Top dogs descend on biggest COP ever

Nov 30, 2023

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WELCOME TO DAY 2 of POLITICO’s Global Playbook. I’m Suzanne Lynch, coming to you from the COP28 climate talks in the Arabian desert. Yes, you read that right: World leaders and negotiators have gathered to try to make progress on combating climate change — in one of the planet’s most oil-dependent regions.

Today is traditionally a top-drawer day in the COP calendar, the first of two days of high-level meetings where heads of state and government deliver national statements and aim to use their political heft to get an agreement over the line. Or, depending on your perspective, they steal the limelight from the diligent negotiators who’ve actually been doing all the work since the last COP.

PREPARE FOR GRIDLOCK: Expect traffic chaos in Dubai today, with restrictions on the main Sheikh Zayed Road, which runs through the city, linking Dubai Airport to Abu Dhabi down the coast.

WHAT’S UP WITH THE FLAGS? It’s not just the cavalcades of leaders bringing Dubai to a standstill. The UAE is gearing up for its national day on Saturday, which marks the formation of the United Arab Emirates 52 years ago — hence the sea of national flags dotted around the city this week.

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ON STAGE TODAY: Among those scheduled to speak today are Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the European Union’s Charles Michel and Ursula von der Leyen, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, President of Seychelles Wavel John Charles Ramkalawan, Prime Minister of Denmark Mette Frederiksen, South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa and Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

Awkward timing: Israeli President Isaac Herzog and head of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas are due to speak just a few sessions apart this afternoon. The Israeli government said Herzog will also hold a “series of diplomatic meetings on the importance of releasing the hostages,” on his first foreign visit since the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks.

Middle East rumblings: Several leaders are expected to hold side meetings on the crisis in Israel and Gaza, with French President Emmanuel Macron due to meet Herzog and Arab leaders before visiting Qatar on Saturday. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who has just met Herzog in Tel Aviv and Abbas in Ramallah, will also be in town as part of the U.S. COP delegation, which also includes Vice President Kamala Harris and USAID chief Samantha Power.

DEAL ON LOSS AND DAMAGE

WHEN THE DEAL IS DONE: There was only one topic at dinners and parties around town last night — and the development which is set to dominate today’s events too: Thursday’s official agreement on the Loss and Damage Fund.

Post-Sharm hangover: Reminder: Agreement on a pot of cash to help poorer countries impacted by climate change was the signature achievement of last year’s COP in Sharm El-Sheikh … and countries have been fighting about it ever since.

Al-Jaber victory lap: COP President Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber hailed the agreement as “unprecedented” and “historic” in an early-evening press conference Thursday. “The fact that we were able to get the agenda voted and agreed on without any delay — for those who have been involved in previous COPs, this is just unprecedented,” he declared.

Pressure to act: Almost immediately, pledges from individual countries started rolling in — $420 million was promised in the first hour after the agreement, according to al-Jaber. The UAE itself pledged $100 million, putting pressure on big emitters like the United States, China and Saudi Arabia to cough up the cash.

Can we go home now? Not quite. Though agreement on loss and damage was a big boost to the COP organizers, plenty of work remains to be done as the climate summit rolls on through December 12 — not least on fossil fuels. Speaking of which …

DOWN VS. OUT: A global deal on ending the use of fossil fuels was mired in division as the climate talks opened on Thursday, report my colleagues Sara Schonhardt, Zack Colman, Karl Mathiesen, Zia Weise and Charlie Cooper. Divisions remained over whether to “phase down” or “phase out” — and whether nations should set deadlines for ditching their polluting energy sources.

What al-Jaber doesn’t want us to talk about: Major polluters have signaled they’re not on board — not least the UAE. Al-Jaber refused to join the EU in calling for a “phase out” of fossil fuels during a bilateral meeting in Brussels this month, according to a European Commission official.

Shout out to the oil bros: Al-Jaber used his opening address Thursday to call for the “inclusion of the role of fossil fuels” in any final climate agreement, and gave a shout-out to oil companies. “They can lead the way,” he said, while also highlighting his outreach to poorer countries. 

