| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Eugene Daniels and Rachael Bade | Presented by ACLI, Finseca, IRI, NAFA and NAIFA | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | FIRST IN PLAYBOOK I — SFA Fund, the pro-NIKKI HALEY Super PAC, is going up on the air in Iowa with a new ad attacking RON DeSANTIS for the years he allegedly spent “trying to court China” as Florida governor. Watch it here Of course, any attack ad usually hints at a vulnerability by the attacker. In this case, it’s that for all of Haley’s recent momentum, she hasn’t overtaken DeSantis in Iowa, where he has a three-point lead over the former South Carolina governor and U.N. ambassador, according to FiveThirtyEight's polling average. (They each trail Trump by over 30 points.) This ongoing fight for second place has meant that neither Haley nor DeSantis has been able to focus exclusively on the frontrunner. Haley and DeSantis are likely to be the only two candidates onstage at the CNN debate at Drake University in Des Moines a week from tomorrow. The deadline to qualify is noon today, and only Trump, Haley, and DeSantis meet CNN’s polling qualifications, which require hitting 10% in three CNN-approved Iowa and/or national surveys. (Trump, of course, is likely to skip the debate.) FIRST IN PLAYBOOK II — The DCCC’s independent expenditure arm is going up today with its first ad in the special election created by the expulsion of GOP Rep. GEORGE SANTOS, a seven-figure broadcast and cable buy in the pricey New York City media market. Watch it here The Feb. 13 election in the 3rd District pits Republican MAZI PILIP, a member of the Nassau County Legislature, against Democrat TOM SUOZZI, the former House member seeking a comeback after a failed gubernatorial run. It’s worth paying attention to the messaging, as this is the first major expenditure of 2024 by Democrats targeting a swing area of the country. The ad is called “Handpicked” and opens with a montage of LAUREN BOEBERT, MIKE JOHNSON, MATT GAETZ, and MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE — the “MAGA Republican movement” which allegedly “handpicked” Pilip as the Republican nominee in the race. The ad charges that Pilip, if elected, will join her MAGA pals in the House to cut Social Security, veterans benefits, and “law enforcement jobs.” That last one is a good reminder that crime, despite the 13% reduction in homicides in 2023, still looms large in the suburbs.
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House Speaker Mike Johnson walks to his office at the Capitol, Dec. 13, 2023. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | THE BIG COLLISION — The three biggest political stories of 2024 are about to be one big story. Congress kicked its major end-of-2023 tasks into 2024: funding of the government and Biden’s supplemental funding request for aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. Republicans, especially in the House, were desperate to avoid another pre-Christmas government shutdown deadline. Their solution was to create two funding deadlines in 2024, one on Jan. 19 and one on Feb. 2. Republicans also demanded that the supplemental be paired with a new border security bill, which predictably wasn’t finished before the holidays. First, an intriguing update on the negotiations over the supplemental. As we went into the holiday break, Democrats were facing growing outrage from the left that the White House was giving away too much to Republicans on border policy. There’s a little less of a freakout now. We hear that the border security negotiations are still focused on two difficult issues: tightening standards for asylum seekers and expanding expedited removals in the interior. But immigration activists close to the talks say they are being told that a third major issue seems to be off the table: restricting “parole,” the presidential power to admit classes of migrants on an emergency basis. In fact, one plugged-in source tells Playbook that the apparent removal of parole, which is still a top priority for House Republicans, means a bill is much less likely to pass, even if the core Senate negotiators reach agreement on the other issues. We’ll see if that holds up, but the big point is that the tone on the left — which has been a useful proxy for the likelihood of a deal — has shifted from grave alarm to cautious optimism that a bill that would satisfy House Republicans is now out of reach.
| | | | A message from ACLI, Finseca, IRI, NAFA and NAIFA: Annuities deliver financial certainty like traditional pensions of old.
They are a legally enforceable promise made by an insurance company to provide guaranteed monthly income throughout retirement.
