| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Eugene Daniels and Rachael Bade | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | TICK TOCK — “Senate clears first hurdle to thwart partial government shutdown,” by Caitlin Emma and Jennifer Scholtes: “Any one senator could hold things up and cause a delay, risking a brief weekend shutdown.” 'JUNK FEES' LATEST — “U.S. unveils plan to limit overdraft fees amid banking industry opposition,” by WaPo’s Tony Romm: “The new draft rules, unveiled by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, could cap some of the charges as low as $3, part of a suite of potential changes meant to aid low-income Americans that are most at risk of racking up substantial debts.”
|  President Joe Biden speaks during a campaign event at Montgomery County Community College Jan. 5, 2024, in Blue Bell, Pennsylvania. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images | 50 DAYS — President JOE BIDEN is entering one of the most perilous periods of his presidency, both domestically and globally, with the next 50 days determining the contours of his chances at reelection. By the time he delivers the State of Union on March 7, some of the biggest unknown questions of 2024 should be answered: whether a government shutdown will be averted, who the GOP nominee will be, what the Supreme Court will say about major issues in the Trump prosecutions, whether the war in the Middle East will spiral further out of control, and, perhaps dearest to Biden’s heart, whether the United States will continue aiding the defense of Ukraine. Biden has a big decision to make on that issue, and it’s his major focus today as the political press briefly turns its attention away from the Republican presidential primaries and back towards the legislative scramble in Washington. Talks in the Senate on a border security deal necessary to unlock over $110 billion in aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan have been inching along. But with no agreement in hand, and existing funds for Ukraine nearly exhausted, Biden is dramatically stepping up his personal involvement in the negotiations and inviting congressional leaders to the White House for a 3:15 p.m. meeting today in the Cabinet Room. We’re told the session will focus more on the urgency of getting money out the door to help Ukraine than it will on the nitty-gritty of asylum policy. (By inviting the leaders of key national security committees, the White House is emphasizing Ukraine rather than the border.) But expect Speaker MIKE JOHNSON, who is facing a revolt from the right over government funding, to maintain his position that H.R. 2 — the hard-line immigration bill that has no prospect of passage in the Senate — is the House GOP price for a Ukraine deal. There are lots of reasons to bet against Washington reforming any aspect of the immigration system, but there are glimmers of hope: Sen. JAMES LANKFORD (R-Okla.) told CNN yesterday that negotiators are still targeting release of the deal text this week, though “little technical things” continue to complicate that. In Davos, national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN also remained bullish this week. “I continue to believe and express confidence that we will … after a lot of twists and turns ultimately get there,” he said during remarks yesterday after meeting with Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY. And the Biden meeting itself is a sign of progress. If Biden doesn’t have anything substantive to offer the leaders, why march them down Pennsylvania Avenue and highlight the lack of progress? A person close to the talks tells Playbook that after weeks of resistance, “the White House has been trying to find a compromise on parole,” the presidential authority that Biden has used expansively to temporarily admit some classes of migrants and that Republicans want to curtail. The source added that it’s been rather difficult to find language that both preserves the current Biden parole programs and satisfies Republicans. Reporters waiting outside the West Wing will surely press congressional leaders on what Biden had to say on the fraught issue. Others we talked to were skeptical that any border business will get done today: If “the border negotiators won’t be there,” another person close to the talks said, “there won’t be any movement expected on a border deal.”
