| | | | |  | | By Matt Friedman | | Presented by |  | | | Good Wednesday morning! Emerson College released the first public poll that tests how indicted Sen. Bob Menendez would perform if he chooses to run for reelection as an independent. No surprise here: Menendez would be the longest of long shots to win the seat. But what about the spoiler effect? In a general election test against unnamed Democratic and Republican nominees, the Democrat gets 49 percent support, the Republican 42 percent and Menendez gets 9 percent. The poll found that two important New Jersey Democratic constituencies — Black and Hispanic voters — are more likely to vote for Menendez than white voters, at 17 percent to 6 percent. Twenty-four percent of younger voters also would back Menendez. Should these results alarm Democrats? Is a 7-point margin too close in a presidential year?. First, Menendez is the only person named in the three-way match-up. Andy Kim — who the poll also shows has a huge lead for the Democratic nomination over his two longshot rivals — and whoever the Republican nominee is will have a change to build name recognition that Menendez already has. But do independent and third-party candidates poll better than they perform? There aren’t many examples of well-funded statewide independent candidates in New Jersey, but 2009 offers one. Back then, Chris Daggett — who didn’t have Menendez’s name recognition but also didn’t have any of his baggage — surged well into the teens in late election polls against then-Gov. Jon Corzine and Republican challenger Chris Christie. In the end, Daggett got just under 6 percent of the vote. Some Democrats I talked to before Tammy Murphy dropped out were more concerned with Meenedez as a spoiler if Murphy was the party’s nominee. Her campaign inspired so much backlash among Democrats tuned into the process this early that they were concerned about an enthusiasm gap. Kim doesn’t appear to have that problem. Still, even back then most weren’t concerned that a Democrat would lose a statewide election with a presidential race at the top of the ticket. The poll also showed a relatively close presidential race for Blue New Jersey. Read the Emerson press release here and the full results here. (Methodology: 1,000 registered voters, including 408 Democratic primary voters, conducted from March 26 to March 29. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points for the larger sample and 4.8 percentage points for the smaller one). TIPS? FEEDBACK? Email me at mfriedman@politico.com QUOTE OF THE DAY: “While Twitter is now officially known as ‘X,’ given Twitter’s common usage and worldwide saturation into our lexicon, much like Kleenex or Q-Tip, it would be confusing for amici to refer to it as anything else, even if technically inaccurate.” — Attorney Scott Salmon in a Third Circuit amicus brief for Ravi Bhalla, Patricia Campos-Medina and Jerry Speziale opposing county clerks’ attempts to stay Judge Zahid Quraishi’s decision to end the line for the 2024 Democratic primary. HAPPY BIRTHDAY — Alea Couch, Everett Falt, Katherine Landergan WHERE’S MURPHY? — Nothing on his public schedule
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A DAY AT THE OPRA — “Sponsor of bill to revamp public records law does not commit to mid-April vote,” by New Jersey Monitor’s Nikita Biryukov: “Sen. Paul Sarlo said there is no guarantee a bill to revamp the Open Public Records Act will return for votes before both chambers on April 15, adding lawmakers are still drafting amendments after the initial bill met with broad opposition. “There is no commitment at this point in time,” Sarlo (D-Bergen), the bill’s prime Senate sponsor, told reporters Tuesday. “We’re still working with all the advocacy groups on plenty of amendments. Plenty of amendments are being bantered back and forth.” April 15 is the next time the Senate and Assembly are scheduled to have voting sessions. Senate President Nicholas Scutari (D-Union) told reporters two weeks ago that the bill may be amended and come before the Legislature for a final vote in mid-April.”