A Department of Labor proposal would shut down access to options for middle-income savers. It’s out of step with bipartisan support in Congress to expand access to guaranteed lifetime income. Stand with us. Protect retirement for all. | | | Now to zoom out: Border negotiations and government funding talks were already difficult. But by not dealing with them last month, Congress has now kicked the debate into the teeth of the Republican presidential primaries. — Jan. 19, when funding runs out for the departments of Agriculture, Transportation, Energy, and Veterans Affairs, as well as assorted other agencies, is smack in between the Iowa caucuses (Jan. 15) and the New Hampshire primary (Jan. 23). — Feb. 2, when funding for everything else (including the Pentagon) shuts off, is between the New Hampshire primary and the GOP’s Nevada caucuses (Feb. 8). We’ll be watching closely to see whether and how DONALD TRUMP, DeSantis, and Haley weigh in on these congressional debates over a potential government shutdown, border security, and aid to Ukraine and how much more difficult they make it for Hill Republicans to reach agreements with Biden. All of this will be bumping up against the legal maneuvering around Trump’s status on the presidential ballot and the multiple civil and criminal cases. To recap, here’s what the near-term political and legal calendar looks like: Today: Trump reply due in D.C. Circuit appeal of presidential immunity decision … Jan. 9: D.C. Circuit hears oral arguments in Trump immunity appeal … Jan. 10: CNN Republican debate in Iowa … Jan. 15: Iowa caucuses … Jan. 18: ABC News Republican debate in New Hampshire … Jan. 19: Government funding runs out, step 1 … Jan. 21: CNN Republican debate in New Hampshire … Jan. 23: New Hampshire primary … Feb. 2: Government funding runs out, step 2 … Feb. 8: Nevada GOP caucuses … Feb. 13: NY-03 special election … Feb. 24: GOP South Carolina primary … Mar. 4: Scheduled start of Trump trial in D.C. … Mar. 5: Super Tuesday TRUMP’S FINAL FRONTIER — Speaking of the intersection of the GOP primary and Congress, our Burgess Everett reports this morning that Trump “is making serious headway with a bloc of the GOP that’s among the most skeptical of his 2024 bid: Republican senators.” Trump earned five new Senate endorsements in December, bringing his total to 18. And, Burgess notes, even some of his fiercest detractors, such as Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL, have said they will support Trump if he’s the nominee. Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from ACLI, Finseca, IRI, NAFA and NAIFA:   Everyone should be able to achieve retirement security. A Department of Labor proposal would limit access to guaranteed lifetime income. Protect retirement for all. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate and the House are out. What we’re watching … Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN’s approval Friday of a $147 million emergency arms sale to Israel — the second such certification in a month — might have sparked a bigger uproar had it come when lawmakers were back in Washington. Still, Sen. TIM KAINE (D-Va.) registered dismay over the weekend at the Biden administration “[u]nnecessarily bypassing Congress” and called for a public accounting for a rationale for the decision — highlighting the ongoing discontent among Democrats over Biden’s arms moves. At the White House Biden and first lady JILL BIDEN will leave the U.S. Virgin Islands to return to the White House tonight.
| | PLAYBOOK READS | | 2024 WATCH
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Charlamagne tha God commutes to Madison Square Park where he is filming a segment for “The Daily Show” in New York on Oct. 24, 2023. | Gabriela Bhaskar for POLITICO | GOD ONLY KNOWS — Nobody encapsulates Biden’s struggles with young, Black voters — or could add to them — quite like popular radio host CHARLAMAGNE THA GOD, Brakkton Booker reports this morning from NYC. Charlamagne’s frequent criticisms of Biden and praise of Trump has an impact on his large audience, and he thinks plenty of voters like him will sit out the 2024 election entirely if it’s a rematch between the two. He doesn’t plan to endorse Biden again, his relationship with VP KAMALA HARRIS and the White House has gone south, and he’s offered some praise for Haley — all of which has drawn some conservative media plaudits. “Charlamagne said he empathizes with the octogenarian president — though he repeatedly questions the president’s mental acuity on air,” Brakkton writes. “The administration has periodically back channeled with him, though it’s often to express annoyance with how he is framing an issue.” Meanwhile, Biden’s polling struggles with the demographics Charlamagne reaches continue: One-fifth of Black voters say they’ll vote third party, and Trump leads among Hispanics and young people in a new USA Today/Suffolk poll that finds Trump slightly ahead of Biden overall, 39% to 37%. More top reads:
