The border deal’s forgotten problem: Progressives

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Jan 17, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO Inside Congress

By Daniella Diaz and Ursula Perano

Presented by

Electronic Payments Coalition

With assists from POLITICO’s Congress team

Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) arrives for a press conference.

The problem is bigger in the House, where it’s still unclear whether Speaker Mike Johnson plans to put any Senate deal on the House floor. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

THE LEFT ISN’T FULLY SOLD ON THE BORDER DEAL

Senate negotiators are zeroing in on a bipartisan border agreement that could unlock long-stalled aid for Ukraine. As they get closer, Washington is hyper-focused on how House Republicans would treat it.

But progressives have a warning of their own: if the deal gives away too much, they’re ready to strike it down.

“Senate Democrats will not support a change in the laws on border policy that's incompatible with America's basic values,” said Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who added that Republicans are “making outlandish demands that they know that Democrats will never accept.”

Reminder of the challenge: Speaker Mike Johnson, even after a Wednesday afternoon meeting at the White House with top lawmakers, is insistent that the border deal include the House GOP’s hardline immigration bill — known as H.R. 2. Any deal that meets that benchmark, and possibly even one that comes close, is likely to lose some Democrats.

Why Democrats matter so much: Progressive opposition is somewhat perilous in the Senate. Over there, lead GOP negotiator James Lankford is aiming to win significantly more Republican votes than the 10 he would need to clear a filibuster.

If Lankford can swing that, and it’s a big if, losing a liberal vote or three wouldn’t be a death knell.

He should be prepared to lose several. Asked if a bloc of Senate Democrats would be ready to vote down the deal if it gives away too much, Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) quipped: “Better be.”

The problem is bigger in the House, where it’s still unclear whether Speaker Mike Johnson plans to put any Senate deal on the House floor. If he does, it’s easy to see a locked-in bloc of conservatives voting no – either because the proposal doesn’t incorporate all of H.R. 2, or out of blanket opposition to Ukraine aid, or for both reasons.

Which means Democrats would need to show up in big numbers.

But Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, said in an interview that an early whip count of her group’s roughly 100 House members revealed that they wouldn’t get behind any immigration legislation that is endorsed by Republicans.

“I think we should pound and humble Republicans on the fact that they're willing to let Russia win in Ukraine just because they want to pass bills that they couldn't even get passed in the House or the Senate if they had control,” Jayapal said.

Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin agreed that any border deal stringent enough to meet House Republicans’ demands would risk losing Democratic support: “That's why H.R. 2 as a demand by House Republicans puts us in a difficult position.”

Jayapal predicted that any immigration legislation endorsed by Republicans could actually undercut Democrats in key states ahead of November’s election.

“We're going to hurt immigrant communities and a progressive base that needs to see a difference between Donald Trump and Joe Biden on immigration,” she said. There is clearly a difference on many other things – but on immigration, which is the issue that animates a lot of folks in our progressive base and certainly immigrants in Georgia and Arizona … this is going to hurt us. Because we're not going to actually solve the problem that needs to be solved.”

TL;DR: Conservatives will stiff-arm any deal progressives can accept. Progressives will stiff-arm any deal conservatives can accept. So the prospects for a border deal actually making it to the president’s desk remain iffy, at best.

— Daniella Diaz and Ursula Perano

 

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GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Wednesday, Jan. 17, where we’re wondering – was your boss stuck in a flight debacle? Reach out anonymously to us!

GOP’S BIDEN IMPEACHMENT TO-DO LIST

House Republicans are nearing their self-imposed deadline on whether to pursue impeachment articles against President Joe Biden. They have a few more steps on their docket first.

GOP investigators are planning out their final interviews, including one with Hunter Biden. House Republicans are talking with his legal team and projecting confidence that they will get a closed-door deposition with him, pressing pause on a planned contempt vote against him.

They still have a handful of other individuals on the books, too, based on our talks Wednesday with Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and a person familiar with the schedule.

Those include:

  • Kevin Morris, an attorney who advises Hunter Biden, who is expected to come in for a closed-door deposition on Thursday. 
  • Hunter Biden business associates Mervyn Yan and Rob Walker, who Republicans subpoenaed last year, are expected to come in next week. 
  • Eric Schwerin, another business associate, is expected to come in the week of January 29. 

That’s not all: Jordan mentioned that they will be conducting another interview related to special counsel David Weiss’ federal investigation into Hunter Biden. Jordan said he also expected James Biden, Joe Biden’s brother, to come in for a deposition, though Jordan didn’t specify timing.

Republicans view Hunter Biden, in particular, as the key witness in their impeachment inquiry into Joe Biden, which has largely focused on the business deals of his family members. Though Republicans have found evidence of Hunter Biden trying to peddle influence using his last name, plus poked holes in previous statements by the president and the White House, they haven’t yet shown direct evidence that actions Biden took as president or vice president were meant to benefit his family’s business arrangements.

Reminder: Republicans had hoped to be ready to make a call on whether to draft impeachment articles as soon as this month, but some of the final interviews are likely to stretch into February.

