| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Eugene Daniels and Rachael Bade | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | BREAKING OVERNIGHT — “US military Osprey aircraft with 6 aboard crashes off southern Japan, at least 1 dead,” by AP’s Mari Yamaguchi in Tokyo GRIM ACCOUNTING — “U.S. Suicides Reached a Record High Last Year,” by WSJ’s Julie Wernau: “Nearly 50,000 people in the U.S. lost their lives to suicide in 2022, according to a provisional tally from the National Center for Health Statistics. The agency said the final count would likely be higher. The suicide rate of 14.3 deaths per 100,000 people reached its highest level since 1941.”
|  A truck passes through a section of border fence in Brownsville, Texas, Nov. 8, 2023. | Valerie Gonzalez/AP | RUN FOR THE BORDER — The Senate border security talks have reached a crucial stage for any potential bipartisan deal: the left and the right both hate it. Tougher border security is the GOP’s price to unlock president Biden’s $106 billion supplemental funding request for aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, and the negotiations are now centered around three big issues:
- Asylum standards: When migrants apply for asylum, they are screened to determine whether they have “credible fear” they will be persecuted or tortured if they’re returned home. Republicans want a higher standard, which would result in more migrants being removed.
- Safe third countries: There are discussions about expanding the number of countries where asylum seekers would be required to seek protection first if they pass through on the way to the U.S. border. Canada, for instance, is designated as a “safe third country,” while Mexico isn’t.
- Parole authority: Presidents have the authority to temporarily admit people to the U.S. for humanitarian or other reasons. For instance, Biden has used these “parole” powers to allow in thousands of people from Afghanistan, Ukraine, Venezuela, Cuba and elsewhere; Republicans want to vastly curtail this authority.
In terms of the politics of these three issues, Democrats seem resigned to accepting a revised asylum threshold, deeply hostile to meddling with parole authority and somewhere in the middle on safe third countries. But progressive activists hate all of this. For years, the potential bargain the left has been willing to accept is one in which Republicans get tougher border policies and Democrats get progressive immigration measures — a path to citizenship for Dreamers, at the very least. But the current negotiations have changed the equation: Republicans get border security and Democrats get aid to Ukraine. Early in the talks, we’re told, Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.) tried to add in citizenship for Dreamers, and Republicans shot it down. For immigration reform advocates, it means their longtime priorities have been traded away and replaced with Biden’s foreign aid priorities. And they are starting to step up pressure on Senate Democrats and the White House. “These proposals do nothing to secure our border or live up to the will of the American electorate to see both humane, orderly processes at the border and paths to legal status for long-settled immigrants in the U.S.,” said Immigration Hub’s KERRI TALBOT in a statement yesterday. Talbot worked for Senate Democratic leaders in 2013, the last time Congress tried to pass comprehensive immigration reform, and as executive director of Immigration Hub, she now advises progressive immigration organizations on strategy. Her advice is to vote no: “No Democrat should accept these ransom demands that would harm immigrants.” The left has two other gripes about the process: (1) that Biden is so hungry for an immigration deal that he is willing to give away too much, and (2) that the Senate negotiators are not close to the activists. Sen. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) used to be the go-to Democrat on the issue, but he’s a bit sidelined these days. Unlike the Gang of Eight that negotiated a big Senate immigration bill in 2013, this current group of six Senate negotiators doesn’t include any Latinos. “It’s the Gang of White,” one activist groaned. The right, meanwhile, is hardly united itself on the emerging Senate deal. House Republicans are still pushing H.R. 2, a more wide-ranging and restrictive bill that Democrats would never accept. In a sign of how the base will react to any potential deal, Heritage Action for America came out against the Senate talks yesterday and demanded that Republicans commit to H.R. 2 instead. Speaker MIKE JOHNSON will be attending the Senate GOP lunch today, where the border talks are sure to come up, so we may get an indication of how close or far apart House and Senate Republicans are. Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER has tried to push the talks along by setting a deadline of next week for a vote on the Biden aid package. But if it falls apart, all eyes will be on Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL, who both supports aid to Ukraine and is pushing hard to tie the aid to border security. There is no obvious Plan B floating around, so Biden and McConnell, for very different reasons, are highly incentivized to figure this one out — and they are being cheered on by in-cycle Senate Democrats, who are starting to see the political upside of a deal: Sens. JON TESTER (D-Mont.), TAMMY BALDWIN (D-Wis.), and SHERROD BROWN (D-Ohio) all told POLITICO yesterday they were open to asylum policy changes. “They are motivated not just by concern for America’s embattled allies,” Jennifer Haberkorn and Burgess Everett write. “They also believe changes are needed to help a migration crisis that is growing more dire and to potentially dull the political sting of border politics in battleground states before the 2024 elections.” Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line with your nickname for the gang of senators negotiating the supplemental deal: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from Google: HomeTeam is an AI-powered training tool designed to help veterans navigate mental health conversations with their peers. Last year, Google.org gave a $1.5 million grant and deployed nine Google.org Fellows to support ReflexAI, a social enterprise that uses AI-powered tools to help emergency response, public safety, and healthcare organizations train counselors to better serve people in crisis. Together, they built HomeTeam. Learn more. | | | BIDEN VS. BOEBERT — JOE BIDEN is headed today to Pueblo, Colo., location of the world’s largest wind turbine tower manufacturing plant — and the home district of GOP Rep. LAUREN BOEBERT, a lawmaker that the White House sees as one of their most useful foils. It’s not the first time Biden has visited a Republican-held district to tout a big project that a hometown politico opposed — the CS Wind factory in Pueblo is expected to host a total of 850 new jobs by 2026 due to the Inflation Reduction Act — but the White House appears to be taking special delight in taking on the headline-grabbing Boebert, who is emblematic of the kind of “MAGA Republican” that Democratic honchos want to draw a contrast with. “We want every American to know that Bidenomics is working for them — creating jobs and opportunities, especially in communities that have been left behind,” a White House official told Playbook last night. “And it’s important for Americans to know that if Republicans in Congress — including self-identified MAGA Republican Representative Lauren Boebert — want to undermine their communities by taking those investments and opportunities away.” Expect more of these trips over the coming year as the administration and Biden campaign look for new ways to make 2024 about the alternative, not the almighty. And in case you are wondering, no, Boebert is not invited to today’s event. “Why would we?” the official said. “She has voted against creating these jobs multiple times — first voting against the Inflation Reduction Act, then to repeal the provisions spurring these investments.”
| | | | A message from Google:   Built with veterans, for veterans, HomeTeam uses AI to help vets spot warning signs for mental health crises and train for critical conversations about mental health with their peers. Learn more. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The House will meet at 10 a.m., and at noon will take up a bill that would bar the use of federal money to house undocumented immigrants on federal land, with votes expected at 1:30 p.m. The Budget Committee will meet at 10 a.m. to delve into the prospect of a fiscal/debt commission. CFPB Director ROHIT CHOPRA will testify before the Financial Services Committee at 10 a.m. The Senate will meet at 10 a.m. and take up judicial nominations throughout the day. 3 things to watch … - Is today GEORGE SANTOS’ last day as a member of Congress? It’s certainly possible: Multiple lawmakers moved yesterday to call up measures expelling the New York Republican, starting a two-day legislative clock. House GOP aides say the precise timing is unclear, but leaders might see no reason to wait: Santos made perfectly clear in comments on the floor and to reporters yesterday that he won’t be going quietly.
- It’s crunch time for the annual National Defense Authorization Act ahead of a year-end deadline, with bicameral conference committee holding their traditional “pass the gavel” meeting today to kick off final negotiations. Among the issues needing to be hashed out are Pentagon policies on diversity, abortion-related travel and transgender health care, as well as a spat over cryptocurrency legislation. Separately, Sen. JOSH HAWLEY (R-Mo.) is threatening to hold up the bill if it doesn’t include compensation for radiation victims.
- Schumer is set to deliver an address on the Senate floor later this morning on antisemitism, and he offers a preview in a just-posted NYT op-ed: “Today, too many Americans are exploiting arguments against Israel and leaping toward a virulent antisemitism. The normalization and intensifying of this rise in hate is the danger many Jewish people fear most.”
At the White House Biden will head to Pueblo, Colo., to tour CS Wind and deliver remarks about his clean energy agenda in the afternoon, before returning to the White House. VP KAMALA HARRIS will travel to New York to take part in the NYT DealBook Summit. After returning to D.C., she’ll host a reception in the evening for Congressional Hispanic Caucus members.
