How to make a grand bargain on the border

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POLITICO Playbook

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DRIVING THE DAY

NEW JMART — Jonathan Martin’s latest column, hot off the presses: “The Stop Trump Effort Has Been Abysmal: A vast array of GOP power brokers detest and disdain the former president. So why are they keeping so quiet?”

BEHIND THAT VIRAL CONFRONTATION — “GOP lawmaker: Ousted aides targeted my daughter for OnlyFans account,” by Olivia Beavers: “Rep. BRANDON WILLIAMS (R-N.Y.) told POLITICO that his former chief of staff and former legislative director attempted to retaliate against him using his 27-year old daughter’s account on OnlyFans … According to Williams, the two former staffers, MICHAEL GORDON and RYAN SWEENEY, threatened to expose his daughter after Williams fired them for alleged misconduct.” Gordon and Sweeney say Williams’ allegations are outright false.

Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) speaks with reporters at the U.S. Capitol Dec. 4, 2023.

Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) speaks with reporters at the U.S. Capitol Dec. 4, 2023. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

THE PLAYBOOK INTERVIEW: JAMES LANKFORD We started yesterday in the office of Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) as he was prepping to deliver Democrats a counterproposal on border security policy later in the day. The Baptist minister at the center of the border talks called us into the main hallway of his office in Hart, held up a bright gold baseball bat, and made a mob joke.

There was no word on whether he brought the bat with him to KYRSTEN SINEMA’s Capitol hideaway, where he met with the Arizona independent and CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.). But everyone agreed afterwards the border talks were officially back on and would continue through the weekend. (Lankford maintains they were never off.)

There’s no official response from Democrats about Lankford’s new proposal. But we quickly heard from a Dem source briefed on the plan who was unhappy.

“The Lankford counteroffer is extremely similar to the other Republican offers already in the discussion they’ve been having so far,” the source said. “Not a serious effort.” The source added, “it still has all the extreme proposals like expulsion at the border with no asylum access. And fast track deportations in the interior.”

Meanwhile, Jennifer Haberkorn, Burgess Everett and Jonathan Lemire report that “Republicans and a handful of Democrats” are calling for President Biden to get involved in the talks. (More from Lankford on that below.)

Reuters has a single-sourced piece saying the administration “is considering getting behind new restrictions on who can seek asylum and an expanded deportation process.”

The WSJ reports the Biden administration is open to other GOP asylum proposals as well — including those “deeply unpopular with Democrats” and which echo policies championed by DONALD TRUMP: “Among those are a change to asylum law that would tighten the initial screening standard migrants must clear to proceed with a full asylum case. They have also signaled openness to designating countries as ‘safe third countries’ where asylum seekers at the border could be sent, and expanding rapid deportations to be used nationwide rather than just at the border. The White House also now favors expanding immigration detention…”

All of this is in line with the vibes emanating from the West Wing for weeks now. Biden is hungry for a deal for obvious political reasons, has repeatedly said “we need to fix the broken border system,” and made it clear this week he meant through “significant” policy changes, not just by spending more money.

Though it’s all been anonymous, administration officials have signaled they’re amenable to compromise on core GOP proposals. The one issue where the GOP and administration still seem far apart is over curtailing the president’s parole authority.

Given the behind-the-scenes movement, perhaps it shouldn’t have been surprising when Lankford put away the bat, grabbed a tall glass of iced skim milk and took us through his rather optimistic case for why he thinks he can land a deal.

You can listen to the full conversation with Lankford on this week’s episode of Playbook Deep Dive. What follows are some key excerpts.

A quote from Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) is pictured.

 

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— Lankford on the coalition he’s trying to build in the Senate:

“This is going to end up being a 30 [Democrats] and 30 [Republicans bill]. It just is. My target is to get closer to 70 votes on this. I think it's going to be equally divided. I really do. We're going to have folks on my side that are going to say, ‘Not enough. There are a few loopholes that are still left. This is not enough. We can't do it.’ We're going to have folks on the other side that are gonna say, ‘Draconian, non-compassionate.’ …

“I'm not just losing votes on immigration on this, and how we're going to handle border security; I'm losing votes on some of the other issues [Ukraine and Israel] as well. … We're going to have to get to a point where an equal number that can look at it and say, ‘I can live with that.’”