THE EMPIRE STATE’S NEIGHBOR STRIKES BACK — “'You are not eliminating pollution:' New Jersey strikes back against NYC's congestion pricing plan,” by ABC 7: “A federal judge in Newark will hear oral arguments beginning Wednesday in the State of New Jersey's lawsuit over New York's first-in-the-nation congestion pricing. … New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy said the lawsuit is seeking a full federal impact study on the potential environmental effects of congestion pricing. ‘You are not eliminating pollution, you are just displacing it from Manhattan to New Jersey,’ Murphy told reporters Tuesday.” HEY JUD — “Is NJ's judicial vacancy crisis over? Trials are no longer suspended in any county,” by The Record’s Katie Sobko: “With New Jersey's judicial vacancies at their lowest level since 2019, state Supreme Court Chief Justice Stuart Rabner has ended the suspension of civil and matrimonial trials in Passaic County. The move signals the end of a crisis that created unprecedented gridlock across the Garden State's legal and judicial landscapes. Rabner implemented the moratorium in Passaic County in July 2023 — much as he had done elsewhere — but Monday’s decision means there are now no suspended trials in New Jersey. Rabner said this is because of the recent judicial appointments to the Superior Court in the vicinage. “We respectfully urge that the remaining vacancies in the vicinage be filled and offer to assist the legislative and executive branches with that important concern,” Rabner said. … The state Senate confirmed a dozen new judges at its voting session last month to bring the number of vacancies on the bench to 38, the lowest since before the pandemic.” — “NJ bonded debt sheds $2B — more than 5% year over year — according to new report” —“Gov. Phil Murphy tours Metuchen's Forum Theater to promote NJEDA arts funding”
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THE KIMIDDLE EAST — “After securing New Jersey Senate nomination, Andy Kim calls for permanent cease-fire,” by JewishInsider’s Mark Rod: “Rep. Andy Kim (D-NJ) said that he supports an immediate and permanent cease-fire in the war between Israel and Hamas, days after effectively securing the Democratic nomination for New Jersey’s Senate seat and putting himself on a glide path to the Senate … As recently as February, Kim had remained supportive of Israel’s efforts to defend itself while pushing for greater humanitarian aid and rejecting calls for an immediate and permanent cease-fire. But he announced a shift in his views in an interview on CBS New York on Sunday. ‘I believe we need to be able to bring this violence to a close,’ Kim said. ‘We need to make sure that it’s immediate, that it’s permanent, that we have that bilateral cease-fire that’s able to push this forward and allow for the hostages to get out and surge humanitarian support getting in to save as many lives as possible.’ … Murphy’s withdrawal from the race and Menendez’s minimal chances of reelection are leaving some in the pro-Israel community ‘highly depressed,’ in the words of Ben Chouake, the president of NORPAC, a grassroots pro-Israel group that had been backing Menendez. .... He said that NORPAC would back Menendez if he does ultimately rejoin the Senate race.’
MOENCH MADNESS BRACKETS — “Hudson clerk mulls office block ballots for GOP too,” by New Jersey Globe’s David Wildstein: “Hudson County Clerk Junior Maldonado is considering office block ballots in the Republican primary despite a federal judge’s ruling that the ban on county organization lines applied only to the Democrats. “It’s a consideration,” Maldonado told the New Jersey Globe. ‘If the judge is saying it’s unconstitutional on the Democratic side, I don’t see how it’s constitutional on the Republican side. As a constitutional officer, I have a responsibility to protect all of the people.’ Maldonado texted Hudson County GOP Chairman Jose Arango last night to let him know he might go in that direction. Arango is also the chairman of the New Jersey Republican Chairs Association … and that led to the group’s attorney, Matt Moench, firing off a letter to Maldonado. … ‘As the court correctly points out, the injunction has no effect on the Republican primary elections,’ Moench said. ‘County clerks must continue to use the ballot bracketing system as prescribed by New Jersey statute.’” — “Jersey City council president endorses Bhalla for Menendez’s congressional seat” —“State of flux: NJ Wrestles with Quraishi’s ballot decision” —“Rasmussen: Without county lines, Bhalla vs. Rep. Menendez could go national”
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INZELBUCKS — “State claims Lakewood school aid is fine, blames district for money woes,” by The Asbury Park Press’ Joe Strupp: “The state Department of Education on Monday said that Lakewood Schools do not need more state funding and, instead, should improve management and fiscal responsibility. In a 21-page report responding to a court order, the state determined the district engages in poor fiscal management of special education and transportation, as well as improper auditing practices, while also failing to tax residents enough to meet demands. ‘The pervasive errors and questionable practices in Lakewood’s record-keeping result in the inefficient use of funds,’ the report, signed by Assistant Education Commissioner Cary Booker, said. … The lawsuit was initially filed in 2014 by former Lakewood High School teacher and attorney Arthur Lang and Paul Tractenberg, founder of the Rutgers University Education Law Center. The initial lawsuit claimed that Lakewood was not properly funded by the state because the statewide school funding formula does not take into account the district’s costs associated with transporting nearly 50,000 nonpublic school students and focuses only on the nearly 6,000 public school students.”
