| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg and Alexander Ward | |  “We seek to stop the spread of conflict and to create the conditions for de-escalation,” national security adviser Jake Sullivan said in a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos today. | Markus Schreiber/AP | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt With help from Daniel Lippman As multiple countries clash in the Middle East, concerns are rising in Washington that a wider regional conflict is already here. This morning, the U.S. military carried out preemptive strikes on Houthis in Yemen, destroying four anti-ship ballistic missiles that the rebels were preparing to launch, three U.S. officials told our own LARA SELIGMAN. That follows strikes from the U.S. and allies on Thursday and Friday last week. U.S. officials have said the strikes intend to deter the Houthis from aiming missiles and drones at international shipping vessels in the Red Sea. But the Houthis keep attacking, Arab leaders keep criticizing Israel’s military operation, and Iranian militants struck inside Iraq and Syria today. That’s not to mention the risk of Lebanon-based Hezbollah targeting American troops in the region. “The lid is still on the pot, but you can see and hear the boiling underneath,” a senior Biden administration official told NatSec Daily. “It is in everyone’s interest to collectively turn down the temperature before it spills over.” That’s what the U.S. is trying to do, according to U.S. officials. But national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN said the Biden administration never argued that bombing Houthi targets would make them stop outright, and the U.S. expected the militants would continue to hold the Red Sea at risk. “We seek to stop the spread of conflict and to create the conditions for de-escalation,” Sullivan said in a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos today. Tensions between Middle Eastern countries and the U.S.-Israel alliance were on full display at Davos. Today, Qatari Prime Minister SHEIKH MOHAMMED BIN ABDULRAHMAN AL THANI blasted Israel for its continued military offensive in the Gaza Strip that has killed upwards of 24,000 Palestinians in three months. “Gaza is not there anymore. I mean, there is nothing over there,” he said during a panel talk. “It’s carpet bombing everywhere.” Meanwhile Hamas took responsibility for firing about 25 rockets at an Israeli city six miles from the Gaza border, which damaged one building, The New York Times’ AARON BOXERMAN reports. The attacks prompted far-right Israeli politicians to criticize the country’s decision to scale down its offensive. But fighting will only end with a two-state solution, the Qatari PM argued, emphasizing that it’s impossible for the war to come to a close “without having a government and politicians in Israel who believe in coexisting together side by side peacefully.” Saudi Foreign Minister Prince FAISAL BIN FARHAN also told a panel at the forum that the Kingdom could recognize Israel only if a two-state solution could be reached, Reuters’ MAHA EL DAHAN reports. That’s a major concession from the Saudi official, as the U.S. attempts to normalize relations with Israel and the Kingdom. “We have to keep making the case to our allies and adversaries alike: no one will truly benefit from a large, active, regional conflict, but the collective harm that would come to civilians and economies is enormous,” the senior administration official told NatSec Daily. ICYMI — Why the world is betting against American democracy by our own NAHAL TOOSI
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Lockheed Martin is developing advanced IAMD capabilities to give sailors more options using existing capabilities. Integrating PAC-3 MSE into the Aegis Weapon System would deliver an advanced, combat-proven IAMD capability to U.S. Sailors. Learn more. | | | | | ZELENSKYY’S ZEAL: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY expressed optimism that the West will provide his country with the military aid it needs to defeat Russia, Alex writes in from Davos. His address to the well-heeled audience at the World Economic Forum came as $61 billion in aid is held up in Congress by Republicans over border negotiations and European countries fight over providing more assistance to Kyiv. It’s a nervy time for Ukraine as the West’s commitment has come into question more than at point in the two years since Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN ordered an all-out invasion. But Zelenskyy was surprisingly upbeat about the prospects for further support. “I have positive signals that Europe is supporting us and I think we will also manage to solve the issue of aid in Congress,” he said through a translator. Zelenskyy’s remarks came after he met with top U.S. officials — Sullivan and Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN — as well as European Commission President URSULA VON DER LEYEN. Zelenskyy referenced those on both sides of the Atlantic calling for Ukraine and Russia to negotiate an end to fighting, freezing the conflict in place. The Ukrainian leader said that was impossible because of Putin’s appetite to overtake Ukraine. But he argued, this time in English, that those who want to see arms laid down soon should back more assistance to Kyiv: “Every reduction in pressure on the aggressor adds years to the war, but every investment in the confidence of the defender shortens the war.” Zelenskyy’s rosy outlook may be a bit misplaced. Sen. CHRIS COONS (D-Del.), who led the two-senator delegation to the forum, told NatSec Daily