— On whether failure is an option:

“No, it's not. … We can have differences of agreement on how we do the funding for Ukraine, but allowing [Russian President VLADIMIR] PUTIN to be able to roll over Europe — we've seen that movie in the 20th century twice. We know what that looks like.”

— On how he viewed Biden’s comments that he was “willing to make significant compromises on the border” and that Lankford is a “decent guy”:

“I interpret it as, ‘Let's keep working till we get this done.’”

— On what Republicans need to understand: 

“We've got to be able to figure out what we can actually swallow. We're not going to get everything in border security we want to be able to get. I understand that full well. We're not going to get H.R. 2. … I'm not going to get 20 or 30 Democrats in the Senate to vote for what they couldn't get one on in the House. And certainly a Democrat president's not going to sign that.”

— On whether he has a commitment from Speaker MIKE JOHNSON to put any Senate deal on the House floor:

“No, I do not. For good reason. I mean, he's not sure what that deal would be on it. And if you're in the House, you know your real enemy is the Senate at any point, regardless of party. … I don't think he would make that deal.”

— On increasing the number of “designated third countries,” places that if migrants pass through on the way to the U.S. make them ineligible for asylum here, a policy change that Democrats say is a backdoor way to halt asylum:

“If it sounds anything like what President Trump ever did, it's evil. That's really what it is: ‘You know what? Trump did that, and so it's terrible. We're not going to do that.’ And I say to them, ‘President Biden has done that as well.’...

“We have thousands of people coming from Uzbekistan. We had 45,000 people from India last year. How many flights did they have to take through how many safe countries to be able to get to Mexico to then pay a cartel to cross the border to be able to come in and then declare, ‘I want asylum here.’ That's not asylum; that’s trying to be able to circumvent all of our legal pathways on that.”

Happy Friday. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line with your supplemental endgame predictions: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

WAKE UP, READ PLAYBOOK — We have an exciting update for Playbook readers: Starting Dec. 18, all Playbook subscribers will also receive Playbook PM every Monday through Friday. As a member of the Playbook community, you will get a double dose of scoops, storylines and analysis every weekday as we enter a newsy election year. No need to take action: You will receive your first PM edition on the 18th if you aren’t subscribed already. Thank you for being a part of the Playbook community.

IT’S THAT TIME OF YEAR — “Naughty, Nice, Under Investigation: A Gift Guide for DC’s Most Famous Politicians,” by Catherine Kim and Calder McHugh in POLITICO Magazine

 

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WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

The House and the Senate are out.

3 things to watch …

  1. While border negotiations aim to assuage problems on the right, another proposed amendment to the Biden supplemental is aimed at anxieties on the left. A proposal led by Sen. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D-Md.) and backed by some of the Senate’s most prominent liberals would require any exported offensive weapons to be used “in accordance with U.S. law, international humanitarian law and the law of armed conflict.” Not supporting the amendment as of yet: Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.), who is opposing the entire package over concerns with Israel’s military campaign in Gaza.
  2. The National Defense Authorization Act is on track to pass the Senate sometime next week after a 82-15 procedural vote. The more interesting story is going to be on the House side, where conservative hard-liners are gearing up for a fight over the annual Pentagon policy bill after negotiators dropped anti-abortion amendments and added a stopgap extension of a controversial surveillance program. “The watered-down #NDAA should NOT be passed by the @HouseGOP,” Rep. CHIP ROY (R-Texas) posted.
  3. Speaking of that controversial surveillance program, Speaker Johnson said yesterday, stopgap or not, he plans to bring a long-term reauthorization of said program, known as Section 702, up for a vote next week. The plan, he said, is to sort out competing measures from the Judiciary and Intel committees using “a special rule that provides members a fair opportunity to vote in favor of their preferred measure.” (Consult with your local House procedure nerd about the glory that is the “queen of the Hill” rule.)

At the White House

President JOE BIDEN will travel to Las Vegas, where he’ll speak about his infrastructure agenda at Carpenter International Training Center at 5:45 p.m. Eastern time (more from AP). Then he’ll head to Santa Monica, California, for a campaign reception in the evening.