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President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the release of hostages from Gaza, in Nantucket, Massachusetts, on Nov. 26, 2023. | Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images | BIDEN IN WARTIME — New reporting out this morning from NBC’s Carol Lee and Courtney Kube offers an illuminating window into the president’s perspective over the past six weeks. Biden felt the initial praise he got for strongly supporting Israel vindicated his belief that the U.S. needs to hug Israel publicly to have influence over its behavior. And even as the staggering Palestinian death toll has shifted the global narrative, “Biden’s confidence in his strategy has not wavered … if anything it’s hardened.” That stance remains despite deeply personal rifts over the war within the White House, NYT’s Erica Green reports, and even at the CIA, where a top official’s pro-Palestine post on Facebook has kicked up a controversy at the agency, as FT’s Demetri Sevastopulo and Felicia Schwartz scooped. The truce in Israel and Gaza falls short of the ceasefire that young progressives have demanded that Democrats advocate, as activists struggle to turn the tide among members of Congress, Nick Wu and Ursula Perano report. Progressives’ biggest impact so far domestically has been “driving a wedge within the Democratic Party.” In a pair of votes yesterday in the House, resolutions calling on Hamas to release hostages and affirming Israel’s right to exist passed with unanimous or near-unanimous margins. Elsewhere on the Hill: Senators watched the brutal footage of the Oct. 7 attack, many of them leaving shaken, per NBC. And the House Education and the Workforce Committee announced it’ll haul in the presidents of Harvard, Penn and MIT to address campus antisemitism next week. On the ground: The first of three U.S. military flights carrying humanitarian assistance for Gaza landed in Egypt yesterday, per CBS. USAID said it carried 54,000 pounds of food and medical aid. Dozens more hostages held by Hamas and Palestinian prisoners in Israel were freed yesterday as negotiations continued about a longer pause in the war. SUBBING IN — “Kamala Harris Will Attend the COP28 Climate Summit in Dubai,” by Bloomberg’s Jennifer Dlouhy and John Harney CONGRESS IN THE END ZONE? — Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE (R-Ala.) yesterday for the first time indicated to Senate Republicans that he’ll be willing to end the brouhaha over his military nominations blockade — but he didn’t specify how, per Punchbowl’s Andrew Desiderio. “I got y’all into this mess,” Tuberville told them. “I’m gonna get you out.” SHOCKER — Democrats lost a rare nomination procedural vote on the floor as Sens. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) and BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) joined with Republicans to tank JOSÉ JAVIER RODRÍGUEZ as an assistant Labor secretary, at least for now, per Burgess Everett. ONE TO WATCH — “Bipartisan consensus elusive on government retirees’ benefits,” by Roll Call’s Laura Weiss: “There are renewed signs of life for congressional efforts to overhaul a pair of much-maligned Social Security policies that cut some public workers’ retirement benefits. But in a year of tumult in the House, there’s still a long way to go.” ALL POLITICS WHAT A RED WAVE COULD LOOK LIKE — “Republicans won a historic urban upset last week. Can they repeat it?” by Semafor’s Dave Weigel: “[I]n Charleston, and in the other places where Republicans won upsets this year, they broke [the Democratic anti-DONALD TRUMP] coalition. They ran candidates whom Democrats struggled to link to the far right, or to unpopular limits on abortion … They reached out to Republican voters who always show up for presidential elections but usually skip local races. And they channeled urban voters’ frustrations about high housing prices, homelessness, and crime.” LIZ CHENEY UNCORKED — The former congresswoman’s new book, “Oath and Honor,” excoriates her past House GOP colleagues as cowardly Trump sycophants, CNN’s Jamie Gangel, Jeremy Herb and Elizabeth Stuart scooped. Notably, she recounts KEVIN McCARTHY saying that Trump acknowledged his loss shortly after the election. Coming in for particular opprobrium: McCarthy (“craven”), now-Speaker MIKE JOHNSON (“especially susceptible to flattery from Trump”) and Ohio Rep. JIM JORDAN (“didn’t seem to think the rules mattered” for challenging the 2020 election). DON’T OPEN THIS AT WORK — “In the world of sexual fetishes, crossing the political aisle is a kink,” by WaPo’s Hallie Lieberman
| | | | A message from Google: Every day, 17 veterans die by suicide. Research shows that 92% of veterans want to help another veteran experiencing a mental health challenge, but only 25% feel prepared to do so. A team of nine Google.org Fellows — made up of veterans, veteran family members, and technologists — worked pro bono with Google.org grantee ReflexAI to build HomeTeam, a tool that uses educational modules and AI chat simulations to give veterans the opportunity to practice lifelike conversations about mental health in a low-risk, confidential setting.