| | A message from the National Retail Federation: Every January, NRF convenes the most extraordinary retail industry leaders and partners in New York City for its annual conference and expo. NRF 2024: Retail’s Big Show will bring together 40,000 people from 6,200 brands and 100 countries for three days of learning, collaboration and discovery. Retail leaders will connect with 1,100 students at the NRF Foundation Student Program, and the industry will celebrate visionary individuals shaping retail’s future at the NRF Foundation Honors. Learn more. | | | Biden has been consistent that he was willing to make significant concessions. “I think we have to make major changes at the border,” he told reporters on Saturday. “I’ve been pushing it. I’m prepared to make significant alterations at the border. And there are negotiations going on for the last five weeks, so I’m hopeful we’ll get there.” Another sign of semi-progress: Senate Republican leaders are stepping up pressure on Johnson to pass any deal the Senate sends over, arguing that this is a unique opportunity for the right that won’t come again anytime soon, even if Republicans take the Senate in 2024. “There’s absolutely no way that we would get the kind of border policy that’s been talked about right now with a Republican majority in the Senate, unless we get a 60-vote majority, which isn’t going to happen,” Sen. JOHN THUNE (R-S.D.) tells our Burgess Everett. Sen. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas) also told Burgess that Gov. GREG ABBOTT, one of the most hardline immigration hawks in the country, indicated to Cornyn that he was in favor of a deal this year rather than holding on to the issue for election purposes. “So we’re just supposed to take this flow of humanity across the border for the next year?” Abbott said, according to Cornyn. NYT’s Erica Green and Michael Shear smartly note that the White House meeting, which will be stacked with a bipartisan group of pro-Ukraine congressional leaders, is also about pressuring Johnson, who attended a similar White House meeting in October and “emerged from the meeting saying that Ukraine’s plight would not be forgotten.” Finally, Biden is getting some political advice on the issue from an unlikely source. ANDERS FOGH RASMUSSEN, the former secretary general of NATO and former Danish PM, told our colleague Matt Berg that Biden should cut a deal: “‘If I were in the leadership of the Democratic campaign, I would not hesitate to close this issue — to accommodate Republicans to make it a non-issue in the coming election campaign,’ he said. Rasmussen, who was right-of-center in Danish politics, is in Washington and is planning to meet with members of the Freedom Caucus to make the case for aiding Ukraine. But he said the imperatives for a deal go beyond the need to continue helping a key ally, given the front-row seat he’s had to the European backlash to governments that have failed to address migration. “‘If you do not address the immigration issue and the border issue effectively, then you will fuel extremists,’ he said, adding: ‘On both sides of the political spectrum.’” Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from the National Retail Federation:   Every day, NRF stands up for the people, policies and ideas that help retail succeed. Learn more. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate is in. The House will meet at 10 a.m. to consider border security legislation, with first votes expected at 1:30 p.m. and last votes expected at 4:30 p.m. 3 things to watch …
- Whither the big tax deal announced yesterday, pairing an expansion of the Child Tax Credit with extensions for a host of corporate incentives? The compromise hatched by House Ways and Means Chair JASON SMITH (R-Mo.) and Senate Finance Chair RON WYDEN (D-Ore.) is generating lots of chatter but isn’t yet on the legislative fast track. Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER endorsed it yesterday but there’s lots in there for both liberal Democrats and conservative Republicans to hate.
- If you want a precise accounting of the Senate’s Israel-skeptic bloc, you got pretty close last night: Only 10 other senators joined BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.) in voting for his resolution demanding a human rights investigation into Israel’s war with Hamas. They included nine of the Senate’s most liberal Democrats plus Sen. RAND PAUL (R-Ky.), and while a few additional lawmakers offered sympathy for the effort, it’s not a good sign for congressional efforts to curb or condition future U.S. aid to Israel.
- Could HUNTER BIDEN testify before the House after all? Plans for votes on contempt measures were postponed yesterday due to the snow in Washington, but House Oversight Chair JAMES COMER (R-Ky.) said the vote is now being pushed to Thursday at the earliest amid a new attempt to secure the cooperation of the president’s son. “But, look, if they don't give us a date in the next few weeks, then we will proceed with contempt,” Comer said last night on Newsmax.
At the White House Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief in the morning and welcome congressional leaders to the White House for a meeting at 3:15 p.m. Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE and JOHN KIRBY will brief at 1:30 p.m. VP KAMALA HARRIS in the morning will depart D.C. en route to NYC, where she is scheduled to appear on ABC’s “The View.” She will return to D.C. in the evening.
| | | | YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | 2024 WATCH
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Supporters cheer as Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign event in Atkinson, N.H., Jan. 16, 2024. | Matt Rourke/AP | THE IOWA AUTOPSY REPORT — A day removed from the Iowa caucuses, a handful of stories provide a more complete picture of how the victor performed in the margins — and how the runner-up found himself in a distant second place. Data deep dive … Our colleagues Jessica Piper and Steve Shepard analyzed the Iowa caucus results and found some warning signs amid his otherwise dominant performance: “He showed striking weakness in suburban and urban areas: In more than three dozen precincts in the suburbs, Trump received less than a quarter of the vote, even while achieving blowout wins of 90-plus percent of votes cast in a similar number of rural precincts. That pattern, hidden under Trump’s commanding overall performance, echoes a trend that has bedeviled Republicans over the past few election cycles.” Anatomy of a fall … The Messenger’s Marc Caputo dives into the nitty-gritty of how RON DeSANTIS came up short with a distant second-place finish despite high hopes and huge expenditures of time and money in the Hawkeye State: “There’s dispute about whether Trump was ever beatable in a GOP primary. But there’s little disagreement among connected political pros about the multiple problems with the campaign of DeSantis, an aloof not-ready-for-primetime candidate who didn’t know what he didn’t know and was arrogant about it, according to more than a dozen insiders.” The 30,000-foot view … “How Trump dominated Iowa — and held back DeSantis and Haley,” by WaPo’s Josh Dawsey, Michael Scherer and Hannah Knowles in Des Moines: “The former president proved he could learn to play a game he once ignored. The all-star Florida governor struggled with a national-league learning curve. And the former diplomat overcame long odds with a big bet on her own charisma.” More top reads:
- ABC officially canceled its planned Thursday GOP presidential debate in New Hampshire yesterday after NIKKI HALEY conditioned her participation on Trump or Biden committing to join the debate stage. More from NYT’s Neil Vigdor and Chris Cameron
- As Haley turns her attention to New Hampshire, she is doing so with Trump squarely in her sights. Yesterday, the former South Carolina governor’s campaign and one of her super PACs began promoting TV ads depicting Trump as a bully and a liar, while her team released a memo calling the former president “more vulnerable than commonly believed,” our colleagues Lisa Kashinsky and Natalie Allison report from Manchester. Related read: “Haley Looks to New Hampshire With a Focus on Independents,” by NYT’s Nick Corasaniti
- New from NY Mag’s Jonathan Chait: “Do You Remember The Ecstasy Of Electing Joe Biden? The coalition that formed in 2020 with the purpose of defeating Donald Trump is exhausted, divided, and falling apart— and it seems increasingly unlikely that Biden can capture that magic again.”
- Trump leads Biden head-to-head in Georgia, 45% to 37%, according to a new Atlanta-Journal Constitution poll. “The poll showed nearly 20% of Georgians weren’t ready to support either candidate,” AJC’s Greg Bluestein and Michelle Baruchman write.
JUDICIARY SQUARE
|  A view of the U.S. Supreme Court on Jan. 4, 2024, in Washington. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images | DEFINING DEFERENCE — Today, the Supreme Court will hear arguments on whether to overturn its “Chevron deference” doctrine — a step that would kneecap the power of federal agencies to set all manner of policies and deliver a long-desired outcome for legal conservatives, our colleagues Alex Guillén and Josh Gerstein write. The nuts and bolts: “Named after the 1984 Supreme Court case in which it was articulated, the doctrine says that when a law Congress has passed is ambiguous, judges should defer to an agency’s interpretation if it’s reasonable. The idea was to prevent judges from second-guessing often-technical decisions by agencies with expertise. In the decades since, Chevron has become one of the high court’s most-cited cases and a regular part of rulings over government actions.” The context: “A broad ruling against agency power would be a potent victory for business interests and other foes of regulation. And it would be sure to hinder the policymaking power of Joe Biden and his successors, because presidents — especially Democrats — have increasingly tried to use ambitious agency regulations to achieve their goals in the face of a calcified Congress.” More top reads:
| | | | A message from the National Retail Federation:   We are retail’s greatest advocates, uniting an industry of leaders and boundary breakers around complex issues and bold opportunities. Learn more. | | | TRUMP CARDS
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In this courtroom sketch, former President Donald Trump turns to look at an anonymous prospective juror in Federal Court, in New York, Jan. 16, 2024. | Elizabeth Williams/AP | BACK IN THE COURTROOM — After a convincing victory in Iowa on Monday, Trump went back to the courtroom, observing the selection of a Manhattan jury that will determine how much money he should pay E. JEAN CARROLL, who has already won two trials against Trump, our colleague Erica Orden reports from New York. The scene inside: “During the jury selection process, Trump repeatedly craned his neck or turned around to observe people as they responded to certain questions, including one about whether any prospective jurors believed the 2020 presidential election was stolen. (Neither of the two who said yes was selected for the nine-person jury.)” More top reads:
- A federal appeals court said yesterday it won’t reconsider a ruling that allowed special counsel JACK SMITH to access private communications from Trump’s Twitter account, Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney write. “But … the court’s conservative judges united to scold their liberal colleagues and the lower-court judge who initially decided the case. Those prior rulings, the conservatives said, amounted to a significant, unjustified erosion of executive privilege.”
