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By PHELIM KINE
with STUART LAU
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Hi, China Watchers. Today we look at the growing number of states introducing legislation aimed to protect their constituents from a possible war across the Taiwan Strait, examine how U.S. farmland is the latest flashpoint in congressional fears about China and scrutinize China's latest pushback on its Tibet policies. And following the enactment of Hong Kong's repressive new Article 23 security law on Tuesday, we profile a book that argues that the territory's plight is a warning for liberal democracies worldwide.
Let's get to it. — Phelim
States seek shelter from possible Taiwan war blowback
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Chinese People’s Liberation Army soldiers during a military parade on Oct. 1, 1999. | Stephen Shaver/AFP via Getty Images |
Fears of possible conflict across the Taiwan Strait are spurring state-level legislation aimed to identify and mitigate the potential local impact of hostilities.
Since the beginning of the year, lawmakers in Arizona, Nebraska and Illinois have introduced versions of the Pacific Conflict Stress Test Act — bills that impose checklists of potential local vulnerabilities in supply chains and infrastructure security if Beijing eventually uses force to "reunify" with Taiwan.
In a hearing last month, the Arizona bill's sponsor, Sen. Frank Carroll, compared the tensions between the U.S. and China to those of U.S.-Japan prior to Tokyo's sneak attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941 "except this time our adversary happens to be the People’s Republic of China."
Carroll's bill would obligate Arizona's government to draft "mitigation strategies and suggestions that limit or eliminate the risk posed to the safety and security of this state or nation in the event of a Pacific conflict." It would require Arizona to examine potential cyberattack vulnerabilities in its critical infrastructure as well as the implications for "disruption or complete severing of supply chains between this state, its vendors and other countries in the Pacific."
The Nebraska and Illinois bills also share the title "Pacific Conflict Stress Test Act" and mirror the language in the Arizona version. The sponsor of Nebraska's bill, Sen. Eliot Bostar, declined to comment. Illinois State Sen. Jason Plummer, sponsor of parallel legislation in that state, didn't respond to a request for comment.
Those bills are the brainchild of Michael Lucci, founder of the hawkish nonprofit advocacy group State Armor which is lobbying states to enact laws aimed to insulate them from potentially malign Chinese influence. The organization does not receive corporate funding, Lucci said, and is a bipartisan non-profit focused on "protecting America and its citizens from Communist China."
The inspiration for the legislative push was the pandemic-related supply chain disruptions for China-produced items including personal protective equipment and other medical supplies.
"It's a concept that we originated and … lawmakers say 'Hey, can you put pen to paper and kind of sketch out what you think that looks like?'" Lucci said.
Even the most pessimistic analysts say a cross-Strait conflict with China isn't imminent. Still, states appear to be deciding it's better to prepare for the worst.
Predictions of the economic impact of confrontation across the Strait are dire. A blockade of the self-governing island could cost the global economy "well over two trillion dollars," the Rhodium Group economic research firm said in December.
And state-level infrastructure could be a target. "China's hackers are positioning on American infrastructure in preparation to wreak havoc and cause real-world harm to American citizens and communities. … Low blows against civilians are part of China's plan," FBI Director Christopher Wray told a congressional hearing in January.
The state initiatives echo moves by legislators in the United Kingdom, Europe and Asia to brace their economies for the impact of a possible war over Taiwan. The International Parliamentary Alliance on China, a non-partisan grouping of lawmakers — including Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) — focused on countering China's threats to democratic countries, launched Operation MIST, an initiative to "measure impact of a shock in the Taiwan Strait" earlier this month.
Politicians realize "they've got huge skin in the game when it comes to Taiwan," said Luke de Pulford, IPAC's executive director. Lawmakers taking action now to address those risks can avoid voters "waking up to an economic crisis five times worse than that caused by Ukraine that governments haven't done anything to prevent," de Pulford said.
TRANSLATING WASHINGTON
— FIRST IN CHINA WATCHER: REP. KIM URGES PROTECTION FOR U.S. FIRMS IN CHINA: Rep. Young Kim (R-Calif.), chair of the House subcommittee on the Indo-Pacific, wants the State Department to do more to protect U.S. companies from harassment by Chinese authorities. That includes "raids on American companies' facilities going as far as confiscating computers and telephones that could contain intellectual property," Kim said in a letter to Under Secretary of State Jose Fernandez. Chinese police have over the past year raided the Beijing offices of U.S. firms including Boston-based corporate consulting firm Bain & Company and the New York-based corporate due diligence firm Mintz Group for suspected illegal business operations. Kim wants Fernandez to provide details in a House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing today about what State is doing to protect U.S. companies operating in China and what the administration is doing "to encourage American businesses to move critical supply chains away from the PRC," the letter said.
