SHUTDOWN SHOWDOWN … MAYBE? Where’s that text? It’s now common knowledge on the Hill that the homeland security spending bill is the last sticking point standing in the way of a last-minute accord on the six contentious spending bills that Congress wants to pass to keep the government from shutting after midnight on Saturday. In their own ways, both the White House and House Republicans have turned that Department of Homeland Security funding plan into a political hot potato at a very late stage in the talks — a risky move that threatens to push the government right up against its deadline. The rest of the fiscal 2024 bills are done, including measures that would fund the Pentagon, major health programs, foreign aid, congressional offices and more. A quick recap: Neither Democrats nor Republicans want a long-term stopgap spending plan for DHS, which would effectively lock Congress into Biden administration policies. But appropriators in both parties backed a stopgap anyway as their fallback option – only to watch the White House reject it. The motivations on Biden’s side: The president is seizing what’s likely his last opportunity to deliver DHS an updated budget before November, lest his hands get tied on new border spending while the GOP turns surging migration into a huge election-year talking point. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre dodged questions at a press conference Monday about the status of negotiations. The House and Senate aren’t back in session until Tuesday evening. "We want to make sure they have the operational funding to do the job they need to be doing. And that is what I can say,” Jean-Pierre said. The hangups between the White House and Republicans appear to include how much money should be appropriated for the border and the administration’s flexibility to pump in new resources if needed, according to two people familiar with the discussions who were granted anonymity to speak candidly. The motivations for the GOP: Republicans don’t want to give Biden too much room to maneuver with new DHS spending on the border. But many of the same conservatives who are clamoring for their leaders to take a stronger hand in the talks – think the dozens of House members, including the Freedom Caucus chair, who wrote to Speaker Mike Johnson on the topic today – are bringing less than full leverage to the table. That’s because these conservatives, who want to see nothing less than the House GOP’s right-leaning H.R. 2 immigration bill attached to the DHS spending plan, typically vote against most funding bills. Their fiscal austerity metric, in an era of divided government, is almost impossible to meet. So as a result, Johnson would almost surely rely on Democratic votes to pass any funding package that can get to the floor this week. Return of the fallback? Even as both sides continue to spar over funding exceptions, there’s another possible outcome: Reverting back to that DHS stopgap plan through the end of September. It all adds up to a muddle that makes a weekend funding lapse look more likely by the hour. Johnson has to give his conference a full 72 hours to review the legislation, per a House rule. If the text of a final deal materializes within the next 24 hours and passes the House by Thursday or Friday, the Senate will require a timing agreement to speed up its votes. That means getting consent from all 100 senators … including famously delay-minded Kentucky GOP Sen. Rand Paul. — Daniella Diaz, with assist from Caitlin Emma and Adam Cancryn
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