| | | | |  | | By Eli Okun | | | BUBBLE BURST — Speaker MIKE JOHNSON said today that his agreement on topline spending levels with Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER remains in place, despite House Freedom Caucus members’ claims yesterday that he planned to renege on it. That brings the odds of an imminent government shutdown lower — though by no means zero — while further raising tensions between Johnson and the House GOP’s right flank. More from Olivia Beavers and Jordain Carney
|  Iowa political watchers expect the weather to dampen turnout, with Donald Trump the likeliest beneficiary. | Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images | NEWS YOU CAN USE — With a major winter storm bearing down on the Midwest, anybody traveling to Iowa should steel themselves for travel disruptions: FlightAware shows that lots of flights from the D.C. area to Des Moines have already been canceled. NIKKI HALEY converted her in-person events to telephone town halls, and Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS’ super PAC canceled some but not all of its live events today, per NewsNation’s Emily Finn. Iowa political watchers expect the weather to dampen turnout, NBC’s Jonathan Allen, Natasha Korecki and Jillian Frankel report — with DONALD TRUMP the likeliest beneficiary. Semafor’s Dave Weigel calls this weekend a “cold and miserable trudge to Trump’s inevitable Iowa win.” What’s at stake in 2024: The intricacies of tax policy are probably not top of mind for most Iowa Republicans as they prepare for Monday’s caucuses. But who occupies the White House in 2025 could have massive implications for the country’s tax structure — as highlighted most strikingly by new reporting this morning from WaPo’s Jeff Stein that Trump is privately planning for another major round of corporate tax cuts in a second term. Those comments behind closed doors, backed up by some advisers’ private interest in expanding the 2017 tax cuts, stand in contrast to the Trump campaign’s public emphasis on cutting taxes for families and small businesses. And they show the limits of his populist messaging. Any further corporate tax cuts would enlarge the already $6 trillion difference between Trump’s and President JOE BIDEN’s likely plans for tax changes in 2025, as WSJ’s Richard Rubin pegs it. Biden wants to allow most of Trump’s tax cuts to expire, while Republicans want to extend them, at a cost of roughly $4 trillion. And Biden also plans unspecified tax increases for the wealthy and corporations that would raise another $2 trillion. “That $6 trillion gap is on the ballot,” Rubin writes, “and the ultimate resolution will affect family budgets, corporate profits and the federal government’s fiscal health amid rising debt.”
| | | | A message from Instagram: New federal legislation will give parents a say in teen app downloads.
According to a new poll by Morning Consult conducted in November 2023, more than 75% of parents believe teens under 16 shouldn’t be able to download apps without parental permission.1
Instagram wants to work with Congress to pass federal legislation that gets it done.
Learn more.
1"US Parents Study on Teen App Downloads" by Morning Consult (Meta-commissioned survey of 2,019 parents), Nov. 2023. | | | Mood music in the Hawkeye State: For explanations of why Trump seems to be headed for a big victory in Iowa next week, look no further than a trio of stories posted this morning that capture his hold on the Republican electorate:
- In Garner, WSJ’s John McCormick finds that rural voters who rejected Trump in the 2016 caucuses now love his populist appeal and think he’s the best bet to beat Biden.
- Around the state, multiple evangelical pastors tell NYT’s Katie Glueck that they’ve been swayed by Trump’s track record, especially on the Supreme Court.
More Iowa reading: “Two Iowa counties an hour apart show America’s growing political divide,” by WaPo’s Theo Meyer … “Asa Hutchinson, Tilting at a Trump-Branded Windmill, Hangs On,” by NYT’s Jonathan Weisman The Biden campaign, meanwhile, can’t wait for GOP primary voting to begin, so that more Americans realize that it’ll likely be Trump vs. Biden again: CNN’s MJ Lee and Arlette Saenz report that the campaign’s research shows three-quarters of undecided voters don’t think Trump will be the nominee. FASCINATING SUCCESS STORY — Seventy years ago, the U.S. backed an anti-democratic coup in Guatemala that installed a military dictator. But as democratic reformer BERNARDO ARÉVALO is sworn in Sunday as Guatemala’s new president, the Biden administration actually helped prevent an anti-democratic coup from blocking him, WaPo’s Mary Beth Sheridan and Nic Wirtz report. With “a blizzard of sanctions, stern public statements and quiet arm-twisting,” reams of American government bureaucrats played an essential role in making sure that Arévalo could rightly assume the presidency after he won the election. For the U.S., “Guatemala may emerge as a rare success in promoting democracy.” Happy Friday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Programming note: We’ll be off Monday for the holiday, but Playbook will still be in your inbox every morning. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.
