Ukraine loan gains steam in GOP

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Mar 19, 2024 View in browser
 
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DRIVING THE DAY

HAPPY ANNIVERSARY — Today marks the 45th anniversary of live gavel-to-gavel TV coverage of Congress, with C-SPAN first broadcasting the House of Representatives on March 19, 1979. More from C-SPAN on the history of the network

BIG SWING — “Trump is making the Jan. 6 attack a cornerstone of his bid for the White House,” by AP’s Lisa Mascaro, Mary Clare Jalonick and Jill Colvin: “Taken together, it’s what those who study authoritarian regimes warn is a classic case of what’s called consolidation — where the state apparatus is being transformed around a singular figure, in this case [DONALD] TRUMP.”

Lindsey Graham talks during a hearing.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) hinted at this new strategy toward Ukraine yesterday. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

THE GOP’S LOAN RANGERS — Last night, Speaker MIKE JOHNSON and the White House notched a deal on Homeland Security funding, putting the last six 2024 approps bills on a glide path to passage in the coming days. You can read more on that below, but we want to turn instead to the next big Hill funding fight — over aid to Ukraine.

Hill Republicans have been twisting themselves in knots on the issue for months now, with defense hawks determined not to let VLADIMIR PUTIN overtake Kyiv pitted against MAGA conservatives who reject the notion of sending money abroad when the U.S. border is still in shambles and the debt tops $34 trillion.

But behind the scenes, Republicans trying to straddle those competing pressures are starting to coalesce around a potential solution — one that takes a page straight from Trump.

Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) hinted at this new strategy yesterday, posting online that he floated the prospect of giving Ukraine a “no-interest, waivable loan” during a meeting in Kyiv with Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY. Trump, you’ll recall, has recently championed changing all foreign aid into loans.

But Graham isn’t the only one considering the loan option. In the House, we hear, some of Ukraine’s Republican defenders are buying into this idea as well and have shopped it to Johnson. The speaker told them to put a proposal together, test the waters with their GOP colleagues and then — if the conference approves — perhaps they’ll pursue it.

The thinking goes something like this: While President JOE BIDEN has asked for $60 billion for Ukraine, most of that money — $48 billion — would get pumped right back into America’s defense industrial base. Much of that weaponry, of course, would eventually get shipped to Ukraine. But, technically, the money would support American jobs and build capacity for the U.S. arsenal.

That leaves only $12 billion going directly to Ukraine. Taking that sum and making it a low- or no-interest loan of some sort, these Republicans argue, would (1) appease Trump and keep the base happy, and (2) finally get desperately needed help to the front lines.

This is all, of course, extremely tentative. We’re told some Republicans are in touch with Trump’s orbit to see if they can get the former president to approve of this idea — or at least, not try to kill it flat out. If so, Republicans could try to chalk up the package as a win-win: support for America’s defense industry and a new precedent for giving foreign assistance as a loan, not a gift, as demanded by their presumptive nominee.

Whether Democrats go along with the plan is an open question. Some have objected to the loan notion in the past, and even Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL pooh-poohed the idea last week, suggesting it would take too long to pass a House bill and get aid out the door.

But Republicans think they’ll eventually buy in. “Democrats from the White House on down are very keen on Ukraine aid,” one senior House GOP aide tells Playbook. “I think they’re willing to take it as it comes.” That goes doubly for McConnell.

Making the loans “waivable,” as Graham suggests, could also ease some of the anxieties — call it a jumbo PPP loan for our friends in Kyiv, perhaps, one that won’t have to be repaid under certain conditions.

We called up a pretty damn senior Democrat last night to get some reaction to the idea and what we heard was interesting: Democrats, this person said, want to find a solution for Ukraine, and they’re willing to engage in conversations if it means moving the ball forward.

“Everyone is willing to talk if people are acting in good faith,” the person said. “The question is: Are they trying to get to some real solution?”

We’ll just note: That’s not a “no.”

Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

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ELECTION DAY IN AMERICA — Voters head to the polls today for primaries in Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Kansas and Ohio. But with Biden and Trump already having notched their parties’ presumptive nominations, we’ll instead be watching some down-ballot races that could have an impact on who controls Congress.

One big theme to keep in mind: The power of Trump’s endorsement will once again be tested today, as our senior campaign and election editor Steven Shepard points out in a story that just posted.

In Ohio: In perhaps the messiest Senate primary of the year, we’ll figure out if Trump’s blessing of BERNIE MORENO is enough to save him from a late-breaking scandal of sorts. As Ally Mutnick and Myah Ward report, state Sen. MATT DOLAN has been surging late in the race, driving straight down the establishment lane, and his allies have been making hay out of last week’s AP story about a Moreno email account being used to solicit “young guys to have fun with” on an adult website. Moreno has blamed an intern for the message; a pro-Dolan super PAC is calling him “creepy” and “damaged goods” all the same. Notably, both MAGA world and Democrats hoping to protect incumbent SHERROD BROWN are rooting for Moreno.