AMERICA AND THE WORLD HEADS UP — “South Korean Opposition Leader Is Stabbed,” by NYT’s Choe Sang-Hun: “LEE [JAE-MYUNG], 59, the leader of the liberal Democratic Party, was making his way through a crowd in the port city of Busan when he was attacked, according to the police and live-streamed TV footage of the incident. He had just finished taking questions from journalists after touring the site of a planned airport.” MIDDLE EAST LATEST — Following the American downing of three Houthi ships in the Red Sea, Iran yesterday sent a warship to the area in “a move that risks ratcheting up tensions and complicates Washington’s goal of securing a waterway that’s vital to global trade,” Bloomberg’s Sam Dagher and Arsalan Shahla report. As the Israel-Hamas war continues, Axios’ Barak Ravid reports that Israel rejected Hamas’ latest offer for a cease-fire/hostage release deal, as the two sides remain far apart. And Israel was meanwhile rocked by a big piece of separate news: Its supreme court struck down a crucial piece of PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU’s judicial overhaul that critics said would have undermined the courts’ independence. More from the AP STILL GOING — “Russia unleashes missile barrage at Ukraine as holiday airstrikes persist,” by WaPo’s Lizzie Johnson and David L. Stern in Kharkiv SURVEY SAYS — The share of Americans who list foreign-policy issues among the most important for the U.S. government to tackle this year has doubled from a year ago, rising to roughly 4 in 10, AP’s Will Weissert and Linley Sanders report from a new poll. DIPPING INTO CHIPS — “US Pushed Dutch Maker of Chip Equipment to Block Chinese Sales Before Deadline,” by Bloomberg’s Cagan Koc and Jennifer Jacobs: “ASML Holding NV canceled shipments of some of its machines to China at the request of US President Joe Biden’s administration.”
| | | | A message from ACLI, Finseca, IRI, NAFA and NAIFA:   Americans deserve financial guidance. Learn how a DOL proposal would shut down access. | | | CONGRESS
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Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.) departs a House Republican Conference meeting at the U.S. Capitol Dec. 11, 2023. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | MISSED CONNECTIONS — Amid all the deadlines staring down Congress this year, here’s one more to watch for: funding the Affordable Connectivity Program by April. That’s when the pandemic-era FCC aid program is slated to run dry, imperiling up to 22 million Americans’ ability to access high-speed internet thanks to its subsidies, John Hendel reports this morning. Broadband is a big issue in rural and urban communities alike, and congressional Democrats largely want to keep the program afloat. But the program’s unusual nature poses some tough challenges: “it’s a large federal benefit with no long-term funding mechanism and no clear way to pay for it going forward.” Despite its launch under Trump, some Hill Republicans have grown skeptical of it, citing wasteful spending, big government — and the prospect of Biden getting a feather in his cap from its renewal before the election. “To keep the broadband program alive, ragtag coalitions have been assembling for the last several months rallying for more funding,” John writes. But success looks tenuous. SCARY STUFF — “Holiday week ‘swatting’ incidents target and disrupt members of Congress,” by CBS’ Scott MacFarlane POLICY CORNER
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Joe Biden steps off Air Force One upon arrival in Christiansted, Saint Croix, on the U.S. Virgin Islands, Dec. 27, 2023. | Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images | TRICKS OF THE TRADE — Biden’s effort to resurrect major global trade initiatives after a Trump-era retreat is flailing, having fallen victim to Democratic fears of political vulnerability with U.S. workers, Gavin Bade reports in an insightful 30,000-foot-view piece this morning. The signature moment arrived in November, when last-minute concerns from Sen. SHERROD BROWN (D-Ohio) scuttled a big Indo-Pacific trade pact — and now, White House allies admit no big trade agreements are likely to come together in an election year. It’s a blow for the Biden administration’s belief that it could walk the line of reengaging more with trading partners without hurting American workers. Biden touted a “worker-centered” policy that Democrats hoped might not incite the populist backlash of previous generations’ trade agreements. But it wasn’t enough: “Even if the president’s agenda was designed to staunch the flow of jobs overseas, perception that it wouldn’t was what mattered most for Brown and at-risk Democrats across the industrial Midwest,” Gavin writes. BEYOND THE BELTWAY WHERE 2020 LED US — “Police Officers Are Charged With Crimes, but Are Juries Convicting?” by NYT’s Audra Burch and Kelley Manley: “Since the death of GEORGE FLOYD, a national movement promised sweeping justice reform. So far, police prosecutions have resulted in a mixed bag of convictions, acquittals and a mistrial.”