| | | | GLOBAL PLAYBOOK IS TAKING YOU TO DAVOS! Unlock the insider's guide to one of the world's most influential gatherings as POLITICO's Global Playbook takes you behind the scenes of the 2024 World Economic Forum. Author Suzanne Lynch will be on the ground in the Swiss Alps, bringing you the exclusive conversations, shifting power dynamics and groundbreaking ideas shaping the agenda in Davos. Stay in the know with POLITICO's Global Playbook, your VIP pass to the world’s most influential gatherings. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | |  | 9 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW | | |  Major crowds demonstrated across Yemen today in protest of the U.S.-led strikes. | AFP via Getty Images | 1. WAR REPORT: The Houthis responded angrily today to the military strikes from the U.S. and others on the Yemeni militia, pledging that they’d respond in kind as the regional conflict threatened to deepen, NYT’s Thomas Fuller and Victoria Kim report. The Biden administration has said the strikes were a critical response to the Houthis’ ongoing attacks on ships in the Red Sea, which the Iranian-backed militia launched in protest of the Israel-Hamas war, and came only after weeks of unheeded warnings to stop. But even some American allies in the Middle East criticized yesterday’s strikes, including Oman; Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Egypt have also been hesitant to join in, per Semafor’s Jay Solomon. The Pentagon’s PATRICK RYDER told MSNBC today that the strikes initially appear to have had “good effects.” But regional experts give a reality check to NYT’s Vivian Nereim and Saeed Al-Batati: Yesterday won’t likely deter the Houthis, because they want a broader regional war. Major crowds demonstrated across Yemen today in protest of the U.S.-led strikes. Intriguingly, Trump joined the chorus of criticism, raising the prospect that he could again position himself as a rare Republican isolationist in the campaign against Biden. He wrote on Truth Social, “So, let me get this straight. We’re dropping bombs all over the Middle East, AGAIN (where I defeated ISIS!) … Now we have wars in Ukraine, Israel, and Yemen, but no ‘war’ on our Southern Border.” 2. MARK YOUR CALENDARS: House Majority Leader STEVE SCALISE announced that a floor vote on holding HUNTER BIDEN in contempt of Congress will come next week. … House Homeland Security Chair MARK GREEN (R-Tenn.) announced that the next impeachment hearing for DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS will be Thursday morning. 3. SPOILER ALERT: No Labels now has a list of 13 potential contenders for its presidential ticket, and it’s leaning toward a combination of a Republican presidential candidate and Democratic VP candidate, the Washington Examiner’s Julia Johnson scooped. And the centrist group is likelier to put up a ticket come March if Trump appears to be the GOP nominee than if NIKKI HALEY upsets him. 4. MERRICK GARLAND’S BIG DECISION: The Justice Department will ask for the death penalty for PAYTON GENDRON, the white supremacist who unleashed a massacre of Black people at a Buffalo supermarket, per WaPo’s David Nakamura. It’s the first time, he writes, that Garland “has authorized a new capital prosecution.”
| | | | A message from Instagram:   | | | 5. IMMIGRATION LATEST: Senate negotiators are making some small progress in bipartisan talks over immigration policy, with new discussions focused on expanding quick tracking and deportation of undocumented immigrants, NBC’s Julia Ainsley, Julie Tsirkin and Frank Thorp V report. The potential idea to broaden the Family Expedited Removal Management program beyond just families has support from the Biden administration, though it would require more funding — and humanitarian parole remains a big sticking point in the negotiations. 6. CASUAL FRIDAY: “Smaller events, fewer ties — Biden is heeding advice to loosen up,” by NBC’s Monica Alba and Mike Memoli: “The series of subtle shifts … are meant to signal that Biden is more youthful than his 81 years might suggest. One of the changes will be on display Friday when Biden travels to Pennsylvania. He plans to ditch his usual format of delivering a prepared speech to an assembled audience and to instead make a series of stops at smaller venues.” 7. THE LOAN LURCH: In the Biden administration’s latest move to ease Americans’ student loan burden, the White House today is speeding up the “SAVE plan” to cancel debt for some borrowers, Michael Stratford reports. Instead of the planned implementation in July, some of the 7 million people in the program — it’s not clear how many — will start seeing relief in February. 8. THE GREAT SORTING: “What America’s Relocation Boom Means for Election 2024,” by Bloomberg’s Shawn Donnan: “The population shifts are more pronounced in some battleground states than others, and they don’t uniformly favor Biden. But in aggregate, they offer a reason for optimism for the president’s campaign … A Bloomberg analysis of state population forecasts found swing-state counties that Biden won in 2020 will have on net gained almost twice as many people by election day as those that voted for Trump. 9. HOW THE 14A PUSH IS PLAYING: A new ABC/Ipsos poll finds that Americans are fairly evenly split over the efforts to bar Trump from the ballot under the 14th Amendment’s insurrection clause — but generally more open to the idea than Republicans would like. By a narrow 49% to 46% margin, Americans say they support the Colorado and Maine decisions to boot him out of the race. And, overall, 56% of people say they’re willing to see him disqualified.
| | | | POLITICO AT CES® 2024: We are going ALL On at CES 2024 with a special edition of the POLITICO Digital Future Daily newsletter. The CES-focused newsletter will take you inside the most powerful tech event in the world, featuring revolutionary products that cut across verticals, and insights from industry leaders that are shaping the future of innovation. The newsletter runs from Jan. 9-12 and will focus on the public policy-related aspects of the gathering. Sign up today to receive exclusive coverage of the show. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Rand Paul likes Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy and even Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — but he’s “never” Nikki Haley. Sherrod Brown raised a whopping $6.6 million. Steve Garvey is gaining ground in a new LA Times poll of the California Senate race. Charlie Kirk is making a new push to discredit Martin Luther King Jr. and the Civil Rights Act. Jamie Raskin wants Trump to give back $7.8 million in emoluments. Rodney Davis and other former members are back lobbying on the Hill. SPOTTED: Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) having dinner last night at the Foundry in Manchester, New Hampshire, with Dean Kamen, Heather Manchin and Jon Kott. TRANSITION — Rachel Skaar will be deputy comms director for the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee. She currently is press secretary for Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.). Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton, producer Andrew Howard and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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