FIRST IN CHINA WATCHER: FLAGSHIP SOLAR FACILITY TO USE CRITICAL CHINESE TECH: One of the flagship facilities poised to benefit from Biden administration renewable energy tax incentives will use various Chinese-produced technologies in its manufacturing processes, POLITICO's Daniel Lippman writes in. That's noteworthy because the administration has committed to trying to stand up a domestic supply chain for solar production and rely less on imported clean energy technology from China. QCells, a subsidiary of the Korean conglomerate Hanwha, last summer selected China's Shanghai Lianfeng Gas Co. to make the argon-gas recycling technology that is critical to making solar cells in its new Cartersville, Georgia, plant, according to four people familiar with the matter. QCells spokesperson Debra DeShong said in a statement that the company's commitment to U.S. manufacturing is strong and that they have invested $2.8 billion and created almost 4,000 new manufacturing jobs in Georgia. Shanghai Lianfeng Gas didn't respond to a request for comment.
— INDOPACOM WARNS ON CHINA-RUSSIA DANGER: Beijing's alignment with Russia has raised the risk of potential military conflict with the U.S., Admiral John Aquilino, chief of U.S. Indo-Pacific command, said Wednesday. "That cooperation … puts us in a different security environment, so I'm very concerned about that," Aquilino told a hearing of the House Armed Services Committee. Aquilino said that North Korea's provision of munitions to Russia including ballistic missiles has "amplified" that threat. "This is a way to combat the broadened United States alliances and partnerships with our like-minded allies and partners around the region — this is their counter," Aquilino said. His comments follow Indopacom's submission of a whopping $11 billion budget wish list to Congress, headlined by a push to build up a missile defense web on the island of Guam. POLITICO's Connor O'Brien has the full story here (for U.S. Pros).
— LAWMAKERS: CHINA'S A U.S. FARMLAND RISK: Federal and state-level lawmakers warned during a hearing Wednesday of the House Committee on Agriculture that purchases of U.S. farmland by Chinese entities pose a national security risk. But partisan drama erupted before the hearing even convened. "One potential witness for the Democratic minority pulled out … over concerns that Republicans were planning to broadly hammer China, risking what the person described as a rise in anti-Chinese sentiment," POLITICO's Meredith Lee Hill reported Tuesday (for U.S. Pros). The hearing produced a barrage of Beijing bashing. China is "an enemy. … They are buying up our entire food supply chain and when America can't feed itself and we rely on another country to feed us it becomes a national security issue," said South Dakota's GOP Governor Kristi Noem. The Chinese Embassy in Beijing didn't respond to a request for comment.
Noem signed into law earlier this month a bill that bars China and five other "foreign adversary" countries from purchasing farmland in the state. Concerns over China's growing influence in Montana's agricultural industry is also front and center in the electoral race between Democratic Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and his GOP challenger, businessman Tim Sheehy — POLITICO's Marissa Martinez has the full story here. The hearing also heard calls for empowering the Treasury Department's Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S., or CFIUS, to better scrutinize attempted land grabs by Chinese entities. "Give CFIUS the authority and resources it needs to make sure that our foremost adversary can't buy land near critical infrastructure and military bases — it should be a no-brainer," Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.), chair of the House Select Committee on China, told the hearing.
— TIKTOK SAGA TICKS ON: The House of Representatives' least-favorite social media app isn't going anywhere anytime soon. Despite the congressional push to compel TikTok's Chinese parent firm, ByteDance, to either sell the app or shut it down in the U.S., neither option is on an express track as the Senate considers next steps. "The Senate might never take the bill up; a signed law could lose a constitutional challenge in court — in either case, the immensely popular video platform would continue to expand its role in global politics," POLITICO's Derek Robertson reported Tuesday. Meanwhile Beijing is framing the anti-TikTok crusade as a hypocritical attack on private enterprise. "When it comes to disinformation, more evidence pointed to the U.S. itself of being a spreader of disinformation and a manipulator of international public opinion," Chinese Embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu said in an X post Tuesday.
— BLINKEN VOWS 'IRONCLAD' SUPPORT FOR PHILIPPINES: Secretary of State Antony Blinken pledged "an ironclad commitment" to the Philippines and its bilateral Mutual Defense Treaty with the U.S. in the face of increasingly aggressive incursions into Philippine territory by Beijing. Ongoing harassment by Chinese Coast Guard units of Philippine vessels in Manila's waters are "in violation of international law and Filipino rights … [and] a threat to peace, security, freedom of navigation and basic rights under international law," Blinken said in a joint press briefing with Philippine Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo on Tuesday. Beijing is unmoved. The Mutual Defense Treaty "should not undermine China's sovereignty and maritime rights and interests in the South China Sea, nor should it be used to support the illegal claims of the Philippines," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said Tuesday.
