Tight timelines ahead

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Oct 30, 2023 View in browser
 
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By Ry Rivard and Marie J. French

Good morning and welcome to the weekly Monday edition of the New York & New Jersey Energy newsletter. We'll take a look at the week ahead and look back on what you may have missed last week.

QUICK FIX

TIGHT TIMELINES AHEAD: Developers seeking state subsidies for their renewable projects and NYSERDA, which awards those contracts, are facing an extremely busy last few months of the year. The authority has set deadlines this week for companies to weigh in on a proposed timeline and structure of the upcoming large-scale renewables and offshore wind solicitations aimed at addressing potential attrition from developers choosing to cancel previously awarded contracts. The authority then expects to issue requests for proposals potentially for both types of resources before the end of the year, with an aggressive timeline to evaluate bids and make awards. “We asked some very specific questions of the market that will be impactful as to the actual design of the RFPs,” said NYSERDA president and CEO Doreen Harris. “This in many ways is taking the experience that we have in running these procurements for 20 years and necessitating an extraordinary amount of efficiency but rigor on our part.”

This fast-paced solicitation could be a boon for offshore wind developers who say their contracts are no longer viable. On Friday morning, fossil fuel giant Equinor officials told the media and investors that it was taking a $300 million impairment for its U.S. offshore wind business after New York regulators refused to increase the price for their contracts signed in 2019 and 2022. The remaining $300 million valuation pegs the projects at about $100 million and New York real estate and cable equipment, “contracts related to ships and turbines, which can be used other places in the portfolio as well,” at $200 million, Equinor chief financial officer Torgrim Reitan said.

The Norwegian state-owned company estimated the potential termination fee for the contracts with NYSERDA at about $16 million. Officials noted Equinor paid what’s now viewed as a bargain price in 2016 for the lease area where Empire Wind 1 and 2 are located — just $42 million — and later booked a $1 billion gain from the sale of a 50 percent stake in its projects to BP. Equinor also holds a contract for Beacon Wind 1.

The company views the prospect of a new offshore wind solicitation positively. ““I do find that as a signal of their commitment and willingness to push forward,” Reitan said. “We welcome this but it is important to say that our projects, they must be financially robust to proceed.” In terms of what Equinor might look for from future bids, Reitan indicated the requested prices in the petition to the PSC “clearly illustrates changes that need to happen.”

In a statement, the developers of Sunrise Wind, being developed by Orsted and Eversource, expressed interest in NYSERDA’s new process. “While we are cautiously optimistic the state recognizes the compressed timeline upon which they need to act, it’s especially important given that each stage of the state’s offshore wind buildout is predicated on the successful and timely completion of each previous phase for foundational elements like port infrastructure, vessel construction, supply chain investments and manufacturing,” the company said in a statement. “Fundamentally, if we don’t keep the early projects like Sunrise Wind on their current timeline, it could have negative consequences for subsequent projects in the state’s offshore wind pipeline.” Sunrise Wind has already done work on the onshore cable route for the project and faces looming decisions on whether to continue moving forward.

NYSERDA has sought to quell concerns from the offshore wind industry, with Gov. Kathy Hochul announcing three new awards last week alongside a portfolio of onshore renewables. The projects that won in June 2022 have been delaying signing contracts because of inflation and supply chain pressures. NYSERDA has now given them a deadline of Nov. 30 to decide whether or not to accept those awards. That will give the authority a better handle on the impact of the PSC’s inflation adjustment decision on the pipeline.

About those new onshore contracts… The weighted average price was lower than the increased level that previously awarded developers sought from the Public Service Commission. The increase would have resulted in an average strike price in nominal dollars of about $104 per MWh compared to the newly awarded price of $80.96.

That’s in part due to the six wind repowering awards to a portfolio of projects the developer AES — which opposed the inflation adjustment its competitors backed — acquired at the end of 2021. The PSC changed the criteria for renewable repowering projects and made it easier for them to qualify for Tier 1 renewable awards in a 2020 order.

Harris acknowledged the inclusion of the repowerings brought the average price down. A large 400 MW Pennsylvania solar project on reclaimed mine land was also a factor, given the different permitting and economics in that state. NYSERDA’s cost calculations don’t account for potential future price increases due to the inflation adjustment included for some of the new awards. “It adds another point of variability,” Harris said. Full pricing details will be available once the contracts are executed.

Only the incremental additional generation from the repowering projects is counted in NYSERDA’s calculation of under contract and existing projects totalling to 79 percent of forecast electric demand in 2030.

