High expectations, high risks for Biden and Trump

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Jan 08, 2024 View in browser
 
Playbook PM

By Eli Okun

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DEPT. OF WEAPONIZING GOVERNMENT — Early this morning, DONALD TRUMP threatened on Truth Social to have law enforcement criminally indict JOE BIDEN if Trump returns to the White House. “By weaponizing the DOJ against his Political Opponent, ME, Joe has opened a giant Pandora’s Box,” he warned.

BLUE BELL, PENNSYLVANIA - JANUARY 5: U.S. President Joe Biden speaks during a campaign event at Montgomery County Community College January 5, 2024 in Blue Bell, Pennsylvania. In his first campaign event of the 2024 election season, Biden stated that democracy and fundamental freedoms are under threat if former U.S. President Donald Trump returns to the White House. (Photo by Drew   Angerer/Getty Images)

President Joe Biden's margin in the South Carolina primary could be telling as an indicator of how much he’s slipped with Black voters. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images

POTUS ON THE ROAD — Biden delivered impassioned remarks today at Mother Emanuel AME Church in Charleston, South Carolina, where he reflected on the 2015 white supremacist massacre as an inflection point for the soul of the nation. And he laid out a narrative that neatly interwove his reelection pitch and the anniversary of the Jan. 6 insurrection with knocks against his Republican challengers. Without naming them, he slammed Trump’s lies about the 2020 election, Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS’ restrictions on teaching about race and NIKKI HALEY’s recent Civil War gaffe — likening people who propagate the “Big Lie” to Confederates who couldn’t accept their loss in the 1860s.

“Losers are taught to concede when they lose,” Biden said of Trump. “And he’s a loser. … But here in Charleston, you know the power of truth. … Instead of erasing history, we’re making history.”

“Four more years!” the crowd chanted repeatedly this afternoon. But despite the excited reception, Biden’s South Carolina trip comes as he struggles to win over the Black voters nationwide who proved so pivotal to his 2020 victory. In that primary, South Carolina’s mostly Black Democratic electorate resurrected Biden’s campaign and sent him on to victory. But his margin in next month’s (non-competitive) primary could be telling as an indicator of how much he’s slipped in the past four years, CNN’s Isaac Dovere, Priscilla Alvarez and Betsy Klein report.

Biden’s campaign has failed to recruit enough — or effective enough — Black surrogates, Democrats worry aloud to Semafor’s Kadia Goba. And leading Black women have twice recently told the Biden campaign that he needs to make changes, now, if he wants to retain their support at the levels he needs, NOTUS’ Jasmine Wright reports. They want Black women to be better represented in senior positions at the campaign/DNC, better surrogates, messaging changes and even tweaks to merch.

 

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SPEAKING OF MARGINS — All signs indicate that Trump is headed for a big victory in the Iowa caucuses next week. Yet his “trademark air of confidence has been accompanied by an unusual sense of apprehension,” CNN’s Jeff Zeleny, Kit Maher and Eric Bradner report from Des Moines. Expectations have risen so high that a less-commanding win could give Haley or DeSantis a sense of momentum and puncture the sense of inevitability around Trump’s nomination.

Trump advisers and allies are balancing the competing imperatives of projecting confidence and lowering the bar: His team is telling reporters that Iowa margins aren’t usually huge, AP’s Steve Peoples and Thomas Beaumont report from North Liberty. But the Trump campaign is also executing an unconventional strategy: In the final days, it’s reducing traditional ground-game operations to focus more on rallies, calls and texts, per the AP.

Trump has spent most of the past month at Mar-a-Lago, relying on surrogates instead of campaigning himself, NBC’s Vaughn Hillyard, Jake Traylor and Dan Gallo report from Des Moines. He’s choosing to head to court in D.C. and New York two days this week instead of Iowa. And Trump’s super PAC MAGA Inc. launched a new $1.3 million attack ad campaign hitting Haley on immigration, doubling down on his extremist rhetoric about immigrants “poisoning” the country, The Messenger’s Marc Caputo scooped. All in all, a typical Iowa campaign ground game is the latest norm Trump has shattered on his way to victory, Semafor’s Shelby Talcott notes.

It just might work. To understand one big reason why, read this insightful and detailed story from NYT’s Ruth Graham and Charles Homans about the changing nature of the Trumpist GOP’s white evangelical Christian base. Today’s conservative evangelicals are less likely to be regular churchgoers than in generations past; the single-minded focus on issues like abortion has diminished. Being evangelical now “is as often used to describe a cultural and political identity: one in which Christians are considered a persecuted minority, traditional institutions are viewed skeptically and Mr. Trump looms large.” Says one expert: “Politics has become the master identity.”

Good Monday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.

 

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7 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW

Kathryn Bucshon looks on as her husband Larry Bucshon (R) smiles to a crowd as he is congratulated after beating Trent Van Haaften (D) to win the U.S. House of Representatives 8th District race at Casino Aztar in Evansville, Ind., on Tuesday evening. (Erin McCracken/ Associated Press)

Rep. Larry Bucshon's (R-Ind.) departure means the House GOP Conference continues to lose some of its most senior doctors. | Erin McCracken/AP Photo

1. ANOTHER ONE: Rep. LARRY BUCSHON (R-Ind.) became the latest House member to announce he won’t run for reelection. But he made sure not to link his retirement to the House GOP’s dysfunction last year: “Recent disputes in Congress and difficulties advancing policy on behalf of the American people have not soured my faith in our Constitutional Republic form of government,” he wrote in his statement. “In fact, it has strengthened that faith.” Bucshon’s seat is expected to remain safely Republican. But along with the retirements of Reps. BRAD WENSTRUP (R-Ohio), MICHAEL BURGESS (R-Texas) and DREW FERGUSON (R-Ga.), Bucshon’s departure means the conference is losing some of its most senior doctors.

