A tale of 2 California speakers

Nov 30, 2023

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With help from Jeremy B. White and Lara Korte.

SPECULATION SEASON: Among California politicos, 2023 is ending much like it began: buzzing with chatter that a former House speaker may soon be heading back to the Golden State for good.

For most the year, the talk fixated on Rep. Nancy Pelosi and whether she’d retire from her San Francisco seat after handing over the House Democratic leadership to New York Rep. Hakeem Jeffries. The guessing game screeched to a halt in September when Pelosi announced she wanted to stick around for at least one more term.

Now, it’s Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s turn to power the rumor mill. He has until Dec. 8 to declare if he’ll seek reelection, after being ousted as speaker in October. As recently as Wednesday, he says he hasn’t yet made the “gut call.”

Kevin McCarthy speaks with reporters on Capitol Hill in Washington.

Kevin McCarthy speaks with reporters on Capitol Hill in Washington, Oct. 24, 2023. | Alex Brandon/AP

McCarthy’s season of speculation could not be more different than Pelosi’s.

Back when Pelosi’s decision was still unknown, she spent much of that time on an apparent valedictory lap. Interest groups jostled to bestow her with honors. The state Democratic convention in May was an outright lovefest, with Pelosi’s image emblazoned on tote bags and posters as a party icon.

“Do you know what emerita means? It means happiness,” she told the convention crowd.

`McCarthy is appearing anything but content. Instead of stepping down from leadership on his own terms, he was toppled by insurgent members of his own caucus. The affable, back-slapping politician is now making headlines for elbowing a fellow Republican in the back – hard. (McCarthy denied he shoved Tennessee Rep. Tim Burchett as he and his detail walked through a Capitol hallway).

It’s under those less-than-ideal circumstances that McCarthy will have to decide if it’s time to cap off his decades-long career.

“If you just got thrown out as speaker, you’d go through different stages, would you not?” McCarthy said Wednesday at a New York Times event.

Meanwhile, the waiting game in Bakersfield is playing out much as it did in San Francisco, with lists of potential successors being bandied about. As many as a dozen names have come up among Central Valley political insiders, although the consensus is that all eyes will turn to state Sen. Shannon Grove and Assemblymember Vince Fong to see their moves if the opportunity arises. Both legislators are strong fundraisers. Fong, who used to work as McCarthy’s district director, has maintained close ties with his former boss while Grove, an ardent social conservative, may be a closer ideological match for the ruby red district.

Two Republicans have filed for the seat already, whether McCarthy runs or not. But most in the political establishment are taking pains not to get out ahead of the former speaker’s decision.

Diane Pearce, a Clovis City Council member and conservative activist, knows her name is among those being mentioned, but she was careful to show that any future aspirations do not include challenging McCarthy if he runs.

“While the former speaker continues to have my full support, it is flattering anyone would have my name in the mix if he chose not to seek reelection,” Pearce said. She added, “My focus remains on serving Clovis and fighting to protect us from the onslaught coming from Sacramento. I’m not in the habit of closing doors though.”

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WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW TODAY

TRANS RIGHTS ON THE BALLOT: The secretary of state’s office has given conservative organizers the OK to collect signatures in support of a sweeping statewide ballot measure that would import red state policies on transgender students into California.

The measure would ban gender-affirming care for minors; prevent transgender women and girls from participating in women’s sports; repeal a law allowing trans students to use bathrooms or locker rooms of their choice; and require schools to notify parents if a student asks to be treated as a gender not matching their school records.

Getting the measure on the ballot in 2024 will be an uphill battle, to say the least. Organizers will need to collect nearly 550,000 signatures by late May. And while they’re working to line up deep-pocketed donors to fund the campaign, they haven’t yet secured any and will start by relying on unpaid, volunteer signature collectors, initiative proponent Jonathan Zachreson told POLITICO.

They’ll also be contending with an unfavorable title: the “Restricts Rights of Transgender Youth” initiative. Zachreson, a Roseville City school board member, said that if the initiative qualifies, his campaign will challenge the name.

The initiative was originally filed as three separate measures, but proponents consolidated them into one to make signature collection cheaper. Combining a wide range of controversial policies into one measure, though, stands to hurt its chances – preventing voters from picking and choosing which tenets they agree with. That is, if it does by some chance go before California’s increasingly progressive electorate next year. — Blake Jones

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ON THE BEATS

GETTING CROWDED: Democrats are steadily lining up for the race to replace Silicon Valley Rep. Anna Eshoo.

Former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo, who was quietly campaigning as early as this weekend, officially filed FEC papers today for CA-16, which covers parts of San Mateo, Santa Cruz and Santa Clara Counties.

He joins Santa Clara Supervisor Joe Simitian and Silicon Valley tech executive Rishi Kumar in the race.

Assemblymember Marc Berman confirmed to us this week that he isn’t running for the seat, saying in a text message that he is "grateful for the outpouring of encouragement from throughout the district," but that "I honestly believe I already have one of the best jobs in public service."

We’re still waiting on a decision from Assemblymember Evan Low, who has not-so-subtly hinted at a run.

He told POLITICO that he has received “an outpouring of calls and texts from across the district urging me to run.”

“Should I decide to run,” he said in a text message, “It’s clear that we will do so with the diverse coalition of supporters and the financial resources necessary to win.” — Lara Korte and Jeremy B. White

SCHOOL’S OUT: We’re less than five days away from the start of rolling strikes at California State University campuses, and there’s little sign school administrators and union negotiators are ready to strike a deal on a new contract for faculty.

The California Faculty Association said in a press release today that its members still plan to hold one-day strikes next week, starting at Cal Poly Pomona on Monday. Walkouts are also planned at campuses in Los Angeles, Sacramento and San Francisco. Both sides confirmed to POLITICO that the union is demanding 12 percent raises this academic year, while the university has offered a 15 percent cumulative salary bump over three years — though 10 percent of that is contingent on planned increases in state funding.

Teamsters Local 2010, which is separately negotiating a contract for electricians, plumbers and other trades workers on CSU campuses, is planning to join CFA on the picket line.

Friday is the last day the sides are required to engage in a state-mandated mediation phase with a third-party labor negotiator, who is expected to release a report detailing the underlying causes of the impasse.

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What We're Reading

CARE COURT: The Newsom administration’s much-anticipated mental health program known as CARE Court will launch Friday in Los Angeles County, enabling social workers, first-responders, family members and some other specifically designated people to refer people to a program that critics warn could lead to involuntary treatment. Seven counties launched the program in recent weeks. (Los Angeles Times)

LOOK, UP IN THE SKY: Due to solar activity, the Northern Lights will be visible farther south than usual and may be visible after midnight in Washington, Oregon and, just maybe, in parts of Northern California. (San Francisco Chronicle)

JOIN WOMEN RULE ON 12/12: For centuries, women were left out of the rooms that shaped policy, built companies and led countries. Now, society needs the creativity and entrepreneurship of women more than ever. How can we make sure that women are given the space and opportunity to shape the world’s future for the better? Join POLITICO's Women Rule on Dec. 12 for Leading with Purpose: How Women Are Reinventing the World to explore this and more. REGISTER HERE.

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