Missing in Davos

A daily look inside Canadian politics and power.
Jan 15, 2024 View in browser
 
Ottawa Playbook

By Nick Taylor-Vaisey

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Welcome to Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it.

In today’s edition: 

→ The global elite heads en masse to its favorite mountain getaway.

MARC MILLER attempted weekend damage control on the federal immigration file.

PIERRE POILIEVRE starts the week in Quebec after a weekend of barnstorming across northern Ontario.

THREE THINGS WE'RE WATCHING

The Davos Congress Centre, center, prepared for the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in 2020.

2024 marks the 54th gathering of the World Economic Forum. | AP Photo/Markus Schreiber

GLOBALISTS, UNITE — It's time for the annual Swiss Alps summit loathed by much of the Canadian right, dismissed by most of the Canadian left, and ignored by the Liberal government. The World Economic Forum’s Davos Days are upon us.

— The theme for 2024: WEF planners landed on "rebuilding trust" as the raison d'etre for this week's gathering of world leaders, international organizations, corporate honchos, NGO activists and assorted hangers-on among the global elite.

— No Canada: Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU and his Cabinet may be studiously avoiding the stage at the confab, but some of Trudeau's best friends in the world of summitry will be present for the Alp talks.

Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY will make an in-person speech.

So will European Commission President URSULA VON DER LEYEN, French President EMMANUEL MACRON, and Spanish PM PEDRO SÁNCHEZ.

U.S. climate envoy JOHN KERRY, who plans to quit the Biden administration in the coming months, is a fixture in Davos — popping up on six different panels.

— Spicy speech watch: Argentinian President JAVIER MILEI and Israeli President ISAAC HERZOG are also on the agenda.

— Notable influencer: Few Canadians are on the summit's program, but one staple of the five-day elite-a-thon will make an appearance: MARK CARNEY.

The two-time central banker will cover familiar turf in a Thursday session on monetary policy under attack in a fractious time. The pitch: "Amid transformative changes and challenges in the global economy, the standard monetary policy toolkit is under scrutiny. How can central banks adapt and innovate to ensure they remain effective stewards of the economy?"

POLITICO on the scene: POLITICO's Global Playbook will be working the rooms that matter in Davos, starting with a dispatch today. Subscribe here.

From POLITICO’s ZOYA SHEFTALOVICH today: The ‘dirty dozen’ of Davos.

And POLITICO's NAHAL TOOSI scoops that U.S. diplomats in Davos are unnerved by the size of the Chinese delegation in attendance.

On Tuesday, POLITICO hosts an Oxford-style debate on artificial intelligence. They'll tussle over this motion: “Keeping AI open will save humanity.”

Speakers include STUART RUSSELL, a computer science prof at University of California, Berkeley; REBECA MINGUELA, founder and CEO of Clarity AI; and MARIETJE SCHAAKE, international policy director of the Stanford University Cyber Policy Center.

POLITICO caps the week with a Davos Party on Thursday night.

STUDENT POLITICS — Immigration has barely caused a stir in mainstream political debates during a decades-long consensus on openness to newcomers. Canadians typically prioritize other issues when pollsters come calling: jobs, the economy, taxes, climate, debt and deficits.

But an entrenched housing crisis, coupled with an explosion in the number of non-permanent residents (including 900,000 students, by the government's own estimate), has jolted some corners of the commentariat into partially rethinking the status quo.

It's a sensitive conversation that has Ottawa in react mode.

— Case study: Here's a recent Bloomberg lede that reflects this emerging pivot.

"Canada’s current immigration policy — among the most open in the world — is now causing economic damage and needs to be reconsidered, according [to] the country’s top economists."

The bank economists who spoke last Thursday at the Economic Club of Canada weren't stoking anti-immigrant sentiment, but the mismatch between housing supply and the number of people who need somewhere to live is forcing the federal government's hand.

— Miller time: Immigration Minister MARC MILLER spent the weekend on a thread-needling exercise, pledging to address an eye-popping influx of temporary residents without demonizing them for a housing market that is freezing out a generation of aspiring homeowners.

Miller appeared on three weekend politics shows. He told VASSY KAPELOS on CTV’s Question Period that the "disconcerting" volume of international students arriving in Canada was evidence of "a system that has gotten out of control." He hinted at Cabinet's consideration of a cap on international students.

