A culture war fades in SoCal

Your afternoon must-read briefing on politics and government in the Golden State
Mar 14, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO California Playbook PM

By Blake Jones

Two women hold hand-painted signs at a demonstration reading "Protect our LGBTQ+ Youth" and "Ban the fascists, save the books."

People protest the Moms for Liberty Joyful Warriors national summit June 30 outside the Philadelphia Marriott Downtown. | Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

COME TALK DRUGS — Join POLITICO March 19 at the Elks Tower in Sacramento for a conversation on prescription drug affordability with CAITLIN BERRY, of pharmacy benefit management company Prime Therapeutics; ROBIN FELDMAN, UCSF law professor; ANTHONY WRIGHT, executive director of Health Access California; and state Sen. SCOTT WIENER. How might officials find savings in the drug supply chain ecosystem? Doors open at 8:30 a.m. RSVP here for “Corrective Action: How to Address Prescription Drug Cost.”

EXIT STAGE RIGHT: Last year, a movement to infuse conservative policies into California schools was having a moment. That time seems to have passed.

Case in point: Two school board members in Orange, a small city near Santa Ana, appear to be on the verge of losing their seats in a recall election.

A campaign to oust conservative trustees Rick Ledesma and Madison Miner declared victory Wednesday night. The two candidates are down by more than 6 percent each, with about 8 percent of ballots still outstanding. The recall effort, run by parents and supported by the local teachers union, had for months fought a 4-3 majority that fired the district superintendent and required staff to alert parents if their child asked to use different pronouns or showed other signs of identifying as transgender.

“It is evident the voters of Orange Unified have agreed with the OUSD Recall campaign regarding the need to end the chaos and corruption that this board majority has inflicted on the students, staff, and community these last 14 months,” the campaign said.

Miner says it’s premature to call the race until every ballot is counted.

“I remain committed to upholding the values and principles entrusted to me by the constituents I serve,” she said in a statement.

The county won’t certify results for weeks, but the last few rounds of ballots processed have trended in favor of the recall campaign — unsurprising since mail-in ballots usually skew more liberal.

If the results hold, it will be a significant setback for the rightward movement that claims the mantle of “parental rights.” The recalls would dissolve one of its most prominent board majorities — at least until members are replaced through an election. It also would signify a defeat of Florida-style education policy in one of California’s tightest battleground regions as angst over coronavirus lockdowns has faded.

The limits to the conservative education campaign in deep-blue California have been evident more broadly. At least seven other school districts passed a flurry of similar trans student policies in quick succession last year — but the rapid replication of those rules came to a halt with around 99 percent of the state’s roughly 1,000 school districts opting not to adopt them.

A batch of legal challenges to those policies has had mixed results — yielding conflicting rulings that ultimately will likely be decided by higher courts.

Also struggling in the California culture war is a proposed ballot measure that would, among other things, require parental notification for children identifying as transgender, place new gender restrictions on school sports and ban gender affirming treatment for minors.

The campaign has so far collected less than a fifth of what it would need to qualify for the ballot. It does not appear on track to meet a May 28 deadline.

An organizer of the effort, Jonathan Zachreson, said signature collection has sped up in recent weeks but acknowledged the challenge.

“If we continue to grow the amount that we’re getting per week,” Zachreson said, the campaign could make the deadline, but “if we just continue to get the thousands per day that we’re getting, that’s a much tougher situation.”

IT’S THURSDAY AFTERNOON. This is California Playbook PM, a POLITICO newsletter that serves as an afternoon temperature check on California politics and a look at what our policy reporters are watching. Got tips or suggestions? Shoot an email to bjones@politico.com or send a shout on X. DMs are open.

 

DON’T MISS AN IMPORTANT TALK ON ACCESS TO AFFORDABLE PRESCRIPTION DRUGS IN CA: Join POLITICO on March 19 to dive into the challenges of affordable prescription drugs accessibility across the state. While Washington continues to debate legislative action, POLITICO will explore the challenges unique to California, along with the potential pitfalls and solutions the CA Legislature must examine to address prescription drug affordability for its constituents. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW TODAY

PLAN OF ATTACK: State Senate leaders say they’ll take early action to cut the state’s yawning budget deficit by $17 billion.

A mix of cuts, spending delays and borrowing from state special funds would reduce the shortfall to $9 billion under the most optimistic calculation of the deficit — $38 billion from Gov. Gavin Newsom’s Department of Finance.

The plan includes deferrals of funding increases to public universities proposed by the governor, some climate cuts and shifting a raft of transportation line items to lease revenue bonds.

