| | | | |  | | By Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Sue Allan with Philippe J. Fournier | | Presented by |  | | |
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Welcome to Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it. In today’s edition: → Hogue commission puts party insiders on the spot. → The next frontier in Canada’s not-yet-settled climate debate. → Seen and heard on a long weekend binge on political pods. |  | THREE THINGS WE'RE WATCHING | |
FOREIGN INTERFERENCE COMMISSION — The pace of witness testimony revs up this week at the Hogue commission. Tuesday's hearing could offer rare insight into the inner workings of federal campaigns.
— The campaign reps: Three major-party architects from 2021 will testify tomorrow morning: former Conservative campaign co-chair WALIED SOLIMAN; Liberal national campaign director AZAM ISHMAEL; and former NDP national director ANNE MCGRATH. Under Hogue’s microscope — and cross-examination — the trio is likely to reveal some behind-the-scenes machinations. → A hint of what's to come: Soliman has gone public with his observations from that campaign. He was the Tory rep to the federal Security and Intelligence Threats To Elections (SITE) Task Force, which is built to detect and deter threats (and will have its own spotlight in the days to come). Soliman claimed last year that SITE never raised specific Chinese attempts to influence the election and ignored the CPC's post-campaign assessment. “After the election and before the new government was sworn in, we spent more time providing everything we had to the Task Force and appropriate security channels,” Soliman tweeted in 2023. “We were met with shrugged shoulders and complete ambivalence. It was truly unreal.” — Next up, one at a time: The Hogue commission will hear from former Ontario Cabinet minister MICHAEL CHAN, who has faced — and vehemently denied — allegations he acted improperly in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections. HAN DONG, a two-term MP who quit the Liberal caucus amid accusations of improper dealings with a Chinese diplomat in Toronto, will testify. — Later this week and next: A long list of senior government officials will take their turns in the hot seat. We gave the rundown last week. — Background reading: This is a historical footnote at this point, but former GG DAVID JOHNSTON penned a report on foreign interference last May in his capacity as “special rapporteur.” Johnston recommended against a public inquiry. The opposition howled. After months of negotiations, the government called an inquiry. → More reading: The procedure and House affairs committee published reports on foreign election interference last March and May. Seventy-four witnesses testified, including many who will sit at the public inquiry. → Even more reading: The House ethics committee also published a report on foreign interference last October. Conservatives submitted their own conclusions. The government formally responded in February. | | | | A message from Google: At Google, we know it can be tough keeping your family safe online. So we help make it easier by automatically turning on safety settings for kids and teens. With protections like filtering explicit content with SafeSearch, blocking age-restricted videos on YouTube, and more. To find online safety features for kids and teens, visit:g.co/families | | |
BUDGET DAYS — The Liberal road show continues ahead of April 16.
In the words of VASSY KAPELOS on CTV "Question Period": “It’s full on.” Expect another “17 or so announcements” before Budget Day, she said. On the latest CBC News “At Issue” panel, CHANTAL HÉBERT awarded effort marks for transparency. “It allows people to look and kick the tires of their announcements a lot,” she said. “But sometimes when you kick tires, you realize that they’re flat tires.” — Credit check: Liberals are out to scoop up accolades for headline budget measures — even when a certain other party is claiming to be the real champion of whatever is on the table. Take pharmacare. In February, NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH implored the governing party to make contraceptives free as a first step in a national drug plan. Here's PM JUSTIN TRUDEAU, mic-dropping on X after Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND announced Budget 2024 will include that measure. "Women should be free to choose the contraceptives they need without cost getting in the way," he wrote. "So, we’re making contraceptives free." Jagmeet who? UNPOPULARITY CONTEST — French Prime Minister GABRIEL ATTAL will travel to Canada April 10 to 12. — Briefing note: Attal became PM in January in a surprise move. POLITICO’s CLEA CAULCUTT noted at the time that French President EMMANUEL MACRON’s decision to appoint his former education minister was an attempt to reenergize a flagging presidency ahead of the European election in June. “Attal carries more than just the European campaign on his shoulders,” Caulcutt wrote. “As one of the stars of ‘Génération Macron,’ young politicians who straddle the left-right divide and came to power with the French president, Attal will save or hasten the end of Macronism and its centrist, pro-European political offer.”
