| | | | |  | | By Dustin Gardiner, Rachel Bluth and Lara Korte | |  Proposition 1 campaign consultant Anthony York, left, speaks with POLITICO reporters Rachel Bluth and Dustin Gardiner during an event at Manny's in San Francisco. | Julia Marsh/POLITICO | THE BUZZ: A win is a win, but there’s still been plenty of Monday morning quarterbacking within Democratic circles over the razor-thin outcome for Proposition 1, Gov. Gavin Newsom’s signature mental-health reform initiative. Anthony York, one of the governor’s closest advisers on the campaign and his former spokesperson, sat down with POLITICO Tuesday night for a live conversation about the outcome. He broke down the policy implications of the $6.4 billion bond package — and responded to critics about the closer-than-expected margin. York was characteristically blunt during our hour-long conversation before a crowd at Manny’s in the Mission, a San Francisco watering hole for political types. Here are five key takeaways from the event (expletives redacted): They knew it would be a close call on March 5: “We thought if the early ballots come in about 56-57 percent we're fine, we’ll coast. The minute we started to see it coming in at 52-53, we knew the race wasn't going to get called on election night,” York said. He said consultants in Newsom’s orbit started to fret on election night because they expected a bigger initial margin from early mail-in ballots, which skew heavily Democratic. It took nearly three more weeks for the race to get called — ultimately, Prop 1 passed with 50.2 percent of the vote. York said Newsom’s advisers were on a group text thread, where they anxiously watched for 4 p.m. ballot drops in those intervening weeks. The March ballot and spending hurt Prop 1: Newsom’s camp spent about $15 million in support of the measure (a relatively small amount for a statewide measure). The governor also opted to put Prop 1 on the ballot in the March primary, when the electorate is more conservative, rather than in November when it leans more liberal. York conceded those choices made passage difficult: “If we wanted to do it the easy way, we would have spent more money. We would have done it in November.” He added that Newsom chose the March ballot because he wanted to start building more supportive housing ASAP — but said he wishes they spent $30 million to promote the initiative across the vast state.
|  California Gov. Gavin Newsom. | Damian Dovarganes/AP | Trump’s influence mattered in SoCal: York said the margin for Prop 1 would have been much higher if not for greater Republican turnout in two purple counties. GOP voters in those areas were motivated to cast ballots for Trump in the primary, he said. “It was basically San Diego and Orange County — and I think a lot of that is Trump. Maybe we should have appreciated more the extent to which Trump means a couple of points,” York said. Zero enthusiasm for more bonds: Despite the close call on Prop 1, some legislators and interest groups are still eager to put additional bonds on the November ballot. Think climate, affordable housing and schools. York says it’s a no-go: “Good luck to them, and God bless.” Non-housing efforts will get cut: Counties currently have a “blank check” to spend their Mental Health Services Act money on a wide range of programs. If you’re worried that crisis interventions, peer counseling and “art classes,” as York called them, might actually go away under the new funding scheme, you’re right. He said the point of the reforms are to cut some of these initiatives and put the money toward getting people off the street. GOOD MORNING. Happy Wednesday. Thanks for waking up with Playbook. Reminder: The Legislature is on spring recess this week. How are you observing some much-needed time away from the Capitol? Email or tweet us with your spring break mood board. Now you can text us at 916-562-0685 — save it as “CA Playbook” in your contacts now. Or drop us a line at lkorte@politico.com and dgardiner@politico.com, or on X — @DustinGardiner and @Lara_Korte. WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced. | | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, the newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world, including WEF in Davos, Milken Global in Beverly Hills, to UNGA in NYC and many more. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | |  | LOS ANGELES | | |  Mayor Karen Bass. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | | REAL TALK — Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass talked about the pitfalls of Inside Safe, the initiative to move homeless people from encampments to motel rooms that has dominated her tenure, with students at USC’s Center for Political Future Tuesday night. It’s not common to hear a politician voluntarily delve into the flaws of a signature policy effort. But without much prodding from her interviewer — former Stockton mayor Michael Tubbs, currently a fellow at the center — Bass was quick to acknowledge the “crazy money” it costs to keep an individual in a motel, the lack of data to track outcomes, the dearth of social services and the snarled bureaucracy to move someone to more permanent housing. “I describe it like I’m peeling an onion,” Bass said, “because every time I find a barrier, I peel it away and there’s another barrier.” Such has been the tension inherent in Bass’ approach to homelessness, which was examined by the New York Times this week. The pressure to make noticeable progress on the crisis right away has resulted in a build-as-you-go approach that, by the mayor’s own admission, isn’t always pretty. Scrutiny of her efforts are bound to increase, especially with the city’s budget pressures mounting and an impending audit of its homelessness programs, including Inside Safe. “Frankly, that's what my journey over the last 15 months has been…knowing that I wanted to get folks off the street, but I couldn't spend six months planning the best program,” Bass said. “Instead I just said, this is an emergency. We got to get people off the streets.” Even when discussing the challenges, Bass was in an upbeat mood. Perhaps it was her audience of policy-minded students, but it probably had something to do with her next stop – heading to the hospital to meet her third grandchild, who was born Monday. — Melanie Mason
| | LAW AND ORDER | | | | 
San Francisco Mayor London Breed. | Eric Risberg/AP | STRANGE WELFARE POLITICS — Progressives were stunned this month when voters in San Francisco overwhelmingly passed a ballot measure to require drug screening and treatment for people receiving local welfare. Many said the policy seemed more like a Republican talking point from Richard Nixon's War on Drugs — certainly not a policy fit for the most progressive major city in America. Democratic officials who’ve embraced the concept — including Mayor London Breed — say their rationale has nothing to do with past GOP-led efforts to drug test welfare recipients. Rather, Breed and her allies argue the shift is about preserving lives as fentanyl overdose deaths skyrocket. “People talk about ‘Oh, tough-on-crime, soft-on-crime.’ It's not about that,” Breed said. “I want people to survive.” But one of the mayor’s closest allies — state Sen. Scott Wiener — and many public-health experts say they worry her approach will fail. Dustin and New York health reporter Maya Kaufman explore the unexpected policy shift in a story published today for POLITICO’s The Fifty project.
| | CLIMATE AND ENERGY | | BERKELEY AND BEYOND — Berkeley’s ban on gas pipes in new construction may be history, but the fight between the state and industry over electric appliance mandates is just heating up. Read more in last night's California Climate. | | | | In celebration of Earth Month, the USC Wrigley Institute for Environment and Sustainability and the USC Dornsife Center for the Political Future, in collaboration with POLITICO, host “Climate Forward 2024: Climate at the Crossroads” on April 4, 2024 at USC. Top experts from politics, government, media, and academia will discuss climate change issues with a focus on finding practical policy and business solutions as well identifying ways to remove political obstacles to implementing those changes. Register to attend in person or virtually. | | | | | | | TOP TALKERS | | — Oakland’s crime rate increased nearly 20 percent from 2022 to 2023. Some neighborhoods have seen the brunt of the spike. (San Francisco Chronicle) — Activists are calling on LA to redo an environmental review that approved a 1.2-mile gondola project over Dodgers Stadium. (Los Angeles Times) — Lawmakers are split over what a Supreme Court ruling on abortion pill access will mean for California. (San Francisco Chronicle) — California’s retrofitted bridges can apparently defy both major earthquakes and errant cargo ships. (Los Angeles Times) — The California Prison system is under fire for alleged religious discrimination. (The San Joaquin Valley Sun) — with help from Ariel Gans
| | PLAYBOOKERS | | TRANSITIONS — Arianna Miskin has joined the University of Southern California’s university relations team as assistant director of health policy. She was previously a comms deputy for the LA City Council. BIRTHDAYS — Walt Mossberg … Niki Christoff … Iain Hart of Rep. John Garamendi’s (D-Calif.) office … (was Tuesday): Larry Page CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this subscriber-only service offers, click here. Want to make an impact? POLITICO California has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Golden State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