- Trump is also inserting himself into the disbarment proceedings against JEFF CLARK, his former DOJ ally, “raising the specter that the former president will attempt to assert executive privilege to block crucial testimony from senior administration officials — or force months of litigation on the matter,” Kyle and Josh write.
THE WHITE HOUSE AUSTIN EMERGENCY CALL AUDIO — When Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN was hospitalized earlier this month, the DOD aide who placed the call “requested that the dispatchers work to be ‘subtle’ when they arrived at his residence,” The Daily Beast’s Shannon Vavra reports. What was said: “‘Can I ask — can the ambulance not show up with lights and sirens? Uhm, we’re trying to remain a little subtle,’ the aide said, according to the recording, which The Daily Beast obtained through a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request in the state of Virginia.” Listen to the audio, via USA Today’s Nick Penzenstadler and Tom Vanden Brook MORE POLITICS FAMILY BUSINESS — NELLA DOMENICI, the daughter of late former Sen. PETE DOMENICI, announced a bid to unseat Democratic Sen. MARTIN HEINRICH in New Mexico, our colleague Ally Mutnick reports. “New Mexico is not swingy territory. … Heinrich won his last reelection in 2018 by more than 30 points. But her father’s legacy gives the GOP a credible recruit in a region that could not otherwise be in play.” AMERICA AND THE WORLD MIDDLE EAST LATEST — U.S. military forces in the region yesterday “carried out a new military strike against Houthi ballistic missiles in Yemen,” NYT’s Eric Schmitt and Saeed Al-Batati report, noting that the “latest salvo against the Iran-backed group left the White House grappling with how to stop a battle-hardened foe from disrupting shipping lanes critical for global trade. The “drumbeat of tit-for-tat incidents,” WaPo’s Missy Ryan, Dan Lamothe, Susannah George and Mustafa Salim write, is offering “a test of Washington’s attempt to limit regional instability and avoid a direct confrontation with Tehran. The incidents also highlight the potential for miscalculation as military action accelerates and the United States continues support for close ally Israel.” The administration is also planning today to “put the Houthi rebel group back on one of its lists of terrorist organizations,” WSJ’s Vivian Salama and Daniel Nasaw report. “The placement … reverses a decision made early in President Biden’s term to remove the Houthis from the list over concerns it hurt prospects for peace talks and further crippled the economy of an impoverished nation at risk of famine.” BEYOND THE BELTWAY STATE OF THE STATES — If you want to know the policy areas that statehouses across the country will be focusing on in 2024, our colleagues have a must-read roundup of all the top targets for the most influential debates that are set to unfold from the fields of immigration to health care to technology. “Given red and blue states will be charting wildly divergent paths, the policy experiments being conducted in the laboratories of democracy will likely end up further splintering the country.” Related read: “Gavin Newsom spikes youth tackle football ban,” by Eric He and Rachel Bluth in Sacramento
| | | | CONGRESS OVERDRIVE: Since day one, POLITICO has been laser-focused on Capitol Hill, serving up the juiciest Congress coverage. Now, we’re upping our game to ensure you’re up to speed and in the know on every tasty morsel and newsy nugget from inside the Capitol Dome, around the clock. Wake up, read Playbook AM, get up to speed at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report, and fuel your nightly conversations with Inside Congress in the evening. Plus, never miss a beat with buzzy, real-time updates throughout the day via our Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Chuck Grassley is hospitalized for an infection but is expected to make a full recovery. Mike Johnson raked in a hefty fundraising haul in his first quarter as speaker. Cornel West delivered a sharp rebuke to Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for his comments about the wiretap of MLK Jr. Dean Phillips removed a DEI reference from his campaign site, likely prompted by his affiliation with Bill Ackman. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The University of Chicago Institute of Politics is announcing its winter-spring fellows: former Trump White House COS and Rep. Mick Mulvaney, former Rep. Jackie Speier (D-Calif.), former Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot, former Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey, Lynn Sweet, Simone Campbell, Matt Gorman and Gerardo Bonilla Chavez. — The Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics is announcing its spring 2024 resident fellows: Josh Gerstein, Kostas Bakoyannis, former Rep. Jeff Denham (R-Calif.), Will Hurd, Alison King, Grisella M. Martinez and Erika Mouynes. Former Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards will be a visiting fellow. — Husch Blackwell Strategies is launching HBS Public Affairs, bringing on Marianna Deal and Kirsty McDonald to lead the practice. Deal will be chair and most recently was senior adviser for comms for Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.). McDonald will be president and most recently was principal at Two Skies Group. COMING ATTRACTIONS — Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.) and Rep. Lisa McClain (R-Mich.) will be the headlining speakers at the Washington Press Club Foundation’s 78th annual Congressional Dinner on Wednesday, Jan. 31, where Janet Hook will be honored with a lifetime achievement award. TRANSITIONS — Deirdre Hanford will be the first CEO of Natcast, the expected operator of the CHIPS for America National Semiconductor Technology Center. She previously has been chief security officer at Synopsys. More from WaPo … Alex Sopko is now director of government relations and public engagement for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which will be hosted by the U.S. She most recently was chief of staff for the Office of Intergovernmental Affairs at the White House. … Michael Turner is now senior adviser at Crestview Strategy. He is founder of Turner Global Solutions and a U.S. Embassy Beijing alum. … … Brian Barrett is joining Sentinel as political director. He most recently ran Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s absentee and early vote program and is a Brian Kemp alum. … Sean Kirkpatrick is now providing strategic scientific and intelligence consulting services under Nonlinear Solutions. He was previously director of the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office under the deputy secretary of Defense. … Jonah Goldman is now head of external affairs and impact at Generate Capital. He most recently was senior adviser for public affairs at the company and senior adviser at Boston Consulting Group and previously built and led the Bill Gates-founded Breakthrough Energy. ENGAGED — Chris Beckmann, a first-year student at Stanford business school, and Marie Baldassarre, comms director for Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), got engaged on Sunday at Half Moon Bay by the cliffs in California. The couple met on Hinge. Pic … Another pic WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Laura Schlapp, VP at CRC Advisors and a Mike Pence, DOD and Air Force alum, and Bryan Wells, director of government relations at Stanton Park Group and a Pat Roberts alum, on Dec. 28 welcomed Rory Marshall Wells, who joins big sister EJ. Pic … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Michelle Obama (6-0) … Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (7-0) … Reps. Carlos Gimenez (R-Fla.) (7-0) and Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.) … WaPo’s John Wagner … POLITICO’s Steve Shepard … Joanne Kenen … Tommy Joyce … Steve Rabinowitz of Bluelight Strategies … Precision Strategies’ Mike Spahn … Scott Goodstein … Al Shofe … Rachel Bovard … NBC’s Gabe Gutierrez … Daily Mail’s Nikki Schwab … Alyssa Franke … Hannah Ledford of the Fairness Project … Brookings’ Bill Galston … Robert Lewis Jr. … David Avella … CapitolWorks’ Chris Jones … Jeremy Pelofsky of FGS Global … Julie Alderman Boudreau … Amit Jani … CNN’s Kwegyirba Croffie … Elizabeth Hays Bradley ... Julie Barko Germany .… Karlygash Faillace … Alyssa Roberts ... Noelani Bonifacio ... Tegan Millspaw Gelfand ... John Seabrook … Mark Pieschel … Joseph Berger … Penta’s Rebecca Buck … Jenner & Block’s Sam Feder … North American Millers’ Association’s Kim Cooper … … Krista Drobac of Sirona Strategies … Maury Povich … Charlotte Rediker (2-0) … Patrick Butler of Kirkland & Ellis Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton, producer Andrew Howard and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook misidentified Sen. Bob Menendez’s party affiliation.
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