| | | PLAYBOOKERS | | | Hakeem Jeffries lost his father. Melania Trump’s mother is “very ill.” Kim Jong Un said North Korea should “thoroughly annihilate” the U.S. if provoked. IN MEMORIAM — “Sidney Wolfe, relentless consumer activist and FDA foe, dies at 86,” by WaPo’s Michael Rosenwald: He “spent most of his career with the Health Research Group, part of the Washington-based Public Citizen organization … His petitions and lawsuits helped get more than two dozen dangerous or ineffective drugs removed from the market.” OUT AND ABOUT — British Ambassador Karen Pierce and Charles Roxburgh hosted a New Year’s Eve party Sunday night, featuring lobster, beef stew, truffled potatoes and chocolate hazelnut mousse. SPOTTED: Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), Reps. Don Beyer (D-Va.), Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) and Jim Himes (D-Conn.), Ajay Banga, Liz Sherwood-Randall, Steve Ricchetti, Mike Donilon, Ukrainian Ambassador Oksana Markarova, Canadian Ambassador Kirsten Hillman, New Zealand Ambassador Bede Corry, Andrea Mitchell, Katty Kay, USTR Katherine Tai, Dan Koh, Kellyanne Conway, retired Gen. David Petraeus, Shawn Skelly, Jane Cafritz, Sally Quinn, Adm. Lisa Franchetti, Neil and Izette Folger, George Holding, Melissa Fitzgerald, Matt Miller, Helen Milby, Goli Sheikholeslami, Phil Rucker, Sam Feist, Meredith Berger, John Plumb, Anna Palmer, Brad Dayspring, Lucky Roosevelt, John McCarthy, Natalie Allison, Matt Kaminski, Katherine Doyle, Kevin Sullivan and Mary Jordan, and Josh Dawsey. MEDIA MOVE — Lars Kahl is joining The Free Press as COO. He most recently was VP of strategy and operations at POLITICO. ENGAGED — Nick Butterfield, a director at Affinity Partners and a Trump White House alum, proposed to Lindsay Luzader, who owns a doggie daycare business, on Saturday in Malibu Creek State Park. They met in D.C. during Covid. Pic WEDDINGS — Carly Atchison, national spokeswoman for the Ron DeSantis campaign and an NRCC and Tom Emmer alum, and Eric Bird, a professional soccer player who has played in the MLS and the USL, most recently for FC Tulsa, got married Wednesday in their hometown of Virginia Beach, Virginia. They met in 7th grade and stayed in touch but only started dating in 2020. Pic — Robyn Bryan, comms director for Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) and a Dan Kildee alum, and Luke Jackson, a VP at Precision Strategies and a Jon Tester alum, got married on New Year’s Eve at Maketto. They met through mutual friends during the Nationals World Series win festivities in 2019. Pic … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: POLITICO’s Mike Zapler, Ben Storrow and Braden McMahon … Chris Hartline … CRC Advisors’ Greg Mueller … Judith Miller … Erin Hughes of Marathon Strategies ... Rachel Perrone … former Reps. Henry Bonilla (R-Texas) and Robert Wexler (D-Fla.) … Kyle Gazis … Koch Industries’ Cheyenne Foster … Rebecca Bill Chavez … Annie Lange of the Beer Institute … Meta’s Annie Lewis and Marc Johnson … Scott Cullinane … Rachel Hicks of McDonald’s ... Douglas Faulkner … Bully Pulpit Interactive’s Alexa Barchuk ... Craig Varoga … Fox Business Network’s Elizabeth MacDonald … Ben Sheffner … Anna Wishart … Chandler Dean of West Wing Writers … Will Jawando ... Forbes’ Cyrus Farivar … Michael Webb … Jane Krause … Jason Resendez of the National Alliance for Caregiving Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton, producer Andrew Howard and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
| | | | A message from ACLI, Finseca, IRI, NAFA and NAIFA: Annuities close retirement security gaps for workers.
They help people navigate anxieties about savings lasting throughout retirement amid economic uncertainty and market volatility.
Congress recognized the real challenges people are facing and the importance of annuities in addressing them. Bipartisan legislation in 2019 and 2022 made guaranteed lifetime income more accessible to savers.
A Department of Labor proposal undermines this good work by limiting access to options for a protected retirement. Stand with us to protect options for retirement savers. Protect retirement for all. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
