| | | | |  | | By Kyle Duggan and Nick Taylor-Vaisey | Presented by Amazon Canada | Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. In today's edition: → Welcome to day two of February, which will kick off a series of reflections in the media on the anniversary of the war on Ukraine. → Canada’s former ambassador to the U.S. DAVID MACNAUGHTON shares thoughts on Team Trudeau’s Team Canada branding. → Who’s up and who’s down this week.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | |  Canada's Foreign Minister Melanie Joly and Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in Kyiv, Ukraine, this morning. | AP | THE FIRST THING — It was no surprise Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY popped up in Ukraine today. Joly was already traveling in the region. The big tell: Ukraine's ambassador to Canada, YULIA KOVALIV, arrived in Kyiv earlier this week. DYLAN ROBERTSON of The Canadian Press reports that Joly is in Ukraine to launch a global push to get Russia to return Ukrainian children. BIG BLACK BOX — Despite unleashing thousands of sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine over the past two years, Canadians still don’t really know how effective they are. A new report that quietly dropped this week by the Commons foreign affairs committee calls for injecting more transparency and accountability into Canada’s sanctions regime, calling for Ottawa to set clear objectives and measure the impact, and back it up with more funding. It echoes calls for more analysis and parliamentary oversight from a similar report released last spring when a Senate committee probed the effectiveness of Canada’s sanctions. — Run the numbers: Global Affairs Canada did not respond with requested Russia sanctions statistics in time for publication. But the number surpasses 2,700 entities and individuals in Russia and other countries that are linked to the Ukraine conflict. — Oof: Experts told the Commons committee Ottawa appears to lack the resources and tools needed to produce a damage assessment, from successes to unintended consequences. University of Manitoba’s ANDREA CHARRON told the committee Canada has a “fire and forget” approach where it rattles off a list of names and then never follows up, according to the report. — ¯\_(ツ)_/¯: She also said there are no studies into whether the thousands of entities listed help “to underline human rights and other international norms or simply creates the impetus for entities to rename and reorganize to make tracking their abuses harder.” Russia isn’t a great target for sanctions when it comes to convincing VLADIMIR PUTIN to end the war or severely damage Russia’s economy, DANE ROWLANDS from Carleton’s Norman Paterson School of International Affairs told Playbook, since the country produces raw materials that have big markets and it has industry that can adapt to new conditions and get around them. — Tough to measure: When Rowlands teaches on sanctions, he presents them as deterrents to prevent countries from invading their neighbors — another impossible thing to measure. “We don't really know how effective it is because if it’s effective, you don't see the sanctions. Because the country figures that out and says, ‘Okay, it's going to hurt too much from sanctions and so we won't proceed with what would have triggered them.’” — The trick: Depends on what the ultimate objective is. “Are sanctions the fatal blow? Not necessarily. Did they hurt the Russian economy? There's no doubt about that,” GAC ADM ALEXANDRE LEVEQUE told the committee back in June. “Russia's ability to wage its war has been significantly reduced. Russia's economy has shrunk. Over 1,000 international companies have left Russia.” — Little recourse: Washburn University law professor CRAIG MARTIN, who took part in the House committee study, said the call for more transparency tracks with the expert testimony, but he said policy makers missed the mark when they did not call for the creation of a formal appeals process. “We tend to think that, well, sanctions are being applied to those who are themselves violating human rights. You're going to have to take the government at face value for that. How do we know they have the right person?” Currently the only avenue is to challenge the government in court after being denied on a request to the foreign minister to be removed from the list. The sweeping Russia sanctions have produced around two-dozen federal court cases and at least five delistings over the past few years, numbers the government does not trumpet. — Opposing views: The Conservatives called for Ottawa to introduce legislation to have the anti-money laundering watchdog “better counter sanctions evasion and the financing of threats to national and economic security,” while the NDP decried a failure to “appropriately investigate, enforce sanctions, and seize assets of Russian individuals.” — Next on sanctions: A lot of the easy targets have been picked already. But Russian banks hit record profits, despite the West’s sanctions. “I could easily see more of them being excluded from the international financial system,” Rowlands said. “They’re still exporting goods like diamonds and minerals and hydrocarbons.” “The interesting thing will be what happens if you do get a Trump presidency and the U.S. begins to unwind its sanctions? What will the Europeans do? They're going to have a hard time making those sanctions work … but to an extent they’ll be happy to have been weaned off Russian hydrocarbons.”