We’re also watching the primary in OH-09, where Republicans are hoping they can finally knock off veteran Democrat MARCY KAPTUR after her controversial 2022 rival, J.R. MAJEWSKI, left the GOP primary earlier this month. Trump and Johnson have aligned behind state Rep. DEREK MERRIN over former state legislator CRAIG RIEDEL.

In California: In the CA-20 special election, state Rep. VINCE FONG has the backing of Trump and the man he’s hoping to replace, former Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY. But we’ll see if that’s enough to get Fong over 50% and out of a May runoff against a likely GOP opponent. Johnson, for one, could sure use his vote sooner rather than later.

And in Illinois: In downstate IL-12, GOP Rep. MIKE BOST is facing a challenge from MAGA hardliner DARREN BAILEY, the state’s failed 2022 gubernatorial nominee, who has the backing of Trump ally Rep. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.) and has slammed Bost for his close relationship with McCarthy. But it’s Bost who has the Trump endorsement, thanks to a discreet lobbying campaign from Johnson and NRCC Chair RICHARD HUDSON (R-N.C.).

Up in Chicago, the one big Democratic race to watch tonight is in IL-07, where 82-year-old incumbent DANNY DAVIS is facing a strong challenge from activist KINA COLLINS. Steve calls it “the latest Democratic skirmish over the Israel-Hamas war, with the most prominent pro-Israel group seeking to exert its influence [on Davis’ behalf] … after floundering in a similar race in Southern California earlier this month.”

 

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WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

On the Hill

The Senate will meet at 3 p.m. to take up the judicial nomination of NICOLE BERNE, with a cloture vote at 5:30 p.m.

The House will meet at noon and at 2 p.m. will take up a variety of bills, with first and last votes expected at 6:30 p.m. The Foreign Affairs Committee will hold a hearing on the Biden administration’s withdrawal from Afghanistan at 1 p.m.

3 things to watch …

  1. Former Trump aide PETER NAVARRO is heading to prison imminently after the Supreme Court rejected a final appeal yesterday. He’ll be the first person to be incarcerated on contempt of Congress charges since members of the “Hollywood Ten” were jailed in 1950 for refusing to ID alleged Communists to the House Un-American Activities Committee. Fellow ex-Trump aide STEVE BANNON, who is now appealing his contempt conviction, might not be far behind.
  2. The push for action on TikTok continues in the Senate, where today and tomorrow senior officials from the Justice Department and other agencies will brief lawmakers in hopes of advancing legislation cracking down on the Chinese-owned app, Bloomberg’s Chris Strohm, Daniel Flatley, and Alex Barinka scooped. Leading the effort is Deputy AG LISA MONACO, who is up against a barrage of lobbying from TikTok and its parent company, ByteDance.
  3. Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER continues to take flak on the right for his criticism of Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU — including from Trump (more on that below). But key figures of the Israeli left and center are speaking up on his behalf. Two former PMs — EHUD BARAK and EHUD OLMERT — both spoke out in recent days to praise Schumer. “Thank God we have friends like President Biden and yourself who have the honesty to say things which need to be said,” Olmert wrote yesterday.

At the White House

Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief in the morning, before traveling to Reno, Nevada, where he is scheduled to participate in a campaign event. Later, in Las Vegas, the president will deliver remarks on lowering costs. In the evening, Biden will travel to Phoenix, where he will attend a campaign event. Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will gaggle aboard Air Force One en route to Reno.

More on Biden’s Nevada trip: “Biden starts making his affordable housing pitch on the trail,” by Adam Cancryn: “The president on Tuesday will call for greater action to lower the cost of housing, using a speech in Nevada to spotlight new proposals he argues would make it easier for Americans to find and afford a home.”

VP KAMALA HARRIS will receive briefings and conduct internal meetings with staff.

 

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PLAYBOOK READS

CONGRESS

President Joe Biden and House Speaker Mike Johnson depart the Annual Friends of Ireland luncheon on Capitol Hill.

The Homeland Security funding deal follows a frenetic two-day back-and-forth between Speaker Mike Johnson and the White House. | Jonah Elkowitz for POLITICO

MORE ON THE SPENDING DEAL — Negotiators have struck a bipartisan deal on a full-year funding package for DHS, allowing congressional leaders to put the finishing touches on a broader spending agreement in the coming days, Caitlin Emma and Jennifer Scholtes report.

The nitty-gritty: “A short stopgap funding patch could still be needed to head off a partial government shutdown at midnight Saturday morning for the Pentagon and many key non-defense agencies, since bill text is likely to take at least another day to finalize,” Caitlin and Jennifer note.