TRANSLATING EUROPE
TAIWAN VP-ELECT TOURS PRAGUE: Taiwan's incoming vice president Bi-khim Hsiao paid a low-key but surprise visit in the Czech Republic on Tuesday, meeting the top Czech lawmaker Miloš Vystrčil and speaking at the Sinopsis think tank. Earlier on in her trip she also visited the U.S. China called on the Czech Republic — whose President Petr Pavel takes a pro-Taiwan line — to "strictly restrain individual politicians" and "immediately cease any despicable acts that damage the Czech Republic's national reputation." Taiwan's Foreign Minister Joseph Wu hit back, saying: "It would've been unusual if China didn't say something to protest."
WE NEED CHINA DETOX, BELGIUM'S CHIP GIANT CEO SAYS: Luc Van den Hove, CEO of the world-leading Belgian-based chips research center Imec, said his company has greatly reduced its ties to China, Pieter Haeck writes in to report.
"It's clear that our key partners are U.S., Taiwan, Korea, Japan. And given the evolution in the geopolitical tensions, it becomes impossible to work with everybody," Van den Hove said during an interview at the Center for Strategic and International Studies on Tuesday when asked about Chinese collaborations. Imec had "drastically reduced” its ties with China, he added.
Not on Washington's order: Van den Hove stressed that the company was making a choice to reduce ties, rather than being forced to. "In Europe it's a little more … the rules are a little more tolerant. But we, on a voluntary basis, completely adhere to the U.S. export control rules."
UK TOP LAWMAKER QUESTIONS LACK OF SANCTIONS: Conservative Party heavyweight Iain Duncan Smith on Wednesday criticized the U.K. government for a lack of sanctions against Chinese individuals. According to Duncan Smith, a leading China critic in Westminster sanctioned by Beijing authorities, the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office had "paused indefinitely" any targeted sanctions against China. The government official present did not dispute that, according to the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China.
That's despite Foreign Secretary David Cameron's criticism. In response to Hong Kong's adoption of new national security legislation, Cameron warned that "this new law, rushed through the legislative process, will have far-reaching implications for all of these areas." Like the statement by EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, the U.K. top envoy raised concerns over the law's impact on the diplomatic community in Hong Kong, given what he called "broad definitions of national security and external interference."
Beijing slams London over Hong Kong remarks: The Chinese Foreign Ministry lashed out at Cameron's "wrongful" comments related to the ex-British colony. "The remarks from the British side are a serious distortion of the facts and constitute grave interference in China's internal affairs. We are firmly against this," the Chinese Embassy in London said in a statement Tuesday.
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
The House Select Committee on China is at a crossroads as chair Gallagher prepares to leave politics later this year, exposing disagreements over its future. POLITICO's Gavin Bade, Ari Hawkins and Meredith Lee Hill have the full story here.
THREE MINUTES WITH …
Hanscom Smith, former U.S. Consul General in Hong Kong and a senior fellow at Yale's Jackson School of Global Affairs, says that the Hong Kong government's passage of its Article 23 security law on Tuesday is bad news for the territory's credibility as a regional business hub. The law has been a magnet for criticism from foreign lawmakers and United Nations rights experts for vague provisions that will "criminalize peaceful exercise of human rights." Beijing has rejected those concerns as "slandering and smear" against the legislation.
Responses have been edited for length and clarity.
Why should U.S. corporate executives based in Hong Kong be worried about this new law?
One of the biggest problems with Article 23 is the lack of clarity about what is meant by "external interference" — that creates the potential for arbitrary enforcement. That undermines the rule of law, which has always been one of Hong Kong's strongest selling points as a place to work and invest. That makes Hong Kong less competitive, less transparent, and less predictable as a place to do business — it undermines Hong Kong's role as an international business hub.
How can U.S. citizens and businesses in Hong Kong stay on the right side of this law?
That's one of the most troubling aspects of Article 23 — people simply don't know how it's going to be used in this atmosphere of insecurity.
Why this law at this time?
It's not clear to what extent Article 23 is another instance of performative patriotism, and to what extent it signals ongoing insecurity and an intention to further restrict Hong Kong's autonomy.