|  Gabriel Attal after the handover ceremony, Jan. 9, 2024 in Paris. | Ludovic Marin, Pool via AP | — The latest POLITICO headline: “Macron rattled as EU election defeat looms.” — ICYMI: The NYT took a look at “the world’s unpopular leaders.” On their list with Macron: OLAF SCHOLZ (Germany), YOON SUK YEOL (South Korea), FUMIO KISHIDA (Japan), RISHI SUNAK (U.K.), JOE BIDEN (U.S.), ALEXANDER DE CROO (Belgium) and, of course, JUSTIN TRUDEAU. “Four global issues have driven much of the public’s anger,” GERMAN LOPEZ explained. “Call them the four I’s: inflation, immigration, inequality and incumbency.” — One more from POLITICO: “The starting gun has yet to be fired on the next U.K. election, and yet it’s hard to escape the feeling it’s already over,” ESTHER WEBBER writes from London with potentially another six months before Britain goes to the polls. — Back to France: Trudeau and French President EMMANUEL MACRON spoke Friday. On Tuesday, Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY heads to Paris to meet with STÉPHANE SÉJOURNÉ, France’s minister for Europe and foreign affairs. — Conversation starters: POLITICO’s VICTOR GOURY-LAFFONT wrote a primer on France’s youngest-ever prime minister, in case you want to study up before Attal arrives. | | Where the leaders are | |
— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU and Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND are in the GTA where they will visit a community center and make an announcement related "the well-being of children and childhood development." A media availability will follow their 12:30 p.m. announcement.
— Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE will hold a press conference at 1 p.m. local time in Nanaimo, British Columbia. Later this evening, he will host a rally at the Vancouver Island Conference Centre. — NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH is in Toronto with NDP candidate for Toronto-Danforth CLARE HACKSEL. At 11:30 at Gamble Playground, they will discuss the NDP's call for a national school lunch program. — Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY has no public events on her itinerary. | | DULY NOTED | |
10:30 a.m. The Bank of Canada will release the first quarter issue of the Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations.
We're tracking every major political event of 2024 on a mega-calendar. Send us events and download the calendar yourself for Google and other clients . | | | | A message from Google:   | | | | | FROM THE DESK OF 338CANADA | |
The carbon price increases today — along with rebates — to C$80 from C$65 per metric ton of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions. Here’s POLITICO Canada contributor PHILIPPE J. FOURNIER with hints on the battle ahead:
NEXT IN THE DEBATE — New polling data from the Angus Reid Institute may help to explain the ferocity of Conservative opposition to carbon pricing and to any other attempts to reduce the use of fossil fuels in Canada. Asked about climate change and global warming: Only one third of Conservative Party supporters agreed, “climate change is a fact and is mostly caused by human activities,” which is the overwhelming scientific consensus. Strong majorities of NDP (90 percent), Liberal (89 percent) and Bloc (78 percent) voters agreed with the statement. About half of the Conservative voters polled sided with “climate change is fact and is mostly caused by natural changes and cycles,” a euphemistic statement akin to “but the climate has always been changing.” — Rewind the tape: The Conservative war on carbon pricing features two refrains: The carbon tax increases the already high cost of living for Canadians and it doesn’t work to curb emissions. Last week, more than 200 experts and academics entered the fray with an open letter. Some excerpts: — “Not only does carbon pricing reduce emissions, but it does so at a lower cost than other approaches.” — “Climate change … poses a real threat to Canadians’ economic well-being. For example, it increases the risk and severity of natural disturbances, such as fires, floods, and severe storms. A conservative estimate is that the impacts of climate change will cost our economy at least $35 billion by 2030, and much more in future decades.” — “The price-and-rebate approach provides an incentive to reduce carbon emissions (due to the price), while maintaining most households’ overall purchasing power (due to the rebate).” Poilievre’s spokesperson dismissed the letter as the work of “Trudeau’s so-called experts.” — A read of the tea leaves: The Angus Reid Institute data suggest one could reframe Conservatives opposition to carbon pricing as not just a cost of living issue, but also as distrust of climate science. If you don't believe global warming is a man-made phenomenon, why even try to curb carbon emissions? The Angus Reid Institute’s tables from the poll are available here. | | WHAT WE'RE LISTENING TO | | | 
"I think for some of us, this issue was behind us," Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault said of the carbon pricing debate. | AP | Highlights from a three-day binge of political pods: Hard truth No. 1: Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT confided to Liberal MP NATE ERSKINE-SMITH on “Uncommons” that the Liberal government mistakenly believed debate on their key climate policy was settled. “Carbon pricing was part of the 2015 election and we won. It was one of the issues in 2019 and we won. And it was part of the debate in 2021 and we won. I think for some of us, this issue was behind us. Collectively, people thought, ‘Uh, you know, PIERRE POILIEVRE is talking about this, but I think many people didn’t think it would get traction.” Hard truth No. 2: “Feelings don’t seem to care about facts,” MAX FAWCETT said on an episode of “Real Talk with RYAN JESPERSEN” devoted to fact-checking Poilievre’s “axe the tax” plan. Hopes and wishes: KEVIN PAGE of the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy debated climate politics on Sen. PAMELA WALLIN’s “No Nonsense” pod. The former budget watchdog also admitted he’s crossing his fingers and toes for a rate cut from the Bank of Canada on April 10. The view from the North: On “The Herle Burly,” Northwest Territories Premier R.J. SIMPSON discussed the challenges of getting the ear of Ottawa. Carbon tax, affordability and climate change also come up. Seed money: “We all knew there were going to be some growing pains,” Natural Resources Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON acknowledged on CBC’s “The House” in a feature on the chokepoints in his government’s 2 Billion Trees program. Alberta’s state of play: “West of Centre” with guest host JASON MARKUSOFF explored the dynamics of provincial politics with NAHEED NENSHI atop the list of names likely to become NDP leader: “The frontrunner vs. the Teflon premier.” Money talks: “How far can the federal government go to create rules for the provinces?” CARA STERN asked MIKE MOFFATT on the “Missing Middle” during a conversation on housing and the Housing Accelerator Fund. Moffatt's reply: “The person writing the check should be able to put conditions on that check.” Good luck selling that to the provinces. | | | PROZONE | | |
For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter from ZI-ANN LUM and SUE ALLAN: DANIELLE SMITH is just getting started.
