The newest member of Congress will be decided this week

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Nov 20, 2023 View in browser
 
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By Madison Fernandez

PROGRAMMING NOTE: We’ll be off for Thanksgiving this Thursday and Friday but back to our normal schedule on Monday, Nov. 27.

TOP LINE

Relatively few voters are turning out to fill the House's last vacancy in the latest off-year special election.

Around a quarter of voters had ballots returned and processed as of Friday for Tuesday’s contest in UT-02 between Republican Celeste Maloy and Democrat Kathleen Riebe. Former GOP Rep. Chris Stewart stepped away from UT-02 — a district that favors Republicans — earlier this year.

Bruce Hough and Celeste Maloy speak.

Celeste Maloy speaks to primary opponent Bruce Hough after the 2nd Congressional District Republican primary debate on Aug. 4, 2023, in Farmington, Utah. | Rick Bowmer/AP Photo

Maloy prevailed in September’s competitive primary over other high-profile candidates, despite being relatively unknown to voters. She also overcame controversy when opponents unsuccessfully tried to kick her off the ballot after they learned that she wasn’t registered to vote as a Republican in Utah when she filed to run for the seat. During her campaign, she’s leaned on her grassroots connections in rural southern Utah, as well as her experience in Washington as a former aide to Stewart.

“I've avoided a lot of the social issues and red meat issues that people get wound up about,” Maloy said in an interview with Score. “There's sort of a misconception out there that you have to feed voters political junk food all the time. … You can still win a race on talking about our system of government and how it's supposed to work.”

Both candidates have emphasized their willingness to work across the aisle and have centered kitchen-table issues during their campaign. But Riebe, a moderate state senator and educator, has also utilized a common message Democrats across the country have deployed: Maloy, and her stance on abortion rights, is “too extreme.”

Maloy called the attack over abortion a “distraction” and said she’s ignoring it. She said that she is “unapologetically pro-life,” but “there should be exceptions for rape and health of the mother.” She has not waded into the debate regarding after how many weeks abortion should be banned, and said she would not do so until she gets to Congress.

She also is mum on who she’s planning to support in the presidential race, only noting that she’ll back the Republican nominee. When asked if she associates herself with the MAGA wing of the Republican Party, Maloy, who describes herself as a "traditional conservative" and a "platform Republican," said she avoids discussing that.

“It seems to me like the national media wants to use that as a litmus test for everything,” she said. “Voters don't seem as interested in that.”

Maloy has a large fundraising and cash-on-hand advantage over Riebe. But the Democrat has spent more than twice as much as Maloy over the last month. Maloy said that she is not running television ads to be “frugal with donor dollars.” If she wins, she noted, she’ll have to start campaigning for reelection in just a couple of months.

A path to victory for Riebe could be challenging in the district, which voted for former President Donald Trump by double digits in 2020. But she said she’s hopeful that a competitive mayoral race in Democratic-leaning Salt Lake City will bolster Democratic turnout. So far, rural voter turnout has surpassed urban turnout.

“If we can build a bench and increase our numbers and have a strong showing in this race, that's going to be a win regardless of whether I actually make it across the finish line,” Riebe told Score.

Happy Monday. Reach me at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616.

Days until the Iowa Republican presidential caucuses: 56

Days until the Republican National Convention: 238

Days until the Democratic National Convention: 273

Days until the 2024 election: 351

 

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Presidential Big Board

AGE IS JUST A NUMBER — There are “deep concerns” among President Joe Biden donors and fundraisers, Democratic strategists and party officials that the president’s reelection campaign’s “approach to his age isn’t enough to quell voters’ fears about it,” POLITICO’s Elena Schneider, Holly Otterbein and Jonathan Lemire write. “Many donors are directly urging top campaign aides to go on offense, leaning even harder into Biden’s age as proof of his wisdom in turbulent times. They are pushing for more humor about ‘Grandpa Joe.’”

Some are concerned that “not enough has been done to place a similarly harsh spotlight on the fact that Trump himself is 77.” Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, meanwhile, took aim at Trump’s age on Sunday. “The presidency is not a job for somebody that’s pushing 80 years old,” he said on CNN’s “State of the Union.”

TRUMP TRIALS — Trump can continue to run for president — even though he engaged in an insurrection, a Colorado judge ruled Friday. The ruling came in a case brought by progressive activists, who pointed to an interpretation of the 14th Amendment that argues he is ineligible for public office for aiding “in insurrection or rebellion.” A handful of judges in other states have also rejected that argument. Read more from POLITICO’s Zach Montellaro, Erica Orden and Kyle Cheney.

ENDORSEMENT CORNER — Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott endorsed Trump’s presidential bid.

… Iowa evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats’ expected endorsement of DeSantis could test “not only the clout of his own endorsement, but the willingness of evangelicals to abandon Trump,” POLITICO’s Sally Goldenberg writes from Iowa.

CAMPAIGN INTEL

2024 WATCH — Michigan Republican Paul Junge is running again for MI-08, which he lost by around 10 points last year to Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee. Kildee announced last week that he’s retiring at the end of his term. MLive’s Simon Schuster and Ron Fonger break down who else could run in the competitive district, including Democratic Michigan State Board of Education President Pamela Pugh, who is currently running for Senate.

IN THE STATES — Democratic California state Senate President Pro Tem Toni Atkins is considering a run for governor in 2026, she told The Associated Press’ Adam Beam. She’s stepping down as the leader of the state Senate next year. A handful of Democrats have already launched bids to succeed Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom.

OFF THE AIR — The New Jersey governor’s office is stopping airing ads that feature first lady Tammy Murphy’s voice amid her Senate run, the New Jersey Globe’s David Wildstein reports. “The New Jersey Department of Human Services was spending $100,000 to air radio commercials using the first lady’s voice to advocate for her signature issue, maternal and infant health. The use of tax dollars to fund ads featuring Murphy comes at a time when some Democrats are questioning whether Gov. Phil Murphy is using the power of this office to secure a Senate seat for his wife.”

… Speaking of New Jersey: Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.), a likely 2025 gubernatorial candidate, is backing Tammy Murphy for Senate, becoming the first member of the congressional delegation to endorse in the race. Another member of the delegation — Democratic Rep. Andy Kim — is also in the race.

POLL POSITION

PRESIDENTIAL — New Hampshire: Trump maintains a commanding lead in the first-in-the-nation primary state, according to a Washington Post-Monmouth University poll. The former president has 46 percent of support. Former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley is in second place — consistent with other recent polling — with 18 percent. She’s followed by former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who has 11 percent. The other candidates are in the single-digits (606 potential Republican primary voters, Nov. 9-14, MoE +/- 4.5 percentage points).

MI-Sen — Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) is statistically tied with Republican opponents in a hypothetical general election match-up, per a poll from EPIC-MRA, a Michigan-based research firm. When up against former Rep. Mike Rogers, Slotkin leads 39-37. Against former Detroit Police Chief James Craig, she leads 40-38. The poll did not include the other GOP candidates running for the seat (600 likely voters, Nov. 10-16, MoE +/- 4 percentage points).

CODA: QUOTE OF THE DAY — “It’s insane and it adds no value to my life.” — retiring Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-Ore.) to Punchbowl News about life in Congress.

 

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