Complicating matters, of course, is the fact that the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office has projected the deficit could be as large as $73 billion.

Senate leaders also signaled agreement with Newsom on spending $12.2 billion from state reserves to address the shortfall. And they said they’d support a proposal to extend the application deadline for state financial aid due to the flawed rollout of the new FAFSA.

The package of cost-saving measures could be voted on in the coming weeks.

ON THE BEATS

Los Angeles Councilmember Nithya Raman talks during a press conference at the start of the annual homeless count in the North Hollywood section of Los Angeles Tuesday, Jan. 23, 2024. Los Angeles County's annual count of homeless residents began Tuesday night — a crucial part of the region's efforts to confront the crisis of tens of thousands of people living on the streets. (AP Photo/Richard Vogel)

Los Angeles Councilmember Nithya Raman, seen during a press conference in January, has won reelection. | AP

CLINCHED: Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman secured a second term today after her opponent, deputy City Attorney Ethan Weaver, conceded, reports the Los Angeles Times.

Raman had 50.6 percent of the vote after Wednesday’s ballot drop, pushing her over the threshold to avoid a run-off.

A member of the council’s progressive bloc, Raman faced an uphill climb for reelection; her district was dramatically altered during redistricting, fragmenting her base of renters, and Weaver, backed by more than $1.35 million in outside spending by public safety unions and business interests, attacked Raman from the right on homelessness and crime.

Still, Raman had the backing of much of the city’s Democratic establishment, including Mayor Karen Bass, and her vote total steadily climbed since last week’s primary as ballots from younger and more diverse voters got added to the tally. — Melanie Mason

BUDGET MANEUVERS: A tax on health insurance plans is on track to go up again this year as the state tries to close a multi-billion dollar budget deficit. Assembly Budget Committee Chair Jesse Gabriel said at a hearing today that it’s a “no brainer” to raise the Managed Care Organization Tax to bring in an estimated $1.5 billion.

The MCO tax is paid by health care providers and triggers an increase of federal spending in the state on Medi-Cal, reducing the cost of the program for the state. The tax brings in more than $20 billion.

Newsom’s administration has proposed taking $3 billion from the MCO tax to help cover this year’s projected deficit but faces opposition in the Legislature. — Rachel Bluth

California Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara.

California Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara speaks during a Sept. 21, 2023, press conference. | Adam Beam/AP

AVOIDING CATASTROPHE: The Insurance Department released draft rules today allowing property insurers to use forward-looking models to set rates, a move intended to entice companies to write more policies and reverse the state’s insurance problems.

The regulation is the cornerstone of Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara’s strategy to stabilize the insurance market.

Seven of the 12 top insurers have pulled back in some way from the state in the past two years, blaming inflation and the increased risk of wildfire, and the last-resort insurer has become dangerously bloated.

California is the only state in the country to still require insurers to set rates based only on historical data. The use of forward-looking models that take into account the growing risk of climate change will likely lead to rate increases in the riskiest areas. — Camille von Kaenel

 

In celebration of Earth Month, the USC Wrigley Institute for Environment and Sustainability and the USC Dornsife Center for the Political Future, in collaboration with POLITICO, host “Climate Forward 2024: Climate at the Crossroads” on April 4, 2024 at USC. Top experts from politics, government, media, and academia will discuss climate change issues with a focus on finding practical policy and business solutions as well identifying ways to remove political obstacles to implementing those changes. Register to attend in person or virtually.

 
 
WHAT WE'RE READING TODAY

COMING BACK: San Francisco’s population rose last year in a sign that the city is rebounding from its pandemic slump even amid lingering signs of trouble in real estate and retail. (San Francisco Chronicle)

SHADINESS IN THE DESERT: A candidate for the Imperial County Board of Supervisors says she was offered $500,000 to drop out of the race and that authorities are investigating, though it’s not immediately clear if the apparent bribe violates the state Political Reform Act. (Desert Sun)

TIKTOK’S TRAVAILS: Former Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin says he’s putting together a group to buy TikTok if Beijing-based ByteDance is forced by the U.S. to sell. (POLITICO)

LESSONS OF HISTORY: Oakland’s history of police misconduct complicates the response to the robberies and break-ins that have drawn national attention to the city. (Los Angeles Times)

TOUGH MEASURES: Riverside County’s DA has charged 34 suspected fentanyl suppliers with murder and is reportedly the first prosecutor in the state to get a guilty verdict from a jury in a fentanyl-related homicide trial — an aggressive approach gaining national attention. (The New York Times)

 

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