HOW IT GOES DOWN — Unlike primary election nights, there’s no “polls close” time that we’re watching. Rather it’s the caucus start time: 8 p.m. ET. At that point, Iowans need to be at their designated caucus site. But voting doesn’t start right away — a chair needs to be elected to lead the meeting, and then representatives from the campaigns will be invited to give their last pitches to voters. Participants then cast their ballots by writing down their candidate of choice, and ballots are counted in the room. Once they are all tallied, results are reported to the Iowa Republican Party. The timing in which results come in will depend on the size of the precinct. Some of the smaller ones could be around an hour after the caucus starts, while larger areas could take longer. TURNOUT TROUBLES? — A once-in-a-decade blizzard shut down many candidate events over the weekend. Caucus night is expected to be one of the coldest on record. But will that keep caucus-goers home? Iowans are quick to point out that they are used to this type of weather. And the Iowa Republican Party brushed off turnout concerns, saying that “ultimately Iowans are well acclimated to Midwest winters, and understand what’s at stake for our country.” “Although we understand concerns about the weather, Iowa has held its First-in-the-Nation Caucus for nearly 50 years through rain, snow, and freezing temperatures,” Iowa Republican Party spokesperson Kush Desai said in a statement to Score. “The 2024 Caucus will not be an exception.” Mother Nature throwing a wrench in the caucuses will be a true test of a campaign’s ground game. Trump’s campaign has begun signing up drivers with 4-wheel-drive cars in key areas to shuttle supporters to caucus sites and is relying on its network of local precinct captains to turn people out, Meridith McGraw and Adam report on the (cold) ground in Iowa. DeSantis’ operation has focused on Iowa for months and also has a robust ground network to rely on. For context, over 180,000 people showed up to the last contested Republican Iowa caucus in 2016, and around 120,000 turned out in 2012. TALES FROM THE TRAIL — The last full day of campaigning on Sunday was busy for the presidential hopefuls. Here are some highlights: … Trump held a packed rally on Sunday that was interrupted by protesters. … Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) isn’t officially endorsing before the caucus, but praised Haley while introducing her at an event on Sunday. “She's inspiring so many people across the state of Iowa, inspiring them so much to get out and support her in the caucuses,” Ernst said. … DeSantis played down the results of the Des Moines Register poll at a Sunday stop. "If ifs and buts were candy and nuts, every day would be Christmas," he said. “I like being the underdog, I think that that's better.” A bundler for DeSantis’ campaign told Kimberly Leonard that the governor will not drop out, no matter what happens in Iowa tonight. … Trump attacked Ramaswamy on Saturday, warning voters not to “waste your vote” by voting for Ramaswamy. His criticism was sparked by Ramaswamy, who has gone out of his way to defend Trump, sharing a photo with a group of supporters wearing shirts with Trump's mugshot that said "Save Trump. Vote Vivek.” ON THE OTHER SIDE — Iowa Democrats are not taking part in the traditional caucus system, thanks to the Democratic National Committee’s reordering of its presidential nominating calendar. Democrats in Iowa are still gathering tonight — just not to pick a president. They’ll be conducting party business instead. Voters are mailing in their presidential choices and the results will be released on March 5. But that might not stop Democrats from casting a vote on Monday. Caucuses are closed, meaning that a voter must be registered with the party to participate. But voters are allowed to register as a Republican up until the day of the caucus, so Democrats (and unaffiliated voters) can switch their affiliation to vote for a GOP candidate. Some Republicans are expecting that Democrats will do this, and suggest it could be a boon for Haley as Democrats look to thwart Trump. Half of those who plan to caucus for Haley are Democrats or independents, according to the Des Moines Register poll. THE ROAD AHEAD — All eyes are on Iowa right now, but they’ll quickly move over to New Hampshire the rest of this week. Candidates traditionally head directly to New Hampshire after the Iowa caucuses, but DeSantis is taking his campaign to South Carolina — Haley’s home state, Lisa Kashinsky and Alex Isenstadt report. But it will be a quick trip to the Palmetto State: He’ll be back in New Hampshire by Tuesday evening. Trump is scheduled to be in New Hampshire on Wednesday and throughout the weekend, and Republican Gov. Chris Sununu, who endorsed Haley, is “planning the final stretch of the New Hampshire race as though it was one of his own campaigns,” The Washington Post’s Maeve Reston writes. ENDORSEMENT CORNER — Former Republican Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan endorsed Haley on Sunday. “I believe Nikki Haley is the strongest chance for us to put forth our best possible candidate for November,” he said. Hogan recently stepped down from leadership of No Labels, the group trying to get a third-party centrist candidate on the ticket. … Trump raked in more endorsements in the days leading up to the caucuses. North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, a former primary competitor, endorsed him at an event on Sunday in Iowa, noting that “none of the other [former] presidential primary candidates have done” the same. Trump also got some more members of Congress to back him, including Sens. Marco Rubio (Fla.), Mike Lee (Utah) and Jim Risch (Idaho). Members of the House, including leadership, have lined up behind Trump for months, while Republicans in the Senate have been a bit slower to support him. More than 20 senators have announced their endorsement of the former president. Trump now has a majority of congressional GOP support.
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