PAPA PREACH! He may have canceled his trip to COP for health reasons, but the climate-conscious Pope Francis urged his followers not to give up the climate fight via cyber-space. He called on delegates to “focus on the common good and the future of their children, rather than the vested interests of certain countries or businesses,” in a post on social media. 

MISINFORMATION WARNING: A report from Climate Action Against Disinformation has laid out the extent of efforts to spread doubt online about climate change ahead of COP28, Karl Mathieson reports. One detail tells the story — since December 2022, the hashtag #ClimateScam has outperformed both #ClimateCrisis and #ClimateEmergency on social media platform X.

POLITICO MUST READ

DUBAI BFFS — THE TIES THAT BIND AL-JABER AND JOHN KERRY: Don’t miss this POLITICO banger on U.S. Climate Envoy John Kerry’s “aggressive courtship” of the oil-baron-cum-COP-chief, whose appointment as head honcho of the climate change talks has raised eyebrows.

That’s a lot of meetings! As my colleagues Zack Colman, Karl Mathiesen and Corbin Hiar report, al-Jaber and Kerry met either in person or virtually at least 22 times since the latter became U.S. President Joe Biden’s special climate envoy in January 2021, according to POLITICO’s review of public statements, internal documents, media reports and diplomatic schedules.

Close partnership: POLITICO spoke with 30 current and former U.S. government officials, European negotiators, climate diplomacy veterans and UAE energy executives, who said Kerry and al-Jaber appear to have struck up a close partnership amid uniquely complicated and tense negotiations in the run-up to COP.

Ties as deep as an oil well: Kerry’s ties to the UAE’s government are deep, Zach, Karl and Corbin write. He visited the country during his first trip as former U.S. President Barack Obama’s secretary of state in 2013, a maiden voyage that his chief of staff at the time, David Wade, said carried symbolic significance for the United States.

Bad optics: When Kerry traveled to last year’s U.N. climate talks in Egypt, he flew on a plane chartered by UAE-owned Masdar, according to a previously unreported LinkedIn post by a former Masdar official that includes a photo of the U.S. envoy sitting on the plane. (A State Department spokesman said that the U.S. had paid for the seat, and Kerry needed to travel on short notice.)

View from Foggy Bottom: Needless to say, the Biden administration hit back at any suggestion that the ties between Kerry and al-Jaber have been unusually close. “Any suggestion that Secretary Kerry’s discussions with Dr. Sultan and the UAE are disproportionate or any different from his many other interlocutors in the climate space is inaccurate,” said a State Department spokesperson. 

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REPORT FROM THE BLUE ZONE

FORECAST: Partly cloudy, highs of 29C/85F, humidity 49 percent.

BUMPER COP CROP: Dubai-doubters be damned, this year’s COP is bigger than ever: Over 100,000 politicians, pundits, policy nerds and PR-types are descending on the Arabian desert to talk climate — much more than the 70,000 or so touted by organizers.

RIP-OFF COP: Raid your hotel breakfast buffet before heading off to the Expo. A black coffee at the media tent cost your Playbook author an eye-watering 20 dirhams (a cool €5/$5.45), and food was selling out by the late afternoon along the main thoroughfare.

Coffee tip: The Australia, U.K. and Brazil pavilions are serving free coffees. Playbook can recommend the Aussies’ skinny latte, though the iced americanos were also proving popular — all made from a gem of a bean from the Kaw Kaw Mountain in Papua New Guinea.

COP GOES VEG: There’s one thing you won’t find much of at the Expo: meat. After months of lobbying by FOOD@COP, a group campaigning for more climate-friendly catering, UAE Climate Change Minister Mariam Almheiri announced two-thirds of the food served at this year’s conference will be plant-based.

Lunch tip: Loaded chaat fries from Prunch, in the plant-based food park. Tamarind chutney, pomegranate and pickled onion. Delish — and only 440 calories, apparently.

HOW THE OTHER HALF LIVE: For those who want a little luxury, check out the Leadership Pavilion, where most of the heads of state hang out. Bathed in soothing shades of cream and gold with designer lighting, it has the vibe of a luxury car dealership. Try out the snazzy Aesop products in the impeccable bathrooms, or sip a glass of fresh strawberry or orange juice, offered to dignitaries as they slide between rooms. 