VP KAMALA HARRIS will swear in EDGARD KAGAN as U.S. ambassador to Malaysia at 1:30 p.m. She and second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF will host a holiday reception at 5:30 p.m.

 

SUBSCRIBE TO CALIFORNIA CLIMATE: Climate change isn’t just about the weather. It's also about how we do business and create new policies, especially in California. So we have something cool for you: A brand-new California Climate newsletter. It's not just climate or science chat, it's your daily cheat sheet to understanding how the legislative landscape around climate change is shaking up industries across the Golden State. Subscribe now to California Climate to keep up with the changes.

 
 
PLAYBOOK READS

JUDICIARY SQUARE

Hunter Biden walks behind a sidewalk divider.

WILMINGTON, DELAWARE - JULY 26: Hunter Biden, son of U.S. President Joe Biden, departs the J. Caleb Boggs Federal Building and United States Courthouse on July 26, 2023 in Wilmington, Delaware. Biden pleaded not guilty to two misdemeanor tax charges in a deal with prosecutors to avoid prosecution on an additional gun charge. However, the federal judge overseeing the case unexpectedly delayed Biden's plea deal and deferred her decision until more information is put forth by both the prosecution and the defense. | Mark Makela/Getty Images

HUNTER GATHERING — HUNTER BIDEN was slapped with new federal criminal charges last night, CNN’s Evan Perez, Paula Reid, Marshall Cohen, Hannah Rabinowitz and Holmes Lybrand scooped. The nine tax-related counts in California came from special counsel DAVID WEISS, the latest aggressive piece of legal peril to hit the president’s son since his plea deal collapsed this summer. They stem from the Justice Department’s extensive investigation into Hunter Biden’s business abroad, including failure to pay taxes and false/fraudulent tax return. He has separately pleaded not guilty to gun-related criminal charges; his lawyers have maintained his innocence and called his prosecutions politically influenced.

In the 56-page indictment, prosecutors allege misconduct related to Hunter Biden’s debaucherous behavior — some of which they say came after he got sober. The filing includes striking lines like this, about a $1,500 Venmo payment to an exotic dancer for artwork: “The exotic dancer had not sold him any artwork.”

2024 WATCH

UP FOR DEBATE — After CNN announced two new GOP presidential primary debates early next year, ABC followed up hours later with plans for a Jan. 18 debate along with WMUR-TV at Saint Anselm College in New Hampshire. (Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS is in.) But there’s some confusion afoot: That’s also where CNN said it will hold its debate Jan. 21, and the college tells AP’s Meg Kinnard they weren’t aware of any plans for the CNN debate — some observers had been expecting CNN to announce only an Iowa debate.

We’re told by a person familiar with behind-the-scenes discussions that the messiness is causing some consternation because candidates don’t want to be swamped with debates during the busy Iowa-New Hampshire voting corridor. The deluge comes as the RNC is expected to vote today to allow candidates to participate in unsanctioned debates, opening the door for events like these — and a possible Wild West pileup, as media companies partner with local parties instead of the RNC.

THE DEAN SCREAM — Rep. DEAN PHILLIPS (D-Minn.) is filing official challenges to moves by Florida, North Carolina and Tennessee Democrats to keep all Biden opponents off the presidential primary ballot, Semafor’s Dave Weigel scooped.

NOT A GREAT SIGN — “DeSantis Super PAC Cancels Donor Event Citing Waning Interest,” by Bloomberg’s Nancy Cook

TRUMP CARDS

Former U.S. President Donald Trump departs for lunch and speaks to the media.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump departs for lunch and speaks to the media during his trial in New York State Supreme Court on Dec. 7, 2023, in New York City. | David Dee Delgado/Getty Images

STEP ONE TOWARD SCOTUS — Trump’s lawyers wrote yesterday that they’ll appeal Judge TANYA CHUTKAN’s ruling that he can be criminally prosecuted, setting in motion a process that’s likely to make it to the Supreme Court, AP’s Alanna Durkin Richer and Eric Tucker report. As we wrote earlier this week, how — and how quickly — the Supreme Court rules on this and other Trump questions could have a massive impact on his legal future and the 2024 campaign.