BRIGHT-EYED STUDENTS URGED TO TURN AROUND — “More N.J. schools will close before solar eclipse due to worries about kids looking at sun,” by NJ Advance Media’s Tina Kelley: “At least four more New Jersey school districts will dismiss students early Monday due to safety concerns during the solar eclipse. School district leaders said they are worried students will look at the sun without protective glasses or devices and seriously damage their eyes. Some also said they are concerned about traffic dangers at dismissal time when drivers may be distracted by the eclipse. Shore Regional High School District in Monmouth County recently announced it will dismiss students early on Monday, along with the Pennsauken and Cherry Hill school districts in Camden County and Burlington Township in Burlington County.”
| | | | Access New York bill updates and Congressional activity in areas that matter to you, and use our exclusive insights to see what’s on the Albany agenda. Learn more. | | | | | BADLY BEACH — “Bradley Beach police chief gone but mayor-council clash over how to discipline continues,” by The Asbury Park Press’ Ken Serrano: “A Superior Court judge has knocked down an attempt by borough council to take action against disgraced Police Chief Leonard Guida, saying the notice of disciplinary proceedings the council issued during an emergency meeting did not meet legal requirements. But council members intent on having their say on Chief Leonard Guida, whose retirement took effect on March 1, say the battle will continue. … Mayor Larry Fox said continuing to pursue the action doesn't serve the municipality or anybody else. ‘It's just going to create more division in the community,’ he said. Guida was the subject of a damning March 1 report from the Monmouth County Prosecutor's Office spelling out infractions of departmental rules and regulations. The report criticized Guida for violating the civil rights of a Black man in a racial-profiling incident, accosting officers, showing up drunk at a crash scene and other behavior problems, according to the report.” FERRY WARS — “Monmouth County's Belford ferry pact with SeaStreak ruled illegal in NY Waterway appeal,” by The Asbury Park Press’ Kathleen Hopkins: “In a victory for Weehawken-based ferry operator NY Waterway, a panel of appellate judges today struck down Monmouth County's $2 million contract with rival SeaStreak LLC to operate ferry service from the Belford Terminal here to the west side of Manhattan, saying the county's process awarding the contract did not comply with state law. SeaStreak, which also operates ferry service from Highlands and Atlantic Highlands to Manhattan's east side, took over the route in December 2022 from NY Waterway, which had run the service for more than 20 years. … Monmouth County rejected NY Waterway's proposal in 2022, and instead granted the contract to rival SeaStreak, despite SeaStreak’s higher fares and fewer crossings.” PROCTOLOGISTS HAVE UNTIL JUNE 4 TO FILE INDEPENDENT CANDIDACIES — “East Brunswick mayor challenged for third term by fellow doctor,” by MyCentralJersey’s Susan Loyer: “A gynecologist and a podiatrist will face off in November's general election for mayor. The two candidates — Democratic Mayor Brad Cohen and Republican Eugene DeMarzo — are unopposed in their parties' June primary races."
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, the newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world, including WEF in Davos, Milken Global in Beverly Hills, to UNGA in NYC and many more. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | R.I.P. — “Former Atlantic County Executive Richard E. Squires dies at 92” —“After 15 years, Wall affordable housing plan OK'd by judge – just in time to start again” —“Man charged with bias intimidation during Israel-Gaza war protest outside [Teaneck] synagogue” —“Pro-Israeli and pro-Palestinian demonstrators meet at Teaneck intersection” —“Critics slam robotext alleging a plan to ‘flood’ Liberty State Park” —“3 [Gloucester County] sheriff’s officers wounded in N.J. shooting range mishap” —“Sergeant files employment lawsuit against a [Alpine] police department” —“Sale of deserted Playboy Club isn’t a done deal, [Vernon] official says” —“Lawsuit over crash involving hero Jersey City cop that left woman with serious injuries is heading toward trial” | | EVERYTHING ELSE | |
OH OH OH JOE REILLY — “Priest named new president of Seton Hall months after his predecessor sued the school,” by NJ Advance Media’s Tina Kelley: “Msgr. Joseph R. Reilly will be Seton Hall University’s 22nd president, after a vote by the school’s Board of Trustees announced on Tuesday. As Reilly takes the helm of the private Catholic university in South Orange, his predecessor remains in court over the circumstances that led to his sudden departure in July. The school’s previous president, Joseph Nyre, sued the university in February, alleging that the school’s former board chair, as well as others, acted illegally and in violation of accreditation standards.”
—“Beloved N.J. educator could be state’s first-ever National Teacher of the Year”
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