| | | | A message from Amazon Canada: Amazon has invested more than $40 billion in Canada since 2010, contributing more than $33 billion to the GDP. Our 2023 Amazon Canada Impact Report shares the latest details of how Amazon is helping transform the potential of communities from coast to coast by creating more than 45,000 jobs; supporting small businesses; investing in renewable energy; developing diverse talent pools; and showcasing Canadian stories and talent across the globe. Learn how Amazon is delivering for Canadians. | | | |  "We're not in the peacetime politics, when politicians can pick an issue and play with it,” Ukraine's foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba told CTV News. | Sergei Supinsky/AFP via Getty Images | NEARLY 2 YEARS — Later this month will mark the two-year anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, just 22 days from now. And a decade on since Russia moved to snatch Crimea. Journalists will soon be readying stories marking the date at a difficult moment for Ukraine, with U.S. support jammed up in Congress and a looming presidential election there that could change the course of support from Ukraine’s most important ally. Canada might be known for its solidarity with Ukraine and for being a big anti-Putin megaphone, but JUSTIN TRUDEAU and PIERRE POILIEVRE spent a good part of the prime minister’s question time this week scoring points over which party supports Ukraine more … and which is betraying it the most. Ukraine's foreign minister DMYTRO KULEBA told CTV’s VASSY KAPELOS in an interview airing this weekend that Canadian voters should push for more support for his country, but he dodged getting sucked into the domestic political battle over Conservative MPs voting against the Ukraine free-trade deal: "You have your own domestic politics.” — Banger quote: "We're not in the peacetime politics, when politicians can pick an issue and play with it." — What’s next: Yet-unscheduled but upcoming third-reading vote on the Ukraine free trade deal, which depending on how the Conservatives vote, could plunge Canada further into fierce domestic debate about support for the war-torn country.
| | | Where the leaders are | | |
— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Toronto to tour a settlement-services agency and hold a media availability alongside International Development Minister AHMED HUSSEN and Toronto Mayor OLIVIA CHOW.
— NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH speaks at Toronto Metropolitan University’s Democracy Forum. — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU, Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE and Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET have not released public itineraries for Friday. | | DULY NOTED | | — Public Safety Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC is up to bat at the foreign interference commission.
| | WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN | | UP: PIERRE POILIEVRE, who cemented his reputation this week as the fundraising king of Canadian politics. DOWN: Windsor, Ontario, losing out on all that sweet, sweet housing accelerator money.
| | HALLWAY CONVERSATION | | | | 
"The things we should be doing, we should be doing regardless of what may or may not be the outcome of the U.S. election," says former ambassador David MacNaughton. | AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite | TEAM CANADA ADVICE — It’s 277 days out from U.S. election day and that’s how much time is left for Canada to prep for the next administration. Playbook reached Palantir’s Canadian President DAVID MACNAUGHTON, who was Canada’s ambassador to Washington from 2016 to 2019 doing KIRSTEN HILLMAN’s job when DONALD TRUMP first came to power, to chat about where the Trudeau government should be doing — and not doing. On the recently announced Team Canada approach led by MARY NG and FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE, his takeaway was this: “Do the strategy. You don't talk strategy.” This interview has been edited for length and clarity. The Canadian government has less than a year now to secure Canada for the potential prospect of a Donald Trump presidency. What should we be doing? The things we should be doing, we should be doing regardless of what may or may not be the outcome of the U.S. election. This is an exercise we need to be involved in on a regular basis, which is reinforcing to the United States that we are their neighbor, best friend and ally. That has a number of things involved in it that have more to do in some respects, particularly with national security and defense, than it does with talking all the time about trade. What do you make of the Team Canada approach branding of it, then? You do the strategy. You don't talk strategy. When the president of the United States said he wanted to rip up NAFTA, we pulled together a Team Canada effort … people