The minister attempted nuance in separate CBC appearances — on ROSEMARY BARTON Live and also on The House.

"Housing has and continues to be a concern, acutely so now in a post-Covid scenario, with the increase in interest rates, with supply challenges, but also just affordability challenges," he told Barton. "It isn't immigrants that raised interest rates, but volume is volume and it's something that we need to look at."

— Oh yeah, federalism: In each of the interviews, Miller referenced negotiations with provinces about their role in controlling the number of students who enrol in post-secondary institutions — and said the feds have gamed out potential reductions.

"We need to signal to [the provinces] that the bar is closed and we need to figure this out," he told The House. "And it's shared jurisdiction — the federal government is prepared to do something if they're not."

— The opposition says: Tory Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE promised last week at a Winnipeg news conference that his party would "make a link between the number of homes built and the number of people we invite as new Canadians.”

Poilievre, rallying across northern Ontario all weekend, took a dig at Housing Minister SEAN FRASER, one of his favorite Liberal foils. He claimed that Miller slammed Fraser, the former immigration minister, for failing to prevent the untenable situation.

— Don't forget: The Canadian Press reported that bureaucrats warned the government in 2022 of the unintended consequences of a major immigration boost. They have since increased annual targets. In a joint statement released Friday, Miller and Fraser credited newcomers for helping to fix a troubling post-pandemic labor shortage.

STRIKE WATCH — Five hundred public servants plan to go on strike today.

They work for Canadian Forces Morale and Welfare Services, a 4,000-strong agency intended to "build self-reliance, resilience, and readiness" of military members "by enhancing mental, social, physical, and financial well-being." They're members of the Union of National Defence Employees, an affiliate of the Public Service Alliance of Canada.

→ Useful context: The strikers don't work for the core public service or the Department of National Defence. They're employed as "Staff of the Non-Public Funds, Canadian Forces," a separate employer under law equivalent to other federal agencies.

— What do they do? Non-Public Funds staff work on Canadian Armed Forces bases across Canada. Their jobs include retail and food service, financial planning, and physical fitness and recreation programming.

— Why go on strike? Ninety-four percent of union members voted in favor of strike action last month. Wages are a key stumbling block in negotiations, which broke down last week. The union claims NPF staff are "some of the lowest paid federal public service workers in Canada and currently do not make the same as other workers doing the same jobs in the core federal public service."

Strike action is planned starting at 6:30 a.m. in Bagotville, Montreal, St-Jean and Valcartier in Quebec; and Kingston, Ottawa and Petawawa in Ontario.

Where the leaders are


— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in the National Capital Region with no public events on his schedule.

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Toronto. Her itinerary lists meetings with AMIRA ELGHAWABY, special representative on combating Islamophobia; DEBORAH LYONS, special envoy on preserving Holocaust remembrance and combating Antisemitism; and union leaders from across Canada.

— Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE has an 11:30 a.m. press conference in Saguenay, Que., before ending the day with a 6:30 p.m. “Common Sense” — not “Axe the Tax” — rally at the Hôtel Ambassadeur Québec in Quebec City.

— NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH is in British Columbia where he’ll spend some of the day doorknocking with JALEN BACHRA, a candidate for New Westminster School Board Trustee.

2024 WATCH

A person carries Trump signs by rowds of people lined up outside Simpson College and brave sub-zero temperatures the day before the Iowa caucuses to hear Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speak in Indianola, Iowa on Jan 14, 2023.

Tonight’s Iowa caucus is shaping up to be a romp for Donald Trump. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO

FIRST IN THE NATION — Iowa voters gather at community centers and school gyms across the state for the quadrennial Republican Party caucus. POLITICO has a primer on how they'll shake out and an evergreen explainer on how the heck caucuses work. Hint: They're not like primaries.

From The Toronto Star’s RICHARD WARNICA: The DONALD TRUMP show comes to Iowa — and the real 2024 race for the White House begins.

MEDIA ROOM


— From Robson Fletcher of CBC News this morning: Millions of Canadians get their carbon tax rebates today. So why do many not believe it? 

— Rob Drinkwater of The Canadian Press reports on the response from Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH and Saskatchewan Premier SCOTT MOE to electricity grid alerts over the weekend.

JOHN RUFFOLO shared this “absolute MUST READ” from JIM BALSILLIE in the National Post: “for anyone concerned about why Canada’s productivity and wealth as a nation continues to degrade.” Balsillie is chair of the Council of Canadian Innovators, of which Ruffolo is the co-founder.