that while he expects the White House-supported Ukraine package to pass the Senate, its future in the Republican-led House is less clear. “The House will be difficult,” he said on the sidelines of the conference. What happens if the U.S. doesn’t push through that package, which also includes billions in support for Israel’s defense and border security? “Wow,” Coons said, “bad, bad, bad, bad, bad.” Sullivan, in his speech on the Davos stage, said he expects the package will wind its way through Congress “after a lot of twists and turns.” Read: A big Chinese delegation unnerves U.S. diplomats in Davos by our own NAHAL TOOSI NAVY SEAL SEARCH: A pair of Navy Seals are missing after U.S. forces recovered Iranian-made missile warheads and other components during a ship-boarding mission in Somalia last week, U.S. defense officials told The Washington Post’s ALEX HORTON. While the mission disrupted arms supplies to Yemeni militants, the officials said, two Navy Seals were lost at sea, and a massive rescue operation is now underway in the Arabian Sea. One of the Seals slipped off a ladder while boarding the ship, and another jumped into the water to help. Both were swept away by powerful swells. The rescue operation began as other Seals searched the boat and took 14 crew members into custody, U.S. Central Command wrote in a statement today. They seized Iranian-made ballistic and cruise missile warheads, propulsion and guidance systems and air defense components, which match those used by Houthis to target ships in the Red Sea. 100 DAYS: Over the weekend, families of hostages being held by Hamas checked off a grim milestone: Their loved ones have been gone for more than 100 days. As the war drags on, family members told NatSec Daily that U.S. and Israeli officials need to do more. LIZ NAFTALI, the great aunt of 4-year-old ABIGAIL MOR EDAN who was released by Hamas in November, told NatSec Daily that she and other families have been working to “make sure that the Israeli government understands that we need to get these hostages.” They also plan to continue meeting with top Biden administration officials to keep the pressure up. “The empathy and support that the State Department, the FBI and leadership has shown to the families in America has been good, but it hasn't produced more hostages released” in two months, Naftali said. “Until we see these hostages come home, we have not succeeded — we have failed.” GILLIAN KAYE, the stepmother of hostage SAGUI DEKEL-CHEN, told us that all the families that have been advocating for the releases are “exhausted and numb.” Family members haven’t been sleeping or eating enough as they’ve given up their lives to bring loved ones back. “We have had incredibly positive support from the U.S. administration,” she said. But as the clock keeps ticking, “we're pushing for more and more from everyone.” AUSTIN RELEASED: Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN was released from the hospital on Monday following surgery for complications related to his prostate cancer: “Now, as I continue to recuperate and perform my duties from home, I’m eager to fully recover and return as quickly as possible to the Pentagon,” he said in a statement. IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | |   | | | | | DON AT DAVOS, IN SPIRIT: Speaking of Davos, world leaders gathered there just can’t get DONALD TRUMP off their mind, worrying that he’ll be even more anti-global if he returns as president. As Trump was being crowned winner of the Republican Iowa caucus Monday night, power brokers were gathering over canapés and drinks for the opening event of this year’s World Economic Forum, our own SUZANNE LYNCH and ZACHARY WARMBRODT reported Monday. A former senior Trump administration official told them that the Davos attendees were correct that Trump’s policy in a second term would impede their work. Trump ally Sen. J.D. VANCE (R-Ohio) also told our colleagues that the global elite “should be afraid of him,” adding that “if Trump stands for anything, I think it's the rejection of their ideology, of the material benefits that come from it.” Read: Europe prepares to stand alone as Trump returns by our own EDDY WAX and JAMES ANGELOS
| | LONGEST GAZA BLACKOUT: Palestinians in the Gaza Strip have been cut off from the internet for 96 hours, the longest blackout since the war began, according to watchdog organization NetBlocks. “The disruption is the longest sustained telecoms disruption on record since the onset of the conflict, with most residents unable to contact the outside world since” Friday, the group tweeted today. Gaza’s internet accessibility has been a major concern amid Israel’s persistent airstrikes that have leveled the territory’s infrastructure. In a tweet on Monday, NetBlocks warned that the blackout “is likely to significantly limit visibility into events on the ground.”
| | LOSING TRUSS: Former U.K. Prime Minister LIZ TRUSS secretly lobbied the British government to “expedite” the sale of defense equipment to China, according to documents obtained by our own GRAHAM LANKTREE. In a private letter dated August 2023, Truss, who casts herself as the most high-profile China hawk on the Tory backbenches, asked Business and Trade Secretary KEMI BADENOCH to intervene on behalf of a British defense manufacturer hoping to sell military equipment to China. U.K. security officials had blocked Richmond Defence Systems — a defense firm based in Truss' Norfolk constituency — from exporting landmine disposal equipment to the People's Republic of China. Experts say the equipment could be used by Beijing in an invasion of Taiwan.