If he fails to stave off the trial, it will tee up the unprecedented overlay of a criminal trial with the GOP presidential frontrunner’s primary election dates, write NYT’s Alan Feuer, Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan. They report that Trump’s team is tentatively readying for a trial in spring or summer.

 

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CONGRESS

TRAGEDY IN NORTH DAKOTA — “Son of US Sen. Cramer charged in police chase crash that killed Mercer County deputy,” by The Bismarck Tribune’s Brad Nygaard: “IAN CRAMER, 42, of Bismarck, faces felony criminal charges that together carry a maximum sentence of 25 years in prison. KEVIN CRAMER said his son was having mental health issues at the time of the incident.”

GERRYMANDERING CASUALTY — After North Carolina Republicans redrew her district to ensure they’d flip her seat, Democratic Rep. KATHY MANNING announced yesterday she won’t run for reelection.

NOT OUT OF THE SPOTLIGHT YET — “Kevin McCarthy uses PAC to lavish cash on high-end resorts, private jets and fine dining,” by the L.A. Times’ Paul Pringle and Adam Elmahrek: “From 2012 through last June, [KEVIN] McCARTHY’s PAC shelled out more than $1 million on hotels, private air travel and eateries, the FEC records show. That’s more than double the combined total spent by the leadership PACs of the seven other lawmakers who’ve held the top House and Senate positions for their parties during all or part of that period.”

MORE POLITICS 

RED-LIGHT REDISTRICT — Georgia Republicans officially passed new congressional boundaries yesterday that aim to preserve their partisan advantage despite a judge’s mandate to add a new majority-Black district, per The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Mark Niesse and Maya Prabhu.

WHAT JON TESTER IS WATCHING — Advocacy groups are working to put an abortion measure on the Montana ballot next year, which could enshrine rights in the state constitution and give a turnout boost to the Democratic senator’s reelection bid, Axios’ Alex Thompson and Stef Kight report.

FLORIDA MEN — Florida GOP Chair CHRISTIAN ZIEGLER is refusing widespread entreaties to resign amid a rape investigation, citing Trump’s silence on the matter “as an indicator of tacit support,” The Messenger’s Marc Caputo reports.

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

A boy lights a Hanukkah candle.

A boy lights a Hanukkah candle as relatives and friends of hostages held in the Gaza Strip by the Hamas militant group call for their release during the Jewish holiday of Hanukkah in the Hostages Square at the Museum of Art in Tel Aviv, Israel, Thursday, Dec. 7, 2023. | Ariel Schalit/AP

MIDDLE EAST FALLOUT — As Israel keeps pummeling southern Gaza, with perhaps more than 17,000 people reported dead, more than 130 hostages remain held by Hamas — and U.S. officials are increasingly pessimistic about getting them freed soon, Erin Banco scooped. A deal for another pause in fighting is nowhere close, and growing logistical obstacles will hamper the release of hostages. Despite that pessimism, the families of Americans being held are pleading with the Biden administration to “get creative,” CNN’s MJ Lee reports.

Rep. ELISE STEFANIK (R-N.Y.), who the NYT writes is enjoying a viral moment after confronting the presidents of Harvard, Penn and MIT for their comments about antisemitism and failure to condemn calls for genocide strongly enough, penned a WSJ op-ed taking them to task for a “lack of moral clarity.” Daniel Lippman reports that Rep. JARED MOSKOWITZ (D-Fla.) is among the Dems who have offered an unusual burst of support for Stefanik, reaching out to thank her. As Hanukkah started last night, Emhoff joined in the chorus of outrage, per Kelly Garrity, with the same phrasing: a “lack of moral clarity.”

Related read: “White House Disavows U.S. Islamic Group After Leader’s Oct. 7 Remarks,” by NYT’s Peter Baker: CAIR’s NIHAD AWAD “declared that he ‘was happy to see’ Palestinians break out of Gaza on Oct. 7. … Mr. Awad said his comments were being misconstrued.”

POLICY CORNER

FOR YOUR RADAR — “US sets policy to seize patents of government-funded drugs if price deemed too high,” by Reuters’ Patrick Wingrove: “The policy creates a roadmap for the government’s so-called march-in rights, which have never been used before.”

TV TONIGHT — PBS’ “Washington Week”: Anne Applebaum, Leigh Ann Caldwell, Vivian Salama and Chuck Todd.