As part of the new, expedited solicitation for onshore projects, NYSERDA is considering dropping the storage option for projects. That could have implications for the state’s storage goal of 6 gigawatts by 2030. It might also pose difficulties for previously awarded projects if they are far advanced in the interconnection process. “This is an example of a tradeoff that we are debating,” Harris said. “Adding storage adds complexity to a bid and its evaluation.” Harris said it wouldn’t have material impacts to achieving the 2030 storage goal because subsequent solicitations including in 2024 would likely return to the standard approach. NYSERDA also asked for input on requiring projects in the 2023 solicitation to already have a permit or have one actively under review. “We are seeking to strike a balance, a balance between a robust competitive pool of bidders and requirements that would bring forward more mature projects,” Harris said. “When we’re looking at these RFPS as targeting the recalibration of our pipeline, necessarily we’re looking for projects that are more advanced, less subject to attrition and ultimately able to deliver on the timelines we’re seeking.” Responses from developers will tell NYSERDA whether they’ve gone too far one way or the other. So get those comments in. — Marie J. French

HAPPY MONDAY MORNING: Let us know if you have tips, story ideas or life advice. We're always here at mfrench@politico.com and rrivard@politico.com. And if you like this letter, please tell a friend and/or loved one to sign up.

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Here's what we're watching this week:

TUESDAY
— PSEG is reporting third quarter earnings and holding a call with analysts at 11 a.m.

WEDNESDAY
— Orsted will be doing a closely watched results call and update for investors and analysts, 8 a.m.

— NYSERDA and U.S. Department of Energy officials discuss avenues to unlock federal Title 17 loan guarantees with state funding, 1 p.m.

THURSDAY
— Responses to NYSERDA’s request for information on a new offshore wind solicitation are due.

FRIDAY
— Responses to NYSERDA’s request for information on a large-scale renewables solicitation are due.

AROUND NEW YORK

— Gas infrastructure inspections have led to shut offs at low-income co-ops that face costly repairs.

Around New Jersey

— What the public comments say about the Murphy administration’s plans to ban the sale of new gas-powered cars by 2035.

— A profile of Kerry Pflugh, the new head of the New Jersey School of Conservation, a famed environmental education center that was saved from closure.

What you may have missed

RENEWABLE CONSTRUCTION CONCERNS: Companies building renewable projects to support New York’s climate goals are worried about how much work they’ll have in the state in 2024 as developers press pause and wait for a new bidding process from NYSERDA. Developers and their suppliers, lobbyists and regulators gathered Thursday at the Alliance for Clean Energy New York’s fall conference, which reported record attendance. “We just came off a year, ‘23 where there was not a single wind start, and now it looks like we're going to go into ‘24 with a high probability” of perhaps two projects starting construction, said Tim Delaney, president of The Wesson Group, which has worked on many of New York’s wind projects. The decision to reject an adjustment for contracted projects was a setback, he said, noting the company was expecting several 100 millions of dollars worth of work and had started hiring. The decision and its aftermath was “an emotional rollercoaster,” said CS Energy’s Matthew Skidmore. The company builds solar projects in New York and elsewhere. “There's challenges as it relates to putting work in place, because there's no work happening,” he said. “So we have to look elsewhere, in other states or other markets that are moving forward.” They raised concerns about the challenge of hiring up for these projects in a tighter timeframe and additional difficulty when previously promised work hasn’t materialized for union workers.

“My business over the last 10 days has been saying, ‘What can we pause,’” said John Carson, CEO of Cordelio Power. The company is owned by a Canadian pension fund and bought a 900 MW portfolio of solar projects in New York from SunEast Development in 2022. Of those, about 600 MW are contracted with NYSERDA. He said the company is still committed to its projects in New York but laid out a number of concerns and requests. Carson noted that some contracts with landowners are poised to expire, delays will increase financing costs because of rising interest rates and there are upcoming deadlines from the New York Independent System Operator where flexibility might not be available. Carson said he hopes NYSERDA offers flexibility on contract security that has been put up for contracted projects. “This may sound wistful, but I’m still a believer that this kind of growth is going to happen here in New York,” he said.

Hochul’s administration is working feverishly to quell the concerns from developers. NYSERDA is charting a path for itself to potentially release two major solicitations — for onshore large-scale renewables and offshore wind — before the end of the year. They’re targeting onshore awards by April next year, which would be a much faster timeline than in recent year. Offshore wind awards could be similarly accelerated. “We need to continue our momentum. I see this week as a turning of the tide,” NYSERDA president and CEO Doreen Harris told renewable developers at the event.

She pointed particularly to Hochul’s announcement last week of the major offshore wind and onshore renewables. “So colleagues — never be complacent about these awards,” she said. “I'm committed to continuing the cadence, but it is only because each of you and the projects that you bring forward that we can find ourselves in a situation where 6.4 gigawatts becomes the headline.”

Harris highlighted the request for information NYSERDA released shortly before her remarks. “The structure, the process, the timeline, and the approach taken to expedited procurements, is one that we want to get right,” Harris said. “There can be no room for wasted time but also no wasted action.”