— Here’s JASON KIRBY’s 2024 in charts — in case you missed his annual chartapalooza in the Globe. BEN RABIDOUX shared his contribution on X: “The single biggest policy failure of the past decade.”

— In an interview with VASSY KAPELOS, former PM JEAN CHRÉTIEN faced the inevitable question about when JUSTIN TRUDEAU should step away from politics: “It is for him to decide … what is the best for him, what is the best for the party, and what is the best for the country … And it's [a] very personal decision.”

“I think of it as a small province,” Mayor MARK SUTCLIFFE said of Ottawa in an interview with the Globe’s IAN BAILEY.

— From POLITICO’s STUART LAU in Taipei: Five things you need to know about WILLIAM LAI.

PROZONE


For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter by ZI-ANN LUM: Canada signals softer China stance.

In other news for Pro readers:

Climate activists call for pause on LNG export approvals.

Why the world could pass 1.5 C without knowing it.

Exxon leaves oil lobbying group over climate differences.

China's top climate diplomat Xie to retire, report says.

NOAA, NASA say 2023 was world’s hottest year, but 2024 could be warmer.

Playbookers


Birthdays: HBD to former MPs SHARON HAYES and MURRAY CALDER.

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way. 

Spotted: Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE’s team snatching a SPONGEBOB SQUAREPANTS graphic for a new political attack clip.

Sen. RODGER CUZNER, dropping a twospot at Timmie’s.

Movers and shakers: The Prime Minister's Office announced Friday that Gen. WAYNE EYRE, the chief of the defense staff, will retire this summer.

The PMO also announced a major shuffle of senior bureaucrats. Highlights:

NATHALIE DROUIN will become deputy clerk of the Privy Council, and she replaces the departing JODY THOMAS as national security and intelligence adviser.

→ Immigration DM CHRIS FOX becomes deputy clerk of the Privy Council and associate secretary to the Cabinet.

→ Canadian Food Inspection Agency President HARPREET KOCHHAR replaces Fox.

PAUL MACKINNON replaces Kochhar.

CATHERINE LUELO is now a senior official at PCO, where she'll advise on "digital transformation and information technology sector talent management."

HEATHER STEFANSON will step down as leader of the Manitoba Progressive Conservatives today. DAVID MCLAUGHLIN, a former senior bureaucrat in Manitoba, offered a blunt assessment: "A legacy unburdened by vision, accomplishment or, in the end, principles," he tweeted with a spicy followup: "Sadly, I know of what I speak. Saw from the inside. "

Squire Patton Boggs principal SARAH VILMS is lobbying on behalf of Compact Power, a subsidiary of which is building a battery manufacturing facility in Shawinigan, Que. — where the local MP happens to be Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE.

Government House Leader STEVEN MACKINNON wasn't officially bestowed that job's full title. Gould remains the GHL while she's on parental leave. The order-in-council codifying MacKinnon's interim role deems him minister of state (House of Commons).

Media mentions: PAUL WELLS has been honored with the 2024 Hyman Solomon Award for Excellence in Public Policy Journalism.

In memoriam: PETER RUSSELL was a legend not just at the University of Toronto, but also at the highest levels of politics in Canada,” STEVE PAIKIN writes in a tribute to the political scientist giant who died Jan. 10 at the age of 91. “The Judiciary in Canada” is the best textbook in Canadian political science,” shared political scientist IAN BRODIE, PM STEPHEN HARPER’s former chief of staff. The family’s guestbook is here.

We're tracking every major political event of 2024 on a mega-calendar. Send us events and download the calendar yourself for Google and other clients .

On the Hill


The House of Commons is back Jan. 29; the Senate returns Feb. 6.

Find House committees here.

Keep track of Senate committees here.

TRIVIA


Friday’s answer: The social studies teacher turned MP was DEB GRAY.

Props to DOUG RICE, JIM CAMPBELL, SHAUGHN MCARTHUR, PATRIC DION, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, MATTHEW CONWAY, GEORGE SCHOENHOFER, MARCEL MARCOTTE and BOB GORDON.

Today’s question: Name the president who signed the King Holiday Bill into law, designating the third Monday in January a U.S. federal holiday in observance of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.

Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

 

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