California as a backdrop for new efforts to gain support from a critical constituency,” NBC’s Allie Raffa reports, noting that the campaign and DNC Chair JAIME HARRISON plan to “host a series of events focused on Latino voters” on the sidelines of today’s debate. The details: “The campaign’s broader strategy includes tailored ads for Latino voters in battleground states using narrators with accents from their countries or regions of origin; messaging on television and digital platforms that are popular with Latinos; and standing up an early effort to counter misinformation aimed at Latino voters, which Democratic officials believe eroded some support for Biden among Latinos in 2020.” More top reads:
- The House Oversight Committee released records showing that Hunter Biden received wire transfers from a Chinese-linked firm in 2019, listing his father’s address on the documentation. The wires “do not prove that Joe Biden received any of the money,” CNN’s Annie Grayer reports, and Hunter Biden’s lawyers characterized the payments as a “documented loan,” but it shows where GOP investigators are pointed ahead of an initial impeachment hearing tomorrow.
- COMMANDER, the Biden’s oft-in-trouble German Shepard, is in the doghouse again. The 2-year-old presidential pet bit a Secret Service agent on Monday, CNN’s Betsy Klein reports, noting that it’s the 11th known biting incident for Commander.
CONGRESS THE STEPBACK — “The Fall of New Jersey’s ‘Pope,’” by Dustin Racioppi for POLITICO Magazine: “Most people who escaped prison through a hung jury might think twice before jaywalking. Menendez instead threatened his opponents right after the mistrial, won another term a year later and, several people who know him said after Friday’s indictment, seemed emboldened by it all.” Related read: “Latino lawmakers are notably silent as Bob Menendez’s identity gets caught up in bribery charges,” by NBC’s Suzanne Gamboa: “Images issued by the Justice Department of bundles of money atop a jacket with the words ‘Congressional Hispanic Caucus’ caused some to groan and left his colleagues ‘in a pickle,’ a veteran Democratic strategist said. ‘How do you think the CHC feels about that?’ the strategist said.” POLICY CORNER THE PATH OF KHAN — The FTC filed a sprawling antitrust lawsuit against Amazon yesterday, amounting to the agency’s “most ambitious gambit yet” to reel in power of big tech companies in a case that will potentially offer a “decisive test of new liberal antitrust theories,” Josh Sisco writes. “It is also a crucial moment for LINA KHAN, the FTC’s hard-charging 34-year-old chair, who is at the vanguard of a rising cohort of progressive antitrust lawyers who increasingly populate key federal agencies.” Related reads: “The 5 most eye-opening lines in the Amazon lawsuit,” by Josh Sisco … “Khan Seeks to End Amazon ‘Illegal Conduct,’ Quiet on Breakup,” by Bloomberg’s Matt Day and Leah Nylen … “For Amazon’s Andy Jassy, a Cleanup Job Just Got a Lot Bigger,” by NYT’s Karen Weise FOR YOUR RADAR — “Democrats move to expand control over broadband,” by John Hendel BEYOND THE BELTWAY THE MIGRANT MESS — America’s chaotic response to the immigration crisis is rapidly turning into a battle over where to send tens of thousands of asylum seekers, our colleagues Shia Kapos and Lisa Kashinsky write: “The tumultuous situation — and building frustration — is shining a spotlight on the glaring federal void on immigration policy and sparking anxiety among Democrats about the potential fallout heading into the 2024 election cycle.” DeSANTIS DOWNLOAD — One of RON DeSANTIS’ top aides spent hours on the witness stand yesterday defending the legality of a congressional map that dismantled the North Florida district once held by a Black Democrat in the opening salvo of a federal trial that could upend one of the Florida governor’s most significant political victories, Gary Fineout reports from Tallahassee, Fla. During his lengthy testimony, acting chief of staff ALEX KELLY “faulted past rulings by the Florida Supreme Court related to redistricting, questioned how the Legislature handled redistricting at times and made comments that appeared at odds with statements he made in his own depositions.” ALL POLITICS GARDEN STATE GAMBIT — New Jersey first lady TAMMY MURPHY has emerged as a potential name among the chatter about who might run for Menendez’s seat — or be appointed if the New Jersey Democrat steps aside amid his ongoing legal troubles, our colleague Matt Friedman reports. While she has been mentioned as a potential candidate for office before, the whispers have “intensified” as Rep. MIKIE SHERRILL (D-N.J.) indicates she’s likely to run for governor in 2025. Another name to watch: Rep. FRANK PALLONE (D-N.J.) may also be interested in a bid for the seat, The Star-Ledger’s Tom Moran reports. “It's a shocker because he's one of the most powerful Dems in the House, and would be a freshman at age 71,” he notes. BEEHIVE OF ACTIVITY — “Race to replace Mitt Romney heats up as Republican Utah House speaker readies to enter,” by AP’s Mead Gruver JUDICIARY SQUARE WHAT A DRAG — “Texas’ ban on certain drag shows is unconstitutional, federal judge says,” by the Texas Tribune’s Alejandro Serrano and William Melhado