As some developers mull whether to back away from New York, Harris advised that the industry consider who historians would be writing about as they tell the tale of the clean energy transition. “What courageous visionaries in this room will be shaping that next chapter? I tell you what, they won't be writing about people who cover their eyes and ears and hunker down in a defensive crouch,” she said. “They won't be writing about the ones who decided to pull up stakes and move to the next market where the grass may appear greener. They'll be writing about the ones who saw this moment and chose to believe in this diverse energy future with the state of New York as your partner.” — Marie J. French

FOR WHOM BLOCKS THE TOLLS — POLITICO’s Ry Rivard: Under political pressure, New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy vetoed a toll increase Thursday, just two days after his administration approved it, prompting legislative leaders in his own party to cry foul.

THIRD TIME A CHARM ON TRANSMISSION? — The New Jersey Board of Public Utilities is rebidding a transmission line project the state needs to help bring the next wave of offshore wind energy ashore. On Wednesday, the BPU said it no longer made sense to ask energy companies bidding for generation projects to be the only companies eligible to build the infrastructure that would cross a shore to connect the onshore grid with the offshore wind farms.

The transmission project, known as “prebuild infrastructure,” will be used by what is currently expected to be the third wave of projects approved by the state. In two previous generation solicitations, the state has approved three wind farms — though they are each facing various kinds of legal, political and financial challenges. The power lines that cross shores are pain points for the state and for energy companies because they are one of the few parts of a project that local officials who oppose offshore wind farms can use to attempt to block projects. Each of the three approved wind farms is responsible for building its own transmission lines to get power ashore. But the next wave of projects — which four companies are bidding to build — are expected to connect at a single point to $1 billion of onshore transmission infrastructure the BPU approved last year. When it approved that series of transmission projects, the BPU passed on approving a shore-crossing project and it had put that part of the transmission system up for bid in the next generation solicitation.

But BPU found that including the cost of that project in the cost of generated power “represents an unreasonable burden for New Jersey’s ratepayers.” Some of that may involve various cost recovery mechanisms that can be used.

“I understand the frustration that this must cause on behalf of some of the developers that solicited in good faith,” said BPU commissioner Zenon Christodoulou. “But we appreciate their partnership and look forward to working with them in the future to provide and promote a better product that will serve them, the projects and the ratepayers.”

Bidding out just the transmission project also opens up work to companies that are not interested in building offshore generation.

— The BPU also further delayed the next three-year energy efficiency cycle. The cycle was expected to start next year but now won’t begin until the start of 2025, a six-month delay. The BPU cited staffing issues as a main reason for the delay. — Ry Rivard

TOLL FIGHT — POLITICO’s Ry Rivard: New Jersey Democratic leaders want Gov. Phil Murphy’s administration to undo toll hikes it approved two weeks before an election that could determine whether the party maintains its hold on power. But it's an increase they could have vocally opposed for years.

NYPA EXPLORES RENEWABLES ROLE — POLITICO’s Marie J. French: While developers mull the future of their New York renewable energy projects, the country’s largest state-owned power company is assessing the market with an eye to filling any gaps. New York Power Authority officials, who operate the state’s large-scale hydropower dams that supply most of its renewable energy, plan to release a report on the status of achieving New York’s climate goals later this year. And it could play an instrumental role in helping salvage those goals as private developers decide on projects whose future hangs in the balance.

OFFSHORE WIND BOOST: Gov. Kathy Hochul announced a massive suite of new offshore wind contracts for New York on Tuesday, changing the subject from her veto of a key measure to support a previously contracted project and the financial dilemma facing incumbent developers. The three provisional awards total more than 4,000 megawatts. The current NYSERDA offshore wind contracts total 4,230 megawatts — and developers of those projects are evaluating the planned investments following the state’s decision to reject an inflation adjustment to deal with higher-than-expected costs last week.

But New York is forging ahead. Hochul downplayed the turmoil facing the state’s renewable industry, describing it as “already thriving” at the announcement in Long Island City. “We're not waiting any longer. This is a historic investment to demonstrate our full commitment to renewables,” Hochul said. She also expressed a firm commitment to meeting New York’s statutory goal of zero emission electricity by 2040 and reducing emissions from 1990 levels by 85 percent in 2050. “ I'm not afraid of those numbers,” she said, although she proposed changing the state’s climate law due to cost concerns earlier this year. “People say, ‘Oh, you're going to make it?’ Don't worry, I have the team, we have the commitment, we have the workers, we have the opportunities, and we have the will.”