BURYING THE BREXIT HATCHET: Playbook hopes relations between the U.K. and the EU have thawed, given their pavilions are a stone’s throw away from each other in the Blue Zone.

HARD HAT UPDATE: The UAE’s Dubai Expo is a step-above most city conference centers, offering acres of rooms, inside and out. But last-minute building work was still going on at the outdoor auditorium in the center of the Expo ahead of leaders’ arrival today. Playbook was assured works would be finished imminently. We’ll keep you posted. 

SPOTTED

— Prime Minister of Uganda Robinah Nabbanja, arriving to the opening ceremony in the Ugandan Pavilion in the Blue Zone. 

— At last night’s royal reception in Expo City on the eve of the Business & Philanthropy Climate Forum: King Charles III, Bank of America’s Brian Moynihan, U.S. Climate Envoy John Kerry, Irish leader Leo Varadkar, philanthropist and businessman Mike Bloomberg, British politicians Zac Goldsmith and Nadhim Zahawi, World Bank chief Kristalina Georgieva.

— At Goals House Opening Nightcap: British Foreign Secretary David Cameron, British politician Zac Goldsmith, Freud’s Hannah Pawlby, Grammy nominee and U.N. Goodwill Ambassador Rocky Dawuni, Octopus Energy’s Greg Jackson, Hassan Jameel, Google’s Stuart McLaughlin, BCG’s Graham Ackerman, Gayle Tupaz, C40’s Mark Watts and Zermina Toghey.

WHAT’S HAPPENING TODAY

— Opening of the high-level segment for heads of states and government at 1:30 p.m. in Plenary Hall Al Hairat … followed by delivery of national statements.

— First day of the Business & Philanthropy Climate Forum at 10 a.m. in the Connect Conference Center, Green Zone. Chaired by Badr Jafar, CEO of Crescent Enterprises, more than 1,000 chief execs are expected to attend. Key speakers include Bill Gates, co-chair of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; Brian Moynihan, chair and CEO, Bank of America; International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva; Siddharth Sharma, CEO, Tata Trusts; Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio; Hindou Ibrahim, chair, International Indigenous Peoples Forum on Climate Change. Full agenda here.

— Adaptation Finance Summit for Africa at 3:30 p.m. in Meeting Room 6 in the Blue Zone. Speakers include President of Kenya William Ruto, President of Senegal Macky Sall. Interventions by Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, British Foreign Secretary David Cameron and Bill Gates. 

— “The Climate Crisis is a Health Crisis”; Foundation S and Seed Global Health Event at the WHO Health Pavilion in the Blue Zone from 11:15 a.m. Speakers include WHO Special Envoy for Climate Change and Health Vanessa Kerry; Vanina Laurent-Ledru, director general, Foundation S; Minister of State of Senegal Awa Marie Coll-Seck; Neil Buddy Shah, CEO, Clinton Health Access Initiative.

— “Climate Security Moment: Assuming Joint Leadership,” event organized by the Munich Security Conference, 1:30 p.m. in the Al Wakri Arena, Blue Zone. Speakers include Mia Mottley, prime minister of Barbados; MSC Chair Christoph Heusgen; NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg; Mokgweetsi Masisi, president of Botswana; Icelandic Prime Minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir; Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas. Livestream here.

— Signing of the COP28 Emirates Declaration  on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems and Climate Action at 1.30 p.m. in the Al Walha Theater, Blue Zone. 

— Press conference by EIB President Werner Hoyer, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Bill Gates of Breakthrough Energy, EU Pavilion, Blue Zone, 2.45 p.m.

— “Scaling Green: How to make cleantech big, and fast?” organized by Boston Consulting Group on the Knowledge Hub Stage, Green Zone, 12.

GET IN TOUCH … with any tips, news or party invites at slynch@politico.eu.

THANKS TO: Zia Weise and Karl Mathiesen.

PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT Global Playbook Editor Zoya Sheftalovich.

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