| | | FREEZING OUT ISRAEL: Senators are set to vote today on a resolution that would freeze all U.S. military assistance to Israel as skepticism of Israel’s military operation in Gaza grows on Capitol Hill, The New York Times’ KAROUN DEMIRJIAN reports. Assistance would be halted unless the State Department produces a report within 30 days examining whether Israel committed human rights violations throughout the war. It’s unlikely the measure — forced to the floor by Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.) — will pass since support for Israel is still widespread on both sides of the aisle, but it reflects progressives’ persistent queasiness with standing by Israel without scrutinizing its actions. “There is growing concern among the American people and in Congress that what Israel is doing now is not a war against Hamas, but a war against the Palestinian people,” Sanders told the Times. “That with American military aid, children are starving to death, is to me — I mean, I just don’t know what adjectives I can use. It’s disgraceful. And I think I’m not the only one who feels that.”
| | | | A REPORTER V. THE WHITE HOUSE: Journalists were stunned over the weekend when the White House claimed that AKBAR SHAHID AHMED, a senior diplomatic correspondent for HuffPost, made up quotes from U.S. officials about the administration’s plan for Gaza after the war. After a weekend butting heads with National Security Council spokespeople, Ahmed wants to get on with his life — after he gets an apology and a retraction from them. “I just want to do my job,” he told NatSec Daily, telling us that the NSC has called reporters and congressional offices to damage his credibility as a reporter and harm his relationship with sources. A NSC spokesperson told NatSec Daily that both of those allegations aren’t true. The biggest divide came after National Security Council spokesperson ADRIENNE WATSON told Ahmed that his story was “not true” and included “made up quotes from U.S. officials.” The NSC later clarified, telling Semafor that the comment referred to one part of the story in which Ahmed cited a document that detailed a plan for a “victory tour” if the U.S. can help normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. “The article in question purports to characterize what the reporter describes as a ‘Top Secret’ document. It also quotes from that purported document, ascribing those quotes to a senior U.S. official,” the NSC said in an emailed statement. “Those quotes appear nowhere in any document that we have prepared and have never been stated by anyone at the National Security Council. We stand by our comment.” NEW TERRORIST LABEL: Islamist group Hizb ut-Tahrir will be labeled a terrorist organization in the United Kingdom under plans unveiled by British Home Secretary JAMES CLEVERLY on Monday, our own BETHANY DAWSON reported. ICYMI — EU’s Breton accuses Germany of going ‘solo’ on Ukraine aid by our own GIORGIO LEALI
| | — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: SEAN KIRKPATRICK, the former director of the Pentagon’s All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office, is now providing strategic scientific and intelligence consulting services under Nonlinear Solutions. — Taiwan elected LAI CHING-TE, a member of Taiwan’s pro-independence party who has faced strong opposition from China, as its new president over the weekend. After the election, Biden said the U.S. does “not support independence,” but favors dialogue between Taipei and Beijing and expects differences to be resolved peacefully and without coercion. — Deputy U.S. Trade Representative SARAH BIANCHI will soon step down, and USTR KATHERINE TAI will name her senior adviser, JAMILA THOMPSON, as the new acting chief of staff, people familiar told our own friends at Weekly Trade. — HU HAIFENG, the son of former Chinese President HU JINTAO, was appointed today by the cabinet as a vice minister of civil affairs, per Reuters’ RYAN WOO. He previously served as the head of the Communist Party of the city of Lishui in Zhejiang province. — MICHAEL TURNER, founder Turner Global Solutions, has joined Crestview Strategy, an international public affairs and government relations agency, as senior adviser. He was previously a spokesperson for U.S. Embassy Beijing.
| | — KELLY GRIECO and JENNIFER KAVANAGH, Foreign Affairs: America can’t surpass China’s power in Asia — NATHALIE TOCCI, POLITICO: Red Sea: Time to treat the cause, not the symptom — NATALIYA GUMENYUK, The New York Times: Putin is making his plans brutally clear
| | — The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, 9 a.m.: Securing cislunar space and the first island off the coast of Earth — The Henry L. Stimson Center, 9:30 a.m.: Bias in nuclear security implementation — House Science, Space and Technology Space and Aeronautics Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: Returning to the moon: keeping Artemis on track — House Foreign Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: Examining the flow of U.S. money into China's military might — Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: The Cyber Safety Review Board: expectations, outcomes and enduring questions — Nuclear Threat Initiative, 11 a.m.: Putin’s war and Putin’s world with ROLF MOWATT-LARSSEN — The Hudson Institute, 12 p.m.: National defense implications of the federal budget challenge — House Foreign Affairs Indo-Pacific Subcommittee, 2 p.m.: Protecting emerging technologies for peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific — The Institute of World Politics, 5 p.m.: Private investment as a critical support to U.S. national security Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who benefits from an active conflict with us. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who always turns down the temperature in time.
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