2. BIG BIDEN MOVE: MITCH LANDRIEU is departing his role as infrastructure coordinator at the White House to become national co-chair of the Biden reelect, Lauren Egan reports. The former New Orleans mayor is also expected to do clean-energy private-sector work, per AP’s Seung Min Kim, who floats some 2028 speculation about Landrieu too. At the White House, he oversaw the announcements of more than 40,000 projects and $1 trillion from the bipartisan infrastructure law; he’ll be replaced at the helm of the infrastructure team by deputy chief of staff NATALIE QUILLIAN.

3. NOT GOING ANYWHERE: “Biden won’t accept an Austin resignation if offered,” by Jonathan Lemire and Alex Ward: “President Joe Biden is not considering firing Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN after he did not tell the White House about his emergency hospitalization … [T]he president would not accept a resignation if Austin were to offer one. … Biden is famously loyal and values continuity in his cabinet. He gets his back up when the pundit class calls for him to make such personnel changes. The chatter around Austin makes it that much less likely he’d act.”

Nonetheless, the fallout continued today as more lawmakers started to weigh in: Leading Democrats have voiced concerns and questions, Connor O’Brien and Joe Gould report, while Rep. ELISE STEFANIK (R-N.Y.) became the latest high-profile Republican to call for Austin’s resignation. JOHN KIRBY told reporters that though the administration will “try to learn from this,” Biden respects Austin for taking “ownership” for the situation and remains confident in him.

 

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4. IMMIGRATION FILES: Ongoing talks between the U.S. and Mexico could be critical to stemming the flow of migrants to the southern border, but ANDRÉS MANUEL LÓPEZ OBRADOR’s government has some tall orders for Washington, NBC’s Julia Ainsley reports. Last week, AMLO called for $20 billion from the U.S. to Latin America and the Caribbean, the end of economic restrictions on Cuba and Venezuela and giving legal status to 10 million immigrants in the U.S. (Lots of luck in your senior year!) But Mexico has plenty of leverage in the negotiations, and it could offer stepped-up enforcement in exchange for more financial assistance and a “good-faith” U.S. effort to tackle immigration’s fundamental drivers.

Among the surge of recent immigrants, the fastest-growing nationality is Chinese. CNN’s Yong Xiong, Simone McCarthy and David Culver have a detailed look at the “network of businesses and social media accounts catering to Chinese migrants” that has sprung up underground to help shepherd them through Latin America to the U.S.

5. ANDY BESHEAR’S NEXT MOVE: “Gov. Andy Beshear is a rising Democratic star. He has new PAC to prove it,” by the Louisville Courier Journal’s Phillip Bailey, Lucas Aulbach and Riley Beggin: “Beshear is launching ‘In This Together,’ a federal political action committee (PAC) which will endorse and raise money on behalf of candidates across the country in the 2024 election cycle … Establishing the group signals Beshear is ready to take a larger role in the party outside of the Bluegrass State after an impressive reelection win in November.”

6. SCOTUS WATCH: The Supreme Court today issued a pair of notable rejections: The court declined to allow Exxon, Koch Industries and the American Petroleum Institute to move a Minnesota climate change lawsuit from state to federal court, Bloomberg’s Greg Stohr reports. (Justice BRETT KAVANAUGH dissented, saying he would have heard the appeal.) And it allowed California’s ban on the sale of flavored cigarettes to stand, opting against hearing a challenge from the tobacco industry, per CNN’s Devan Cole. Tobacco interests have been trying, unsuccessfully, to overturn the law for years.

7. CASH DASH: The latest fourth-quarter fundraising numbers are starting to arrive. Among the notable reports: Pennsylvania Republican Senate contender DAVE McCORMICK raised $5.4 million last quarter and contributed another $1 million, per Axios’ Hans Nichols. Nevada GOP Senate hopeful SAM BROWN raised $1.85 million, per Fox News’ Brandon Gillespie. In just six weeks, New Jersey first lady and Senate contender TAMMY MURPHY raised $3.2 million, per the New Jersey Globe’s David Wildstein. And Iowa Democratic House challenger CHRISTINA BOHANNAN pulled in $650,000, per The Messenger’s Stephen Neukam.

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

Bernie Sanders is taking on the cost of inhalers.

Mike Lawler is on board with impeaching Alejandro Mayorkas.

Ron DeSantis’ absence is being felt in Tallahassee.

Richard Zeitlin is struggling behind bars.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Curt Mills is now executive director of The American Conservative. He most recently was a contributing editor at the magazine.

TRANSITIONS — Earl Adams Jr. has rejoined Hogan Lovells as a partner in the transportation practice. He previously was deputy administrator for the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration at the Department of Transportation . … Frank Avery will rejoin the Business-Higher Education Forum as managing director of partnerships. He currently is on the management team for the U.S. Economic Development Administration’s Good Jobs Challenge team. …

… Chloe Grainger is now director of policy and advocacy at the National NeighborWorks Association. She previously was senior legislative assistant for Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-Ill.). … Laura Holmberg is now senior director of accounts at Prologue. She previously led marketing and industry comms for the U.S. Travel Association.

WEDDING — Khan Ahmadzai, who works in production in Newsmax’s D.C. bureau, and Russul Alamiree, financial data analyst at RBS Financial, got married Dec. 9 at Bamian restaurant in Falls Church. They met in 2020 through a mutual friend. PicAnother pic

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