The redistricting cases we’re waiting on ahead of 2024

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Dec 11, 2023 View in browser
 
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By Madison Fernandez

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TOP LINE

With such a thin Republican House majority, challenges to congressional maps across the country will play a part in determining which party claims control of the House in 2024.

A handful of states are up against the clock, as they have outstanding legal battles looming ahead of next year’s elections. Here is a rundown of the states to keep an eye on:

The U.S. Supreme Court pictured.

A decision is pending from the U.S. Supreme Court regarding South Carolina’s congressional map. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

— Georgia: The GOP-controlled state legislature last week passed a map that destroys Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath’s district, where Black, Latino and Asian voters made up a majority. Democrats have signaled that they are going to challenge the map and have until Tuesday to do so. There is a hearing scheduled on Dec. 20.

There are a few months until the filing deadline, and the case could play out in the courts. If this map is overturned, a special master would draw new lines. Republicans would likely then challenge that map.

— Louisiana: The Louisiana state legislature, which has a Republican majority, is poised to hold a special session next month to redraw its congressional map. It has until Jan. 30 to do so — or else a district court will decide on a plan for 2024 in a trial that would begin Feb. 5.

The fight over Louisiana’s map has been long-running. Last year, a district court ruled the map likely dilutes the power of Black voters and ordered a second majority-Black district to be drawn. (Only one of the six congressional districts in the state is majority-Black — and held by a Democrat. Around one-third of the state’s population is Black.) The state legislature appealed, but ahead of last year’s midterm elections, the Supreme Court put the case on hold in 2022.

The state’s filing deadline is in July, and its primary elections are in November.

— New York: New York’s highest court still has to rule on a case that could impact some of the most competitive battleground races next year. Last month, the state’s Court of Appeals heard arguments in a case brought by Democrats who argue the current congressional map — which was drawn by a special master last year — should be redrawn. Democrats suffered losses across the state last year on that very competitive map.

If the judges do rule in Democrats’ favor, the state’s redistricting commission will first be tasked with coming up with a new map. But ultimately, the Democratic-controlled legislature has the final say on lines in the state. That could open the door to even more litigation.

The court did not indicate when it will issue a decision. New York is holding its primary elections on June 25.

— South Carolina: A decision is pending from the U.S. Supreme Court regarding South Carolina’s congressional map — a ruling that could impact SC-01, currently held by Republican Rep. Nancy Mace. Republicans in the state challenged a lower court’s ruling that the district is the result of an unlawful racial gerrymander.

In an October hearing, the court’s conservative majority seemed likely to uphold the map. The filing deadline is in April.

— Florida: Earlier this month, a state appeals court overturned a lower court’s ruling that declared the state’s congressional map unconstitutional, opening the possibility of the case going to the state Supreme Court. That map destroyed FL-05, which was represented by Democratic Rep. Al Lawson before the post-census redistricting process, and led to Republicans picking up four seats in the midterms. The filing deadline is in April.

— Utah: The Utah Supreme Court in July heard a challenge to the state’s congressional map, arguing that it is gerrymandered to favor Republicans. A ruling is pending. Republicans currently hold all four Utah House seats. The state’s filing deadline is Jan. 8.

— Kentucky: A decision is also pending in the Kentucky Supreme Court, which heard arguments from Democrats in September accusing the map of being illegally gerrymandered. The filing deadline is Jan. 5.

— North Carolina: Black and Latino voters filed a suit last week over North Carolina’s map, which could flip as many as four Democratic-held seats. That lawsuit is unlikely to be resolved before the 2024 elections. Candidate filing is currently ongoing, and ends Dec. 15.

Happy Monday. Reach me at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616.

 

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Days until the Iowa Republican presidential caucuses: 35

Days until the Republican National Convention: 217

Days until the Democratic National Convention: 252

Days until the 2024 election: 330

CAMPAIGN INTEL

UP NEXT IN TX — Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Texas) lost her bid for mayor of Houston over the weekend to Democratic state Sen. John Whitmire. If she decides to run for reelection to the House, she only has until today to file. In a social media post on Sunday, she wrote, “I am honored to have had the privilege to serve you, to continue to serve you, and I am excited for the opportunities that lie ahead.”

TX-18 is a safe blue district. Isaiah Martin, a former intern for Lee whose campaign emphasizes him being Gen Z, and former Houston City Council member Amanda Edwards both announced bids for the seat. When asked by Score last week if their campaigns plan to continue if Jackson Lee loses the race and decides to run for reelection, a spokesperson for Edwards’ campaign said via email, “Yes, Amanda has already filed.” A spokesperson for Martin’s campaign didn’t answer directly when asked the same question, saying in a statement that “he expects the majority of Houston voters to support the Congresswoman in this race and has planned accordingly.”