were willing to lean in and ask, “What can I do to help?” whether it was community or labor, premiers or whoever. Given the geopolitical situation and all the things that are going on, this should be a continuous effort. Whatever it is that we want to have arguments about internally, the reality is, we should be presenting a common front regardless of who's in power to the United States. The relationship is too important to think that what you're going to do is gear it up just before an election or when there's something like the threat of NAFTA going away or the review of CUSMA or whatever it is. This should be a permanent fixture of what we do as a country. Justin Trudeau said that Canada's ready for the prospect of another Donald Trump presidency. Do you think we're ready or do you think you'll see signs that we're ready for that? We dealt effectively with the first Trump administration and, regardless of who wins the U.S. election, whether it's Trump or Biden, we'll find a way to deal effectively with that administration. Don't forget, with all the nice words and everything that the Democrats come out with or Biden or Obama came out with, the Democrats are not exactly great free traders. Do you think that Trudeau is trying to thread a tough needle with the MAGA rhetoric domestically? I don’t think it’s particularly wise. First of all, I don't think it's going to work politically in Canada. And secondly I think at this point in an election year in the United States, I would not be doing that. What's the risk? I don’t think making derogatory remarks about one of the candidates for president of the United States is a particularly useful thing to do. He's not doing it directly, but he's doing it indirectly. In 2016, when everybody assumed Hillary Clinton was going to win the election, I said to the Cabinet that summer: Don't bet on it. And what’s more: We should just keep our mouths shut about Donald Trump. There's no percentage in having Canadian politicians making derogatory remarks, either directly or indirectly, about a potential president of the United States. I don't think it's a particularly effective tool in terms of reelection of this government here. Do you think that there would be particular risks for Canada if there's a second Trump presidency, or anything that the Trudeau administration should be worried about or trying to Trump proof at this point? We need to be ready for whomever the United States elects. We dealt effectively with Trump when he was president before and I think we can do so again. But I don't think there's anything particularly helpful in trying to identify a particular candidate in the United States for the President as being a bigger or smaller threat to Canada than others. The Democrats are loaded with protectionists. And we're going to have to deal with that. The underlying mood in the United States, Republican or Democrat, is more isolation and more protection. And that's what we should be focused on: not Trump-proofing or Biden-proofing. Don't get personal. It’s the most important relationship we have.
| | | | A message from Amazon Canada:   | | | | | MEDIA ROOM | | — Top of POLITICO this hour: DONALD TRUMP's influence over congressional GOP spikes ever higher. — The Star’s ROBERT BENZIE and STEPHANIE LEVITZ report that PC insiders privately fear more MPPs will abandon DOUG FORD for Team Poilievre. — NP’s CHRIS NARDI notes the federal politicians that lined up at the mics to slam Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH’s new transgender rules. DALE SMITH writes in Xtra: Smith is pandering to her reactionary base. — The arrest of Indigenous journalist BRANDI MORIN chills press freedom in Canada yet again, TANYA TALAGA writes in the Globe. — PROMIT MUKHERJEE of Reuters reports that thousands of Canadian small businesses face the risk of bankruptcy after the government ended pandemic-era support last month. — COLIN HORGAN writes in The Walrus: Social media is warping history. — In the latest from PAUL WELLS: “The finest modern communications strategists have now perfected the government’s communications to the point where if you ask the government any question at all about anything at all, a process begins whereby dozens of people Working From Home figure out a way to suck your brains out through your nose using a ceremonial ceramic straw.” — Speaking of communication, here’s HARVEY SCHACHTER in the Globe: Simple messages are hard to construct but far more effective.
| | PROZONE | | Our latest policy newsletter for Pro subscribers from ZI-ANN LUM: An ‘about-face’ in Ottawa. In other news for Pro readers: — Budget watchdog says Canada’s CCUS tax credit to cost C$5.7B. — PBO puts price on clean hydrogen investment tax credit. — US and global climate policy: Can JOHN PODESTA do both? — 'I was in shock.' Climate envoy describes missing COP28 finale. — 8 people to watch in nuclear energy.