The timeline: “Legislative text of the six-bill funding bundle is now expected late Tuesday or Wednesday, potentially teeing up a House vote on Friday at the earliest, if Speaker Mike Johnson adheres to a pledge to give Republicans 72 hours to review legislative text.”

The backstory: The accord follows a frenetic two-day back-and-forth between Johnson and the White House. On Sunday, we scooped in Playbook that spending talks were held up by the disagreement over DHS funding. Yesterday, we were first to report that the discussions had moved toward a full-year funding bill rather than another continuing resolution.

Huge deal: Funding negotiators have also landed an agreement to extend by one year the President’s Emergency Plan for Aid Relief, “a widely hailed program to counter HIV and AIDS worldwide that was imperiled due to GOP concerns that it was indirectly subsidizing abortions,” Semafor’s Joseph Zeballos-Roig and Kadia Goba scooped.

More top reads:

  • Trump in an appearance on SEB GORKA’s show yesterday accused Schumer of being “anti-Israel” in an effort to garner support. “Any Jewish person that votes for Democrats hates their religion, they hate everything about Israel, and they should be ashamed of themselves,” Trump continued. Schumer responded sharply: “Trump is making highly partisan and hateful rants. I am working in a bipartisan way to ensure the US-Israeli relationship sustains for generations to come, buoyed by peace in the Middle East.”
  • Both parties in the Senate are starting to elevate their younger class, a “welcome development for the stodgy” chamber, our colleagues Ursula Perano and Burgess Everett write this morning. “Two Gen X Republicans are already running for the third-ranked post: Sens. JONI ERNST of Iowa, 53, and TOM COTTON of Arkansas, 46. Similar intrigue is building on the Democratic side, where a retirement will open up the parallel leadership job next year: Sens. AMY KLOBUCHAR of Minnesota, 63, and CORY BOOKER of New Jersey, 54, are being discussed as contenders while several others eye a move up.”
  • Yowza: “Jan. 6 defendant got 2 congressional internships after she allegedly breached the building,” by Kyle Cheney

TRUMP CARDS

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump arrives to speak at his Super Tuesday election night watch party.

Judge Juan Merchan ruled yesterday that the infamous Donald Trump “Access Hollywood” tape cannot be shown to the jury during his hush-money trial. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO

THE TRIALS — Three of the remaining trials facing Trump saw interesting action yesterday, with judges issuing surprising rulings and long-shot requests coming in from the former president’s legal team …

In Florida: U.S. District Court Judge AILEEN CANNON “issued an unusual order late Monday regarding jury instructions at the end of the trial — even though she has not yet ruled on when the trial will be held, or a host of other issues,” WaPo’s Devlin Barrett reports. Cannon “instructed lawyers to file proposed jury instructions by April 2 on two topics that are related to defense motions to have the indictment dismissed outright.”

In New York: Judge JUAN MERCHAN ruled yesterday that the infamous “Access Hollywood” tape cannot be shown to the jury during the hush-money criminal trial against Trump in New York, AP’s Michael Sisak writes. Merchan “said prosecutors can still question witnesses about the tape, which was made public in the final weeks of Trump’s 2016 White House campaign. But ‘it is not necessary that the tape itself be introduced into evidence or that it be played for the jury,’ the judge said.”

In Georgia: Trump and his co-defendants in the Georgia election subversion case are asking the Fulton County judge overseeing the proceedings for permission to appeal his ruling that allowed DA FANI WILLIS to stay on the case, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Tamar Hallerman reports. In their filing, the defendants said prosecutor NATHAN WADE’s resignation from Willis’ team was “insufficient to cure the appearance of impropriety the Court has determined exists.”

More top reads:

 

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2024 WATCH

VEEPSTAKES — Trump has officially ruled out VIVEK RAMASWAMY as his running mate, instead intending to offer his former adversary a potential Cabinet post — specifically Homeland Security secretary, Bloomberg’s Jennifer Jacobs and Justin Sink report. “Some Trump allies see Ramaswamy as ideal for the job because they say he excels at public speaking and, as an Indian-American son of an immigrant, could neutralize criticism of sweeping immigration restrictions.”

The Cabinet cabal: “Those who have impressed Trump and his team for possible Cabinet roles include another former GOP primary foe, North Dakota Governor DOUG BURGUM, as well as Representative ELISE STEFANIK and former US Trade Representative ROBERT LIGHTHIZER. … Ousted US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is seen as a top candidate to serve as chief of staff.”

