A scientist’s AI regrets

The ideas and innovators shaping health care
Jan 08, 2024 View in browser
 
Future Pulse

By Carmen Paun, Daniel Payne, Ruth Reader and Erin Schumaker

WORLD VIEW

Jeremy Farrar posing for a portrait.

Jeremy Farrar. | Wellcome

The World Health Organization’s chief scientist wants the global health body to better prepare for future scientific and technological developments instead of react to them.

That’s the case with artificial intelligence, which Jeremy Farrar regrets the WHO didn’t focus on enough before the release of ChatGPT, the bot that can pass medical exams, sent the world into a tizzy.

An infectious disease expert, Farrar led the U.K. health charity Wellcome for nearly two decades before taking over as the WHO’s chief scientist last year.

He laid out his lessons learned in an interview with Carmen, which has been edited for length and clarity.

How should the WHO handle technological change?

Science to me is about looking to the future of what’s possible, and I think it’s also about anticipating what’s coming rather than reacting to it. We cannot predict the future, but we can frame what is coming.

Although I hadn’t heard of ChatGPT two years ago, people had it on their agenda.

And I think that WHO and other technical agencies of the U.N. need to be forward-thinking in terms of anticipating what technological and scientific changes, in whichever discipline or science, are coming.

We need to anticipate them so that we can facilitate rather than react.

What do you mean by facilitate?

With AI at the moment — in which I’m not an expert — we’re sort of reacting now, thinking about what regulation we need to put around it, how we can make sure it's safe.

Maybe we should have had those discussions five years ago so we could have gotten ahead of other questions: How do we maximize its benefit? How do we maximize the equity that’s in it and not increase inequity? And how do we make sure we provide regulation that ensures safety and quality while allowing innovation to happen?

Is it too late to do that?

Every time we face a new technology, probably throughout history, from the printing press to genomics to AI, it’s always frightening and rightly so because it’s new, it’s different.

But many of these technological and scientific advances — with some exceptions, of course — have proved to be incredibly positive.

I think in today’s world, we can anticipate that better.

WELCOME TO FUTURE PULSE

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This is where we explore the ideas and innovators shaping health care.

A push by public health activists in France to convince the government to endorse a “dry January” campaign has gotten a chilly reception, our colleagues Carlo Martuscelli and Alessandro Ford report.

Share any thoughts, news, tips and feedback with Carmen Paun at cpaun@politico.com, Daniel Payne at dpayne@politico.com, Ruth Reader at rreader@politico.com or Erin Schumaker at eschumaker@politico.com.

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FOLLOW THE MONEY

A mobile emergency room in a hospital.

Tough times will continue for nonprofit hospitals, a ratings agency predicts. | David Goldman/AP

The financial outlook for nonprofit hospitals is expected to continue to deteriorate into 2024 — but perhaps not as precipitously as it did last year, according to a new analysis from Fitch Ratings, a credit ratings agency.

How so? While patient volume has returned for many health systems, reimbursements haven’t kept up with rising costs.

But “signs of life” are emerging, the new analysis found, suggesting that some financial gains could mean the industry’s recent losses are slowing. Margins have improved for some systems, though the trajectory for the year remains uncertain.

In 2023, nearly three credit downgrades occurred for every upgrade among hospitals included in the analysis. In 2024, projections show that leveling a bit, to nearly two downgrades for each upgrade.

Even as things improve, analysts say some hospitals will have to transform their business models to survive. More volume won’t be the answer as much as diversifying their lines of business will be, they said.

How we got here: Hospitals have had a bumpy time financially, especially since 2022 when much of the government pandemic funding began drying up.

Fitch previously suggested 2024 would be a “make-or-break” year for many in the sector as pressures continue.

CHECKUP

A photo taken on November 23, 2023 shows the logo of the ChatGPT application.

Private equity's interested in the health sector, and in AI. | KIRILL KUDRYAVTSEV/AFP via Getty Images

Health systems want to invest in the new AI, according to Bain & Company’s 2024 Global Healthcare Private Equity Report.

The systems are often owned by private equity investors, which have vacuumed up hospital systems over the last few years.

They’re looking at how generative AI, which mimics human intelligence, can give them an edge.

How so? More than half of providers in a recent survey said they are building a strategy to incorporate AI into their work.

Why it matters: Bain, a management consulting firm, says AI won’t replace doctors’ “expert guidance” anytime soon. However, it sees the technology as a way to improve the quality of administrative operations and reach more customers.

In particular, the consultants see some opportunity within health care IT to add AI products that help health systems, insurers and other payers, and biopharmaceutical companies to better automate revenue cycle management, workflow and patient engagement.

The Bain report notes that big tech companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and IBM, which all offer AI products, are already making significant inroads in health care. In the survey, more than half of providers said they planned to work with big tech firms to advance their IT strategy.

 

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