The United Nations' annual climate negotiations are contentious, confusing and — every so often — consequential. COP28, which belatedly concluded today in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, may have been one of those rare summits that actually matters. That's because, for the first time, diplomats unanimously recognized what's been painfully obvious for decades: The world needs to transition "away from fossil fuels in energy systems," as the hard-fought agreement put it, to have a shot at avoiding catastrophic global warming. The overdue acknowledgement that oil, gas and coal are the main cause of climate change was all the more surprising because it happened at a conference in the UAE, a petrostate along the Persian Gulf. "We’re in an oil country surrounded by oil countries that are now signing a piece of paper saying we need to move away from oil," Danish Climate Minister Dan Jørgensen marveled, according to the Dubai wrap-up from Karl Mathiesen and an inexhaustible team of POLITICO reporters. "It is historic." But it's too soon to judge: The true measure of COP28's success will only become apparent in the coming months and years, when the leaders of nations and companies decide how to interpret the deal. Will they strive to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030, a target that's well within reach, POLITICO's Giovanna Coi reports? Or will they seize on potential loopholes in the text that support continued investment in "transitional fuels" (read: natural gas) and commercially unproven carbon capture technologies, as your host reported for E&E News? U.S. climate envoy John Kerry made the optimistic case at COP28. Kerry played a central role in brokering the agreement, Mathiesen and company also reported. “This document sends very strong messages to the world,” he said. “This is much stronger and clearer as a call” for halting global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius — an increasingly out-of-reach goal of climate negotiators — “than we have ever heard before.” But representatives of island nations most at risk from sea-level rise and other climate impacts weren't even in the room when the UAE celebrated the agreement and gavelled COP28 to a close. "This is not an approach we should be asked to defend," said Anne Rasmussen, the lead negotiator for Samoa. Next stop: Baku. The leadership of the climate negotiations now shifts from one oil state to another: COP29 will be held in the capital of Azerbaijan, a former Soviet republic that relies on fossil fuels for more than 90 percent of its exports. Azerbaijan scored the diplomatic honor — and commercial opportunity — by winning the support of Armenia, a neighboring rival that it has warred with on and off for decades. Russia also helped by blocking the bids of nearly every other viable candidate from Eastern Europe, the region next in line to host the talks, because they had been critical of Moscow's decision to invade Ukraine.
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