In other news for Pro readers: — Canada updates law to protect ‘sensitive’ sectors from foreign takeover. — USTR's trade barrier report deepens feud with business community. — Fighting extreme heat, countries start low-cost programs. — Climate change may accelerate the world's most powerful ocean current. — Pro Analysis: What you need to know about the global AI safety fight. | | MEDIA ROOM | |
— Manitoba Premier WAB KINEW tells CBC News that he'll take up PM's challenge to find carbon tax alternative.
— The Globe’s ERICA ALINI reports that Canada Revenue Agency will exempt bare trusts from new reporting rules for 2023. — “Two years after the Russian invasion, Ukrainian morale has plummeted,” TIM JUDAH writes in The New York Review of Books. — “The bottom is falling out from beneath the Liberal party,” long-time party volunteer and strategist ANDREW PEREZ wrote in the weekend Star. “The party’s leadership doesn’t appear to have a credible plan to staunch the bleeding.” — JAMES RUBIN, who leads the Global Engagement Center within the U.S. State Department, spoke with POLITICO’s “Power Play” about his attempt to disentangle the propaganda and disinformation that targets the United States and its allies.
| | | PLAYBOOKERS | | |
Birthdays: HBD to the amazing ZI-ANN LUM.
Other April 1 birthdays: FATIMA SYED, WILTON LITTLECHILD (8-0!), DANIELLE SMITH, ROB ANDERS, KEN CHEVELDAYOFF, DENIS PARADIS, DAWN BLACK, DANIEL PAILLÉ, SHIRLEY RENDER, LUCIE LEBLANC, YAROSLAV BARAN, MARK SPIRO and CASANDRA WOOD. Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way. Arrivals: Conservative MP ARPAN KHANNA and his wife SIM are celebrating the arrival of AYVAN, the “newest member of #TeamOxford.” Spotted: Former Harper communications director ANDREW MACDOUGALL, with a suggestion for improving political discourse: “The best thing western society could do would be to walk down to Silicon Valley and unplug everything so we could reset.” Calgary Mayor JYOTI GONDEK, telling Postmedia she may not run again. “The times are not what they were,” she told columnist RICK BELL. BARRY MCLOUGHLIN, celebrating 40 years since hanging out his shingle, Ontario Premier DOUG FORD and Ottawa Mayor MARK SUTCLIFFE, Lego editions.
Watch the mayor’s March 28 breakfast event here. The recipients of decorations to honor outstanding bravery and meritorious service on behalf of KING CHARLES III. Speaking of … his majesty was spotted Sunday at Easter celebrations.
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Britain's King Charles III and Queen Camilla arrive at St. George's Chapel, Windsor Castle, on Sunday. | Hollie Adams/Pool Photo via AP/AP | Media mentions: CBC cameraman GREG BRUCE has retired after a 50-year career. Movers and shakers: The Ontario sunshine list is live. ANIL ARORA retired from Statistics Canada on March 31. The Hill Times has flagged the imminent retirement of STEPHEN LUCAS. The deputy health minister will retire in mid-May after 35 years in the public service. TROY CROSBY, the top procurement official at National Defense is also retiring, the Citizen reports. There are “open opportunities” in the following Governor in Council positions: Parliamentary librarian, chief statistician at Statistics Canada, president of the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, president of the CBC, president of the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission, and many more. BRAMAN THILLAINATHAN has joined Crestview Strategy. … LISA THIBODEAU has been named the editor of The Honest Talk. | | ON THE HILL | |
→ Find House committees here.
→ Keep track of Senate committees here. Parliament returns April 8. | | | TRIVIA | |
Thursday’s answer: STEPHEN HARPER’s final Cabinet included 39 members. Six of them sat in Harper's first Cabinet back in 2006. Props to ROBERT MCDOUGALL for naming the six: ROB NICHOLSON, PETER MACKAY, RONA AMBROSE, DIANE FINLEY, TONY CLEMENT and MAXIME BERNIER.
Today’s question: On what day did Canada’s weather system go metric? Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Writing Playbook Tuesday morning: KYLE DUGGAN. Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage. Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