And one note on another impeachment push: The House Homeland Security Committee is planning to mark up articles of impeachment against Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas on Jan. 31, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter. Led by Rep. Mark Green (R-Tenn.), Republicans on the panel are signaling confidence they'll have the votes to eject Mayorkas over his handling of the border, though right now they remain short.

— Jordain Carney, with an assist from Olivia Beavers

 

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MESSY RECRUITMENT WATCH 

Former Nevada state Treasurer Dan Schwartz launched a bid Wednesday for Democratic Rep. Susie Lee’s swingy Las Vegas-area seat — a notable development for a few reasons.

Heidi Kasama, the preferred pick of House GOP leaders, dropped out of the race suddenly earlier in January. That left former state GOP Sen. Elizabeth Helgelien, who has backing from Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), in the race.

Some party strategists are eager to see Schwartz block Helgelien, who resigned from the state senate in 2012 amid a messy divorce. Her daughter later pled guilty to murdering her father.

Schwartz plans to seed his bid with a $1 million investment.

— Ally Mutnick

PILOT PROGRAM AIMS TO FIX FLAG WOES

What’s something that constituents cherish but congressional staffers love to loathe? The gift of a U.S. flag, more than 100,000 per year, flown over the U.S. Capitol.

It’s a dizzying number of individual requests that staffers must track and execute. But there’s a new attempt to make it a bit easier — a pilot program that’s meant to streamline the process for staffers.

Modernization Subcommittee Chair Stephanie Bice (R-Okla.) and top Democrat Rep. Derek Kilmer (Wash.) are inviting House offices to join the program, called FlagTrack, a new tracking portal which also has a handy mobile app. (Here’s a video they’re using to hype it.)

How it works: The portal logs each request into a system that tracks the step-by-step process, alerting staffers when it’s time to pick up a flag or when they need to submit more information.

“Your feedback is key to helping us improve FlagTrack and address any issues before the program is launched House-wide,” reads a message from Bice and Kilmer. “We ask that you share your user experiences, as well as attend a few monthly feedback sessions.” The time commitment required is “minimal” per the Chief Administrative Officer.

— Katherine Tully-McManus

HUDDLE HOTDISH
 

A message from Electronic Payments Coalition:

CREDIT UNIONS & COMMUNITY BANKS IN All 50 STATES OPPOSE THE DURBIN-MARSHALL CREDIT CARD BILL: The Durbin-Marshall credit card bill would create new government mandates on credit cards that would put consumer data and access to credit at risk. The bill would benefit corporate mega-stores, like Walmart and Target, at the expense of Main Street and the 135 million Americans who rely on credit unions and community banks. The threat of Durbin-Marshall to small financial institutions is so clear that 9,600+ credit unions and community banks in America are opposed to the bill. They also see through the so-called “carve out” for smaller banks which is a hoax to try and buy their support. Their message to Congress is simple: on behalf of credit unions and community banks in all 50 states, commit to actively opposing the Durbin-Marshall credit card bill. Click here to learn more.

 

Julia Letlowthe kids are adorable!

Those fancy WellFound Foods vending machines Hill staffers love may be coming to Union Station in the spring (along with Van Leeuwen’s Ice Cream) according to the company that owns the transit hub.

QUICK LINKS 

'She's a killer': Trump eyes Rep. Elise Stefanik as a potential VP pick, from Brian Schwartz, Katherine Doyle and Scott Wong at NBC News

3 strong candidates want to be California’s next U.S. senator. Here’s our endorsement, from the California McClatchy editorial boards

Whitesides announces fundraising haul in hotly contested California House race, from Cassie Semyon at Spectrum News

Senate Republicans forge ahead on border bill over Speaker Johnson’s opposition, from Al Weaver at The Hill

Hakim, Meet Hakeem: How a Young City Farmer Got to Know a Congressman, from Mihir Zaveri at The New York Times

Congressional candidate in Colorado GOP primary was arrested for driving drunk, carrying gun in 2022, from Nick Coltrain

A Reporter’s Journey Into How the U.S. Funded the Bomb, from Catie Edmondson at The New York Times

TRANSITIONS 

Corry Schiermeyer is now communications director for Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas). She most recently led comms for the Energy Workforce & Technology Council.

TOMORROW IN CONGRESS

The House and Senate are in session.

THURSDAY AROUND THE HILL

2 p.m. Rep. Chris Smith, Pro Life Caucus on the services provided by Pregnancy Resource Centers. (House Triangle)

TRIVIA

TUESDAY’S ANSWER: Joe Bookman correctly answered that 1932 was the year the first woman elected to the US Senate. Hattie Caraway of Arkansas became the first woman to win election to the Senate in 1932, and the first to chair a Senate committee. (Key word here was elected!)

TODAY’S QUESTION, from Joe: Which President signed the bill to create the Department of Transportation and who was the first Secretary of Transportation?

The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Inside Congress. Send your answers to insidecongress@politico.com.

GET INSIDE CONGRESS emailed to your phone each evening.

Follow Daniella on X at @DaniellaMicaela.

 

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