Read Fellow Chris Keller’s first-hand account of Google’s AI collaboration with ReflexAI. | | | 2024 WATCH
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Nikki Haley arrives at the Family Leader's Thanksgiving Family Forum, Nov. 17, 2023, in Des Moines, Iowa. | Charlie Neibergall/AP | OPPORTUNITIES AND OBSTACLES — NIKKI HALEY’s success in landing the backing of Americans for Prosperity Action and the political network led by CHARLES KOCH could be “the most important endorsement” yet in the primary, Axios’ Zachary Basu writes. Their support could specifically shore up Haley’s grassroots/ground operations, which have lagged those of her top competitors. As Haley surges, she drew a big crowd last night in Derry, N.H., where former Sen. GORDON HUMPHREY (R-N.H.) told our colleague Lisa Kashinsky that he’s “leaning” toward her. But with greater visibility comes greater vulnerability. NBC’s Jonathan Allen, Allan Smith and Dasha Burns report that Haley’s campaign could crash and burn in her home state of South Carolina if she can’t snuff out Trump there — and so far, they find, she hasn’t convinced the MAGA base. Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS is increasingly training his attack ads on her, including one from the new Fight Right PAC that lands a whopping four Pinocchios from the WaPo fact-checker. And though Democrats acknowledge she might be a tough opponent for Biden, they’d plan to link her relentlessly to Trump in a general election, The Messenger’s Dan Merica and Amie Parnes report.
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Rep. Dean Phillips speaks during a campaign stop, Oct. 31, 2023, in Manchester, N.H. | Charles Krupa/AP | THE DEAN SCREAM — What Minnesota moderate? Democratic Rep. DEAN PHILLIPS has lately staked out some policy terrain to the left of Biden in the presidential primary, pressuring the incumbent and highlighting his vulnerabilities, Holly Otterbein, Elena Schneider and Myah Ward report from Charleston, S.C. Phillips has called for legalizing marijuana, seriously criticized Israel, pushed for a $15 minimum wage and hired JEFF WEAVER. And coming soon, Phillips will put out a “pro-worker” economic platform, whose planks include universal health care and paid family leave. Phillips claims his appeals to the party’s younger, progressive base are simply about focusing on “the best policy.” Not all progressives take him seriously. “While Biden aides have expressed indifference to Phillips’ bid, it’s clear his allies are taking the primary challenge seriously.” More top reads:
- CHRIS CHRISTIE said for the first time yesterday that he would not sign a national six-week ban on abortion, per CNN.
- BLAKE HARRIS, who previously was a top political adviser to Sen. TIM SCOTT’s (R-S.C.) presidential campaign, has landed as the head of the new pro-DeSantis Fight Right, Natalie Allison scooped.
- Home Depot megadonor BERNIE MARCUS told Reuters’ Alexandra Ulmer that a criminal Trump conviction wouldn’t end his support for Trump, though he won’t be “one of his big givers.”
MEDIAWATCH BRUTAL — At WaPo, 120 employees have taken recent buyouts, CEO PATTY STONESIFER told staff. They’re still looking for 120 more. TRUMP CARDS THE DREAM NEVER DIES — “In D.C. 2020 election case, Trump demands information on U.S. government,” by WaPo’s Spencer Hsu and Rachel Weiner: It’s “the latest sign that the former president and 2024 Republican front-runner will fight charges in D.C. of election obstruction by relying on his unfounded allegation that President Biden’s victory was ‘stolen’ and other baseless conspiratorial claims.” THE CIVIL FRAUD TRIAL — Trump’s defense in the business fraud case against his real estate empire was bolstered by a Deutsche Bank leader, who said yesterday that a loan to him was “not entirely unusual,” per Bloomberg. But Judge ARTHUR ENGORON separately “appeared to shoot down one of the defense’s main remaining arguments,” ABC reports. VALLEY TALK X MARKS THE SPOT — “Biden campaign: Twitter, er X, is ‘an increasingly hostile place,’” by Eugene: “They say they no longer see the platform as a place where they can actually build useful voter relations or even engage in level political discourse. … But even as they trash the site, they aren’t ready to quit it either.”
