Could Murkowski’s dislike for Trump remake the Senate?

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Mar 25, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO Inside Congress

By Daniella Diaz and Ursula Perano

With assists from POLITICO’s Congress team

Sen. Lisa Murkowski is seen during a Senate Appropriations Committee hearing

Sen. Lisa Murkowski, never one to hide her distaste for the former president, declined to rule out leaving the GOP to become an independent if Trump wins this fall. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

TIME FOR SOME ALASKA GAME THEORY

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) has always been a free thinker. But a second White House term for Donald Trump could force her into a new lane.

Murkowski, never one to hide her distaste for the former president, declined to rule out leaving the GOP to become an independent if Trump wins this fall during a Sunday interview with CNN. Which raises a few big questions about how that outcome – which, let’s be clear, remains entirely hypothetical – would affect the Senate itself.

The Alaskan arguably pioneered breaking from the GOP without straying too far. More than 10 years ago, she lost a primary race to a conservative tea party-backed challenger only to win reelection as a write-in candidate. After she reclaimed her seat, however, Murkowski kept going as a stalwart member of the Republican conference.

When she won a fourth term in 2022 against a Trump-backed primary challenger, she got backing from Mitch McConnell and other big party players – and made clear that she had “to look harder to find” the Republican Party she strongly identified with. And since then, she’s quietly forged a closer tie to the Biden administration than one might think.

But that doesn’t mean an Independent Murkowski would conference with Democrats during a potential Trump term, if she decided to ultimately leave the GOP. Her most likely path would resemble Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s; the Arizona Independent left the Democratic Party in 2022 but kept receiving her committee assignments from Chuck Schumer, leaving the balance of the Senate essentially unchanged.

So could Murkowski single-handedly flip the Senate if she leaves her party? Probably not, given the high likelihood that she would continue to conference with Republicans. Three independents currently serve in the Senate, two of whom caucus with Democrats: Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Angus King (I-Maine).

Sinema doesn’t attend party caucus meetings, but she votes for the president’s nominees and with Democrats on most procedural votes – so she also effectively counts as part of the 51-49 Democratic majority.

What if she wanted to get committee assignments from Democrats but not caucus with them? Unlike Sinema, who counts a number of friends across the aisle, Murkowski’s tightest bonds remain with the GOP. Which means this would be highly unlikely to happen.

But even if she and Schumer wanted to make this happen (again, a huge if that’s the stuff of Hollywood more than Washington), she would have to cut a deal with Democrats to keep the seniority she’d lose by leaving the GOP. That would anger Democrats behind her in line.

Would it affect her reelection chances? Maybe. Murkowski has faced primary challengers before who were irked by her more bipartisan bonafides, as we mentioned above. But the senator just won another term in 2022. So if Trump won, and if she switched, she’d have a lot of headway to deal with any fallout, with her next election not until 2028.

And if Murkowski stayed a Republican, it’s not like she’d be alone in her dislike for Trump. Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) has also said he won’t vote for the former president this year. Others, like Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Bill Cassidy (R-La.) voted to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial — alongside Murkowski.

Not to mention Senate candidate and former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R), who is no Trump fan either.

Murkowski’s office declined to comment. So it’s safe to assume she’s not making a decision on this anytime soon.

— Daniella Diaz and Ursula Perano

 

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GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Monday, March 25, where we hope you’re enjoying recess as much as Ursula’s cat!

N.J. DELEGATION SLOWLY FLIPPING TO KIM

Tammy Murphy’s Senate bid had the support of the majority of New Jersey’s congressional delegation – before she dropped out of the race over the weekend. A day later, the state’s House members are starting to flip to their colleague Andy Kim, who is now likely the Democratic nominee.

POLITICO reached out to every Democratic member of the New Jersey delegation and mostly heard crickets about switching their endorsement. We’ll cut them some slack, since members are out of Washington for recess until April 5, but we can only imagine the awkwardness that the abrupt end of the governor’s wife’s campaign might be causing.

There were two notable early flips: Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) said he is now backing Kim, in a statement shared first with POLITICO.

“With so much at stake in our country — from reproductive freedom to affordability to protecting our democracy — now is the time to come together as a united party,” Gottheimer said. “That’s why I’m proud to endorse Andy Kim and will do whatever I can to make sure Democrats up and down the state win in November.”