CASH DASH — Trump’s reelection operation has “begun to see warning signs that the small-dollar donors who fueled his last run for the White House have slowed their support to the former president this year,” CNBC’s Brian Schwartz reports. “Since late last year, members of Trump’s team have been warned by Republican Party advisors that their small-dollar donor base could be shrinking … Some have even been told there may not be much that the former president or his campaign can do to win back these key donors.”

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a backlash among U.S. lawmakers for opposing the creation of a Palestinian state after the war in Gaza.

President Joe Biden and Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu spoke yesterday for the first time in a month. | Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo

MIDDLE EAST LATEST — Netanyahu is preparing to dispatch a “senior delegation to Washington in the next few days to discuss an alternative strategy to an Israeli ground invasion of Rafah, White House national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN said in briefing with reporters on Monday,” Axios’ Barak Ravid writes.

Earlier in the day, Biden and Netanyahu spoke for the first time in a month, “during which Biden seemingly offered his strongest warnings against an all-out Israeli attack on Rafah,” Alexander Ward and Jonathan Lemire write. “The prospect of fighting in Rafah, Gaza’s southernmost city, was the main focus of the conversation. Sullivan, briefing reporters at the White House after the call, said Biden requested Israel send a team to hear the administration’s concerns about Rafah and brief his aides on their planning.”

On the ground: “Israeli forces raid Gaza City hospital; U.S. confirms death of top Hamas leader,” by WaPo’s Miriam Berger, Louisa Loveluck and Hajar Harb: “The highest-ranking militant commander to be killed in more than five months of war, [MARWAN] ISSA was believed by Israel to have played a central role in Hamas’s day-to-day military operations and to have helped plan its attack on Oct. 7.”

Related read: “Dennis Ross Has Tough Words for Both Sides of the Israel-Hamas War,” by Nahal Toosi for POLITICO Mag: “Israelis need to recognize that ‘you can’t wish the Palestinians away,’ and Palestinians ‘need profound reform.’”

JUDICIARY SQUARE

ALL IN THE FAMILY — Prosecutors in a court filing on Friday said a business associate of JIM BIDEN, the president’s brother, conspired to defraud Medicare alongside an alleged leader of the Colombo crime family, Ben Schreckinger reports. “The government’s accusation is likely to intensify scrutiny of the ties between President Joe Biden’s brother and the associate, Mississippi businessman KEATON LANGSTON. The Justice Department named Langston as a co-conspirator in the ongoing fraud case just three weeks after congressional investigators grilled Jim Biden about his relationship with the Mississippi businessman.”

MORE POLITICS

ONE TO WATCH — “Federal judge unsure about New Jersey AG’s claims on ballot design in Senate race lawsuit,” by Daniel Han in Trenton: “The outcome of that lawsuit could have major implications in the state’s Senate race to replace BOB MENENDEZ, but it could also fundamentally rewrite politics in New Jersey.”

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

Barack Obama paid a visit to Rishi Sunak in London.

Bernie Sanders is a podcaster now.

Eric Adams is facing new allegations of sexual assault, which he denies.

Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s family prompted the cancellation of an awards gala in the late justice’s name after the slate of honorees included the likes of Elon Musk, Martha Stewart, Rupert Murdoch, Michael Milken and Sylvester Stallone.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Spencer Boyer is joining DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group to lead the new national security, defense and aerospace practice. He is the former deputy assistant secretary of Defense for European and NATO policy.

TRANSITIONS — Matthew Tragesser is joining the Heritage Foundation as senior comms manager for media and public relations. He most recently was comms director for Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.). … Sue Hensley, Chad Moutray and Chris Kenny are joining the National Restaurant Association. Hensley will be SVP of member engagement and most recently was EVP of comms and public affairs for the American Trucking Associations. Moutray will be VP of research and knowledge and most recently was chief economist for the National Association of Manufacturers. Kenny will be VP of marketing for the NRA Educational Foundation and most recently led global diversity, inclusion and belonging initiatives at Spotify.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Ed Rollins … Axios’ Kayla CookAnatole JenkinsCarla Frank of the Biden campaign … Tara Dawson McGuinness … ABC’s Pierre Thomas, Katie Bosland Kastens and Van ScottMary Streett … KPMG’s Ian HainlineJohn Gossel … UPS’ Annie (Policastro) Lawrence … Novavax’s Ali Chartan … NBC’s Emma GottliebSarah Pulliam BaileyYujin Lee … ProPublica’s T. Christian MillerJulien Rashid Drew Marrs of Norfolk Southern … Jake WestlinJose Borjon of Akin Gump … Leah Schaefer of Senate Energy and Natural Resources … Jill Abramson … POLITICO’s Betsy BarrowsLynda Bird Johnson Robb (8-0) … former Rep. Mike Coffman (R-Colo.) … Trey Hardin Liz Plank Zach ParkinsonLeah Daniels

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Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.

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