| | | | GO INSIDE THE CAPITOL DOME: From the outset, POLITICO has been your eyes and ears on Capitol Hill, providing the most thorough Congress coverage — from political characters and emerging leaders to leadership squabbles and policy nuggets during committee markups and hearings. We're stepping up our game to ensure you’re fully informed on every key detail inside the Capitol Dome, all day, every day. Start your day with Playbook AM, refuel at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report and enrich your evening discussions with Huddle. Plus, stay updated with real-time buzz all day through our brand new Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Joe Manchin’s new legislation bringing back the old Senate dress code is called the “SHORTS Resolution.” Sully HW Bush was back on the Hill yesterday. Jill Biden is adding a year-round art display made by military children to the White House. Tina Smith has Covid. John Cornyn could have done well on the Borscht Belt. OUT AND ABOUT — The March On Washington Film Festival held its opening night screening at the Motion Picture Association yesterday evening, featuring the D.C. premiere of the documentary “Silver Dollar Road.” Following the screening, CNN’s Jamal Simmons held a discussion with director Raoul Peck and two of the film’s subjects. SPOTTED: Robert Raben, Steve Hartell, Isisara Bey, Scott Foundas, Larry Duncan, Nicole Venable, Brandon Webb, Todd Flournoy, Riley Temple, Kevin McDonald, Carolyn Peachey, Christina Sevilla, Steve Rochlin, Jay Newton Small, Campbell Spencer, Janet Donovan, Kimball Stroud, Liz Sizer, Craig Emanuel and Tamara Buchwald. — Dave Marchick and Pam Kurland hosted a party yesterday evening to celebrate the publication of Chris Ullman’s new book, “Four Billionaires and a Parking Attendant” ($24.95) co-hosted by David Rubenstein, Tom Heath, Michael Abramowitz and Tammy Haddad. SPOTTED: Tony Fauci, Mark Ein, Amy Ricchetti, Josh Dawsey, Shelby Coffey, Alex Rogers, Leslie Dach, Steve Mufson, Carol Melton, Don Baer, Robin Goldman, Ben Meng and Josh Randle. — Susanna Quinn, Stephanie Cutter, Adrienne Elrod, Alixe Peek and Rickie Niceta hosted a party for Brian Sawyer and John Berson’s book, “Sawyer/Berson: Houses and Landscapes” ($61.36) at the Quinn home yesterday evening. SPOTTED: Chesie Breen, Dan Koh, Amy Sennett, Mark Ein, Ann Morrell, Gwen Holliday, Reema Dodin, Liz Johnson, Eric Schultz, Peggy Bennett, Jen Bendery, Jennifer Griffin, Weijia Jiang, Nancy Nagley, Kate Bennett, Pamela Brown, Daniel Heider, Mariel Saez, Opal Vadhan, Avery Miller, Robyn Bash, Ajay Kori, Jackie Kucinich, Phil Rucker, Josh Dawsey, Shanti Stanton, Sharon and Bruce Bradley, Suzanne Folsom, Kristin Cecci, Jamie Dorros and Francesca Craig. TRANSITIONS — P2 Public Affairs is adding Scott Paradise, Allison Harris, Chris Hartline and Katie Miller as principals. Paradise most recently was campaign manager for Herschel Walker’s Georgia Senate bid. Harris most recently was White House correspondent for News Nation. Hartline most recently was a senior adviser to Sen. Rick Scott’s (R-Fla.) reelect. Miller previously was comms director for former VP Mike Pence. … Karin O’Leary has joined NTIA as the agency’s first deputy assistant secretary for operations and administration. She most recently was lead account partner for IBM’s business portfolio for DOJ and the U.S. courts. … … Tucker Middleton has returned to Putnam Partners as a partner. She previously was principal and executive producer at McKenna Media. … Luke Bassett is now senior adviser and director of policy and program impact for Treasury’s Inflation Reduction Act Program Office. He previously was a senior professional staff member for the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee under Chair Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). … Matthew Ellison is now deputy executive secretary at the Treasury Department. He most recently was policy director for the House assistant Democratic leader. ENGAGED — Luke Garrett, a podcast host and reporter at WTOP News, and Kaia Hubbard, a congressional reporter at U.S. News & World Report, got engaged Friday on Mission Beach in San Diego, Calif. They met at the University of San Diego in 2016. Pic WEEKEND WEDDING — Joe Radosevich, VP of campaigns and outreach at Center for American Progress, and Brian Krebs, SVP of paid media at Precision Strategies, got married in Sonoma County, Calif. Pic … Another pic … SPOTTED: Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), whose 2018 reelection Radosevich managed, singing front row at the piano during show tunes. — Maya Serkin, senior manager of client success at Indigov, and Michael Jones, execution services trader at Jump Trading LLC, got married at the Sculpture Garden at Bridgeport Art Center on Sept. 16. The couple met in NYC. Pic … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.), Andrew Garbarino (R-N.Y.), Adriano Espaillat (D-N.Y.) and Ed Case (D-Hawaii) … Juleanna Glover … WaPo’s Tony Romm … Anne-Marie Slaughter of New America … BGR Public Relations’ Jeff Birnbaum … POLITICO’s Meridith McGraw, Steven Overly, Anne Mulkern, Nick Tedesco and Molly Fruits … Geoff Burgan … League of Conservation Voters’ Sara Chieffo … Marty Franks … Peebles Squire … Madison Group’s Marcus Sebastian Mason … Dan Raviv … Brendan Dunn of Akin Gump … American Cleaning Institute’s Kristin DiNicolantonio … René Carbone Bardorf … ABC’s Matthew Vann … former Rep. Peter Kostmayer (D-Pa.) … Caitlyn Schneeweiss … Axios’ Cuneyt Dil … Zach Barnett of Rep. Garret Graves’ (R-La.) office (3-0) … Sam Raskin … Abby Curran Horrell … Alexa (Wertman) Brown … Laura Whitefield … CBS’ Ellee Watson … Curtis LeGeyt of the National Association of Broadcasters … Josh Mandel … Michael Pierce of Horizon Government Affairs Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producer Bethany Irvine. Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook used an incorrect name for the Bipartisan Policy Center.
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