2024 WATCH — Former Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-N.J.) is considering a Senate run, per the New Jersey Globe’s David Wildstein.

… Republican North Carolina state Rep. John Bradford is running for NC-08, which will be empty as Republican Rep. Dan Bishop runs for attorney general. It’s a safe red district. Bradford was previously running for state treasurer.

IT’S A NO FROM ME — Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.) is not running for Senate and is instead running for reelection to the House. Christine Serrano Glassner, a New Jersey mayor, remains the GOP frontrunner in the Senate race.

… Democratic Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz is not running for NY-26, which is being vacated by Democratic Rep. Brian Higgins in February. Poloncarz spent more than $1 million on his reelection bid earlier this year.

BALLOT BATTLE — The Indiana secretary of state is appealing a ruling that would allow Republican John Rust to run for Senate. Indiana law says that a candidate’s past two primary elections must be cast with the party the candidate is running in, or they must get approval from a county party chair. Rust, who did not vote as a Republican in the past two primary elections and faces an uphill battle against Rep. Jim Banks, sought to overturn that law. A county judge last week ruled in favor of Rust appearing on the ballot.

IN THE STATES — Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) endorsed businessperson Bill Graham over Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson in next year’s GOP primary for governor, he told National Review’s Audrey Fahlberg, saying it “comes down to experience.” Robinson’s electability has been questioned in light of controversial statements he has made, including those against abortion and the LGBTQ+ community. The News & Observer’s Dawn Baumgartner Vaughan recently reported that Robinson previously embraced false claims about the 2020 election being stolen.

… Utah Attorney General Sean Reyes is not running for reelection, after announcing that he was planning on doing so instead of pursuing a Senate bid to replace retiring Republican Sen. Mitt Romney. Reyes has been under scrutiny for his ties to Tim Ballard, the former head of anti-human trafficking organization Operation Underground Railroad and potential Senate candidate who has been accused of sexual assault. Reyes cited his reasoning as wanting to focus on his family and private practice.

 

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Presidential Big Board

UP FOR DEBATE — The RNC is not scheduling any more Republican presidential primary debates and dropped the requirement barring candidates from participating in non-RNC sanctioned events, per POLITICO’s Alex Isenstadt.

THE PAC PRIMARY — We Deserve Better, Inc., a super PAC that filed with the FEC at the beginning of this month, is being run by Matt and Scott Krisiloff, tech industry heavyweights who are allies with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, in support of Rep. Dean Phillips’ (D-Minn.) presidential bid, Puck’s Teddy Schleifer reports. Altman previously met with Phillips, but “isn’t expected to have any formal involvement with the super PAC.” Pass the Torch is another super PAC boosting Phillips’ bid.

SWING STATE STRESS — Democrats are raising concerns that Biden’s campaign has been too slow in building out its campaign infrastructure in key states, POLITICO’s Elena Schneider and Holly Otterbein report. “In the swing states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia, the Biden team has not announced any staff, lagging months behind [former President Donald Trump’s] pace in 2019 when he was running for a second term. … The Biden campaign argued that Democrats’ fears are overblown and ignore the groundwork already laid by the Democratic National Committee and Democratic state parties.”

 

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AS SEEN ON TV

PRESIDENTIAL — SFA Fund Inc., the super PAC boosting former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley’s presidential bid, is running a spot in Iowa tying Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to Trump.

MT-Sen — Republican Montana Senate candidate Tim Sheehy is connecting Democratic Sen. Jon Tester to Biden, calling them “too liberal to keep us safe” amid tensions at the U.S.-Mexico border and the Israel-Hamas war.

WV-Sen — Club for Growth Action, which has endorsed Republican Rep. Alex Mooney in the primary for Senate, is also linking Republican Gov. Jim Justice to the president.

 

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STAFFING UP

— Chris Maidment is New Hampshire political director for Never Back Down, the super PAC boosting DeSantis’ presidential bid. He was previously director of grassroots operations at Americans for Prosperity, which endorsed Haley for president.

— Kean MacLelland is campaign manager for Rep. Tom Kean’s (R-N.J.) reelection bid. He was previously a chief of staff in the state Assembly.

CODA: QUOTE OF THE DAY — “I’m not Taylor Swift. No one gives a damn about my relationship status.” — Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) to the Daily Mail.

 

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