And Rep. Mikie Sherrill, the first delegation member to switch, posted on X: “I look forward to working with @AndyKimNJ to protect our Senate Democratic majority and keep New Jersey blue.”

Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman — the only delegation member to stay neutral in the race — is still not endorsing a candidate, even after Murphy’s departure, her team told POLITICO.

But the majority of the delegation hasn’t come out for Kim … just yet. There’s still plenty of time for that to change before the June 4 primary.

— Nicholas Wu, Mia McCarthy and Daniella Diaz

BUCK AND GALLAGHER GET FLAMED

As Reps. Ken Buck (Colo.) and Mike Gallagher (Wis.) make early exits from the House GOP’s chaotic majority, some of their colleagues – conservatives who are often thorns in the side of party leaders – are all but labeling the duo as traitors.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) called for Gallagher to be expelled from Congress shortly after the Wisconsin Republican announced he’d resign his seat on April 19. Her reasoning: Forcing Gallagher out would allow the party to circumvent rules in his state based on his time of departure that are set to effectively leave his seat vacant until November.

“What Mike Gallagher did yesterday was intentional, purposeful, and puts our entire majority at risk,” Greene told conservative pundit and former Trump adviser Steve Bannon.

“The horrible, dishonest and completely irresponsible actions of many in our Republican majority have led us to where we are,” she added. “Every member that leaves early puts us at risk of losing the majority.”

Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) sounded a similar note about Gallagher’s exit on Fox Business.

“There are members that I believe have intentionally designed this to cripple a [Speaker Mike] Johnson-controlled majority,” she said.

Another conservative Republican, Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), also blasted Gallagher’s early exit, which will leave Republicans with just a one-vote majority in the House following a host of departures – including former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, whom Buck voted to fire last year.

“I'm very disappointed that people are not finishing the job that they signed up to do,” Norman said on CNN. “I like Mike Gallagher, but unless it's for health reasons, you do your job for the term that you were elected to do, which is two years.”

Other conservatives also indicated disappointment at the departures.

“I don’t know why they’re leaving,” Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) said in an interview on Newsmax, also naming McCarthy (whom he voted to oust). ”All three of them knew we had a really thin majority anyways.”

— Anthony Adragna

 

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HUDDLE HOTDISH

Metro, congressional district job creator? 

Congrats to Jared Golden and his family for the birth of their daughter.

Eric Schmitt has an early frontrunner for phrase of the year: “That’s valid.” (Katie Britt agrees.)

QUICK LINKS 

How a Former Democratic Operative Is Testing the Limits of What a Newsroom Can Be, from Maggie Severns at NOTUS

I’ve been studying congressional emails to constituents for 15 years − and found these 4 trends after scanning 185,222 of them, from Lindsey Cormack at The Conversation

Bicyclists Are Losing Their Biggest Champion on Capitol Hill, from Lillianna Byington in BGov

Rep. Shri Thanedar taking corporate PAC money after previously rejecting it, from Melissa Nann Burke at Detroit News

How Patty Murray helped craft a compromise to fund the government despite chaos in Congress: ‘Nobody thought we could get this done’, from Orion Donovan Smith at The Spokesman-Review

TRANSITIONS 

Mark Dennin is now chief of staff for Rep. Jimmy Panetta. He was previously the congressman’s legislative director and is a Claire McCaskill alum.

Jack Stelzner is now comms director for Rep. Diana DeGette. He was previously comms director for Rep. Mike Thompson.

Krista Wunsche is now legislative director for Rep. Jimmy Panetta (D-Calif.). She previously was senior policy adviser for Rep. Ed Case (D-Hawaii), and is a Blue Dog Coalition alum.

TOMORROW IN CONGRESS

The House convenes at 9 a.m. for a pro forma session.

The Senate convenes at 5 p.m. for a pro forma session.

TUESDAY AROUND THE HILL

Recess!

TRIVIA

FRIDAY’S ANSWER: Richard W. Wert was the first to correctly guess that James Wilson was the Supreme Court justice to die in office.

TODAY’S QUESTION, from your IC hosts: Who was the first President to receive an Emmy Award?

The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Inside Congress. Send your answers to insidecongress@politico.com.

GET INSIDE CONGRESS emailed to your phone each evening.

Follow Daniella on X at @DaniellaMicaela.

 

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