SUNDAY SO FAR …

CBS “Face the Nation”: Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) … Janti Soeripto.

NBC “Meet the Press”: Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) … Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.). Panel: Cornell Belcher, Lanhee Chen, Jonathan Martin and Kelly O’Donnell.

MSNBC “The Katie Phang Show”: Sen. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii) … Mondaire Jones.

FOX “Fox News Sunday,” guest-anchored by Gillian Turner: Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) … Pål Jonson … Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears. Panel: Michael Allen, Olivia Beavers, Katie Pavlich and Juan Williams.

ABC “This Week”: Liz Cheney. Panel: Donna Brazile, Sarah Isgur, Mary Bruce and Asma Khalid.

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

Lauren Boebert reportedly spent campaign funds on watching her boyfriend’s bike race.

J.D. Vance accused Robert Kagan of calling for “open rebellion” and possibly breaking the law after the WaPo editor-at-large warned of a Donald Trump dictatorship.

Matthew Pritzker was ousted as a Joe Biden fundraiser co-host after sexual misconduct allegations.

Rick Scott thinks Chinese garlic might constitute a national security threat.

Vivek Ramaswamy has exasperated Fox News.

Dana Bash and CNN’s “State of the Union” team gave back.

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at JK Strategies’ inaugural holiday party at Zaytinya on Wednesday night: Dexter and Lydia Manley, Jimmy Kemp, Demetrios Kouzoukas, Mark Valentini, Craig Brightup, Riley Swinehart, Tim McBride, Mike Manatos, Steve LaPierre, Rebecca Hyder, George Longwell and Wayne Valis.

— SPOTTED at Global Situation Room’s seasonal soiree last night hosted by Brett Bruen and Johanna Maska at the Distilled Spirits Council’s Cocktail Caucus Bar: Aurélie Bonal, Brian Butcher, Jessica Killeen, Million Fikre, Tiffany Ge, Lisl Brunner, Ryan Meilak, Mike Schmidt, Christina Maruna and Eddie Burke.

MEDIA MOVE — Debra Saunders is returning to the Las Vegas Review-Journal as Washington columnist. She most recently has been a fellow at the Discovery Institute’s Chapman Center for Citizen Leadership.

WHITE HOUSE ARRIVAL LOUNGE — Alan Williams is now senior adviser for public engagement and intergovernmental affairs in the VP’s office. He most recently was deputy assistant HUD secretary for intergovernmental affairs and is a former Florida state representative.

TRANSITIONS — Josh Rogin will be SVP for federal government affairs at the Motion Picture Association. He most recently was VP of federal affairs at the Computer and Communications Industry Association and is a longtime House Dem alum. … Jeff Vockrodt will be president and CEO of the Fair Labor Association. He is a Climate Jobs NY and Labor Department alum. … The Trust for the National Mall is elevating or adding Laura Gleason as VP of philanthropy, Jeremy Goldstein as VP of programs and Stephen Peeler as senior director of philanthropy.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Ann Coulter … NBC’s Cesar Conde, Tom Mazzarelli and Elyse Perlmutter-Gumbiner … WSJ’s Sabrina SiddiquiDebra Saunders … Reuters’ Scott Malon Kerri Kupec … Washington Examiner’s Zach Halaschak … Semafor’s Joseph Zeballos-Roig … POLITICO’s Annie Yu and Danica Stanciu … AP’s Pablo Martínez MonsiváisJudd LegumB.R. McConnon … Artemis Strategies’ Brooke Lorenz … ABC’s Marc Burstein … Microsoft’s Ginny BadanesP. Lynn Scarlett … Siemens’ Brie SachseStephen SpauldingMark Piland of Rep. Ralph Norman’s (R-S.C.) office … former World Bank President Jim Yong KimKaren KellerPreston HillSteve Bouchard … former Rep. Raúl Labrador (R-Idaho) ... Courtney JohnsonLuis Rosero … State Department’s Anna MillerTom BushLizzie O’LearyTanika Pradhan Taylor Dibbert of the International Center for Journalists … Jeremy D’Aloisio of Sen. Ed Markey’s (D-Mass.) office … Debbie Cox Bultan ... Honey SharpSophia Narrett

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