| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  A protester burns tires during a demonstration calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Ariel Henry in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, on February 7, 2024. | Richard Pierrin/AFP via Getty Images | With help from Phelim Kine, Nahal Toosi, Erin Banco, Alex Ward and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Matt| Email Eric Plans are floating around Washington on how to help get Haiti back on track amid the chaos caused by gangs, but none of Haiti’s partners — including the United States — have been able to make progress in recent days. For the United States, the repercussions are clear: thousands of refugees could exacerbate the border crisis. Asked about the possibility of using Guantanamo Bay to process Haitian migrants if needed, National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters today the U.S. will “keep its options open.” “We're talking about a ticking bomb here,” RENATA SEGURA, deputy program director of Latin America and Caribbean at the International Crisis Group think tank, told NatSec Daily. “This could become a humanitarian emergency, very much like what's happening in Gaza, at any second. People are going to try to flee for their lives.” More than 362,000 people inside the country have been displaced, half of whom are children, according to the United Nations. A number of experts and policymakers have roughed out an idea of what could avoid a Haitian collapse to NatSec Daily. Here are the (very simplified) steps:
- Haiti enacts a transitional government.
- Kenya agrees to deploy security officers to quell the gangs as part of a U.N. multinational mission.
- The U.S. convinces Republicans to release $40 million in funds, which would support the multinational mission.
The problem starts with Step One.
While Haiti would likely have enough international support to hold elections, “it is unthinkable without first bringing the gangs to heel,” BENJAMIN GEDAN, former South America director on the National Security Council, told NatSec Daily. It’s more likely that a transitional council will be appointed — but Haiti’s de facto leader who promised to step down said any appointees must go through him, potentially complicating the process. That affects Step Two: Nairobi paused its mission, saying it would re-evaluate once a new Haitian government is in place. Even if elections were held and officers were cleared to leave Kenya, there’s an issue with Step Three: Top Republicans want a clearer plan from the State Department on how the U.S. aims to help Haiti before they greenlight more money. (State officials have said they’ve briefed Congress on the issue dozens of times.) Asked about the potential for an influx of Haitians becoming a crisis for the U.S., a senior State Department official told NatSec Daily that “a lot of these things are linked” and making sure the Kenyan officers get to Haiti is the administration’s top priority. “We've got to do everything we can to fortify the security circumstances in Haiti, and right now we think the best way to do that is through” the multinational security mission, said the official, granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive topic. Our Floridian colleagues wrote Wednesday that the crisis may lead to a migration surge to Florida, but lawmakers and experts think the problem could also affect the southern border and migration in the entire region. The White House hasn’t seen a “heavy flow” of Haitians trying to enter the U.S. yet, Kirby said. But since “the situation is not getting better,” Kirby added, “it would be irresponsible if DHS and the interagency wasn't taking a look at what we might do, should that flow dramatically increase.”
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: PAC-3 MSE: Enabling a Hardened Defense against Maritime Threats
Lockheed Martin is developing advanced IAMD capabilities to give sailors more options using existing capabilities. Integrating PAC-3 MSE into the Aegis Weapon System would deliver an advanced, combat-proven IAMD capability to U.S. Sailors. Learn more. | | | | | SCHUMER CALLS FOR ISRAELI ELECTIONS: Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER, the highest-ranking Jewish official in Congress, called on the U.S. to pressure Israel to push more aid into Gaza and for the country to hold new elections, our own ANTHONY ADRAGNA reports. Speaking on the Senate floor, Schumer said that Israel "must make some significant course corrections" as the conflict nears the half-year mark. He also criticized Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU for his management “The Netanyahu coalition no longer fits the needs of Israel after Oct. 7," Schumer said. It’s a significant rebuke from the New York Democrat, but his alignment with the Biden administration comes as Democrats’ patience with the Israeli government wears thin. Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL lambasted Schumer for the speech. “Israel is not a colony of America, whose leaders serve at the pleasure of the party in power in Washington,” McConnell said in a statement. “Only Israel’s citizens should have a say in who runs their government. This is the very definition of democracy and sovereignty.” Read: With Schumer’s Israel remarks, the American gloves are off by Alex RAFAH PLAN: Israel plans to direct many of 1.4 million Palestinians sheltering in the southern city of Rafah to “humanitarian islands” in central Gaza, Israel Defense Forces spokesperson DANIEL HAGARI said today. Hagari said the zones would be created with the “international community” to house displaced people and provide food, per The Washington Post’s FRANCES VINALL, SHIRA RUBIN and JENNIFER HASSAN. “I can't speak to those plans,” Kirby said. “I'm not disputing the reporting, I'm just saying we've not seen such plans.” Senior U.S. officials have told their Israeli counterparts that the Biden administration would support Israel going after high-value Hamas targets in and underneath the city — as long as Israel avoids a large-scale invasion that could fracture the alliance, our own ALEX WARD and LARA SELIGMAN reported Wednesday. FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — BLINKEN TO AUSTRIA: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN will head to Vienna to address the U.N. Commission on Narcotic Drugs on Friday, aiming to secure new commitments from other countries and partners to help State’s efforts with combatting fentanyl and other synthetic drugs. It’s the first time a secretary of State has attended the commission. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | |   | | | | | ‘WE WILL ACT’: The tension between Washington and Budapest — sparked by Hungarian Prime Minister VIKTOR ORBÁN’s visit with DONALD TRUMP last week — may ramp up soon, U.S. Ambassador to Hungary DAVID PRESSMAN said in a rare speech today. “We can neither understand nor accept the prime minister identifying the United States as a ‘top adversary’ of our ally Hungary. Or his assertion that the United States government is trying to overthrow the Hungarian government,” Pressman said, per The Guardian’s LILI BAYER. Last week, Biden said that Orbán “doesn’t think democracy works and is looking for dictatorship,” after his meeting with Republican presidential Trump in Florida. Hungary then hauled in Pressman for a dressing down. “While the Orbán government may want to wait out the United States government, the United States will certainly not wait out the Orbán administration,” Pressman said. “While Hungary waits, we will act.”
| | | | YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. | | | | | | | | TIKTOK AND THE YOUTHS: The bill requiring TikTok’s Chinese owner to divest from the company or face a ban on app stores is adding to President JOE BIDEN’s problems with young voters, our own ELENA SCHNEIDER reports. Despite concerns about data privacy and connections to China, two-thirds of Americans under 30 use the popular social media app. Some Democrats are warning a ban could hurt Biden’s poll numbers with younger voters who already have soured on the president during his first term. “Democrats need to reach younger voters more than Republicans need to reach them, and TIkTok is the most valuable tool to do that,” said KYLE THARP, managing director at Courier, a progressive media company. “Taking that tool away from campaigns, progressive media companies, content creators two months out from Election Day would be a net negative for Democratic candidates.” BEIJING’S TECH ANGLE: The Chinese government has been investing in Indo-Pacific nations’ telecommunications industry to make them dependent on Beijing, a top USAID official told lawmakers today, as our own PHELIM KINE writes in. “We’ve seen a surge of investment by the PRC in the [region’s] telecommunications sector in recent years which can lead nations vulnerable to cybersecurity risks,” MICHAEL SCHIFFER, assistant administrator at USAID’s Bureau for Asia, told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, using an abbreviation for the People’s Republic of China. That’s part of a wider Chinese investment approach in the region which is “not economic, not sustainable and leaves a partner saddled with debt,” Schiffer said. The efforts comes as the Biden administration plays catch up in reasserting Washington’s presence among Pacific Island countries due to worries of China’s increasing influence.
| | | | JOIN US ON 3/21 FOR A TALK ON FINANCIAL LITERACY: Americans from all communities should be able to save, build wealth, and escape generational poverty, but doing so requires financial literacy. How can government and industry ensure access to digital financial tools to help all Americans achieve this? Join POLITICO on March 21 as we explore how Congress, regulators, financial institutions and nonprofits are working to improve financial literacy education for all. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | FINGER-POINTING ON AMMO SHORTAGE: NATO Secretary-General JENS STOLTENBERG blamed the alliance’s members for Ukraine’s ammo shortage, arguing today that their inaction "has consequences on the battlefield every day," according to our own STUART LAU. In particular, the NATO boss called on members to step up their aid to Ukraine, saying that “we have the capacity, we have the economies to be able to provide Ukraine with what they need.” “NATO allies are not providing Ukraine with enough ammunition and that has consequences on the battlefield every day," he warned. “It’s one of the reasons why the Russians have been able to make some advances on the battlefield over the last weeks and months.” UKRAINE’S PRISONER PUSH: Ukrainian members of parliament introduced a bill that would allow prisoners to serve in the country’s military, taking a page out of the Russian playbook to solve its morale and manpower problems, our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA reports. Ukrainian law doesn’t allow inmates to enlist, but the bill, introduced by 14 members, would change that to allow prisoners who have completed most of their sentences and aren’t considered a danger to the public to join the armed forces. The push to turn convicts into conscripts comes as Ukraine’s fatigued army needs a replenishment of half a million soldiers for the current ranks to rest and refit. Throughout its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has mined its prisons for fresh recruits. ICYMI — Denmark to begin conscripting women for the military in rare move by our own ŠEJLA AHMATOVIĆ
| | JOHNSON: I NEED DEMS FOR AID BILL: Speaker MIKE JOHNSON says he expects to see a standalone foreign aid bill that will need Democratic votes in order to pass in his chamber, our own OLIVIA BEAVERS reports. In an exclusive interview with POLITICO, the Louisiana Republican stopped short of committing to putting a bill to a vote in the House, but acknowledged that foreign aid would come up on the House's suspensions calendar, meaning he'd need Democrats to back the bill in order to get it past the two-thirds requirement to pass. SENATORS FIGHT FOR AFGHAN VISAS: A bipartisan group of senators urged their Senate leaders today to ensure that the State and Foreign Operations appropriations bill allows for 20,000 new visas under the Afghan Special Immigrant Visa program. “There have been credible reports of hundreds of Afghans killed while waiting for the SIV application to be processed,” read the letter, led by Sen. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.). “Congress must ensure that the visas are available to bring every eligible SIV applicant – including the surviving spouse in cases where our Afghan ally has already been killed – to the United States.” The letter was also signed by Sens. CHRIS COONS (D-Del), MIKE ROUNDS (R-S.D.), BEN CARDIN (D-Md.), THOM TILLIS (R-N.C.), JACK REED (D-R.I.), JERRY MORAN (R-Kan.), AMY KLOBUCHAR (D-Minn.), TAMMY DUCKWORTH (D-Illi.), ROBERT MENENDEZ (D-N.J.), CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D-Md.), TIM KAINE (D-Va.), JEFF MERKLEY (D-Ore.), BILL CASSIDY (R-La.) and LISA MURKOWSKI (R-Alaska). LAWMAKERS SAY NO US TROOPS TO HAITI: Congress is divided over how best to respond to the ongoing crisis in Haiti. But in interviews with NatSec Daily, lawmakers on both sides of the aisle agreed on one thing: U.S. troops should not be deployed to Haiti if the Kenyan mission falls through. Senate Foreign Relations Chair BEN CARDIN (D-Md.) told Eric it would be “counterproductive for us to try to put troops into Haiti,” while noting “we do need to supply the logistical support for a multinational support working with the Haitian authorities.” Sen. BILL CASSIDY (R-La.) said that troops shouldn’t be deployed, “except to support extracting Americans.” The hesitancy to send U.S. troops to directly engage the armed gangs speaks to the history of foreign interventions in Haiti. Rep. SHEILA CHERFILUS-McCORMICK (D-Fla.), co-chair of the House Haiti Caucus, told Eric that “the credibility of the United States with Haiti has been tarnished, and we have to accept that.” Other regional stakeholders, like Brazil, have also shied away from taking helm of a support mission. As of today, only Salvadoran President NAYIB BUKELE, who has waged a heavily criticized campaign against his country’s gangs and cartels, has volunteered. Some lawmakers want to see other countries take initiative as well. “Where are the Canadians? Where are the French? Where are the rest of Latin America?” Rep. MARÍA ELVIRA SALAZAR (R-Fla.) told Eric. “This is not only the United States’ responsibility.”
| | ARMS CONTROLS ON NICARAGUA: The State Department unveiled weapons export and import restrictions today targeting Nicaragua, the latest move from Washington in response to increased repression from the country’s leader DANIEL ORTEGA. In a statement, State Department spokesperson MATTHEW MILLER said the U.S. “remains deeply concerned about continuing brutal repression” by the Nicaraguan government and “will continue to use all available diplomatic and economic tools” to hold the Nicaraguan government accountable. The restrictions come as Ortega has rapidly stifled dissent and increased his hold on power. In August, his regime expelled the Catholic Jesuit order of priests and closed several universities, arguing they were fomenting unrest. His regime has also outlawed thousands of civil society groups and arrested thousands of protestors and dissidents who have criticized human rights abuses in the country. Read: Russia-Ukraine: Don’t mention the peace by our European colleagues
| | | — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: MICHAEL CARPENTER is slated to begin serving as the NSC’s senior director for European Affairs on March 25, our own NAHAL TOOSI and ERIN BANCO write in. He currently serves as U.S. ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. — The Senate confirmed DENNIS HANKINS, who previously served as U.S. ambassador to Guinea and Mali, as the new Haiti ambassador. The U.S. had been without a Senate-confirmed ambassador to Haiti since October 2021. Since then, the U.S. embassy has been led by a rotating cast of chargés d’affaires. — MARY BROOKS is now a foreign affairs officer working for the ambassador at large for cyberspace and digital policy at the State Department. She most recently was a public policy fellow at the Wilson Center and was the lead researcher for DAVID SANGER on two books.
| | — EVA HARTOG, POLITICO: ALEXEI NAVALNY's final plan to cause VLADIMIR PUTIN 'maximum damage' — AARON DAVID MILLER, The New York Times: Words over deeds: why Biden isn’t pressuring Israel — Government Accountability Office: DOD should take actions to enhance its plan for mitigation and response efforts
| | — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: The 2023 Women, Peace and Security Strategy and the status of U.S. international engagement on gender — National Press Club, 12 p.m.: An event with Queen SYLVIA NAGGINDA LUSWATA of Bugunda, the largest kingdom in Uganda — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 12 p.m.: The global south and the Gaza assault — Atlantic Council's Statecraft Initiative, 1 p.m.: On the state of spyware: mapping the risks and incentives of the market Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, whose editing is “not getting better.” We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who fixes all of her errors.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: PAC-3 MSE: Enabling a Hardened Defense against Maritime Threats
To succeed in a multi-domain environment, sailors need more advanced options to stay ahead of evolving threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