| | | | GET A BACKSTAGE PASS TO COP28 WITH GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Get insider access to the conference that sets the tone of the global climate agenda with POLITICO's Global Playbook newsletter. Authored by Suzanne Lynch, Global Playbook delivers exclusive, daily insights and comprehensive coverage that will keep you informed about the most crucial climate summit of the year. Dive deep into the critical discussions and developments at COP28 from Nov. 30 to Dec. 12. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Martin O’Malley made it out of the Senate Finance Committee. Ryan Fournier was charged with assault. Greg Landsman is “mildly obsessed” with boxing and has a controversial Taylor Swift take. Scott Armey, son of Dick Armey, is running for Congress. James Taylor will host a concert fundraiser for Joe Biden. REMEMBERING ROSALYNN CARTER — America’s political royalty bade the former first lady farewell at a memorial service yesterday in Georgia, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Jeremy Redmon, Ernie Suggs and Adrianne Murchison report. Her family members paid tribute to her, as did Judy Woodruff, Garth Brooks and Trisha Yearwood, while the mourners included Jimmy Carter, Joe and Jill Biden, Bill and Hillary Clinton, Melania Trump, Michelle Obama, Laura Bush and Brian Kemp. Read NYT’s Vanessa Friedman on the gathering of first ladies IN MEMORIAM — Selena Shilad, executive director of the Alliance for Aviation Across America, died Friday at 45 after a short illness. The longtime aviation advocate had been with the organization since 2007 and previously worked on multiple political campaigns and the Hill. Read more FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Several top Democratic Latino operatives and former Biden officials are launching Conexión, a new political and public affairs consulting group. Colin Rogero, Adrian Saenz, Pili Tobar and Marsha Espinosa are all partners at Conexión; they collectively have experience in the Biden and Obama White Houses, various political campaigns and the Hill. ’TIS THE SEASON — The National Christmas Tree was no match yesterday for Washington winds, which toppled the spruce for a few hours. SPOTTED: Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) performing at Blues Alley yesterday evening. OUT AND ABOUT — The National Press Club hosted its Fourth Estate Award gala last night, honoring NBC’s Kristen Welker with its top honor, as well as awards for WSJ’s Evan Gershkovich, Iranian journalists Niloofar Hamedi and Elaheh Mohammadi, and Reuters’ Kat Stafford. Ken Strickland and Rebecca Blumenstein delivered remarks honoring Welker, who told the crowd that “we must have the courage to hold a mirror up to ourselves as a society — and to always ask the hard questions about who we are and how we got to this moment.” SPOTTED: Julie and Harvey Welker, Rashida Jones, Carrie Budoff Brown, Chloe Arensberg, David Rohde, Andrea Mitchell, Peter Alexander and Carol Lee. — SPOTTED at the Women’s White Collar Defense Association gala at the Conrad Hotel last night, honoring Beryl Howell and Lisa Monaco (read more from Josh Gerstein): Karen Popp, Sally Yates, Kathy Ruemmler, Hilary Hurd, Wendy Wysong, Kyle Freeny, Jeannie Rhee, Cindy Randall, Rod Rosenstein, Roscoe Howard, Adam Hickey, Justin Shur and Andrew Weissmann. — Boundary Stone Partners celebrated their 10-year anniversary at The Atlantis on Monday night with a show from White Ford Bronco. SPOTTED: Reps. Sean Casten (D-Ill.) and Gabe Amo (D-R.I.), Amit Ronen, Caroline Grey, Tim Puko, Adam Wollner, Andrea Purse, Jen Deci, Hal Connolly, Madeline Nykaza, Jordan Downs, Andrew Fishbein, Jana Barresi, Spencer Nelson, Andrew Wills, Sydney Bopp, Christine Turner and Mike O’Neil. TRANSITIONS — Janelle Jones is joining the Washington Center for Equitable Growth as VP of policy and advocacy. She most recently was chief economist and policy director at the Service Employees International Union, and is a Labor Department alum. … Matthew Milios will be VP for comms at The Pew Charitable Trusts. He most recently led Cause for Content. … … Joe MacFarlane is now legislative director for Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.). He previously was legislative assistant for Rep. Rick Crawford (R-Ark.), and is a Jackie Walorski alum. … Melanie Harris is now senior director at Invariant. She previously was U.K. digital policy lead for Amazon Web Services. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel … Emily Lenzner … L.A. Times’ Mark Barabak … Margaret Carlson … Hayley Dierker of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee … Matt Hall … CNN’s Pamela Brown … Ceara Flake … Liz Schrayer of the U.S. Global Leadership Coalition and Schrayer & Associates … Janet Napolitano … Madeline Ryan … Chris Frates of Storyline … Liza Acevedo of the White House … Juri Jacoby … Sarah Venuto … Public Citizen’s Robert Weissman … Graves Spindler of Bully Pulpit Interactive … Ryan Leavitt … Alexandra Ulmer … Stacy Rich … Joe Sternlieb … former Rep. Jean Schmidt (R-Ohio) … Atlantic Council’s Shalom Lipner … Sydelle Moore … Abby Duggan of Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D-Ohio) office … Trent Spiner … Brian Reisinger of Platform Communications Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. 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