| | Playbookers | | Birthdays: HBD to Attorney General of Ontario DOUG DOWNEY, Calgary’s NAHEED NENSHI, Senator JEAN-GUY DAGENAIS, journalist CAROLE MACNEIL (60!) and former NDP MP ANNE-MARIE DAY (70!). Celebrating Saturday: Liberal MP TIM LOUIS, businessman JIM BALSILLIE, Alberta MLA BRIAN JEAN and former MP BOB SAROYA. On Sunday: Minister of Diversity, Inclusion and Persons with Disabilities KAMAL KHERA and Nova Scotia MLA KELLY REGAN. Birthdays, gatherings, social notices for this community: Send them our way. Spotted: FRANÇOIS LEGAULT speaking in English doing his best impression of Clay Davis from "The Wire," then realizing he stepped a little too far over the line with his language. The quote from MARC MILLER’s appearance on "The Herle Burly" pod he likely hoped journalists wouldn’t notice: “But I do think that Canadians, when they see a guy like that [PIERRE POILIEVRE], will have second thoughts and I proudly believe that. We also have to offer them something and if I know anything about this party after having been in Parliament for eight years is that we are sometimes our own worst enemies and have a tendency to shoot ourselves in the foot and keep on shooting.” Fully redacted CSIS documents made public at the foreign interference inquiry, where fashionable white negative space blocks out the text on the page instead of the standard big, bold black blocks. PASCALE ST-ONGE in an armchair convo at the Westin in Ottawa with REYNOLDS MASTIN, head of the Canadian Media Producers Association, talking Indigenous content creators, CBC, and how times have changed since Mr. Dressup. Movers and shakers: Chief economist at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce STEPHEN TAPP is being appointed as a member of the Canadian Statistics Advisory Council for three years, per OIC. In memoriam: JIM ARMOUR of Summa Strategies pays tribute to the life of RON WOOD, who died Jan. 17: “PRESTON MANNING rightly gets most of the credit for the Reform Party’s early success, but it would have been that much harder to achieve without Wood. He was the secret sauce.” Send Playbookers tips to ottawaplaybook@politico.com . | | | | A message from Amazon Canada: Since the launch of Amazon.ca in 2002, Amazon’s investments have had a positive ripple effect across the Canadian economy, fueling job creation and opportunity for local businesses, communities, and customers.
Amazon Canada’s 2023 Impact Report in a snapshot:
- Since 2010, Amazon has made direct investments of more than $40 billion in our Canadian operations, contributing more than $33 billion to the GDP.
- We’ve created 45,000 jobs with competitive pay and benefits.
- Amazon’s four renewable energy projects in Canada will generate more than 2.3 million MWH of clean energy – enough to power 1.69 million Canadian homes.
- Thousands of Amazon employees have participated in Career Choice, which empowers them to learn new skills in industries including transportation, technology and logistics.
- Amazon MGM Studios contributed $1.4 billion in estimated value added to the Canada GDP between 2021 and 2022, with more than 30 scripted and unscripted productions during this period.
| | | | | ON THE HILL | | The Senate returns Feb. 6. → Find House committees here. → Keep track of Senate committees here. We're tracking every major political event of 2024 on a mega-calendar. Send us events and download the calendar yourself for Google and other clients .
| | TRIVIA | | Thursday’s answer: ISAAC PHILLS was the name of that Cape Breton steel worker, awarded the Order of Canada on July 6, 1967. He was the first Black man to receive the honor. Props to DENISE SIELE, JONATHAN INGRAHAM, MATT DELISLE, LAURA JARVIS, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, JIM CAMPBELL, SHAUGHN MCARTHUR, GREG MACEACHERN, MARCEL MARCOTTE, BOB GORDON and CHRIS MCCLUSKEY. Friday’s question: In 1994, the road through North Buxton, Ontario, was renamed after a civil rights activist. Who does it honor? Answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Run a Playbook ad campaign. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com. Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