HOT FROM THE CHINA WATCHERSPHERE
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— CHINA-AUSTRALIA TALK UP BETTER TIES: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is in Australia this week pitching an improvement in ties soured by years of Chinese economic coercion targeting Canberra. China wants greater cooperation in areas including agriculture, mining and energy to create "a bigger cake of common interests," Wang said in a statement Tuesday. The two countries are on track to extend the stay of Chinese pandas at the Adelaide Zoo and will welcome Chinese Premier Li Qiang to Australia later this year. But long term bilateral irritants remain including "Australians detained in China, human rights, maritime security," Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong told reporters Tuesday.
TRANSLATING CHINA
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Beijing's Tibetan boarding school propaganda push
The Chinese government is hitting back at critics of its boarding schools in Tibet that international critics say focus more on cultural brainwashing than reading, writing and arithmetic.
The European Union Parliament called for the schools' "immediate abolishment" in December after the United Nations declared them centers of "forced assimilation" in 2023.
Beijing responded to that criticism in a statement that the Chinese Embassy in Canada emailed to China Watcher this week. It portrays the schools as an educational necessity to service children spread across a vast geographical area that makes local community schools impractical. An injection of $35 billion in government spending from 2012-2022 means those schools are "nurturing the minds of our future, reflecting a deep-rooted belief in the transformative power of education." The statement coincides with Chinese state media English-language reporting on Wednesday of alleged foreign Tibet experts parroting Beijing's narrative of the schools' utility.
Tibetan rights activists aren't buying it. "The Chinese government repeats the same, tired arguments about geography being the reason for the boarding school system in Tibet. … China's deliberate attempt to eradicate Tibetan identity, language, and social cohesion is" the schools' purpose, said Lhadon Tethong, director of the nonprofit advocacy organization Tibet Action Institute, which exposed the boarding school system in a 2021 report.
HEADLINES
The Diplomat: The fall of Hong Kong: How China-US rivalry ended a geopolitical neutral zone
Foreign Affairs: Playing both sides of the U.S.-Chinese rivalry: Why countries get external security from Washington — and internal security from Beijing
ProPublica: Gangsters, money and murder: How Chinese organized crime is dominating America's illegal marijuana market
HEADS UP
— U.S.-PHILIPPINES-JAPAN TRILATERAL IN APRIL: President Joe Biden will host a trilateral summit meeting with the leaders of Japan and the Philippines at the White House on April 11. On the agenda: "inclusive economic growth and emerging technologies, advance clean energy supply chains and climate cooperation, and further peace and security in the Indo-Pacific and around the world," White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre said in a statement Monday. The Indo-Pacific reference is code for a trilateral confab about how to address Beijing's increasingly aggressive posture in Philippine waters of the South China Sea. Stay tuned.
ONE BOOK, THREE QUESTIONS
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Hana Meihan Davis |
The Book: Freedom Undone: The Assault on Liberal Values and Institutions in Hong Kong
The Author: Michael C. Davis is a former longtime professor of law at the University of Hong Kong and currently a Global Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.
Responses have been edited for length and clarity.
What is the most important takeaway from your book?
What has happened in Hong Kong, to quote Hong Kong political prisoner Chow Hang-tung, "is not just an anomaly but a warning." The hollowing out of liberal constitutional values in Hong Kong reflects Beijing's vision for former open societies and the Chinese Communist Party's view of liberal values as an existential threat to its hold on power. The result is the use of national security as a pretext to lock up or silence political opposition while pretending government institutions are functioning as normal.
What was the most surprising thing you learned while writing this book?
The sheer scale of Beijing's suppression of liberal institutions and values. It began with Beijing's move in 1999 to deny residence rights to 1.4 million Chinese citizens in the city and foot dragging on political reform. Then came a crackdown on mass-democracy protests in 2019, the imposition of the National Security Law in 2020 and new electoral rules in 2021 that disqualified any perceived pro-democracy candidates. The regime's use of law proved to be as effective in throttling dissent as a deployment of the People's Liberation Army.
Is the old Hong Kong gone forever?
Not forever — it lives on in the minds and spirit of Hong Kong people, especially those in exile. It also lives on as a warning to the guardians of human rights and liberal values around the world. It stands as a warning that even the most liberal and open societies can see freedom undone if the people fail to consider the risk.
Got a book to recommend? Tell me about it at pkine@politico.com.
Thanks to: Heidi Vogt, Daniel Lippman, Connor O'Brien, Gavin Bade, Ari Hawkins, Derek Robertson, Meredith Lee Hill, Marissa Martinez, Pieter Haeck and digital producers Tara Gnewikow and Fiona Lally. Do you have tips? Chinese-language stories we might have missed? Would you like to contribute to China Watcher or comment on this week's items? Email us at pkine@politico.com and slau@politico.eu.
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