NYSERDA’s portfolio of contracted projects potentially under review by developers, including offshore wind and onshore projects, accounts for 22 percent of forecast statewide load in 2030. The awards announced Tuesday would supply about 12 percent of 2030 load, bringing the state closer to its 70 percent mandate. The average cost for the newly awarded offshore wind projects were lower than the higher prices requested by Equinor and BP for their projects but higher than what Sunrise Wind, developed by Ørsted and Eversource, asked for. It’s also not clear how much the prices reported by the state might rise due to cost-sharing for interconnection and an inflation adjustment that will be based on increases between the awards and federal approvals of the projects.

The announcement was a much-needed boost for the industry. “New York is absolutely leading the way and continues to lead the way,” said Doug Perkins, president of Community Offshore Wind, which secured a provisional award and is backed by National Grid Ventures and RWE. “The statement today is what the industry needed. So I think it's that positive momentum that we really are going to just continue from here.” The Community Offshore Wind option selected by NYSERDA will plug in at Con Ed’s offshore wind hub in Brooklyn. How the upgrades for that will be paid for will likely be the subject of PSC action. — Marie J. French

DEMS WORRY ABOUT MURPHY EV CAR PLAN — POLITICO’s Ry Rivard: Some Democratic lawmakers have serious concerns about Gov. Phil Murphy’s move to ban the sale of new gasoline-powered cars by 2035.

The concerns — including outright opposition — were revealed in public comments on the plan to phase out gas-powered cars. Murphy is looking to follow a rule already adopted by California Gov. Gavin Newsom and is considered a key step to curbing climate change.

The rule proposal signals the end of the internal combustion engine’s era, but the Democrats’ concerns are increasingly divided about Murphy’s environmental agenda. Already, key Democrats have expressed reservations about the costs of offshore wind, an issue that has become a focus in several campaigns. All 120 legislative seats are on the ballot this year.

RECYCLING REDUX: Efforts to tackle New York’s waste problems have languished in the Legislature for years, with little progress on a sweeping effort to reduce packaging and revamp the longstanding bottle deposit system. The relatively new chairs of the Assembly and Senate Environmental Conservation Committees, however, are signaling it’s a major priority in their second year working together. Sen. Pete Harckham and Assemblymember Deborah Glick convened a hearing on expanding the bottle bill on Monday and will hold another on a broader extended producer responsibility measure today.

The issues remain the same as in previous years on the bottle bill. Environmental groups are pushing for an increase in the deposit to 10 cents and for more beverage containers to be covered. “All beverage containers should be dealt with in the system that already exists and has been road tested over 40 years,” said NYPIRG’s Blair Horner. Producers of liquor, wine and other beverages have raised concerns. Convenience stores oppose an expansion unless they can more easily partner with redemption centers to accept used containers. Some advocates want requirements for a refillable container system. Redemption centers are pushing for an increase to the state-mandated handling fee.

“We are being crippled because the state has left us behind,” said Jade Eddy, owner of MT Returnables. She’s put her business in Queensbury up for sale as costs continue to outstrip the 3.5 cent handling fee that redemption centers earn per container. The fee hasn’t been increased since 2008. She said lawmakers should hold an emergency session to prevent more centers from closing in the coming months — an unlikely prospect. “Our pay goes down with the ship every single year,” Eddy said, noting how the fee issue gets tied into the broader debate on packaging reduction.

Concerns about fraud in the redemption system have often been raised during efforts to change or expand the bottle bill. Matthew Krug, director of the New York Environmental Conservation Police Officers Benevolent Association, warned of declining enforcement due to a lack of staffing. He also said the time-intensive investigations don’t always lead to charges because of the difficulty of prosecuting them. Meanwhile, the Department of Environmental Conservation announced a multi-agency task force on fraud. “This newly launched effort will help foster coordination among state and local partners across the many jurisdictions included in Bottle Bill enforcement to help recoup lost revenue, hold violators accountable, and eliminate the competitive disadvantage experienced by companies that play by the rules,” DEC Commissioner Basil Seggos said in a statement. The State Department of Taxation and Finance, Department of Agriculture and Markets, State Liquor Authority, and others will work on “collecting and interpreting data, auditing records, inspecting and certifying redemption and counting equipment, investigating complaints, and preventing or prosecuting fraudulent activities,” the DEC announced. — Marie J. French

PSE&G CEO ON TRANSITION — PSEG CEO Ralph LaRossa said he’s concerned about how quickly the state moves to electrify everything. “Man, don’t electrify too fast either,” he said during a panel discussion last Monday, before talking about how when one of the company’s nuclear plants went down for scheduled maintenance this week, the carbon-free energy that it would have generated was replaced by natural gas or coal-fired power from nearby states that shared the same regional grid as New Jersey. “Let’s really think about what we’re doing here, because I don’t want to turn on another coal plant,” he said. The comments came during a panel discussion with the heads of New Jersey Resources Corp. and South Jersey Industries at the Steve Sweeney Center for Public Policy at Rowan University. — Ry Rivard

 

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